Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

6 PM. Imelda Raining Over Texas - Humberto & Bermuda.. Jerry Kicking Up His Heels in the Atlantic - Is Karen Going to Develop Behind Jerry Or Be Another Midnight Surprise? Time Will Tell. Humberto Pronounced like UMBerto (think Uma Thurman... wink)




Humberto currently forecast to recurve.
Hopefully missing the Islands.
Models below.


@hurricanemodels on Twitter.
Can't remember the last time I saw such an array.
Like a Pasta Buffet... all you can eat.

And yet models are tightly clustered on track.
Odd as usually intensity impacts track some.
But not here apparently...


Phil Ferro in Miami doing the Jerry explanation.


He's good.
Expected to veer away...

Discussion from NHC.
I disagree as I think there is shear there now.
And it's forecast to get stronger.
Holds Jerry's intensity down.
And yes there is some dry air out there...


Earthnull has lots of filters.
Its's good to play with... 
www.earthnull.com
Note the golden colors.



At 2 PM...
The NHC gave my Carib blob 10%
Wave behind Jerry has low odds too for now.
It's unfriendly before 50 degrees West.
We've seen this all season.

The Yellow Carib Blob looks at Jerry.
And thinks... what do I need that for...


Definitely looking at each other.
Carib Blob kind of a slacker.
Let's hope it's not an late bloomer... 


There's is a video below that explains how Humberto...
...and his wake... his tail... makes it hard for storms to form.
We can get named storms such as Jerry.
But it literally sucks moisture away from the storms below.
Shear from that and the ULL that's NW of Jerry...
...holding the lid on Jerry for now.
And hampering development of the Carib Convection.
My concern with the Carib Yellow Area is......
........should part of it make it further West.
It hits warm water and less dry air.
And there we could have a problem.
Or if the wave behind Jerry did that as well.
Anything that forms down there...
...gets pulled North and can be a player.



Good Tweet below.
Good descriptions, easy to read.



As for Humberto.
Good video from Bermuda.
I've never been there.
Researched a bit on it.
Realized many left Bermuda for the Bahamas.
And then from the Bahamas to the FL Keys.
Many old Keys Conch families in Bermuda.
Logical. Anyway beautiful.

I'll update in the morning.
Things are relatively on cruise control.
A day to watch and wait.
And see what happens tomorrow.

* * * 
From earlier this morning.
Keep reading if you have not.
Putting this video at the top.
It explains more on what is at the bottom.
They go hand in hand.
It's a fast video ...
...TURN THE SOUND UP
(gotta remember to say that...
...learning as I go)



Keep those thoughts in mind while reading this blog.


 

Good Morning.
So... I am going to go long on images.
And...short on words this morning.
Because I have much going on today...
...and today is a day to watch Jerry.
Watch the area not highlighted to the W of Jerry.
Watch and pray it doesn't flood in Texas.
And wave bye bye to Humberto.

Our two anchored red blobs....
Imelda to the left in Texas.
Jerry bottom right.
Coming on strong.
Humberto a Cat 3 in name only.
Doesn't really give the sat look...
..and forecast to immediately weaken.
Going out to sea.

Let's start with Texas.
Because we have tropical weather there now.


Note the golds and oranges over the GOM.
We had this with Harvey and others.
While the center is on land.
The bulk of the rain... is over water.
So it can sustain itself a while.
Hope it just fades away...


Cone for Imelda above.
Cone for Jerry because.... 
... everyone wants to know about Jerry.


Jerry has the same track Humberto had... 
...or was supposed to have though...
The threat here to Florida seems less.
Should it take the bottom of that cone...
...it needs to make a sharper turn to miss Florida.
Yes, I know you know this drill.
I know this drill.
Does Jerry know the drill?


Bye Bye So Long Fare Well... 
Major Hurricane. Hurricane.
On the way to Europe somewhere..
We don't hate to see you go.



Using the satellite imagery here above.
It's easy to see Jerry is a problem.
And Jerry has a friend as I said yesterday.
Bit worried on that but it's too soon to worry.


