Wanda. Yellow Circle Seeds an EPAC Storm. Kind of the Story of the Year in the SW Caribbean

 

The hard to see red symbol is Wanda, mixed into that whole cloud mess on the other side of the ocean. It's also kind of hard to notice the yellow on the edge of a beach abiout to jump into the Eastern Pacific that is at 0% chances in the Atlantic.

But if you move on over to the Eastern Pacific part of the NHC Main Pages you will see our little X is healthier and is being given 30% chances of development in there. Actually another yellow circle pops up there on the 5 day as seen below.

This has really been the story of the year on many levels and will be researched by many to see why the East Pacific received so many of the low, westbound waves that normally potentially dangerous SW Caribbean  storms that gave them a longer season than normal. And, when I say that I mean normally as the Atlantic goes into high gear the East Pac slows down, there's a normal ebb and flow of energy and yet this year the seedlings for the dangerous SW Caribbean Storms all slid across the isthmus into the Pacific. 

In general the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season was either STORMY WILD or soooo slow. It had a sputtering sort of nature where everything formed in groups and you can see that by the graphic above. June and early July were busy, whereas later in July and August it was not. Late August and September were busy, though many were "shorties" that barely lasted yet did pump up the number of actual storms we had even if most of you cannot remember their name. Since the beginning of August it's been quiet.  Note if you take away all the blue dots and only look at the orange dashes you'll see we really didn't have such a busy season. It's really a matter of prespective. Quality over quantity and in this case we lucked out as Larry and his friend Sam both stayed out in the Atlantic putting on a colorful show on the satelitte imagery but not thrashing our beaches or drowning out cities so for that we are grateful.  It reminds me a lot of how morse code works, dot, dot, dot, dash, dot, dot ...well you get that if you ever learned Morse Code which I did but I do not really remember; a cute neighbor boy was involved who wanted to ran cables from our houses to each other so we could "talk" when we were young. (He was probably a boy scout now that I think about it)

I digress... because there really isn't much to talk about. If I go to Windy.com I'm prone to watch the images for cold weather and who is going to get some snow.

Why does the blue (really cold air)

stop at the Mason Dixie?

Kentucky gets it but not Tennessee?

Just odd things always amaze me on graphics like this.

But winter is coming.

Tropical storms are not.

So have a great day.

Malls have Christmas decorations up...

.... no real crowds where I live.

But the msuic is nice.

TJ Maxx is a winter wonderful.

Pink Flamingoes are in storage.

It's the sign of the times!!

Not proofing........

....I have a headache.

Wish I was in Key West this morning!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... Where are you spending the holidays? 

Thanksgiving blends into Chanukah (early) this year.

Christmas... flows into New Years Eve.

I know... we haven't even eaten turkey yet for Thanksgiving.

2021 has been on Zoom Zoom time.......so do you have a clue?

Christmas Island - Jimmy Buffett.wmv By the way the locals used to call the small island to the West of Key West, but they developed it and renamed it Sunset Island. But it's really a place...........there's also another one, we have lots of names locals use for things down on the rock. 

UPDATED 11 PM Tropical Storm Dorian. Invest 98 Drama. A Look at Hurricanes Haiti Didn't Kill and the 1893 Sea Isle Hurricane in Georgia.

50 MPH

Still moving Westbound.

So far very steady at 14 MPH Westbound.

Maybe tomorrow things will change.

But I'd think this will stay this way for a bit.

50 MPH... definitely looks stronger.

Earliest arrival of winds...

...find your favorite location.

I know if you live in Florida that looks scary.

Has to battle shear and Haiti when it gets there

Dominican Republic....

Could it stay South of Hispaniola?

It's small.... 

Don't blink.....

Let's see how Dorian is in the morning.

And as for Invest 98L ...

I'll talk on it when it gets a name.

For now it's not bothering anyone.

Though down the road...

Could this be Chantal the Remake?

I went to watch the sunset today...

...outside Savannah by the marsh.

Peaceful, beautiful

Dorian's doing it's thing.

I'm going to sleep.

