Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Subtropical Storm Rebekah in N Atlantic - Fires in California - Power Company Turns Power Off - Rain in the SE. Hot Water in the Caribbean As We Move Into November



A press release with info was sent out.... the NHC site had this info below. And I expected the NHC went ahead and upgraded 99L to Rebekah because well .... that's what they do in 2019. I'm sure I'll give my thoughts on this later at some point but for now I'm sharing the data and the information and that's the way it goes today. Next name up Sebastien...

NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Rebekah, located over the northern Atlantic at 5pm 

While waiting for the advisory to come out I just wanted to point out President Reagan's Library in Simi Valley is in danger from the fire there being whipped by hurricane force "Devil Winds" known also as Santa Ana Winds. I know that area well as it's just North of where my Ex-husband's family home was and we'd drive up there on Sunday's for a nice ride out in the country. For Baby Boomers that grew up watching old Westerns it's where many a Western Shoot Out was filmed. Beautiful area that became filled with a suburban paradise that oozed past the San Fernando Valley when they ran out of room there. A beautiful part of the world... but not today.


Turn the sound up if you want to hear my thoughts while watching the broadcast, very crazy...
I did a video earlier talking while watching the coverage online live of the fire. As someone who has asthma (mild) whose kids had asthma that often wasn't mild and that used a Nebulizer to keep them out of the hospital and manage their asthma ...especially when there was a fire out in the Everglades and the smell of smoke spread East over Miami making kids with asthma extremely sick. The thought that I would have 3 options... 1) grab my kid and leave town 2) go to the hospital and sit in the waiting room to be safe or 3) take my chances without any power because the Power company cut the power is intolerable to think on yet to have to deal with as many are today. Many use machines to breathe or help them for various medical conditions and this cutting the grid off doesn't seem right. Fire Season in California happens every year, some years worse than others... there should be a better plan. It's like not preparing for Hurricane Season in South Florida and to be fair someone in California gets a fire every year yet Florida can go for years
without a real landfall ...yet we work them into our overall way of life.

Something seriously wrong with this situation....

Simi Valley used to be and still is in some part Horse Country and I do so love horses.



I may update later tonight on the fires.
It's very weather related as it's the WINDS...
...the hurricane force, dry winds creating this situaion.
It's Fire Season in California.
Been there... unless you have felt that dry wind.
You can't imagine.
I walked down the street one day and watched..
...flowers folding over and dying in real time.
As if a Fire Breathing Dragon in the Sky..
...was blowing down on West Hollywood.
And there was a fire two blocks away.
Up near the foothills of the mountains.
The fire was put out...
...not everyone's fire was put ou.
It was a bad Fire Season that year in the 1980s.






To be clear we are looking at the small center here.
Inside the larger huge cloud swirl.


It's all about the center.
Is this tropical?
No.
Is it subtropical?
Ish...
The pattern of these huge swirls.
And I use that term because..
..basically that's what they are.
The atmosphere swirls....
...it dances.
It moves in tandem with other swirls.
Other fronts and it flows.

Is this something to be named?
Only the NHC makes that call.



Currently it's at 50% as in "any minute"
It may be raised to 70%
Or it could get a name briefly.
We've seen this often this year.
Hurricane Season almost over.
Azore systems often get named.
At the discretion of the current regime at NHC
And they have been hot to trot with names.
Here's our wide view.


There is much more energy in our front over the SE.
Or moving over the SE.
Love the dotted line across the Atlantic.
It delineates the North Atlantic with the MDR.


Down below we have a parade of tropical waves.
West to East or trying.
I suppose because no one told them they couldn't.

In Raleigh it's raining this morning.
And I'm kind of loving it.
To be honest.

The constant pitter patter of raindrops.
It's been a while since we heard that.

A gentle reminder that there is still time...
...for a Caribbean system to form.
Gulf of Mexico or Home Grown.


Just because it's snowing in Colorado...
..doesn't mean it's not hot in the tropics.
In the 90s in Florida often.
Water in the Caribbean very hot.
Hot = favorable conditions.
So far we've been lucky.


As they say.
Nothing to track in this area.
But those are mighty strong rain cells.
Coming into the regular towns.
That often get tropical weather.
It's tropical.... 
But it's not organized.
Just rain.
Older map image but you get the idea.
Of how we got here.
Big news story today.




California could use some rain.
To quench the fires and
... let the power go back on.

I cannot imagine having my power turned off.
I had kids who used nebulizers for asthma.
When there is smoke in the air...
...asthma and bronchitis is a big issue.



https://apnews.com/91e853cb78654387becd90e1bf6bb486

You'd think they could think of another way.
As maintain the grid or the system.
Have thought of how to do this better...
.... and restore power to people who need.
Mind boggling.

