Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, November 04, 2019

Tropics on Back Burner This Morning. Small Town Sunday in the Carolinas. Fall Colors Beginning to Peak Through...Rumors & Wishes About Snow.... I Dusted Off My Fake Fireplace Heater.... Yeah, That Happened.





Sometimes a trip out into North Carolina small towns does provide a measure of inspiration that may or may not be used in a novel but does it matter? Inspiration is inspiration and watching people doing things they love be it making art or brewing coffee beans they roast themselves in the Foothills of the Carolinas is what life is all about. Doing things you love. An artist hired to work the Street Fair that usually has live musicians but hired an artist to paint live shared that opportunity with some local artists who set up their paint and boards and painted in the Carolina sunshine while people mingled about enjoying the beauty of the day and watching people doing something they love. Big thanks to https://www.onicasart.com/ for the vision of artistic creativity on display in real time. Check out his paintings, if you have the money and love one buy one!

 I had a very nice Sunday and sharing that with y'all this morning as the tropics are dead currently though there is a chance that something will pop up and surprise you later in the month. Ever be at a pond or a pretty canal in Miami somewhere and suddenly some fish pops out of nowhere jumping out of the water and you aren't sure you saw it or imagined it? That's kind of what the tropics are in November... wait for it, wait for it, wait for it... "WOW DID THAT JUST HAPPEN?" and then it's gone, poof... and you wonder if you imagined it and you wait to see the fish jump again and it's moved on down the canal somewhere else. It's kinda like that in the tropics in November.

Monday morning staring me in the face after a very nice Sunday out in Pittsboro one of the nicer small towns in North Carolina and we have many so that's saying a lot. Watched the Carolina Panthers beat Tennessee that oddly had Tannehill playing quarterback (luckily for the Panthers) and on a nearby screen in a cute neighborhood sports bar in Cary... watched the Miami Dolphins actually win a football game. This was followed by a food splurge I will not go into details but let it suffice to say I had Turkey, Stuffing, Mashed Potatoes and Pumpkin Pie for dessert because I wanted to... and I did.

It was a full kind of Sunday, from wearing boots and winter like clothing listening to Country Music at a Street Fair then going over to the nearby by Trike Rodeo (really) with a Food Truck Rodeo where I found some fantastic coffee roasted locally. Incredible coffee if you are out that way or can buy online... best coffee I have had in ages and I'm very difficult to please when it comes to coffee. I may be a bit of a coffee snob just being honest.

https://www.aromaticroasters.com/about I had a Caramel Latte that was rich in Espresso and Caramel. https://www.instagram.com/aromaticroasters/?hl=en They had some Molasses Crinkles from another local place (sorry forgot the name) that led to a discussion on something called the Boston Molasses Flood and trust me if you are into history you really need to Google that. You can also check out my pictures on Instagram with the most flavorful Latte I have had in ages.



It's November and apparently I'm supposed to be writing a Novel but I'm blogging and that's just fine because my blog is my diary and there isn't much to talk on tropically this morning. Everyone anywhere geographically close to where there is a sliver of a chance of snow falling on any given day in Winter dreams of snow in November...and this year many people will have their dreams come true. It snowed out by the Appalachian State Football Game briefly over the weekend and online meteorologists are hyping the chance of snow in Carolina this coming week. To be fair on air meteorologists are hinting at snow somewhere near you this coming week.

So I'm just going to say ....using North Carolina as an example.... North Carolina is a big, long, wide state and up in the mountains if a cold front gets close enough it can and will snow and that's not Global Warming or your prayers coming true it's just a matter of Geography. You see not only is North Carolina long and wide it's got tall mountains along it's Western backbone and well between the cold weather coming down from the North and the mountains being high it snows early. That doesn't mean it will snow in Charlotte or Raleigh or Wilmington down by the beach but someone could get snow. Last year it snowed in Raleigh in November and then pathetically didn't snow at all the rest of the winter. Let's hope that doesn't happen again.