Let's start over in the morning.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

Overall, thunderstorm/convective envelope of #Dorian is expanding again, getting more circular. Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB are 3.0 and 3.5 respectively, somewhat constrained by time factors - excellent preso from NHC forecaster Jack Beven https://t.co/SRIkClWt07 pic.twitter.com/Rvc2HEkC0A

— Michael Watkins (@watkinstrack) August 26, 2019

This image above really says it all.

Top left near Florida we have Invest 98L

It shape shifted it's way North out over the Gulfstream.

Spoiler Alert the warm waters of there didn't help it much.

It's got convection today.

But it still lacks a closed signature.

Hard to find on the big earthnull image.

You can see the small system that is Dorian.

But you can barely make out Invest 98L

Remember the other day?

I posted an image and said it looked like the Loch Ness Monster.

It still does.

Lines up quite fine doesn't it?

I'm in Savannah.

I'm going to go over to the ocean.

Tybee Island... as close as I can get.

It may be a quiet trip or I'll take a ton of pics.

The reality is... until it does something it is what it is.

I think it is possible for it to develop.

And it's also possible it could bring strong weather far to the North.

Remember we talked on Newfoundland ... time will tell.

Strange things happen in the North Atlantic.

Chantal being a recent example.

Speaking of Canada.

On their big green IR satellite image below.

We see 98L yet....

...the moisture over Mississippi and Alabama.

Is stronger in ways.

Somewhere in that deep moisture plume....

....off the East Coast.

Erin may form.

As for Dorian their map is below.

A great map really.

So much info.

Latest satellite loop of #TS_Dorian - it is showing a fair bit of deep convection (coloured areas), which is necessary for strengthening - he is look the best his best ever. If not for the relatively dry and or dusty air, we would likely be looking at a much more serious cyclone. pic.twitter.com/ivjz9eD1t5

— 268Weather (@268Weather) August 25, 2019

I just want to say a few things here. Everyone likes to look at Haiti and the Dominican Republic as if they were put there by Mother Nature to be a wind break for South Florida. That's really not the way it works and yes the tall mountains there break apart a strong hurricane, but often they reform into enough energy to slam into the Florida Keys or the Florida coast or be pulled North up towards the Carolinas. They are not a guarantee and in this case Dorian is a nice storm but a weak storm and it wouldn't take much to take it apart. We've been to this tropical rodeo before and yet many storms manage to regroup or keep going as if they weren't aware they hit road kill on their way WNW. Georges below is that hurricane that ignored every discussion explaining how it was soon going to pull more to the NW and kept going WNW all the way into Key West, the Gulf of Mexico and the GOM coast so don't tell people hit hard by Georges in Key West not to worry because the mountains in Haiti are high and strong and will kill the storm. They usually do but in this case strong shear might kill it before it gets close enough to slam into the mountains. 

Then there was Jeanne.

A hurricane that looked as if it was on the ropes.

Dying, gasping, looping around in the Atlantic.

Then it found it's groove again and turned WEST.

And slammed into the Florida coast.

Just after Frances slammed into the same part of the coast.

These are just examples.

Dorian isn't Beryl but similar.

Dorian isn't Donna or Georges or Jeanne.

But showing you some weather history.

Not much more I can add.

I have to be somewhere soon.

I have a date with sunset somewhere...

...and visiting some people.

And keep this in mind.... 

... some small storms fall apart and then come back together.

There's a track for Harvey.

It was there then it wasn't there....

....then it was there again.

Weak storms go West often.

Sometimes waiting for their swan song.

It was one hell of a swan song....

I may update later tonight if something happens.

The weather here is almost cool and beautiful.

I was here a few weeks ago.

I thought I was going to pass out.

It was the hottest I can remember it in ages.

But now a cooler wind is blowing.

The sunshine is warm.

Barely any humidity.

Yet storms are off to the East..

Nice.... good to get away and play.

Went to a beautiful program that was set up today.

Good food, nice people, music, dancing.

Gotta go before the sunsets without me.

Thanks for your patience and keep watching ....

Not every storm that forms is meant to be a Cat 4.

Not every storm that forms is a deadly storm.

Each storm is different.

Each storm is beautiful in it's way.

