Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Subtropical Storm Rebekah in N Atlantic - Fires in California - Power Company Turns Power Off - Rain in the SE. Hot Water in the Caribbean As We Move Into November



A press release with info was sent out.... the NHC site had this info below. And I expected the NHC went ahead and upgraded 99L to Rebekah because well .... that's what they do in 2019. I'm sure I'll give my thoughts on this later at some point but for now I'm sharing the data and the information and that's the way it goes today. Next name up Sebastien...

NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Rebekah, located over the northern Atlantic at 5pm 

While waiting for the advisory to come out I just wanted to point out President Reagan's Library in Simi Valley is in danger from the fire there being whipped by hurricane force "Devil Winds" known also as Santa Ana Winds. I know that area well as it's just North of where my Ex-husband's family home was and we'd drive up there on Sunday's for a nice ride out in the country. For Baby Boomers that grew up watching old Westerns it's where many a Western Shoot Out was filmed. Beautiful area that became filled with a suburban paradise that oozed past the San Fernando Valley when they ran out of room there. A beautiful part of the world... but not today.


Turn the sound up if you want to hear my thoughts while watching the broadcast, very crazy...
I did a video earlier talking while watching the coverage online live of the fire. As someone who has asthma (mild) whose kids had asthma that often wasn't mild and that used a Nebulizer to keep them out of the hospital and manage their asthma ...especially when there was a fire out in the Everglades and the smell of smoke spread East over Miami making kids with asthma extremely sick. The thought that I would have 3 options... 1) grab my kid and leave town 2) go to the hospital and sit in the waiting room to be safe or 3) take my chances without any power because the Power company cut the power is intolerable to think on yet to have to deal with as many are today. Many use machines to breathe or help them for various medical conditions and this cutting the grid off doesn't seem right. Fire Season in California happens every year, some years worse than others... there should be a better plan. It's like not preparing for Hurricane Season in South Florida and to be fair someone in California gets a fire every year yet Florida can go for years
without a real landfall ...yet we work them into our overall way of life.

Something seriously wrong with this situation....

Simi Valley used to be and still is in some part Horse Country and I do so love horses.



I may update later tonight on the fires.
It's very weather related as it's the WINDS...
...the hurricane force, dry winds creating this situaion.
It's Fire Season in California.
Been there... unless you have felt that dry wind.
You can't imagine.
I walked down the street one day and watched..
...flowers folding over and dying in real time.
As if a Fire Breathing Dragon in the Sky..
...was blowing down on West Hollywood.
And there was a fire two blocks away.
Up near the foothills of the mountains.
The fire was put out...
...not everyone's fire was put ou.
It was a bad Fire Season that year in the 1980s.






To be clear we are looking at the small center here.
Inside the larger huge cloud swirl.


It's all about the center.
Is this tropical?
No.
Is it subtropical?
Ish...
The pattern of these huge swirls.
And I use that term because..
..basically that's what they are.
The atmosphere swirls....
...it dances.
It moves in tandem with other swirls.
Other fronts and it flows.

Is this something to be named?
Only the NHC makes that call.



Currently it's at 50% as in "any minute"
It may be raised to 70%
Or it could get a name briefly.
We've seen this often this year.
Hurricane Season almost over.
Azore systems often get named.
At the discretion of the current regime at NHC
And they have been hot to trot with names.
Here's our wide view.


There is much more energy in our front over the SE.
Or moving over the SE.
Love the dotted line across the Atlantic.
It delineates the North Atlantic with the MDR.


Down below we have a parade of tropical waves.
West to East or trying.
I suppose because no one told them they couldn't.

In Raleigh it's raining this morning.
And I'm kind of loving it.
To be honest.

The constant pitter patter of raindrops.
It's been a while since we heard that.

A gentle reminder that there is still time...
...for a Caribbean system to form.
Gulf of Mexico or Home Grown.


Just because it's snowing in Colorado...
..doesn't mean it's not hot in the tropics.
In the 90s in Florida often.
Water in the Caribbean very hot.
Hot = favorable conditions.
So far we've been lucky.


As they say.
Nothing to track in this area.
But those are mighty strong rain cells.
Coming into the regular towns.
That often get tropical weather.
It's tropical.... 
But it's not organized.
Just rain.
Older map image but you get the idea.
Of how we got here.
Big news story today.




California could use some rain.
To quench the fires and
... let the power go back on.