Between hype and wishing you'll find me. Of course part of me always wants snow. Part of me wants a hurricane to track or even a tropical storm or heck I'd even take an Invest but I may or may not get either but no one outlawed wishing so just leave me alone and let me do my thing. I might even write because it's November and they have that "make you feel guilty you ain't writing a novel NaNoWriMo" that has great alliteration as does Tannehill in Tennessee.
https://www.nanowrimo.org/

So I'm going to do what I love today and watch some weather loops, read some Tolstoy (yes I wrote that) and make some To Do Lists because being a Capricorn and attempting to organize my life makes me happy even if it's just an illusion; sometimes illusions are good. Do what you love and love what you do and be kind to people today.

al_rCUMP_048.gif (600×710)

You know where to look in November for tropical action, so just putting this here as a gentle reminder it's not over til it's over. Maybe I'll write something more than a blog this November, it's only November 4th I don't have to make that decision today. Do I?


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... Sometimes you gotta get out of the City.
And go out to the Country or a small town. 
And just do your thing.
Or see others enjoying life.
Walking around NYC is like that too!
People watching... leaf watching.
Weather Watching ;)


Long version of that song.
Telling u that town rocks on Saturday Night too!
Some great Taverns that play Live Music.

Showing lyrics because.
Words are important...











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Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Gulf Moisture Swept Up By the Approaching Front... Halloween Around the Corner. Then Comes November... Do You Like Candy Corn?



Only official game in town.
It's actually Invest 99L but...
...not being advertised.
Just being watched.
Ships at sea and all that.


It's pretty. Very there.
NHC doesn't seem to care.
So just pointing it out for posterity sake

The moisture in the GOM is shown below.
I didn't talk much on it.
It was obviously not going to get a name.
It's a player in the game.
Oomphs up the moisture in the next front.
It's a component of weather ahead for the South.



This is the pattern.
This is the purpose of Gulf moisture currently.
And it's good because many places need rain.
North Carolina needs it badly.

Just tropical moisture being swept up fast in the flow towards the cold front moving across the US on it's way towards bringing me a bit of cooler weather (in theory) as those in the North are getting the threat of snow, ice and those in the South are getting rain. We are having Fall mornings and summer like days as the thermometer climbs at Noon. I'd complain but friends in Florida are complaining about temperatures still in the low 90s so I'll shut up on complaining about the low 80s.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

We all see weather personally.
We look from our own perspective.
Or maybe we check where our parents live..
....or our children.
Or where we want to travel to next.


Raleigh expecting a low of 38 on Friday.
Says 73 today but trust me will be higher.
Every day we surpass the projected high.
Nights are beautiful.

In California winds are gusting hurricane strength.

If you want to follow LA weather or news.
Best source there is online.




Surfed around and came on this and I knew..
...where it was as I'd know the place in my dreams.
Sepulveda Pass on the 405 Freeway.

Winds can bring drought, rain or famine.
The many sides of weather and the atmosphere.

So that's it for today.
I have things to do.
And places to go.
And nothing calling to me tropically.

KYAAR is doing things on the other side of the world.
Beautiful to watch and many are....
and the beat goes on.




So that's it for today.
I said that already.
Had this song stuck in my mind.
One line "swept away"
Feel silly, figured out it was the Carrie Underwood Song.
It was "blown away"...
...maybe some "swept away" song somewhere?
Music running through my head always.
So leaving y'all with that.

Hope your weather is beautiful.
Watch fronts that are dragging slow ...
..and dying out over warm water.
But as always if there is shear there.
Nothing happens.
Deep Caribbean is usually the November arena.
So let's let things go where they flow.
And enjoy this spooky week!

Hope you have a happy Halloween.
What is a happy Halloween?
Your favorite friends?
Or your favorite candies?
Or your favorite spooky drink?

My favorite spooky song is obvious.




Cute tweet today.
A candy corn weather map below.
Whole tweet shown above.


I have a brother in Greece who loves candy corn.
So virtually sending it to him here.
Creative map.
Gotta love Candy Corn.


Much love,
BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instragram


It's a bit of a dark song.
But I love the weather references....

"no storm clouds gather in her eyes"




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Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Low Chances in the BOC ... Fronts Rule This Week.. N ATL Gales.... State Fair in North Carolina.




