A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, September 12, 2019
Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Advisories (from Invest 95L) Humberto Next Name Up. Link to #HURRICANEMAN Video from Hurricane Dorian @icyclone
Potential means they feel a Cyclone can form...
...and it's close enough they need to issue information.
Understand everyone from Raleigh to the Mobile, Alabama and other inland cities have the probability, even if remote, of having Tropical Storm force winds. So don't ignore it, it has real potential. And not to beat a horse ... the system that may form behind it also have potential to trace this same track according to the models. The end of this Tropical Drama has not been written yet so do not write it off as just a messy blob. The NHC doesn't take posting PTC advisories lightly. Note Grand Bahama IS in this cone especially Freeport Bimini just off of the South Florida coast. That is why I have been so concerned people get money to those who are helping NOW because the season is far from over.
Interactive 5 Day Cone above.
And this track is preliminary.
Many models take this all the way up the coast.
So stay tuned.
It's not over til it's over.
Currently it shows landfall.
Further up the Florida Coast.
You know like Dorian 2...
Dorian 3 is due in next week possibly.
Getting busy in the tropics.
Please read the previous blog.
I wrote it this afternoon at 3:30 PM.
I wanted to keep this new for the new PTC9
All my thoughts on messy models are in the previous post.
Be back later,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps.. Never turn your back on a cylone.
Remember when many wrote Dorian off early on.
Too small, nothing there....
...and then BAMN Cat 5 185 MPH WINDS.
So here's hoping you never see that.
If you want to know what it's like.
Posting the link here to @icyclone youtube he posted.
6 PM UPDATE. New Wave By Africa Officially a Yellow Circle on NHC Map. Tropics Monday... Models for 94L & Wave Coming Off Africa.. Clean UP After Dorian HUGE. BEGGING YOU TO HELP THE BAHAMAS. Why I'm Begging? Read the Whole Blog. Where's WE ARE THE WORLD When WE NEED THEM??
Two big Upper Level Lows.
Almost working in tandem.
Moving South....
...pushing down into the Tropics.
Post Dorian and Gabrielle departure..
That wake I talked on below in the morning blog.
Models......
Note the wide variance in solutions.
Wider than that NHC Cone that covered Florida.
I will tell you models paint bad scenarios.
But it's early and they are long range models.
And they flip around a bit from run to run.
I'm not going to show them
Basically one model moves it slower, one moves it faster. We are still not 100% which system the models are developing so talk on too many waves in the basin let's wait til we get a better feel for the new wave, see what the old wave can do and wait to see the next few model runs. The general tendency in the tropics is for a wave to develop near 50 to 60 West, that's been the Go Zone all Season and on approach to the Islands we either have a real named storm or one forming. The storm goes through the Islands or clips the top of them much as Dorian did the Virgin Islands but there's lot of wiggle room to either try and thread that Mona Passage Mother Nature is obsessed with or lift through the PR/VI area once again. I know I don't want to believe it either but patterns persist. The difference is the recent passage of a historic hurricane and while the ocean is receptive again the system has to get past the areas you can see on the loop way below. Choppy waters as the wave behind Dorian and Gabrielle leave the Atlantic in a state of flux until it resets to a clean black board.
Just to the North of the Greater Antilles and PR/VI there is an area where the storm could deepen and approach the Bahamas though in this case it could head more towards the Turks but there is no way of knowing for sure because it's too soon. In general one very bad scenario takes aim at Florida and then pulls North doing that I95 Crawl that Dorian didn't so while another model keeps it off the coast as an Intense storm coming precariously close to the East Coast and New England.
Again models come and go and change in real time as things actually develop. Shear can be somewhere today and gone in a few days. Dorian went from a single thunderstorm in a nice pocket to a developed Tropical Storm, Hurricane and then a small hurricane and just before Grand Bahama it turned intense fast as small hurricanes are prone to do and the NHC really missed the extend of RI that went on; in their defense who could at this time in history really predict that perfectly?
Red NO.