Yeah California.
Lived there.
Earthquakes, Mudslides and Fires.
Pick your poison.
Everywhere has something.
Mother Nature finds a way.

And that's it.

I'll update if the NHC does.
Have a wonderful day!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.




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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:18 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Gulf Moisture Swept Up By the Approaching Front... Halloween Around the Corner. Then Comes November... Do You Like Candy Corn?



Only official game in town.
It's actually Invest 99L but...
...not being advertised.
Just being watched.
Ships at sea and all that.


It's pretty. Very there.
NHC doesn't seem to care.
So just pointing it out for posterity sake

The moisture in the GOM is shown below.
I didn't talk much on it.
It was obviously not going to get a name.
It's a player in the game.
Oomphs up the moisture in the next front.
It's a component of weather ahead for the South.



This is the pattern.
This is the purpose of Gulf moisture currently.
And it's good because many places need rain.
North Carolina needs it badly.

Just tropical moisture being swept up fast in the flow towards the cold front moving across the US on it's way towards bringing me a bit of cooler weather (in theory) as those in the North are getting the threat of snow, ice and those in the South are getting rain. We are having Fall mornings and summer like days as the thermometer climbs at Noon. I'd complain but friends in Florida are complaining about temperatures still in the low 90s so I'll shut up on complaining about the low 80s.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

We all see weather personally.
We look from our own perspective.
Or maybe we check where our parents live..
....or our children.
Or where we want to travel to next.


Raleigh expecting a low of 38 on Friday.
Says 73 today but trust me will be higher.
Every day we surpass the projected high.
Nights are beautiful.

In California winds are gusting hurricane strength.

If you want to follow LA weather or news.
Best source there is online.




Surfed around and came on this and I knew..
...where it was as I'd know the place in my dreams.
Sepulveda Pass on the 405 Freeway.

Winds can bring drought, rain or famine.
The many sides of weather and the atmosphere.

So that's it for today.
I have things to do.
And places to go.
And nothing calling to me tropically.

KYAAR is doing things on the other side of the world.
Beautiful to watch and many are....
and the beat goes on.




So that's it for today.
I said that already.
Had this song stuck in my mind.
One line "swept away"
Feel silly, figured out it was the Carrie Underwood Song.
It was "blown away"...
...maybe some "swept away" song somewhere?
Music running through my head always.
So leaving y'all with that.

Hope your weather is beautiful.
Watch fronts that are dragging slow ...
..and dying out over warm water.
But as always if there is shear there.
Nothing happens.
Deep Caribbean is usually the November arena.
So let's let things go where they flow.
And enjoy this spooky week!

Hope you have a happy Halloween.
What is a happy Halloween?
Your favorite friends?
Or your favorite candies?
Or your favorite spooky drink?

My favorite spooky song is obvious.



https://twitter.com/MissAshes92

Cute tweet today.
A candy corn weather map below.
Whole tweet shown above.


I have a brother in Greece who loves candy corn.
So virtually sending it to him here.
Creative map.
Gotta love Candy Corn.


Much love,
BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instragram


It's a bit of a dark song.
But I love the weather references....

"no storm clouds gather in her eyes"




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posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:35 AM 0 comments

Friday, August 23, 2019

Updated 8 PM ..Invest 99L 90% Recon Tomorrow Probably. MDR Moving WNW. 98L 70% RED Now. Hovering Over the Gulfstream by Florida & TD Chantal Still Out There... Triple Play in the Tropics Today. Which Invest Gets the Name Dorian ?

8PM UPDATE
a bit early good for me...


A Hurricane Recon plane will go in tomorrow most likely.
As 98L moves up into water it should have a better evironment.
If it follows the game plan...

Below is a picture of Invest 99L looking great.
Better than 98L to be honest.
98L has some circulation there kind of...
...but lacking convection.
Pretty sure if 98L looked like 99L it would have a name.


Come on from Outer Space you know what that is.
Odds up now and gone red on the 5 Day
70% Chances.


I'm expecting something to get designation tomorrow.
But hard to second guess the NHC this year.
Clearly looks more like a storm than Barry ever did.
But Barry was near Nola and 99L is days from the Islands.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Actually 99L is moving fast.
Might help it not to ingest too much dust.
Tho slowing down it would develop more.
Gulf of Mexico still being officially ignored.
98L looks a bit like part of a trough at times.
Let's see what it's got tomorrow.

I'll update Saturday evening next.

Check out radar loops on Spaghetti Models

www.spaghettimodels.com


Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm

Ps... keep reading if you didn't do so already!

98 * 99 * 98 * 99 *

Some thoughts here waiting to see if the NHC changes anything.