Tropics Sunday Night.
Small chances of development....
.... just typical for this time of year.

Fronts and convection near the Yucatan.



Also typical this year
fronts on the move.
Marching across the USA
One after another.


allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

This is the next few days.
A front enters....
...a front exits.
... Next front enters.
Cold fronts become warm fronts.
We watch curiously...
...while enjoying the cooler weather.


This last severe weather outbreak in Texas...
...many thought that would be part of a tropical system.
But instead we had Nestor...
not that strong, but a player.

Many thought this next strong front..
...would sweep up a tropical system.
The opportunity is there in theory.
But in reality ... well reality bites.
Still an interesting set up.
So watching it.


It's interesting that Cranky thinks...
...it's interesting.

So what will be we have to see.
I'll be back to updating every day.
System or Invest or just the pattern.
Season end son November 30th.

I don't think it's all over.
But I'll admit my "to do list"
Is filled with non tropical stuff.
And whatever forms will be random
Or your typical system at the end of a front.
In the Caribbean.

What really steals the attention tonight..
..is that huge low moving across the Atlantic.


Watching models you just stare.
This is a signature also this year.
Euro shows that...

Takes my breath away looking at that.

GFS  shows it.
Also some weather down in BOC.
Again typical.


Euro shows this possibility.


Moisture on both sides of Mexico.
Kind of like what gave us Nestor.

While enjoying the cooler weather.
Fair weather for the State Fair..
...enjoying pumpkin everything.
I'll watching models and loops.

The holidays were beautiful here in Raleigh.
The expected bad weather went South...
...and North.
Tornado warnings down to the South of me.
We had a fast moving squall line.
Then blue skies and cooler air.




Thanks for your patience and it's always nice interacting with you all on Twitter and in private groups discussing weather both tropical and otherwise. Love weather and luckily I'm in Carolina enjoying Fall and all that Fall has to offer.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram



Cute video... stick with it... you really get the reality of the fair. People go for the food, not the rides... I walk around taking pictures and taking it all in...





Okay...the rides are fun but the concerts and fire works are great too.













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Friday, October 04, 2019

Enjoy the Weekend. NHC Watching 2 Areas with Low Yellow Chances. It's Just a Matter of Time Before Something Forms... Til Then... Enjoy the Weekend. Check Back Monday ;)




The NHC Main Page is sort of a Maze ...
...an interactive game we play.
From June 1st to November 30th.


Area in the Yucatan down low on probabilities.
Never believed in the westbound system myself.
As I've said I'm watching for Mid October myself.
Generally if something is going to happen...
....that's the watch time frame.

As always late in the season we have Mid Atlantic Systems.

But when you click on the main screen for Day 2.
You get this satellite imagery below.
That tells the real story.


And addendum to that is my video below.
Lots to look at as it's not cloudless.
But nothing impending about to come together.


Dabuh God Bless Him is always watching.
And he knows, he's wise.
Meteorologists are great with hard to earn degrees.
But unless they know the water and the clouds...
...and the can smell the weather.
It's all academics.


One of my friends at the NHC for years....
...takes awesome photographs of clouds and storms.
He studies them on the computer and out his window.
Bill Gray flew into huge thunderstorms....
...studying them, doing research.
Others like Wes below love to share images.


And what I'll say about that comment is this.....
....no the sun wasn't "kind" to us in Raleigh yesterday.
But it's a last kiss... 
a fair ye well as we move towards Fall.

I went out to watch the sunset last night too.


It was warm, beautiful.
And the sky was Fall Colors.

Like the little yellow leaves dropping in the Carolinas.
So to does the NHC drop yellow circles on the map.
And some have potential to go orange....
...maybe even red like a sugar maple.

Hurricane Season is really a Fall Sport....
...as that's when things ramp up and slide down.

I'll be honest.
Models do show things out in the Atlantic.
Maybe a wave off of Africa.
That SW Caribbean bugaboo.
But nothing to worry or think on this weekend.