Especially far out over the Atlantic....

...where it can't hurt anyone.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Follow me there for real time information.

Ps... Since I'm here it's a good time to remind you of this storm.

Sorry for any typos... 

... will fix them later.

Truly on a bit of a vacation.

My Ancestors looked a lot like this ...

...they lived in Key West.

They were battling Yellow Fever in 1893...

And often the ship that went to Key West...

...put into port in Savannah.

There was no Miami then...

The damage was severe....

Many died.

Epic bad storm.

Note how similar that track is to Georges...

...except higher up.

Tracing around the high pressure.

Something to think on ... 

...enjoy those weak storms like Dorian.

This is why my Grandma said....

...worry on the storms that go up over the Islands.

Okay, I'm back in my hotel room resting up a bit before going out later. Visiting friends in Savannah and taking a one last "summer vacation" of sorts and figured Invest 9L not doing much yet and with Dorian moving steadily West at 14 MPH today was a good day to get away and check out other things besides the visual imagery.

98L seems bonded to the trough reminding me very much of the other Inves that didn't make it beyond merging with the frontal boundary. Again this is a pattern we have going on and in some ways we are lucky, but as we move towards September we may run out of luck.

As the sun goes down on 98L it is still not a named entity.

You can see it's weak symbol below on the water vapor loop.

Pale Green off the Florida Georgia coast.

Dorian on the other hand has a visible signature.

It basically says "I'm a Tropical Storm!"

King Neptune seems to be staring down at it...

I can hear Neptune saying "it is what it is"

As for Dorian... it's really amazing that Dorian exists as she has been traveling the whole way through a dusty environment. It's a fighter that's for sure. One one level it's weak and small and yet again on another level in theory it wasn't expected to be there. The GFS loved it early on, the EURO ignored it and then they took turns liking it or unfriending it. So much weather drama here. Shear has been just low enough that it has been able to maintain it's balance.

Updated. Thursday Morning. Mid Week Look at the Tropics... Still Looking at Home Grown Trouble From Stalled Frontal Boundary. Waiting on the Atlantic to Be More User Friend for Waves.. A Bit of Hurricane History ...How 1960 Evolved into Hurricane Donna. Old TV Hurricane Footage.

Why do we keep saying HOMEGROWN

CLOSE IN?

Because the tropics aren't friendly far out.

But close in... there is some support.

I listened to Mike today online on Facebook Live.

Such a joy to sit and just listen to him talk.

Can really listen to him talk forever. Really.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/

www.spaghettimodels.com

If you aren't his Facebook friend ...why aren't you?

He does Facebook Live around 9:19 AM.

Why then?

He's a Super Daddy for his two adorable girls.

He does carpool.... before putting his Weather Cape on ;)

Seriously nothing pressing and nothing much changed.

So enjoyed listening this morning.

As for the old NHC...

Still on nothing for 5 days from the NHC.

I'll update when they decide to change that.

And models keep offering solutions for down the road.

Models aren't really bullish.

Every other run they show something.

Then they take it away.

From www.windy.com Thursday AM

Nothing too organized.

I do think the potential IS there tho for something.

Something may form in the Caribbean.

But have a problem seeing it rip into Texas.

Again it all depends on steering currents later.

But for now everything hooks right into the front.

Everything along the coast hooks right.

That would have to change for me to worry less...

...on NE GOM coast.

You can put this loop into motion.

But what I want to say is this...

...currently and for a while the front is the thing.

The front lies lazily draped across the SE

North Florida.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

As we move further into September fronts only get stronger.

Not "WOW OH MY GOD" strong.

But stronger. 

I'm worried on East Coast storms obviously.

And Florida juts out into Caribbean saying.

"check out my beaches..."

Watch as that wave makes it into the Caribbean.

See what happens in a few days.

But check out that flow.

And that flow has been set in stone for weeks.

Things do keep reforming around Louisiana.

I note that every day in my head.

But then that front... 

Weak systems have become absorbed in the fronts.

But stronger systems will ride the front.

Merge... flooding rain across a large area.

Much depends on how the pattern evolves.

This map repeats in the blog.