Note Jerry's friend develops slower.
Jerry's friend develops lower.
Jerry's friend may be Karen.
But after the Imelda switcheroo.
Who knows for sure?

When something is near Africa....
Florida watches nervously.
When something moves more to the North 
Carolinas hold their breath.
We've seen this play out all year.
Sometimes things get messy and...
...the Mid Atlantic is in play.
So basically we're watching.

Beautiful image below 


Smiling, love that.
As much as I love color black and white is easier to see.
Sometimes as there are less distractions.

Quickly showing you the models for Jerry.


Jerry looks strong.
Stronger Jerry gets further North it gets.
Could NHC be wrong?


There's an Upper Level Low in the middle.
Similar to the one that dogged and steered Humberto.
Moisture is getting caught in it's strong flow.
That's how Imelda formed.
When they spin FAST and BIG... things get weird.
I think of them as black, ghost canes.

An old post from an old blog.
I felt NHC should have opened Monday with an Invest.
Rather than waiting and then slowly work up...
...in case it hit Depression status.
As I felt it was be a player.
Was a player the whole time with Humberto.

Note the moisture came off Humberto.
Wrapped up into it's core.
Then it worked it's way down to the surface.
I'm not saying that is gonna happen ...no.
Showing you how complex things are.

This is an old blog post.
Last Friday I said to watch the Gulf of Mexico.

No models saw anything.
(I thought I was going out on a limb...)
But I felt it was good to mention.
And to remind you to watch.
If I just regurgitate the NHC....
...of what use am I?
So I sometimes go out on a limb.
And I think I help explain things ....
...in a way many can understand.


See a black cane (ULL)
They steer hurricanes.
They hinder development.
They enhance development.
The thing with ULLs is all about location.
And strength... 
Some are very stubborn.
Some move around and go poof fast.

The MIMIC below is great.
Shows where the moisture is getting pulled.
Moisture you can't see on the visible.
Moisture the Water Vapor hints at.
And when things start to rolll..
...or kink up.
Rotation is happening.
You can see Jerry there.
Dark orange, mid image.
Pinks pulling in to the center.
And to the left... West of it.
Is our old... oh my gosh.
I think it was 946L or 94L
(hard to keep up)
NHC does NOT highlight it.
But it develops the next wave there.



See? So putting this year again.
It's up at the top.
Every model this year developed something there.
And many of those waves died out.
Some developed faster.
Dorian got there.... 
... and possibly the new wave will.
As it sneaks below Jerry.
Really OUTFLOW from JERRY...
KEEPS what may be KAREN South... 
Further West... and go "WHEW"
As it makes it close to the Islands.
But why aren't we watching this area?
It's convecting where we thought it would.
But models....
Models sometimes miss things.
And then they latch on and things change.
Or the NHC has to admit something's there.
Like Imelda.
And what worries me is ANY wave with convection.
ANY area of convection that gets into the Caribbean.
Worries me because the water is super duper HOT there.


So let's wait and pray a bit...
...that the area of convection previously watched.
Now ignored by the NHC lumbers along...
..with no center developing.
No rotation.
Because should anything get in that region...
..and have any spin to it.
It will become a problem...
...there or when it turns the corner by the Yucatan.
And it could get into the Gulf.
Sneak into the Gulf.
So let's hope it just shuffles off to the EPAC.


You can loop this yourself.
Save the link.
It's one of the best loops.
It shows what is....
...and it has a predictive value.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=120hrs&anim=anigf

If you see rotation beginning...
little pinks (there now) growing...spinning.
Then we have to wonder why it's ignored.

Oh because the models.
Models are wonderful.
They are computers.
They are not people.
They miss small things.... 
They are garbage in and garbage out.

As long as things stay in the Atlantic WNW to NW..
they seem to curve out.
But should something get underneath.
Be it Karen or well near where Matthew spun up.
We could have a big problem on many levels.

Hope not.
Prepare for the worst.
Hope for the best.
Party when they miss ya...