A large area of convection remains anchored in place.
A drop of color by the Yuctan reminds us to watch.
Further East we have a wave train.
A low riding wave train.
One of those wave can get into the SW Carib....
...and the light the spark.
You know that song....
Come on baby light my fire?


And a little ghost in the Caribbean goes BOO!


So debating what song to sing.

October is about waiting....
Waiting for fall to really begin.
Waiting for your football team to win.
Waiting for the World Series.
Waiting for Halloween.
Waiting for snow season.
And the list of waiting goes on.

Stop and take a minute to wonder....
..and watch the world go by and enjoy it's beauty.
My daughter landed in Asheville NC this morning.
She took a pic from the plane and said...
"I love it here and I haven't left the airport!"
Funny I know that feeling.

So take a mental picture.
Breathe.
Exhale.
Enjoy.
Have a beautiful weekend.

Let's think on next week ... next week.
It's that time of year we wait and watch...
...and things begin to change.

Yes it was 100 degrees in Raleigh yesterday...
...but it's going to turn cooler.
It's just a matter of time.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

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Friday, September 27, 2019

Tropics Friday. Karen's Chapter Ending. Lorenzo For Now Spinning Beautiful. What Else is Down the Road in the Tropics? Time Will Tell in this Circle Game.


We can see Karen slowly coming apart.
Lorenzo taking up half the ocean it seems.





Hard to find a "Tropical Storm" where Karen is...
Lorenzo yeah...
The ULL is off the coast of FL.. visible.

Cones and facts below.


Karen's ever diminishing cone above.
Lorenzo below.



Lorenzo's wind path...
...far from land.

Discussion.


Some fluctuations in intensity are expected....

The last chapters are being written on Karen currently as the NHC has downgraded her to Tropical Depression status ... kind of breaking the news to her gently I suppose... as we all knew this was happening though not sure Karen expected it. Karen has always been able to "pulse up" when needed, but as we saw with the overwhelming shear aimed at Jerry... she too will respond in kind and in theory go quietly off into the books for 2019. She was always a questionable tropical storm vs a strong tropical disturbance, though to stay together so long there was probably some center there holding her together even if the NHC and recon had problems at times trying to pin it do
wn. Karen impacted several places with strong, heavy rains, flooding and creating power outages.


Good discussion from NHC. You can see from the image above this chapter seems to be ending for Karen and Lorenzo will take a long time to come apart as it's incredibly big, beautiful and far out at sea not hurting anyone.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/
MIATCDAT3+shtml/271442.shtml

Lorenzo is still "oh my gosh gorgeous" but on it's way, stair stepping down in intensity as hurricanes like people have a prime period in their life that can never be totally maintained but he will be remembered for being strong like Hurricane Gabrielle was years ago in 1989. 


Lorenzo above.
Gabrielle below.


Note hos similar Lorenzo and Gabrielle look.
And yesterday Lorenzo looked more like Gabrielle.

Link to info on a forgotten intense hurricane.
Overshadowed by it's brother Hugo in 1989

And looking forward.

Remember to watch the tail end of fronts.
We are scheduled to have strong fronts soon.
And strong fronts race through and then...
...go flat somewhere off the East Coast.
Sometimes in the Gulf of Mexico.

There's a lot of model innuendo...
..and discussion by good meteorologists.
On something forming in mid October.
Don't hold me to October 15th...
2nd week to end I'd say.
Weather is FLUID.
So it dances to it's own tune.
We try and keep up.
Models adjust in real time.
Then the NHC adjusts in real time.
Being honest they are very model driven now.
Being honest we all are.

Going to rest the rest of the day.
And I'll update Sunday.
I was pretty sick.
Why do we say "pretty sick" I don't know.
No one is "pretty" when that sick.
But on the road to recovery.
Even without make up I look better than Karen.

So models for way out into the future.
And know any front that delivers a punch...
...could deliver tornadoes somewhere.
...and then possibly tropical development.
Time will tell.