It's a great old newspaper map.

1960.

Hurricane Donna.

From Africa to New England and Beyond.

Not a busy season.

But famous for Donna.

Across the whole East Coast!

If you didn't read yesterday's blog.

PLEASE do as it explains in depth what I am saying.

And showing Hurricane Donna as an example.

It's a good example. 

Read on to see why.

Nothing expected to form in the next 5 days....

Despite that forecat from the NHC.

Other official sites hint at development.

In lots of places.

It's like they are painting the tropics purple.

What's with that image below?

I love purple as much as the next girl.

But... well it's moving towards late August.

Another week or so...

...things could change...

That said there is a congregation of convection....

...in the GOM close in to the coast.

You can see the image below.

That high is so strong it appears there's an eye in it!

Daily flare ups in the Gulf of Mexico.

Waves riding low South of the High.

I know I have said this for days.

Tedious ... isn't it?

Yet NOAA raises their outlook for a busy season.

Note the area off of South Florida.

The long line... 

A Tropical Wave.

The edge of the High.

Down the road I'm concerned on that area....

...close in for homegrown development.

Let me use an example of some Hurricane History.

How and why patterns are important.

Check out this link later:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_Atlantic_

hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_One

1960.

Not the busiest year but a year we all remember.

But how did it begin?

July a nice wave gets squashed by a strong high.

Stays alive but suppressed.

Moves Westbound into Central America.

Next comes early late August.

Again a strong high suppressed the Atlantic.

Weak system forms in NE GOM.

Typical... moves up along the coastline.

Now look at 2019...

We've had weather there all July and August.

They keep getting absorbed into the frontal boundary.

Every week a different weak frontal boundary.

1960 Next system.

Another TD3 sort of set up as we had this year.

See... similar in ways.

Weak system off the coast.

Weak frontal boundaries.

Then 1960 moved on a bit.

Late August a strong tropical wave rolls off Africa.

A plane crash happens in a strong thunderstorm.

Bad omen ... 

... Donna keeps rolling under the huge high.

Lifts better than System 1... 

At some point in late August the high inhales a bit.

And it ends up retracing the tracks of the 2 earlier storms.

Look at the 2 storms that came first above.

You see it's the same pattern.

But later in the season with a stronger reaction.

I am not saying we will have another Donna.

The name has been retired.

But showing you how a pattern develops.

It could have gone through the Keys and continued West.

It could have curved North like Floyd did and missed Florida.

Every storm is different.

But within one year a strong pattern bears watching.

Mike last night posted this video.

I thought on it but wanted to keep the blog short.

It's old black and white.

Miami's own Clark Kent... Ralph Renick

Another view of Donna ...

BUT.......

Remember this is from Miami perspective.

Everything is perspective.

Donna threatened the whole East Coast.

Can you imagine the clean up bill for that today.

Miami, Tampa, Along the SE Coast.

NC.... gains speeds NJ Shore, NY, Long Island.

"still Donna rages on"

New England.

Good luck on that scenario.

Hope it doesn't play out again.

But it has over time so will again.

Used "again" twice as history repeats often.

So back to 2019.

Another person worth watching is Cranky on Twitter

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy

His excellent long read is linked to below:

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e081419.htm

Cranky explains the players.

It's easy as A B C but.... 

A B C need to all meet up just right.

Not so easy...

He can make maps and write.

It's all there laid out for ya.

I just can't say yet things will hook up just right.

To create a named system.

Possibilities in the wind.

Another voice worth listening to ...

https://twitter.com/crownweather

His site is pay for view.

It's worth a view if you got the money.

If not you can read his thoughts on Twitter.

www.crownweather.com

Been reading Rob more years than I want to admit to ;)

He shows the possible GOM Homegrown Threat below.

These are his thoughts.

I'm not yet convinced this would happen.

But there has been so much rain across Florida.

It's possible it could hook up with a front.

Will it get a name? 

Or is it just rain?

It's something I'm watching.

I really don't want to speculate on random models.

Occasionally the GFS shows something possible.

The Euro shows slow change.

Otherwise we have one hurricane anniversary...

....after another.

I'll update tomorrow.