Green GO.
If a Hurricane gets N of PR...
... it's where Dorian came together.
Shear tendencies flow often.
So that can change.
Could history repeat?
So let's let the new wave ride a bit and settle into the water. Let's see what Invest 94L has got and if it gets far enough West to develop a bit. And we can worry tomorrow and the day after tomorrow on what the models say.... Just keep those hurricane supplies on hand, follow the NHC and your local NWS and rely on your favorite weather people who have given you the best advice in the past. We are at the Peak of the Season, Prime Time Hurricane Season and if it's gonna happen by Africa now is the time for it to happen. In general we worry more this year closer in for more rapid development, sad but true. Please give to Bahamas Rescue relief and do what you can please, they need it and they need it yesterday. Watch carefully the video at the very bottom of today's blog as she tells it better than any of us can ever. www.redcross.com and if you ever went on even one Bahama cruise know those really wonderful people who worked in the markets, the stores, the hotels, restaurants are the ones who died, lost loved ones even if they survived and they need you now.
You can see Gabrielle top right leaving.
Everything follows getting pulled into the wake.
The Atlantic needs to calm down a bit.
And by the time the new wave gets to the Islands.
The environment should be more welcoming.
Sad but true.
Do what you can now...
And closer in to Florida.
Keep watching that area off the coast.
Moving closer.
But helping make sense of it all is not always easy.
So as Alanis sings isn't it ironic..... the models tried hard to latch onto the next monster storm to move towards our world and threaten the Islands, Bahamas and possibly the whole East Coast again and they couldn't get it right. Well unless 94L pops up fast into more than what it is and blows up in our face the way Dorian did and makes a run at the East Coast. Well or slip slides into the Caribbean and aims at the Gulf of Mexico but it's more logical it was a dud run of the models that had the NHC introduce 94L with 70% red chances and then it turns out it was nothing more than a red herring for the real wave behind it that is forecast to do bad things to places we don't want to have even one drop of rain for a little while as they are not even near trying to clean up yet.. We can't even get a real death toll and may never get a finite number on the people who died as storm surge washed over a small island at sea level where many wonderful people lived in small poorly built homes that got washed away out to sea... only their cars floating back to the ground after the storm surge moved on... slowly.
I'm serious. Sucks for the Bahamas, no other way to say it and having grown up in South Florida many of my friends came from the Bahamas and they are some of the nicest, kindest people you will ever meet. But not much of a government and no one seems in charge of this massive recovery process and I mean recovering bodies, finding food, helping them out ...
I won't kid you this is a mean hurricane season and it's not going to get any easier as it is what is called a backloaded hurricane season ... one forecast to go long and deep into October or even November. So the thought that any tropical storm let along a hurricane could trace over the places slammed by Dorian before we even can get aid in there or help the survivors or bury the dead is horrific and boggles the mind. But it happens. And anything you can do to help people there is huge.
Bottom like here is this... we aren't sure really. Many believe 94L tries to form and it is possible as it does have some spin, some sense of rotation and it's been persistent yet it becomes overwhelmed with the larger, stronger wave behind and gets taken over, eaten, gobbled up and the big wave behind only gets stronger.
Trying to use humor here...
...to defuse panic.
There was a lot of panic the other day.
Models showed a hurricane...
moving up I95..
Wiping out the East Coast.
Thankfully we moved back from that ledge.
And again ...again.... we come back to here.
Maybe.
Models change often.
And have problems with multiple systems.
NHC said 70% on 94L
Now they are walking it back 10% at a time.
Waiting on a new circle by Africa soon.
That's one to watch.
But never count out close in development.
Homegrown somewhere.
There is ONE BOTTOM LINE TODAY.
Track of the year...
Classic Hurricane Season.
Dangerous.
And NC is rebuilding.
They really need help.
REDCROSS helping...
Bahamas....... no words.
Areas totally gone.
Only the slabs remain from where homes were...
And more than 43 people dead.
Trust me on that.