Far off in the distance images of GFS and EURO.
Both show a dangling cold front...
..parked over warm water.
So keep that in mind while...
...looking for pumpkins this week.
Or doing the Jewish New Year.
Fall... end of summer.
Beginning of the new year.
Winter off in the distance...
Summer moves into the rear view mirror.
Transition of time.
Prime time for Major Hurricanes way too often.

2 long term images from www.windy.com
When you have time they are good to donate to.
As Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com says..
I give a $5 tip at a restaurant....
... give them a tip they are helpful.
That goes with Levi Cowan too.
Cost them money to run those sites.
I write... no real costs involved.
Even if I give valuable information.
I write the way Mike talks.
We can both go on and on forever.

So where do we go from here?
I'm going offline.
Letting antibiotics knock my infection out.
Now that the tooth issue is gone.
And I mean that literally...
The sinus issue is center stage.
Antibiotics bugging my stomach.
I'll save you the details.
But I had a huge headache last night.
So stayed offline...

Resting, drinking tea.
(not too warm because oral surgery)
And hey got lots of Halo Ice Cream!
Watching fall color from my window.
The view from my bed.


That tree rarely shows color until late October.
It's early this year.
I think Dorian may have shaken it up.
I remember after Matthew that happened.
Or winter will come soon...
Heard a rumor of 40s and 50s October 4th or 5th.
Time will tell.

But know while y'all complaining how hot it is..
...on the East Coast and in the Deep South.
It's cold and stormy with early snow in the NW.
Eventually winter will show up here too!


Have a beautiful Fall Weekend!
Or an Indian Summer Weekend!
Enjoy the experience... 
... it's part of a change.

Karma is funny. In 1989 I thought on naming a baby Gabrielle if it was a girl as I was expecting and Gabrielle was a beautiful storm. It was a boy, his name is Mendy (common name in Chabad) and then I found out my Great, Great, Great Grandfather's name was Gabriel doing Ancestry and laughed thinking how close we were... a few months ago my daughter had a baby boy and her husband is an Israeli and they chose the name Gabriel for my grandson. I told my son-in-law that was amazing, you knew it was a family name? He smiled and shook his head no and said "what goes around comes around" and it's true. So I ended up with a grandson Gabriel vs a daughter named Gabrielle. Both good names and yet many forget Gabrielle because 1989 was all about Hugo. 2019 is far from over... and come December looking back we will see if any hurricane comes along that rivals Dorian and though that sounds impossible... last year this time of year we had no thoughts on Michael becoming a Cat 5 landfalling hurricane. The tropics always hold surprises, much like life.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram


Ps... I don't go personal as much these days.. but my daughter Miriam (Gabriel's mother) is an artist as is her brother and another sister... art runs in our veins whether we are painting, writing or creating music. The video reminded me of Miriam doing art somewhere... won't say where...
And sorry for any typos, writing today was therapeutic (it's a blog.. diary online) and going to leave it however it ends up... so hope you enjoyed.



My brother Ron took a picture...
...he's into photography.


Big circle there.. like an eye.
Miami Marine Stadium....
...waiting to come to life again.
Artists kept it alive.
Old pictures.
Miriam on the left and Rivky on the right.
Not twins... but they used to play the twin game.


We're captive on the carousel of time... 
enjoy the ride always.






















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Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Updated. Tornado Warning Sugar Land Texas... Storm System Headed Towards Houston Now Tornado Watch UP---. Halloween and Wicked Weather in the South Coming to Your State Soon ... What's Your Favorite Candy? What's Your Favorite Costume? Twister Movies... And Hollywood Inspiration





Really feels like some sick joke.
A Tornado Warning in Sugar Land Texas on Halloween.
Lot's of tricks Mother Nature has up her sleeve.
This storm is moving towards the Houston area now.

Don't say I didn't warn ya..
Been much talk on this system the last few days.
But it probably got lost in the news cycle.


Thought I'd put this up as it's good to remember.
Halloween comes with a treat...
..tomorrow has some tricks in store.
Or late tonight in some places.
Good read below if you are in the areas above.


As for me I spent the day at the Mall.
Very early holiday shopping.
Big family....gotta start early!
I may go as an Angel for Halloween ;)

Oh and I voted



* * *



This is foreshadowing..........
But this post is really about Halloween.
Halloween and the movies... 
And weather... of course.




