PR Earthquake - Spring Like Severe Weather Outbreak in Winter in South - Winter 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/07/us/puerto-rico-earthquake.html

Puerto Rico just can't get a break.

Well the Earth is breaking...

...rocking and rolling today.

Yes, PR is earthquake country.

We hear about Hispaniola more...

...but you got mountains you have earthquakes.

Fault lines run through the Caribbean.

Hurricanes attack the Caribbean.

Jamaica has had earthquakes and hurricanes together.

You learn a lot from studying history and geology.

http://www.ucrgeode.com/intern-anthony-tallent/2018/3/5/caribbean-fault-mapping

Here's your general video below.

It began yesterday and continues on today.

Aftershocks continue today.

Hurricanes don't have aftershocks.

When they are gone... it's over.

And you clean up.

Earthquakes don't work that way.

It goes without saying they need help.

Charity and prayers.

www.redcross.org

Or give your favorite charity there you trust.

I've been back in Raleigh getting back into a routine, unpacking, cleaning up, doing laundry and trying to remember where I was before I left. For all the journals I keep I really should have one that says "After Traveling ... Get Back on Track Fast" as every wonderful trip means coming back to the every day routine and research I work on as well as every day routines. I have a trip to Seattle coming up but the date is not set just yet. Miami, Monsey ... am I really back in Raleigh? Yes, and to be honest I like being home in Raleigh these days. The air is cooler and it's easier to breathe yet today we are hovering between "nice ... feels cold" and "why does it feel so raw today?" and I know why it's because rain is moving in and the skies are gray and it's a North Carolina Winter Day when you feel if it's this cold it should snow but the cold front is dry this time so all you get is cold, winter rain.

It's been an odd and interesting winter but so far snow has had a problem finding it's way to the Mid Atlantic or the South while sliding along just North of NYC and attacking New England as to be honest Winter is supposed to do because that way we have small towns covered in snow that look like a Greeting Card promising a Winter Wonderland. When you live South of the Mason Dixie Line you got to be realistic about how much snow you are going to get in any given Winter but still it is NORTH Carolina so the chances are there ... somewhere... sometime...distantly down the road. I have a friend in North Dakota, I miss that friend... should I go visit her?  With every week that passes things change subtly and supposedly change is in the air...

To be honest.... the mountains get some snow.

But everyone else got rain.

Speaking of rain in the South.

The set up for the next cold front....

...and abundant tropical moisture.

Is creating a Spring Like Set up...

No it's not Spring... 

We haven't had winter yet.

But it's that sort of set up.

Progression of fronts....

...and a flow from the Gulf of Mexico.

Watch the next one down the road..

Being honest I am not 24/7 watching loops.

I watch... I do a model or a two.

I read a bit from people I respect.

Then I try not to obsess.

Not my neck of the woods... I don't care.

Being honest.. weather is locational.

Watching other people get snow is not fun.

Would @icyclone chase a thunderstorm?

Because he's bored and there's no Hurricanes to chase?

Nah... neither would I.

I love it all ...don't get me wrong.

But I want the weather ... I want snow.

I'm less a dreamer or watcher as much as doer.

And if I can't "do" weather today the way I want.

I'm probably doing something else.

I do have hobbies ya know...

As is the earthquake as it's in our Tropical World.

Wrong Earth Science but Mother Nature does her thing.

Luckily we don't have the fires they do in Australia.

Somewhere Mother Nature is always throwing..

a temper tantrum.

You can watch the forecast below.

The reliable forecast.

Short term vs long term.

Fronts are making it into Florida.

They are making it into North Carolina.

But for now we be getting rain not snow.

The middle of the country is getting RAIN.

Insert song "Rain on your wedding day"

That is a lot of rain.

Checking with Spaghetti Models

(which I always do every day)

Winter with it's snow is way up North.

But it's cold in North Carolina today.

Then it warms up to "why am I here?"

I stay here hoping for now.

No snow I should hit the road.

Myrtle Beach Hotels are sending me ads.

"Please come...we are open and cheap!"

Basically that's what they say... 

To be honest I'm tired of hype.

A lot of hype on the news lately.

A lot of hype in the weather.... 

When you have a real strong WINTER pattern.

You don't need hype do you?

It's there... in your face... happening.

Like "Oh my gosh" ;)

Wait a few days you'll see.

Today we have a thin sliver of a front.

I won't say what that system looks like to me.

Use your imagination.

But you see the real problem is the next one.