I cannot imagine having my power turned off.
I had kids who used nebulizers for asthma.
When there is smoke in the air...
...asthma and bronchitis is a big issue.



https://apnews.com/91e853cb78654387becd90e1bf6bb486

You'd think they could think of another way.
As maintain the grid or the system.
Have thought of how to do this better...
.... and restore power to people who need.
Mind boggling.

Yeah California.
Lived there.
Earthquakes, Mudslides and Fires.
Pick your poison.
Everywhere has something.
Mother Nature finds a way.

And that's it.

I'll update if the NHC does.
Have a wonderful day!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.




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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:18 AM 0 comments

Friday, September 27, 2019

Tropics Friday. Karen's Chapter Ending. Lorenzo For Now Spinning Beautiful. What Else is Down the Road in the Tropics? Time Will Tell in this Circle Game.


We can see Karen slowly coming apart.
Lorenzo taking up half the ocean it seems.





Hard to find a "Tropical Storm" where Karen is...
Lorenzo yeah...
The ULL is off the coast of FL.. visible.

Cones and facts below.


Karen's ever diminishing cone above.
Lorenzo below.



Lorenzo's wind path...
...far from land.

Discussion.


Some fluctuations in intensity are expected....

The last chapters are being written on Karen currently as the NHC has downgraded her to Tropical Depression status ... kind of breaking the news to her gently I suppose... as we all knew this was happening though not sure Karen expected it. Karen has always been able to "pulse up" when needed, but as we saw with the overwhelming shear aimed at Jerry... she too will respond in kind and in theory go quietly off into the books for 2019. She was always a questionable tropical storm vs a strong tropical disturbance, though to stay together so long there was probably some center there holding her together even if the NHC and recon had problems at times trying to pin it do
wn. Karen impacted several places with strong, heavy rains, flooding and creating power outages.


Good discussion from NHC. You can see from the image above this chapter seems to be ending for Karen and Lorenzo will take a long time to come apart as it's incredibly big, beautiful and far out at sea not hurting anyone.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/
MIATCDAT3+shtml/271442.shtml

Lorenzo is still "oh my gosh gorgeous" but on it's way, stair stepping down in intensity as hurricanes like people have a prime period in their life that can never be totally maintained but he will be remembered for being strong like Hurricane Gabrielle was years ago in 1989. 


Lorenzo above.
Gabrielle below.


Note hos similar Lorenzo and Gabrielle look.
And yesterday Lorenzo looked more like Gabrielle.

Link to info on a forgotten intense hurricane.
Overshadowed by it's brother Hugo in 1989

And looking forward.

Remember to watch the tail end of fronts.
We are scheduled to have strong fronts soon.
And strong fronts race through and then...
...go flat somewhere off the East Coast.
Sometimes in the Gulf of Mexico.

There's a lot of model innuendo...
..and discussion by good meteorologists.
On something forming in mid October.
Don't hold me to October 15th...
2nd week to end I'd say.
Weather is FLUID.
So it dances to it's own tune.
We try and keep up.
Models adjust in real time.
Then the NHC adjusts in real time.
Being honest they are very model driven now.
Being honest we all are.

Going to rest the rest of the day.
And I'll update Sunday.
I was pretty sick.
Why do we say "pretty sick" I don't know.
No one is "pretty" when that sick.
But on the road to recovery.
Even without make up I look better than Karen.

So models for way out into the future.
And know any front that delivers a punch...
...could deliver tornadoes somewhere.
...and then possibly tropical development.
Time will tell.



Far off in the distance images of GFS and EURO.
Both show a dangling cold front...
..parked over warm water.
So keep that in mind while...
...looking for pumpkins this week.
Or doing the Jewish New Year.
Fall... end of summer.
Beginning of the new year.
Winter off in the distance...
Summer moves into the rear view mirror.
Transition of time.
Prime time for Major Hurricanes way too often.

2 long term images from www.windy.com
When you have time they are good to donate to.
As Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com says..
I give a $5 tip at a restaurant....
... give them a tip they are helpful.
That goes with Levi Cowan too.
www.tropicaltidbits.com
Cost them money to run those sites.
I write... no real costs involved.
Even if I give valuable information.
I write the way Mike talks.
We can both go on and on forever.

So where do we go from here?
I'm going offline.
Letting antibiotics knock my infection out.
Now that the tooth issue is gone.
And I mean that literally...
The sinus issue is center stage.
Antibiotics bugging my stomach.
I'll save you the details.
But I had a huge headache last night.
So stayed offline...