A kind of cult classic. You either love it or hate it. But everyone loves to be scared by movies with tornadoes in them. People who won't watch "thriller movies" will sit spellbound through movies with mean tornadoes that rain down hail or metal and as long as the twister is spinning people are mesmerized.


Why I don't know. Don't blame it on Twister, blame it on the Wizard of Oz that held a generation spellbound and then held their children spellbound as well. Was it the "yellow brick road" or the "bluebirds flying?" or the "wicked witch of the west" an iconic forever symbol of a wicked witch. Of course Glinda is always the good witch, but that's not how most people dress up for Halloween.

In vivid color and ruby shoes Dorothy and Toto entered a world where they were protected by the Scarecrow and her other friends from the Wicked Witch of the West.



In 1996 a movie was made with special effects that made the sounds of the Twister come alive and with some comedy, romance and a measure of terror audiences were held spellbound once again. And thousands of kids went online into weather chat rooms looking to be meteorologists. True too. Most didn't but some did and the legacy continues. Listen to that Twister growl... sounds you would normally hear in an old classic like "The Birds" but this was Mother Nature showing her mean side.


Red inside is green is NOT good.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)


This coming week Mother Nature may once again show her mean side along the Deep South and along the Gulf of Mexico states as warm air rushes up to meet a cold front. It won't have a "name" but it may produce tornadoes and severe weather and in some places it's possible it will come in the dark of the night.

Wouldn't it be lovely if Superman could save the day and protect us from Mother Nature when she's in a bitchy, witchy mood the way he saved us time and again from Lex Luthor? Lex Luthor always trying to control the weather, because he knew if you could control the weather it gives you the ultimate edge.



In truth Weather People try to save you all the time, but until the sky begins to get dark, the wind starts to blow and your App or WhatsApp goes crazy no one takes them seriously :(

One thing I learned in North Carolina is that for some odd reason.... nighttime tornadoes happen in Raleigh more than any other time of the day. Kind of the reverse of in Camelot where it only rains at Midnight. And in parts of the South severe weather could be a big problem, yet everyone is thinking on Hurricane Season leaving us and Winter arriving soon on the scene. This Autumn may end up being the Twister Season that went whoosh with the wind this past Spring when they usually appear out on the Plains. But in the Fall that happens also, as warm Gulf of Mexico air rushes up towards diving fronts and when there is a strong Southern Jet setting up .... get ready because we may have an Autumn to remember with dangerous weather.

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif

Hurricanes don't work as well in most movies as do Earthquakes and Tornadoes.

Watch the weather carefully this Autumn and while you are watching perhaps the 2018 Hurricane Season will squeeze out one last storm somewhere.

Something to think on while eating candy or drinking punchy drinks or dressed up as your favorite Super Hero. Does anyone dress up as Kryptonite I wonder? Isn't it funny that it's green like the Emerald City? And the planet probably blew up when some bad guy like Darth Vader who hit Alderan with the Death Star that actually was green and then the planet exploded in a million pieces.



Where would Halloween be without Hollywood and candy?





Have a wonderful time wherever you are and whatever you do even if you sit up at home watching old movies or listening to broadcasts of the War of the Worlds. Really the day before Halloween and no one wondered on that? Hmnnn  It was a different world. The biggest "fake news story" of them all.

https://www.livescience.com/63958-war-of-the-worlds-aliens.html

Whatever world you are in today and tonight enjoy it. And watch out for severe weather approaching as it will. Oscar is off to see the Wizard faster than a speeding bullet and wicked weather is coming to the South over the next few days. Be prepared for it. Party today, prepare tomorrow!


Besos BobbiStorm

Ps ... as for me... maybe a flapper or maybe Cat Ballou. Lord knows the shoe fits :) Would anyone realize I was Cat Ballou? Yeah, someone would. Either way it's about having fun. Fun is good. There's another things in the world that are not fun. Today is a good day to have fun. 50 seconds or so in one of my favorite scenes... iconic! Ha!








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