Til then shop....

...enjoy what's left of summer.

Lot's of good end of summer sales.

How long til cooler weather?

Viable fronts?

Currently we have fronts....

...and then they stall out.

And that my friend is potential.

Because home grown trouble happens.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps.... sometimes it's hard to say something.

Watching the models for the tropics this time of year.

Is like watching a Taylor Swift music video.

You have to know the backstory...

You need to calm down ... 

....because oh oh you need to just stop.

And things will happen.

Don't say I didn't warn ya...

Everyone is writing silly articles...

... someone wrote about 9 hurricanes hitting E Coast

Oh my gosh...you need to calm down.

Can you just not... 

Click Bait is poison.

Kind of like Roach Motels ;)

Apparently you need a guide to get her videos.

Kind of like listening to model discussion.

UPDATED 8 PM . 70% African Wave - Invest 96L Models ---- Wednesday and the Tropics. 95L Once Was and 96L Will be BUT... Will it Be Chantal? Time will Tell....

Models coming in for Invest 96L

8 PM

Gone Red...

70%

Models shown in Tweet below.

First of many rounds of tropical models coming in on #96L, which may threaten the NE Caribbean, possibly even #PuertoRico by early next week. #EyeonTropics pic.twitter.com/PhUvs21MlG

— tom terry (@TTerryWFTV) August 1, 2019

A tropical depression may form early next week..

According to wording from NHC.

Remember the map above isn't a cone.

It's a zone of formation for 96L

Where the X is ...is not where it's supposed to form....

The Red Grid is where it is supposed to form.

So what do models say?

Let's stick with the basics here.

GFS 2 runs.

Old and new. 

Does it really matter?

Yes and no.

It's far away things will change often.

Both are similar.

It consolidates and crosses PR/VI

Then North closer to Cuba...

...or Bahamas.

Again ends up where the 10% yellow grid is..

...for X95L.

Patterns persist understand?

Now we have the EURO.

It's like BEYONCE... 

Just has one name.

Weaker...

Same basic track.

Ends up in Bahamas on last run.

Next run further North in theory.

Just keep watching.

Be back tomorrow.

For good or bad watching the Dem Debate.

Love politics... it is what it is.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

Ps... if you didn't read this earlier.

Keep reading some valuable explanations.

Still relevant... not much changed since this morning.

Other than the expected raising of percentages for 96L

2PM

60%

Still waiting for Invest 96L to be official.

You know cigars given out... 

... hype, headlines.

Seriously we just want better data.

The data train ramps up with it's officially an Invest.

Waiting.........

As for current models... 

Mike posted this a while ago.

You get the idea... 

..stronger than 95L

Tropics Wednesday Morning.

Last day of July.

At 8AM NHC said....

10% chance in the 5 day for Invest 95L

50% orange for the Big African Wave 

Note you can connect the dots between the two.

More on that later.

First let's look at what was 95L

Because after 8AM they pulled it.

Always got to stay on top of NHC in Real Time ;)

We see Invest 95L has moved up towards the Bahamas and South Florida. This area is a common breeding ground for July close in development of tropical storms. Sometimes depressions linger and other times a hurricane eventually develops from convection that pulls together around the Bermuda Triangle where the water is warm and weather often gets wild fast. Currently have low expectations but pointing out the convection already off the West Coast of Florida so it seems like a Convection Convention all over Florida.

Understand IF this develops it is a real time development of a home grown mess.  Either way it's expected to amp up the normal South Florida convection and we could see more localized flooding and more incredible lightning displays. Nothing new there. The loop below shows the low and has an orange dotted line down near where Invest 95L would be on that last frame.

Also note the front moving down across the Southeast towards Florida. Boom collides with TD3 and the moisture gets sucked up over Florida. Same thing that happened with TD3. Let me show you below how repetitive this pattern has been so fast this season.  

X Invest 95L today.

TD3 old Cone.

If this doesn't scream out "pattern" to you.

Can't think of anything else that would.