Resting, drinking tea.
(not too warm because oral surgery)
And hey got lots of Halo Ice Cream!
Watching fall color from my window.
The view from my bed.


That tree rarely shows color until late October.
It's early this year.
I think Dorian may have shaken it up.
I remember after Matthew that happened.
Or winter will come soon...
Heard a rumor of 40s and 50s October 4th or 5th.
Time will tell.

But know while y'all complaining how hot it is..
...on the East Coast and in the Deep South.
It's cold and stormy with early snow in the NW.
Eventually winter will show up here too!


Have a beautiful Fall Weekend!
Or an Indian Summer Weekend!
Enjoy the experience... 
... it's part of a change.

Karma is funny. In 1989 I thought on naming a baby Gabrielle if it was a girl as I was expecting and Gabrielle was a beautiful storm. It was a boy, his name is Mendy (common name in Chabad) and then I found out my Great, Great, Great Grandfather's name was Gabriel doing Ancestry and laughed thinking how close we were... a few months ago my daughter had a baby boy and her husband is an Israeli and they chose the name Gabriel for my grandson. I told my son-in-law that was amazing, you knew it was a family name? He smiled and shook his head no and said "what goes around comes around" and it's true. So I ended up with a grandson Gabriel vs a daughter named Gabrielle. Both good names and yet many forget Gabrielle because 1989 was all about Hugo. 2019 is far from over... and come December looking back we will see if any hurricane comes along that rivals Dorian and though that sounds impossible... last year this time of year we had no thoughts on Michael becoming a Cat 5 landfalling hurricane. The tropics always hold surprises, much like life.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram


Ps... I don't go personal as much these days.. but my daughter Miriam (Gabriel's mother) is an artist as is her brother and another sister... art runs in our veins whether we are painting, writing or creating music. The video reminded me of Miriam doing art somewhere... won't say where...
And sorry for any typos, writing today was therapeutic (it's a blog.. diary online) and going to leave it however it ends up... so hope you enjoyed.



My brother Ron took a picture...
...he's into photography.


Big circle there.. like an eye.
Miami Marine Stadium....
...waiting to come to life again.
Artists kept it alive.
Old pictures.
Miriam on the left and Rivky on the right.
Not twins... but they used to play the twin game.


We're captive on the carousel of time... 
enjoy the ride always.






















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posted by BobbiStorm @ 10:05 AM 0 comments

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Updated 6 PM - The Novel of TS Karen... Center Stage... Lorenzo Going Major Hurricane Safely Out At Sea Now. Jerry POOF Post Tropical. Models Maps and Music


6 PM
The update I said I would do.
But there isn't much new to say.
The Fujiwhara dance for Karen...
...has been with the ULL.
And Karen is losing.

One of my favorite Carolina Meteorologists.
Good map of the tropics tonight.
Karen and Lorenzo.



So let's look at Karen tonight.
Not a pretty site.



The NHC by their own words said they were not sure of the intensity of Karen measured in different ways earlier during a rain storm. I'm not going complain about the NHC on this one as they are trying to provide continuity to the viewing public they are trying to protect and on the small chance Karen ramps up again (and it has been known to pulse up erratically) they don't want people to let their guard down. They are walking back their previous intensity forecast with lowered expectations and unless Karen does something fast, it will most likely be downgraded to a Depression at 11 PM. My guess, you never really know what the NHC will do but that's my thought at 6 PM.  Leaving you the link to the discussion that explains the reasons the NHC maintained Karen as a Tropical Storm when it is very difficult to even find it on satellite imagery.


The Upper Level Low is winning that battle and even if it moves away soon there may not be enough of Karen to put back together once it finds positive conditions. Shear killed off Jerry and shear is killing off Karen. Perhaps the shear deserves an award of some kind for protecting the East Coast from what could have been a serious landfall by Jerry and a second hit from Karen. Humberto for that matter could have been a problem, but it was blasted by shear so let's call this the year of Shear and give shear a thanks because tropical systems can avoid High Pressure but when Shear races after them slamming them relentlessly with shear from strong Upper Level Lows the cyclone always loses.  They can be powerful deal breakers and in rare circumstances the ULL can ventilate a cyclone and intensify it but it can also kill it faster than you can say "Post Tropical Cyclone Jerry" if you see what I mean.

Now we have Lorenzo.
Hurricane Lorenzo.
A Classic Hurricane.
Beautiful.


I said I'd talk about Lorenzo.
There isn't much to say other than it's rare.
Rare to be that strong that far East.