Much love.
I'll update tomorrow.
Later today should NHC name a new storm.
In fujiwara hyper ADD speed.
I'm a bit ADD so I can say that...

Check back later for updates.
A bit tired from the Blitzkrieg NWS like reporting.
On what was going on after Imelda formed.
I prefer information in advance...
...but you can't always get what you want.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Is Imelda gonna get to San Antionio?
Wondering....


Will it's moisture make it to Oklahoma?
Keeping this here....
...one of my all time favorite songs.




















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posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:04 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

TS IMELDA MAKES LANDFALL!! Previously Invest 98L Tropical Storm Heads to Texas TD 10 Forms in Atlantic Humberto King of the Tropical Road.


More headlines from the NHC

 
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD INLAND

OH what a day it's been...

I want to go back here to explain how this happens when before late last night there was no official discussion on this area even though I went long on it for days. I was taught and taught by the best that sometimes when convection gets trapped in an Upper Level Low it can work it's way down to the surface. Always drove me crazy as sometimes it happens and other times not, hard to say and after a while you get a feel for the way the water vapor loop as well as the set up to see it might happen but you feel as if you are going out on a limb when there is no model support for what you are seeing going on and sometimes you have to go with what you know can happen. It's at least worth pointing it out and saying there is no model support and I did.


I don't like making videos.
But I wanted to show the water vapor loop.
So I did it.
(then felt worried as again no model support)



I posted images of what looked like a Black Hurricane.
Inside the otherwise dry air.
And made note that in the loop you could see..
... moisture getting trapped inside the ULL


I noted that the moisture was coming from Humberto


And the thing with these ULLs that work their way down..
...to the surface is... 
They can spin up very fast.
And historically that part of the GOM
Near Texas Coast...
...based on the shelf of the GOM..
things spin up fast...
...things intensify fast.
At Landfall.

So I felt it was better yesterday AM...
...to raise it to an Invest.
Also because some models show 18 inches of rain.
Easy to ignore those but still...
...that bayou area floods.
Things happen fast in the tropics.
In real time.
As we learned today.
Mike on Facebook Live said today...
... much has happened this year in real time.
Well he used his words..

He talks long.
I write long.

So I hope that helps understand..
...what just happened.

Headline from NHC
Imelda makes Landfall 
Near Freeport Texas





 Tropical Storm IMELDA forms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Making Landfall in TEXAS


(nhc still writing advisory will add it in later.)

 Oops.... not a Depression anymore.
Tropical Depression 11 has just formed.
A BULLETIN was sent out.





Tropical Storm Warnings Hoisted.




Tropical Depression 10 has formed.
NHC putting out a package at 11 AM.
As I mentioned below....
... that was pretty much a done deal.


And look at that ... TD 10 already has a follower!



Cone looks very familiar.
Hopefully it will go out to sea like the others.
But way too soon to say for now..
...so continue watching to your ESE.
It's Hurricane Season.

Humberto center stage.
98L getting brighter.
Almost more red there than in Humberto.
Humberto intense but running a bit dry.


Good news on Humberto ... 
..new cone misses Bermuda.
A WIN WIN there!

Wanted to post this beautiful video.
Mark is actually going to Bolivar in TX
For 98L (think about it)

This is why our beaches in Carolinas are loved.


beautiful view of the beach and the waves...
...from offshore Humberto.
Thanks!

And also note in the picture above....
...that wave behind TD10 is intense.
Guess we will see an Invest there...
...when they get around to it.
It's far out and closer problems face Texas.
Priorities.

98L Moving slow.
Waltzing slowly across Texas...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-pJBiNN45k


Going to go over things carefully today.
Choose your interest.
1. Texas Trouble as it's close in where people live. Invest 98L
2. Invest 97L soon to find it's name. Atlantic Wave.
3. Humberto... offshore, beautiful to watch spin. Bermuda..
4. Tropical Wave Train coming off Africa still.

Immediacy in time and location...
...draw our attention to Texas.