Bahamas can't even get a death toll.
Not cleaning up bodies.
Watched one refugee after another being interviewed in FLL, RDU, JFK all being brought over by relatives in the USA and they say the same thing... over and over... dead bodies everywhere, rotting in the sun... one lady said she tried to cover them but there isn't much cloth around to cover them with as everything is wiped away. All lost family members or best friends or co workers or neighbors... miraculously during the long eye got to a few of the strong government buildings, huddled together with one bathroom and no food and then the storm left and they saw the aftermath... horrific. And there is no concert or big celebrity so far that has come forward to make some big relief effort; not yet anyway just Churches and Chabad and Red Cross... and Salvation Army (God Bless them all) and they need your help. Nice to say you are going to send them old clothes but there is nowhere to store them to be honest, they need money honey. They need money. They need to get the injured and survivors out of the Bahamas now. Or set up food and clothing and help in the few huge buildings built to survive a Cat 5 and the good news is those places did survive. @icyclone got to one of those buildings during the eye and that's how he survived. That's how others did who lived near by but the people too far away got swept away out to sea. They need water even though they are surrounded by the ocean...they need water and food. Send money to large charities that can do this even in their sleep and know what they need most and have ways to get it to them. They need water, food and medical supplies, shelters... they need money honey.
Chiante Russell and her family were on the Great Abaco Island in The Bahamas in their home and a shelter when Hurricane Dorian decimated the Abaco Islands as a Category 5 Hurricane. Her family survived. Hear her harrowing story. #HurricaneDorian#Dorian@BN9pic.twitter.com/Zj0vFtvoyL
UPDATED 9 AM...Dorian Coastal Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina ALL in Danger... Models Tropics. Models Coming into Agreement. SC/NC Landfall For Dorian Possible. GA Gets Impacts as Does VA
Dorian is currently down by Daytona Beach.
But it's not exactly moving like a race car.
The sounds are there but not the speed.
The good news is it is picking up speed.
And moving steadily up along the coastline.
Offshore, tracing the coast.
NHC Cone traces the coast ...
like way a child outlines with black crayon.
Remember when you all did that?
Kids do it.
Dorian is doing it.
Any wiggle or joggle brings the eye over the shoreline.
But understand winds are not fluid with the NHC cone.
You can get much stronger gusts in a squall near the eye wall.
So even if you are 20 miles inland....
....there is no reason to feel safe.
Tornadoes and flooding..
happen way outside the cone.
We learned that in Floyd, Florence...
Irma and Matthew.
Always happens.
The cone is a guide and changes by degrees.
Remember that.
I love the other cone shown below.
This is interactive and takes impacts into consideration.
Local info for all the cities near or in the cone.
I'll update around Mid Day with Totally New Blog.
Wrote long last night around Midnight
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED.
Dorian may STRENGTHEN.
NHC Discussion says..
MOVING BETWEEN NW and NNW.
Every degree West makes a difference.
And it's traversing Low Country.
This beautiful marshy area begins..
North Florida into Georgia.
South Carolina and up a bit into North Carolina.
In the path of Dorian.
And that's a big problem.
I don't see the NNW movement.
The eye is on radar.
It's a huge eye.
This map is my map for areas of concern.
Kure Beach is a point within it.
I used it to bring the map up.
From Pawley's to Kure I'm worried.
Closer up.
This area could get a landfall.
I'm not saying it would.
I'm saying it could.
The NHC Cone is just off shore.
Warnings are up and flash flood concerns are there.
Mike is great at knowing what people want.
What people need.
He has watches and warnings up..
...including inland before the cone.
The Cone is a con.
It's a good tool that gives you a visual feel ...
...but it's nudged in any direction a bit on every advisory.
People treat it as if it's carved in granite.
Models wiggle.
The hurricane misbehaves.
Then the cone is jiggled this way or that.
In the end the Hurricane wins.
The hurricane always does what it will.
A front approaches...
A high builds in....
A hurricane responds.
Caught on the flow but not totally.
