Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

UPDATED 8 PM . 70% African Wave - Invest 96L Models ---- Wednesday and the Tropics. 95L Once Was and 96L Will be BUT... Will it Be Chantal? Time will Tell....


Models coming in for Invest 96L



8 PM
Gone Red...
70%
Models shown in Tweet below.



A tropical depression may form early next week..
According to wording from NHC.
Remember the map above isn't a cone.
It's a zone of formation for 96L
Where the X is ...is not where it's supposed to form....
The Red Grid is where it is supposed to form.

So what do models say?
Let's stick with the basics here.
GFS 2 runs.
Old and new. 
Does it really matter?
Yes and no.
It's far away things will change often.
Both are similar.
It consolidates and crosses PR/VI
Then North closer to Cuba...
...or Bahamas.
Again ends up where the 10% yellow grid is..
...for X95L.
Patterns persist understand?



Now we have the EURO.
It's like BEYONCE... 
Just has one name.

Weaker...
Same basic track.
Ends up in Bahamas on last run.
Next run further North in theory.


Just keep watching.
Be back tomorrow.
For good or bad watching the Dem Debate.
Love politics... it is what it is.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.
Ps... if you didn't read this earlier.
Keep reading some valuable explanations.
Still relevant... not much changed since this morning.
Other than the expected raising of percentages for 96L




2PM


60%
Still waiting for Invest 96L to be official.
You know cigars given out... 
... hype, headlines.
Seriously we just want better data.
The data train ramps up with it's officially an Invest.
Waiting.........

As for current models... 
Mike posted this a while ago.
You get the idea... 
..stronger than 95L




Tropics Wednesday Morning.
Last day of July.
At 8AM NHC said....
10% chance in the 5 day for Invest 95L
50% orange for the Big African Wave 
Note you can connect the dots between the two.
More on that later.
First let's look at what was 95L
Because after 8AM they pulled it.
Always got to stay on top of NHC in Real Time ;)


We see Invest 95L has moved up towards the Bahamas and South Florida. This area is a common breeding ground for July close in development of tropical storms. Sometimes depressions linger and other times a hurricane eventually develops from convection that pulls together around the Bermuda Triangle where the water is warm and weather often gets wild fast. Currently have low expectations but pointing out the convection already off the West Coast of Florida so it seems like a Convection Convention all over Florida.

animate.png (1200×875)

Understand IF this develops it is a real time development of a home grown mess.  Either way it's expected to amp up the normal South Florida convection and we could see more localized flooding and more incredible lightning displays. Nothing new there. The loop below shows the low and has an orange dotted line down near where Invest 95L would be on that last frame.


allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)


Also note the front moving down across the Southeast towards Florida. Boom collides with TD3 and the moisture gets sucked up over Florida. Same thing that happened with TD3. Let me show you below how repetitive this pattern has been so fast this season.  

X Invest 95L today.


TD3 old Cone.


If this doesn't scream out "pattern" to you.
Can't think of anything else that would.



Speaking of something else.
Let's look at our African Wave.

Using Mike's grid from www.spaghettimodels.com


Well organized grids on his page.
Mike can be fun and act silly.
He's extremely logical in his organization of grids.

Purple splotches over the East Atlantic.
Blue Purple over the MDR

Tropical Hazards candy cane red in the Atlantic.
That's the first time we've seen that.
Expect ti to happen often.
Green off of Florida ....
Now look at the water.
Again it's most inviting closer in....
...if the waves manage to get closer in.
We need to watch out.

As for models......

Let's do this visually.
The famous EURO below.


Tuesday the front and remnants of 95L above.
(By the way NRL actually pulled the plug on 95L today)
Waiting for them to put up 96L any minute.


Thursday a more intensified system is in the Bahamas.
Close to where 95L will be tomorrow.
Get the picture?
See the pattern?
Note the most closed off system.
But looks better than 95L.

The pattern progresses.

The infamous GFS

Tuesday.
Less mess from 95L
There's the 96L


Thursday.
GFS has more going on than the EURO.


Bet you want to see Friday right?


Gotta tell you the GFS has been pretty consistent with this system.

Later today most likely........
We will have more models run as it should be 96L by then.

The bottom line here is this....

Today is the day to watch the NHC do it's monitoring of the African Wave. Could Invest 95L make a come back? Yes it could as it has already done so once but again as I said earlier it's a mess of convection for now and nothing more. A mess of convection in the Miami area or other parts of Florida could be problematic as often our afternoon thunderstorms are stronger than Invests or Tropical Depressions so watch your weather apps and experts in real time carefully.

As for the Atlantic Wave now at 50% inching up in percentages slowly it's another one to watch. But again the remnants of 95L end up where TD3 ended up and it's not quite a lock in but looking that way that 96L will also end up playing on the same golf range in the Bermuda Bahamas. Could it go further West or be strong enough to be Chantal ... the answer is yes. Why you ask? Because it hasn't formed yet and it's still a potential storm but the potential for this to become Chantal keeps showing up on models.  I'll update later this afternoon if and when they declare it 96L and we get better models and are better able to analyze it from all angles. The NRL is a great site, but there are so many great sites we use to observe and analyze every cloud, wave and mess of convection in the tropics. We are so lucky. Years back people lived along the coast of Florida or the Carolinas and never knew a tropical wave had wrapped up into a strong hurricane and was coming there way. So be glad for all we have as hurricanes are pretty much the only real natural disaster you can see coming and plan for so start planning for a busy season with hurricanes coming our way, moving up towards fronts that we still see on the maps going into August and where they tango tells the whole story. 


As for me I'm back in North Carolina after a prolonged trip back to South Florida and a few days near the Florida Georgia Line. After a night in Jacksonville Florida we drove on up to Georgia to a part of the world I love a lot. Can't say how much I love the low country and the coast. Spent some time in St. Mary's Georgia Monday where they are still rebuilding the docks destroyed by Hurricane Irma. 




The video below is a bit raucous.
But some people do get that way in Savannah.
Not me... I just wander around and smile.
Sip wine and eat pralines.
Have a late night ice cream....
...and give thanks for being where I feel home.
Conceived in Georgia.
Born in Florida.
Living in North Carolina.
I'm about as Southern as it gets.
Southern Girls know hurricanes well.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me there for real time updates.

Ps... if you like Low Country.
Check out Beaufort, SC.
It's beautiful.... 
Stopped in to get some Espresso.
They make good coffee there.
It's coffee with a view.
If you like coffee and the view check it out!
Pastries and a large menu .....
http://magnoliacafebeaufort.com/

Nothing like the Coast of Carolina.
Where many systems will take aim this year at...
....and hopefully slide by waving.
Because no one wants tropical visitors who come to stay ;)

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:28 AM

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