Listening to Mike do a Facebook Live.
Nice because he gives more details than the NHC
Just true as he can do that... 

Note how odd it is that the brightest convection...
...is in the Gulf of Mexico.
This isn't a doctored image up above.
It's looked like this for the last few days.
Invest 98L flares up, wanes, flares up
The circulation of 98L is mostly over land.
Now there are less South Florida rains than there were.
A dry Invest.......

And down in the bottom right corner.
Is our Invest 99L that's not getting any love from the NHC.
That could change.

Mike explains this well in this post.
Note this is an image of the Tropics currently.


This is the crux of the matter.
NHC went with EURO that showed not much.
GFS shows a... ? hurricane? 

It's the same game every year.
Why can't someone take both models and fuse them together?
Just wondering.

NHC official word from earlier today.
Hey it's there.
Hey it's gonna rain.
Stay tuned.



Currently expecting NHC will wait to see ....
....first AM visible.

98L
99L still there looking good...then what?

Will they ever hoist a yellow circle in the GOM?

Thought it was worth posting NWS discussion from Miami.


Kind of odd if a tropical storm forms over Homestead, FL
On the anniversary of Hurricane Andrew.
Just random weird thought.
Time will tell.

NWS Discussion below.


Euro shows a stronger system moving up the coast.
GFS shows weaker and does funky things.
It's over the warmest water it's going to find.

In truth most afternoon thunderstorms in Miami...
...are stronger than weak Tropical Depressions.


Top grid from www.spaghettimodels.com
Models and maps.
Graphs and details.
All the weather pasta you can eat ...

2 PM Update.



X Marks the Spot.
NHC ups 98L to 90% chances of development.
This is a sure thing the only question remains...
where and when?

Jim Williams from www.hurricanecity.com below


Seriously you can see it just E of Miami

Questions remain.
Models disagree.


Understand track is based on location of actual core development and upper air features such as Cold Fronts that are moving down currently towards the Carolinas. But just how strong is that front and how far will it go before going flat as a Stationary Front? It's coming through Raleigh but not whooshing through Savannah this weekend so where 98L is when it develops makes a big difference as things can change fast especially in this time of year when we are wearing flip flops and sipping Pumpkin Spice Latte as we dream on Autumn Leaves falling while thunderstorms are still building... you get the point. Nothing is carved in stone regarding 98L. 99L below will most likely continue West to WNW towards the Island for now. And by the way it looks beautiful on visible imagery as it has banding, signs of outflow but the NHC needs to keep raising up it's chances a bit more before dealing with the reality that only the GFS called for this wave to develop so fast. Maybe the upgrade worked?



Below is 99L now upped to 50% chances.
Looking very good on satellite imagery.


Here is the question in the short term.


Long term yeah goes out to sea.
But it draws scribble scrabble over South Florida.
NHC says the main weather stays off shore.
There are NO tropical watches up at 2 PM.
We might see that happen at 5 PM
It's a bit too close to play chicken here.
Kind of ridiculous.
They think it will form... 90%
But still waiting, waiting for it to come together.


It has a general "look" with the envelope.
It's definitely blooming....
But compare that to newly introduced 99L below.



99L looks far better than 98L
But 98L is hovering over a beach in South Florida
So it gets higher priority obviously.

Earthnull shows us both have a circulation.
We could have Dorian and Erin within 24 hours.



NHC will make that call soon.

Then we have the blob in the Gulf of Mexico.



Amazing there is MORE convection there.
If you didn't have models.
You'd think it's the Invest with 90%
What can I say?
Models matter.


And a wide view of our Invest 99L below.


Keep watching.


Really many questions on the GOM
Some models show development next week.

Again the GFS has been go for lift off for 99L
But it's not the model most respected.

Stay tuned.
I'll update at 5 PM.
Let's see what the NHC has to say

* * *









Note 98L is trying.
It's over HOT water now.
But... compare and contrast.


Updated note I wanted to mention.
Just keep this in mind while watching 98L near FL

Invest 99L currently looks better than 98L
And NHC named it as 99L ....
....before putting up the yellow circle.
Kind of rare to go from zero to Invest.
But we've seen this before.
It usually means things change fast.
Link to loop for 99L

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=99L&product=vis-swir

Yeah that's spinning.
98L trying to get spinage as Mike says from Spaghetti Models
This is something that should make you go "oh......."

So Welcome 99L to the Tropical Party.


As expected the Tropics are heating up on August 23rd.
Around the 25th we should have a named storm.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

Satellite image in motion above.
I want to draw your attention to our new player.
99L out in the Atlantic...
Yellow area in the MDR at 20% for now.
New wave off of Africa.
And our main player 98L hovering near Florida.
Florida and Cuba to be exact.
Forecast to move up the Florida coast.
And develop into a named storm like 97L did.
8AM from the NHC


All colors represented this morning.