There is now a 50-50 chance this area to watch develops over the MDR of the Atlantic basin. The Lesser Antilles will need to monitor the progress of this potential tropical cyclone. #tropics pic.twitter.com/e47OJEXTKS

— Hurricane Tracker App (@hurrtrackerapp) July 31, 2019

Speaking of something else.

Let's look at our African Wave.

Using Mike's grid from www.spaghettimodels.com

Well organized grids on his page.

Mike can be fun and act silly.

He's extremely logical in his organization of grids.

Purple splotches over the East Atlantic.

Blue Purple over the MDR

Tropical Hazards candy cane red in the Atlantic.

That's the first time we've seen that.

Expect ti to happen often.

Green off of Florida ....

Now look at the water.

Again it's most inviting closer in....

...if the waves manage to get closer in.

We need to watch out.

As for models......

Let's do this visually.

The famous EURO below.

Tuesday the front and remnants of 95L above.

(By the way NRL actually pulled the plug on 95L today)

Waiting for them to put up 96L any minute.

Thursday a more intensified system is in the Bahamas.

Close to where 95L will be tomorrow.

Get the picture?

See the pattern?

Note the most closed off system.

But looks better than 95L.

The pattern progresses.

The infamous GFS

Tuesday.

Less mess from 95L

There's the 96L

Thursday.

GFS has more going on than the EURO.

Bet you want to see Friday right?

Gotta tell you the GFS has been pretty consistent with this system.

Later today most likely........

We will have more models run as it should be 96L by then.

The bottom line here is this....

Today is the day to watch the NHC do it's monitoring of the African Wave. Could Invest 95L make a come back? Yes it could as it has already done so once but again as I said earlier it's a mess of convection for now and nothing more. A mess of convection in the Miami area or other parts of Florida could be problematic as often our afternoon thunderstorms are stronger than Invests or Tropical Depressions so watch your weather apps and experts in real time carefully.

As for the Atlantic Wave now at 50% inching up in percentages slowly it's another one to watch. But again the remnants of 95L end up where TD3 ended up and it's not quite a lock in but looking that way that 96L will also end up playing on the same golf range in the Bermuda Bahamas. Could it go further West or be strong enough to be Chantal ... the answer is yes. Why you ask? Because it hasn't formed yet and it's still a potential storm but the potential for this to become Chantal keeps showing up on models.  I'll update later this afternoon if and when they declare it 96L and we get better models and are better able to analyze it from all angles. The NRL is a great site, but there are so many great sites we use to observe and analyze every cloud, wave and mess of convection in the tropics. We are so lucky. Years back people lived along the coast of Florida or the Carolinas and never knew a tropical wave had wrapped up into a strong hurricane and was coming there way. So be glad for all we have as hurricanes are pretty much the only real natural disaster you can see coming and plan for so start planning for a busy season with hurricanes coming our way, moving up towards fronts that we still see on the maps going into August and where they tango tells the whole story. 

As for me I'm back in North Carolina after a prolonged trip back to South Florida and a few days near the Florida Georgia Line. After a night in Jacksonville Florida we drove on up to Georgia to a part of the world I love a lot. Can't say how much I love the low country and the coast. Spent some time in St. Mary's Georgia Monday where they are still rebuilding the docks destroyed by Hurricane Irma. 

Again St Mary’s #Georgia still rebuilding the dock they lost in #Hurricane #irma pic.twitter.com/6G9OdngLhv

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) July 31, 2019

The video below is a bit raucous.

But some people do get that way in Savannah.

Not me... I just wander around and smile.

Sip wine and eat pralines.

Have a late night ice cream....

...and give thanks for being where I feel home.

Conceived in Georgia.

Born in Florida.

Living in North Carolina.

I'm about as Southern as it gets.

Southern Girls know hurricanes well.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Follow me there for real time updates.

Ps... if you like Low Country.

Check out Beaufort, SC.

It's beautiful.... 

Stopped in to get some Espresso.

They make good coffee there.

It's coffee with a view.

If you like coffee and the view check it out!

Pastries and a large menu .....

http://magnoliacafebeaufort.com/

Nothing like the Coast of Carolina.

Where many systems will take aim this year at...

....and hopefully slide by waving.

Because no one wants tropical visitors who come to stay ;)