Discussion below.
Ragged huge eye.
Intensity could be generous.
There words, mine are on Twitter.
I don't feel the winds are there...
...but will go with it.
Does it really matter?
Dorian finally moved again.
Steering currents should take the core near
"or possibly over, the coast of South and North Carolina.
That discussion is translated as...
"low confidence"
Models below.
In good agreement.
I mean this with total respect for NHC.
But with models like that...
..anyone could draw a cone.
Let's see how things change in the morning.
Best news of the nite is Josh is alive.
@icyclone can chase another day.
And Bahamas need help.
Lots and lots of help.
The beaches of Carolinas will need help.
Inland flooding is a problem always.
I'll go into that tomorrow.
This was more marking time.
Thinking outloud.
Nothing much has changed.
Dorian is moving.
Dealing with dry air.
But Dorian has always been a fighter.
Always.
Kind of like Josh.
Don't bet against them.
More tomorrow.
I with but I can't say.......
... this is just a near Wilmington ...
Clips the Outer Banks.
I'd love to say that.
I just don't feel it yet in my bones.
But I feel due to approach and timing issues.
And it's current longitude so far West.
It's more a landfall than a miss.
And the CONE has it's bets covered well.
It's a good cone.
Beautiful form.
Still down by Melbourne FLORIDA
Neat pretty.
Top heavy with long band going through NC
And SC up above ahead of the storm.
I just think this is one that doesn't slip away.
Either way does it matter?
Except for wild video at the ocean.
NC and SC are about farm land.
About inland flooding.
It's all River Basins as I've shown before.
The rivers that feed the farms....
... can flood the farms in a hurricane.
And that's been happening since ...
..we started settling in this area.
This beautiful neck of the woods.
The eye of #Dorian has returned. The hurricane is quickly regaining organization tonight as it lifts northwestard away from the Bahamas. pic.twitter.com/jnzJ8Y14z7
So many models to look at and many sites to use but I'm going to use an old school one that is easier I feel for many to use. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ You can use www.tropicaltidbits.com it is awesome and his work is awesome as he learns more and grows in his field of study. https://www.windy.com/ is at the bottom, a great visual way to look at models if the other way confuses you and it does confuse many.
Going to go through this carefully below.
But first I have to tell you it's hard to find a model.
That doesn't pull East enough to bother/hit/hurt SC/NC
And as for Georgia.. home of St. Marys and Savannah...
Doesn't look great for them either.
And when I say SC/NC I mean INLAND impacts are possible.
I have to tell you these are my cities.
My places I go to be at peace with the world.
I love Low Country. Marsh land we call it in GA.
Love it. I went to St. Marys a month ago ...
...to see how the rebuilding of the dock was going along.
SLOWLY is the answer.
Crazy storm surge from IRMA smashed
their dock to Cumberland Island.
Boats landed up in the park and on the street.
Beaumont SC is one of my favorite little towns.
I was there recently I blogged... I tweeted.
I looked out over the marsh, water and...
I saw a hurricane, storm surge...
I tried to tell myself it was my imagination.
But I've said for months I'm worried on a coastal storm.
Went to Beaufort recently.
Stopped at a Cafe for coffee.
Stared out at the water across the street.
Though good coffee .. Cantore would love it.
Think I teased him sent a tweet if he has to go there..
Great coffee and great view.
Now I am hoping he doesn't have to.
So this is not ALL about OBX.
It wasn't all about Florida.
It was horribly about the Bahamas.
Now what?
Will update at bottom next model runs.
Let's go through the Models carefully as these models show both Dorian's possible track and the track of other Atlantic cruisers showing up soon. NOTE MODELS CHANGE. The Cone always adjusts to the storm's actual movements and model guidance. So nothing here is set in stone. It's just to show you what may or may not happen and why you should not eat the hurricane supplies but keep them locked up tight.
Let's start with the much maligned Canadian.
Remember the storm track might be off...
...but all offer valuable info on the High and Fronts.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