Let's start with the closest system 98L
98L has a 70 percent chance of development.
Expect development eventually.


Actually in the 5 day discussion 98L is RED


I make this large to emphasize.... 
....this is so far the track of the Year.
Tracing the East Coast.
It may do some strange things before it gets up the coast.
So watch it closely in real time.
And that's easy as it's on Miami radar....


Florida has a real squeeze play going on.
Can it resist a landfall eventually?
Real drama there.
98L is trying to wrap up.
Note the water there is HOT....
Another view.

pie_None_anim.gif (768×496)

The breeding grounds for storms so far....
....as we move towards September.
We look further out.

But let's look at models first!



I'm just going to explain this here and understand it's more an issue of watch the satellite and radar loops than the models here with 98L in the short term as until a real center develops, takes overs, builds it's way up into the atmosphere and screams look at me on Earthnull many models will continue to drag this tropical wave known as Invest 98L West into the Gulf of Mexico... across South Florida, the Everglades, Florida Bay and the Florida Keys and then slide it back over Florida before going North to see the beaches of Jacksonville. IF it develops earlier sucking in that high octane fuel over the Gulfstream waters shown below. Great site by the way to bookmark or whatever we do now days, don't lose it! It will come in handy as the season progresses and heats up like the 87 degree water near Florida Bay.

https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/tropical#Water_Temperatures-WX



Now look at those models again and see what I mean.
Until it closes off a tight center and develops.
Models will continue to offer odd solutions.
Soon the track becomes more set in stone.
That's happening this morning.
With each model run..


Note last night we had swirly pasta for dinner.
OLD but worth seeing how we have progressed


When models seem strange.
Give them some time.
Nothing going to surprise anyone....
...as 98L is on Miami radar.



Below we have a new player in the MDR
Given 20% for now on introduction.
Models have been consistently developing this wave.
Some models lose it and some maintain it.


Where is it going?
I don't want to say connect the dots but....
it's a game many play.


I'll discuss this later today.
For now... know it's there.
Know there are more waves behind it.



And lastly we come to our Old Miss Chantal.
Still has 30 MPH winds ....
...and a closed circulation.





Models for 98L

Taking a wide view here to start with....
Note the Tropical Wave in the Atlantic Westbound.
That new wave is our NEW area in YELLOW
Cluster of convection just East of Florida.
Gulf of Mexico Blob.
Frontal Boundary NC/VA

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Water Vapor Loop

GOES16-TAW-08-900x540.gif (900×540)

You can see the Upper Level Low now spinning off Carolinas
Way off in the Atlantic.
It looks like a dark hurricane.
You can also see the wave closer to Africa that just came off.

Gulf of Mexico and Florida

GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000.gif (1000×1000)

This blob in the Gulf of Mexico remains the mystery.
It remains anchored there every day.
Flares up, dies down, flares up.
Now you see me....
...now you don't.
Note you can see 98L far right FLARING UP.
That's because it's sucking in high octane...
...from the Gulfstream.

My Bottom Line this morning.

1. Watch what happens close in with 98L visiting Florida currently.
2. If you live in the Carolinas know 98L will be visiting you soon enough.
3. Watch the MDR wave as it moves towards the Islands.
4. The Gulf of Mexico bears watching really. Models are busy but in real time maybe something.


5. I'm going to remind you AGAIN... the set up this year keeps bugging me as it creates a possible Hurricane Donna like scenario in that a tropical wave moving WNW close to where 99L is now moving up over the islands could do a similar track through the Florida Straits or Keys, hook back towards the general Tampa area and then sling shot back across Florida or Georgia and make a run up the coast. Why you ask? Because every wave has come close to doing that so far this year and we also have that added ingredient of Cold Fronts that pull anything South of them North and Northeast. Yes they can also grab something and take it out to sea. We can pray, if you pray go for it... it's a crap shoot sort of game this year as fronts appear and hurricanes develop. 


Donna above.
Close up of models for 98L below.


I am not saying this is Donna.
And I am not saying that exact repeat happens.
I'm concerned on the pattern.
You can also get a traffic jam in the Gulfstream like 1954




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1954_Atlantic_hurricane_season
#/media/File:1954_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

Something to think on.
We have many more storms down the road.
Real storms as in HURRICANES
Probably Major Hurricanes coming ....

As we leave PreSeason Football behind...
...prime time begins real soon.
Stay tuned.
I'll update in real time later today.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Follow me there for real time updates.
I'll be on Twitter today ...
...and playing at www.spaghettimodels.com.
Check it out and keep informed on the storms.


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posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:53 AM 0 comments