Phil is the keeper of statistics.
He has an amazing brain.
If there is a statistic to find ... he finds it.
Strongest hurricane this far East...
...this late in the calendar year.

From day one Lorenzo was a stunner.
And he is stunning.
Far away and not hurting anyone.
You can't feel guilty for staring at him..
...in wonder.


Below you can see the difference.
A real Tropical Cyclone...
...and a decaying weak Tropical Storm.

I wanted you to be able to compare...
Karen with Lorenzo.
A weak TS and a Hurricane.
So you see the difference...
...on the water vapor loop.




So until we know if Karen survives.
We will have to put those long range models aside.
If it does survive or come back...
..we will revisit the situation.
In truth Karen has come back often.
And despite being weak.
It delivered a strong blow to Puerto Rico.
An island just putting itself back together after Maria.
and impacted Trinidad an island rarely impacted.
So as I've said before Karen is tricky.
I keep waiting for some surprise move.

This is good video posted on Twitter.
Karen has caused flooding on multiple islands.




And lastly before talking Hurricane History below...
..know models are beginning to latch onto the GOM storm.
I've mentioned it many times recently.
Been concerned on something forming there.
With a strong high to the North...
...and so much tropical, moist air to the South.
It's only a matter of time.
And it has Climo stamped all over it.




Now for some Hurricane History on Loopers.
Also...there's been much talk on Jeanne and Betsy.
Two of our favorite looping hurricanes.





Note Betsy was a strong hurricane ..
...going into her 2nd loop.
Weak on 1st loop.



Jeanne a weak storm beginning the loop.
Strengthening as it neared Landfall.

Again cone for Karen.


Can Karen survive until she gets to ....
...where she can intensify?
That's far down the road.
Though she has been tricky.
And often full of surprises.

Putting this video here so you can see ...
..the ongoing drama of Karen.
And the Mid to Upper Level Low.
I'll just say ULL but that's to be exact.
Turn the sound up... or just watch.



11 AM no real changes to track.
NHC keeps intensity at 45 MPH.
Worth noting they can't find the center.
"The initial position is a little difficult to locate"
Probably because it may not have a real center.

Discussion explains the problems ....
..and their solution maintaining status quo.
Tends to work often...
..especially with systems that pulse up and down.


GFS and EURO barely see Karen.
They definitely don't hold onto it.
Tho other models do keep it around.
You can find the whole Discussion at NHC.

Cone basically the same.


Continue reading if you haven't...
..it's from around 9:30 this morning.
I'll update after the 5 PM.
Recon is scouring Karen ....
...trying to ascertain it's real center.
Stay tuned.

PS Lorenzo is a beautiful 85 MPH Hurricane.
I'll discuss Lorenzo later this afternoon.
Of concern currently are models showing Karen..
... looping or traveling near the East Coast.





Jerry at the top with the X in it...
Post Tropical.

Tropical Storm Karen center stage.
Hurricane Lorenzo far to the East.
Yellow area 10% anchored near the Yucatan.

You know the reality of life is after a Major Hurricane such as Dorian everyone is a little ragged and nervous when they hear there is a tropical system out there somewhere in the Atlantic. But, the reality is that you don't see a Hurricane Dorian form all the time and even if we get another Major Hurricane it won't be Dorian. When Hurricane Andrew rolled West towards Miami in 1992 many people say Hugo that had trashed South Carolina in 1989, the scenes of devastation were ripe in our terrified minds. In reality you have to take every tropical system as it's own unique entity and even mild mannered storms can become problematic when they switch directions and take detours towards your town. And, often they take a detour and go around whatever the problem in the road is (in our case a strong High Pressure Ridge) and then they continue on their way as if they had never turned right. That doesn't mean there is no danger of Karen impacting the Florida coast, but it means it has to be measured in concern by it's actual intensity and strength and monitored for any changes in intensity, strength or track. So keep that in mind while reading things online, looking at models or reading the rest of this blog. Thanks.

Current radar showing parts of Karen.

JUA_loop.gif (600×550)

The satellite loop below.

GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif (900×540)

The models and the cone are below.
I'll talk on beautiful Hurricane Lorenzo later.


And note Jerry is now Post Tropical 
There as a naked swirl but nothing more.
It's "there" but not there.
It's signature doesn't disappear overnight.
On Mimic it's very noticeable.
Yet so is the dry blue ridge North of Karen.