Note below Humberto off the East Coast...
... taking it's weather to Bermuda possibly.
Rain lingering over Texas.
Sabine River Valley TX/LA


atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Use this loop and keep this in mind
NWS said Louisiana may get more rain.
Note 98L and Humberto...
...kind of spinning in tandem.
I feel it's possible 98L leans left...
Time will tell.
Too soon to tell.

This radar loop is up on www.spaghettimodels.com
Notice the bands of rain coming onshore.
While the center..or centers stay offshore.
That's a typical Texas set up.
Multiple centers in a closed circulation.
Rain streaming onshore....
...while enough stays offshore.
So it can send more....
Rain.

Heavy rains in Bayou Land = Flooding.
The city of Houston is part of a Bayou.
It's a large metropolitan area...
... much land covered with highways.
Located in a bayou prone to flooding.

It's just a recipe for a slow disaster.
I am NOT saying this is a Harvey.
Harvey was a worst case scenario.

But it is a large area of convection spinning.
And it is slow moving over the next few days.
So it could be a mini Harvey.
And even that is a problem.

Hopefully that does not play out.

So while NHC has it at 30% chances...
...those are for development.
Not for problems.

NWS Houston writes good discussion:


Models show it moving inland slowly.
This grid is from SpaghettiModels.


Shear is low.
If any of those "hot towers" with strong convection.
Get entwined with the stronger center.
It could strengthen a bit.
But this is not about wind but about rain.
Flash Flood Potential.
Looking at a shear map below.


What's there now?


Earthnull...


The rain shield is expanding.
Before...


Currently... 


My bottom line with 98L is...
Watch local media and weather for info.
NWS Houston.. has a Flash Flood Watch.


I know from my brother who lived there....
...flash floods happen before you can type "flash"
So plan accordingly.
Watch for updates.

Remember what NWS Houston said...
About more rain for Louisiana possibly.
Next up soon to be Imelda.
Well if you believe NHC 90%


Looks respectable here below.
Note it's friend following along behind it.


NRL has a map grid up on their site.
When they do that it portends upgrade expected.



Why do we care?
It's currently headed into the Islands.
It could clip the Islands as others have done.
Don't forget Dorian went through the Islands.
Then turned to the left across the Virgin Islands.
Things change in real time.


Long term models below.



Go to www.tropicaltidbits.com for models.
Yes in theory this goes off and follows Humberto.
But a few models break from the pack.
So we watch it and see where it tracks.

Earthnull shows an almost there signature.
Closed yet a bit weak of SW side.
But worthy I'd think of TD status or more.


atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Here's the loop of the basin.
You can see 98L 97L and Humberto.
Humberto while strong is huge.
Huge and hugely offshore.
But it has a bit of dry air in there.
And Imelda should show up soon.

Again... 98L RAIN 
FLASH FLOODS possible.


Humberto....
Staring at the US ....
...then moving off towards Bermuda territory.


King of the Atlantic today.


See how they are still attached on the Mimic Loop.
Image below.
The ULL that ran with Humberto.
Still linked.


Amazing how these systems link together.
Linkage. 
Theory in International Relations.
But applies perfectly to meteorology.
98L is in there below.
It actually looked more distinct yesterday.


But see it's connection to the lead wave.
Lead wave IN the Islands .. 
The wave behind it.
All the way back to Africa.

Tropical Convergence Continually Flowing.

Weather is amazing.

Wave Train moving off Africa still.

Water Vapor Image below.
Pockets of moisture.
Tropical Waves.
Westbound.


My favorite blue view 


Could one of those become an October Hurricane?
Possibly.

So stay tuned.

Humberto... King of the Tropical Road.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

It's National Country Day or something like that..
Incredible Special on PBS.
Been watching.
History and Music.
American Music and History.

https://www.pbs.org/kenburns/country-music/

Country Music....
...began mostly in the South.
And the South knows weather.
Hurricanes... trouble.
Love, Love Lost, Love Found.
Hurt, Heartache and Happiness.
Give it a listen...









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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:14 AM 0 comments