Updated 10 PM 2 Areas of Interest. Yellow Circle Near Africa - 95L A Wave to Watch. And Another Wave Departing Africa. Will it be Invest 95L. Time Will Tell. Stay Tuned.
Well well.
Look who joined the party.
Wave Train West Bound....
Neither are expected to develop in the short term.
X is where it is now.....
The yellow circle is where it might develop.
Connect the dots ...there's your hurricane tracks for 2019.
Every storm is different.
But the general road West around the High is set for now.
Let's see what happens 3 weeks from now...
A month from now.
12z ECMWF Ensembles continue to show a modest probability of 1-2 tropical cyclones forming in the Atlantic in 5-6 days. Fortunately the long-term pattern does appear to favor more troughing over the Eastern US, but this serves as a reminder that peak hurricane season is upon us. pic.twitter.com/dGdwB1NEys— Tyler Stanfield (@TylerJStanfield) July 30, 2019
For now discussion is below.
The lead wave may develop once it's North of PR.
In the warm waters of the Atlantic...
Note convection is favored N of PR.
What's interesting is naked waves are fun to watch.
With less cloud convection you can see their bones.
If they have bones.
95L has bones.
Will it form?
Keep watching.
See it's bones below.
Looks like those kid's toys.
The ADD toy of the year a few years ago.
Spinners?
Has shape.
Just needs convection to align properly.
Waves like this are long shots.
Fun to watch but no guarantees.
Everyone is watching the new wave off of Africa.
95L having problems getting respect.
Everyone wondering on the new wave.
The ones the models like.
But will they like it tomorrow....
...and the day after?
yeah....
Currently everyone's waiting for waves to develop.
6 weeks from now....
...people may be wishing for them not to develop.
Don't say I didn't warn you on that one!
Anyway... in Savannah.
Husband had business here this morning ...
...and I didn't want to leave.
So spent the night.
Watched the sunset.
Incredible.
I'll update in the morning.
Nice hotel room.
Comfy.
Sweet tropical dreams,
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
& & &
So glad the NHC did this as it was supposed to....
...develop later rather than sooner.
Close in.
Homegrown.
If it does develop.
So everyone can settle down for the next few days.
And watch the African wave train.
I'm in Savannah as we stayed here tonight.
Husband has business here and I'm Southern.
So being in Savannah or Charleston is always...
Southern Girl Heaven
Really
:)
More later...
Good morning from Jacksonville, Florida.
I'm beginning to feel like this is home.
We stop here often on our I95 travels.
It's a good spot to stop.
Close to Savannah....
I digress.
Nothing much has changed with 95L for now.
Convection has died down over night.
Convection should flare up again.
It's not too close to South America to be a problem.
It made it past the shear before the Islands.
It is forecast to move up over the Greater Antilles...
On it's way towards warmer friendlier water.
Greater doesn't mean better it means bigger here.
Let's look at the water temperature around 95L
Why?
Because the water temperature is like fuel in this case.
As I'm in Jax let's show their graphics.
Note the water is hotter near Cuba and Florida.
It's not centered because I didn't have coffee yet.
But snapped it from the TV as my proof I'm here.
Now let's look at 95L
You can see the circular shape of the wave.
It's lacking convection this morning.
Let's keep watching.
It kind of looks nervous to me.
"Oh no... now everyone is watching me"
Performance anxiety perhaps?
:)
Silly mood today.
Please bear withe me.
In truth everyone is really watching the new African Wave.
It has no designation but lots of model support.
Questionable but you see the pattern here.
95L made it across in tact.
The next one will take the same track.
The next one may be stronger.
Last night it looked stronger as seen above.
Let's just wait and watch and not get too nuts.
It's a wave. A wave that made it across.
It's more it's part in the process towards real named storms.
Towards hurricanes
Models for the new wave...
Note it's the same track... west towards the Islands.
Then it lifts WNW then NWish... flirts with landfall.
Note image below.
Small ghost like reflection of 95L on the left.
Kick ass wave on the right coming off of Africa.
In the middle a mediocre wave still hanging in there.
It's a process. I can't say it enough.
The water near Florida and the Bahamas is warmer.
If part of 95L hangs together.
It gets to the waters where 94L were.
And if 96L off the coast of Africa....
(not yet designated but that would be the number)
It will follow the same track....
...but it may be stronger.
New wave off of Africa.
It's officially wave season.
And they all have the same destination.
Our part of the world.
Eventually our area will have to deal with tropical trouble.
It may cruise North towards the Carolinas.
Or slice through the Florida Straits into the GOM.
But you can bank on this being where the action will be.
At least for part of the season.
This is your typical "average" hurricane season.
The mean season as some call it.
These models will repeat often .....
...with some variation.
You can watch 95L come and go.
Play peek a boo.
I need coffee.
I'll update later.
Jax really puts on a show sunset wise...
...it's really South Georgia in Florida.
I call this My Little Pony Sunset.
Or "Ribbons in the Sky Sunset"
Simply beautiful.
Much Love.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:01 AM
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