Kind of a disconnect isn't it?
You can see Jerry but it's lost it's Mojo.
Yet Karen a weak system is barely there.
To the East is Hurricane Lorenzo.
Understand each product shows us...
...different things we need to see.
And in this case...
...note that dry air over Florida.
Now those models....


Putting this up from Spaghetti Models.
Adore Mike... 
He can seem very ADD all over the place yet..
...he has the most organized mind.
And it shows on his site.
He's an awesome guy.
Good amateur meteorologist too!
Lover of weather...


So looking at that you go..
"Oh My GOD"
Keep in mind this is a weak system.
And look carefully at the end game.


OH.... you can see how that cone would go.
Some models go WSW to Cuba.
Others break away and scare the Carolinas.
While Florida watches and waits.
Some turn back when the High is gone.
Not very helpful but we like models.


Above is the shear game.
Green is go.
Red is no.
Yellow is go slow.
Barely there Karen is under green.
But is sandwiched in by shear.
That's why the long term forecast is weak.


No don't look at Lorenzo to the right.
Big hurricane. Probably a Major.
Good place for a Major.
We can loop and love it far from land.
And that little S looking symbol is Karen.
Note the High off Mike's house near Tampa.
A high to the North.
Trapped, weak and needing help.

Currently Karen is weak.
Remember that.


And ...oh my goodness.
The Discussion from the NHC keeps it weak.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/
MIATCDAT2+shtml/250852.shtml

Good discussion trying to explain Karen.
You can read it above.
Bits and pieces of it below.
For people not used to reading the NHC
I'll translate here and there.

Karen is not well organized.
It has vortexes and secondary mid level circulations.
One has developed N of PR.
It's redeveloped more than moved there.
They are watching San Juan radar..

Note the Tweet I made yesterday...
..trying to show Karen's movement.
As the NHC has been trying to nail down...
...the exact center for days.



Steering currents will soon collapse.
"CLOCKWISE LOOP"
Karen is gonna be a looper.
That High Pressure Ridge I showed above...
...is one huge RED STOP SIGN.
Then it sees a "detour" sign... 
..and loops off the main road.


Note they say W to WSW 
Those are those tracks towards Cuba.
While it's looping.


Intensity forecast is perplexing.
What that really means is.
Karen is perplexing.
NHC trying to be conservative.
"Stay the course" kind of...
Let's see what happens but it should stay weak.

There's a problem.....
Karen will move thru low vertical shear...
...sitting over warm water.
So they compromise carefully for the forecast.

See the perplexing frustrating part is...
Some models show a hurricane.
Other models lose Karen completely.
Not an easy dance for the NHC.
Personally I'd sit this one out ...
...wait til the next song.
Next model run.

Bottom line here is two fold. Karen is not really moving as much as reorganizing everywhere near Puerto Rico and while we sit here analyzing it's 7th day (if it has a 7th day) it is pouring still over parts of PR and the Virgin Islands that have already had flooding and there are power outages. So really where are our priorities? Talking model fantasies or dealing with reality of what PR and VI are going through and remembering Karen could once again have something up it's sleeve and surprise us closer to Florida way, way down the tropical road? 

And my forever logic is when something doesn't make sense, it is possible it's you don't have all the facts. And the reality is it is possible while Karen is sitting behind some stop sign or try and picture yourself stuck in an hour plus road stop on I95 while they are doing construction and an accident happened and you aren't going anywhere any time soon... it's possible something else is going to happen. You know when Waze shows you the time of arrival and then there's an accident or multiple accidents up ahead and you begin to get notices of problems and the time of estimated arrival keeps getting further and further away? 

Yes.. it's possible something else happens. It's also possible some other system begins to try and form or low pressure forms nearby and gives Karen a path away from the pesky high pressure or an Upper Level Low forms and everything changes and I mean everything as in all your worst fears may go away or things you never worried on may happen. Or Karen gets blown away much like Jerry did but that happens much closer to land so somewhere, someone gets a rain shower from what was once Karen. Just so many ways to end this chapter in the 2019 Hurricane Season.

Stay tuned. I'll update later today with more model discussion and some videos.

Much love and thanks for your patience, it's been a long season for us with repetitive patterns but watch out we may have a new sort of system soon and as we move deeper towards October we look towards the SW Caribbean.  Yes that's foreshadowing...


Hint look left near Central America.
Gulf of Mexico purple..
But yes another CV wave may form.
But what would, could impact Karen's track.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram



















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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:22 AM 0 comments