Updated. Thursday Morning. Mid Week Look at the Tropics... Still Looking at Home Grown Trouble From Stalled Frontal Boundary. Waiting on the Atlantic to Be More User Friend for Waves.. A Bit of Hurricane History ...How 1960 Evolved into Hurricane Donna. Old TV Hurricane Footage.
Why do we keep saying HOMEGROWN
CLOSE IN?
Because the tropics aren't friendly far out.
But close in... there is some support.
I listened to Mike today online on Facebook Live.
Such a joy to sit and just listen to him talk.
Can really listen to him talk forever. Really.
If you aren't his Facebook friend ...why aren't you?
He does Facebook Live around 9:19 AM.
Why then?
He's a Super Daddy for his two adorable girls.
He does carpool.... before putting his Weather Cape on ;)
Seriously nothing pressing and nothing much changed.
So enjoyed listening this morning.
As for the old NHC...
Still on nothing for 5 days from the NHC.
I'll update when they decide to change that.
And models keep offering solutions for down the road.
Models aren't really bullish.
Every other run they show something.
Then they take it away.
From www.windy.com Thursday AM
Nothing too organized.
I do think the potential IS there tho for something.
Something may form in the Caribbean.
But have a problem seeing it rip into Texas.
Again it all depends on steering currents later.
But for now everything hooks right into the front.
Everything along the coast hooks right.
That would have to change for me to worry less...
...on NE GOM coast.
You can put this loop into motion.
But what I want to say is this...
...currently and for a while the front is the thing.
The front lies lazily draped across the SE
North Florida.
As we move further into September fronts only get stronger.
Not "WOW OH MY GOD" strong.
But stronger.
I'm worried on East Coast storms obviously.
And Florida juts out into Caribbean saying.
"check out my beaches..."
Watch as that wave makes it into the Caribbean.
See what happens in a few days.
But check out that flow.
And that flow has been set in stone for weeks.
Things do keep reforming around Louisiana.
I note that every day in my head.
But then that front...
Weak systems have become absorbed in the fronts.
But stronger systems will ride the front.
Merge... flooding rain across a large area.
Much depends on how the pattern evolves.
This map repeats in the blog.
It's a great old newspaper map.
1960.
Hurricane Donna.
From Africa to New England and Beyond.
Not a busy season.
But famous for Donna.
Across the whole East Coast!
If you didn't read yesterday's blog.
PLEASE do as it explains in depth what I am saying.
And showing Hurricane Donna as an example.
It's a good example.
Read on to see why.
Nothing expected to form in the next 5 days....
Despite that forecat from the NHC.
Other official sites hint at development.
In lots of places.
It's like they are painting the tropics purple.
What's with that image below?
I love purple as much as the next girl.
But... well it's moving towards late August.
Another week or so...
...things could change...
That said there is a congregation of convection....
...in the GOM close in to the coast.
You can see the image below.
That high is so strong it appears there's an eye in it!
Daily flare ups in the Gulf of Mexico.
Waves riding low South of the High.
I know I have said this for days.
Tedious ... isn't it?
Yet NOAA raises their outlook for a busy season.
Note the area off of South Florida.
The long line...
A Tropical Wave.
The edge of the High.
Down the road I'm concerned on that area....
...close in for homegrown development.
Let me use an example of some Hurricane History.
How and why patterns are important.
Check out this link later:
1960.
Not the busiest year but a year we all remember.
But how did it begin?
July a nice wave gets squashed by a strong high.
Stays alive but suppressed.
Moves Westbound into Central America.
Next comes early late August.
Again a strong high suppressed the Atlantic.
Weak system forms in NE GOM.
Typical... moves up along the coastline.
Now look at 2019...
We've had weather there all July and August.
They keep getting absorbed into the frontal boundary.
Every week a different weak frontal boundary.
1960 Next system.
Another TD3 sort of set up as we had this year.
See... similar in ways.
Weak system off the coast.
Weak frontal boundaries.
Then 1960 moved on a bit.
Late August a strong tropical wave rolls off Africa.
A plane crash happens in a strong thunderstorm.
Bad omen ...
... Donna keeps rolling under the huge high.
Lifts better than System 1...
At some point in late August the high inhales a bit.
And it ends up retracing the tracks of the 2 earlier storms.
Look at the 2 storms that came first above.
You see it's the same pattern.
But later in the season with a stronger reaction.
I am not saying we will have another Donna.
The name has been retired.
But showing you how a pattern develops.
It could have gone through the Keys and continued West.
It could have curved North like Floyd did and missed Florida.
Every storm is different.
But within one year a strong pattern bears watching.
Mike last night posted this video.
I thought on it but wanted to keep the blog short.
It's old black and white.
Miami's own Clark Kent... Ralph Renick
Another view of Donna ...
BUT.......
Remember this is from Miami perspective.
Everything is perspective.
Donna threatened the whole East Coast.
Can you imagine the clean up bill for that today.
Miami, Tampa, Along the SE Coast.
NC.... gains speeds NJ Shore, NY, Long Island.
"still Donna rages on"
New England.
Good luck on that scenario.
Hope it doesn't play out again.
But it has over time so will again.
Used "again" twice as history repeats often.
So back to 2019.
Another person worth watching is Cranky on Twitter
His excellent long read is linked to below:
Cranky explains the players.
It's easy as A B C but....
A B C need to all meet up just right.
Not so easy...
He can make maps and write.
It's all there laid out for ya.
I just can't say yet things will hook up just right.
To create a named system.
Possibilities in the wind.
Another voice worth listening to ...
His site is pay for view.
It's worth a view if you got the money.
If not you can read his thoughts on Twitter.
Been reading Rob more years than I want to admit to ;)
He shows the possible GOM Homegrown Threat below.
These are his thoughts.
I'm not yet convinced this would happen.
But there has been so much rain across Florida.
It's possible it could hook up with a front.
Will it get a name?
Or is it just rain?
It's something I'm watching.
I really don't want to speculate on random models.
Occasionally the GFS shows something possible.
The Euro shows slow change.
Otherwise we have one hurricane anniversary...
....after another.
I'll update tomorrow.
Til then shop....
...enjoy what's left of summer.
Lot's of good end of summer sales.
How long til cooler weather?
Viable fronts?
Currently we have fronts....
...and then they stall out.
And that my friend is potential.
Because home grown trouble happens.
Stay tuned.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps.... sometimes it's hard to say something.
Watching the models for the tropics this time of year.
Is like watching a Taylor Swift music video.
You have to know the backstory...
You need to calm down ...
....because oh oh you need to just stop.
And things will happen.
Don't say I didn't warn ya...
Everyone is writing silly articles...
... someone wrote about 9 hurricanes hitting E Coast
Oh my gosh...you need to calm down.
Can you just not...
Click Bait is poison.
Kind of like Roach Motels ;)
Apparently you need a guide to get her videos.
Kind of like listening to model discussion.
Labels: atlantic, Donna, History, hurricane, life, models, music, tropics, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:44 AM
1 Comments:
Great read! Love the historical analysis of 1960 and Donna.
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