Down the road still.

Image above from Crown Weather.

You can subscribe to www.crownweather.com

He goes into great detail.

He's good!

That graphic is from yesterday's email.

Become a subscriber and you will get information.

Not hype... or symbols on Apps that come and go.

But the real deal... 

On Twitter.......

Cranky is also the real deal.

If you can understand his maps.

You are lucky because they are so good.

I can, I love them.

I love maps...as most of you know.

Everyone has their own needs.

Everyone likes a different style.

Good meteorological maps are always in style.

As for me I kind of feel like this today.

"That's the system now I'm outta here..."

Occurs to me that's a Mars symbol.

I told you .. I have other hobbies.

6.6 Puerto Rico Earthquake, Solar Storm & Major FLOOD, ICE & TORNADO STORMhttps://t.co/UqVmRB6crz

— The King of America (@NewThor) January 7, 2020

Also on Twitter...

I enjoy his videos.

Maybe I just like his voice.

Seriously... he knows weather...

...and astrology and I said I have other hobbies.

Historically storms do show up during the Solstice.

And often they show up during Eclipse times.

I don't ask why... I just watch and notice.

It's January far from Hurricane Season.

I'm into watching and noticing.

And enjoying good music...

I'll be back.

Just checking in... looking around.

Saying hello and wishing you all well.

There's nothing happening in the Tropics today.

Not my tropics.

Down the road winter comes back.

Cold air colliding with warm air.

Is always messy.

Happy 2020.

There's a Lunar Eclipse coming up.

Maybe I'll blog about it in a few days.

Full Wolf Moon Eclipse....

Yeah...

https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/lunar/2020-january-10

Do some research...

...I'll be back soon enough.

Have an incredible day!

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... thinking of getting a blonde wig like that for Purim.

Hmnnn kind of curly ... hmnnn.

;)

Tropics Quiet Today. Danger on the Plains from Tornadoes & Flooding Remain. Thoughts on How We Convey Real Time Weather Threats Referencing Article by Marshall Shepherd

A quick perusal of Spaghetti Models shows there are no hurricanes today.

There is not even the ghost of Subtropical Storm Andrea.

Nothing is expected to form in the next 5 days.

Okay in truth some convection does remain....

But it is not expected to reform so let's move on.

There are things to think on down the road.

Areas in the Caribbean that sometimes flare up in early June.

They flare up there and move North into the Gulf of Mexico.

And sometimes they flare up there and move into the E Pacific.

Convection is congregating down there.

Again it moves into the Epac where a storm may form.

I could tell you models have been a little awkward lately.

A few keep predicting development down there.

Long range models are meant to be visited often.

They are for entertainment purposes only.

The system on the Plains is still dangerous ...

...and still on the move.

It's far from over.

With Memorial Day Weekend coming remember this...

It's a good time to start preparing for Hurricane Season.

Today's blog is about a look back at this week in weather.

The high expectations for long tracking tornadoes... 

... and the reality that tornadoes did happen.

They were not long tracking EF5 Twisters.

But they destroyed people's lives.

And yet people yelled "busted forecast!!"

The forecast for dangerous weather verified.

The problem is how we convey what is dangerous.

The problem is our personal expectation of dangerous.,

The dangerous situation there continues.

And hurricane season is just around the corner.

The article below inspired me to write this today.

I'll talk models and satellite loops tomorrow.

I want to revisit some tropical weather history...

History repeats, it's good to learn from history.

The link to this article is below.

It's an article worth reading.

It's especially valuable as we head into the Hurricane Season.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/05/21/three-problems-with-the-word-bust-during-real-time-weather-threats/#290dc83f5338 This is an excellent article that should open up our minds as to how we perceive real time threats or feel the need to communicate "what is dangerous" to the general public again often in real time. As the 2019 Hurricane Season is around the corner I find the need often to remind you to prepare for hurricane season. It is especially difficult at times after someone somewhere puts out predictions on how this may or may not be a busy or quiet hurricane season. These often circulated articles announce that the water is cold in the Middle of the Atlantic Ocean or Saharan Dust is blowing in the wind keeping the hurricane season weak or El Nino may or may not be leaving written often to capture the public's attention and get retweeted online. Public perception of danger is sometimes mitigated or heightened by these headlines and often there is a "boy who cried wolf" issue that arises later in the season when a hurricane veers away from a potential landfall and stays safely out in the Gulf Stream only kicking up big waves at the beach or when long tracking EF5 tornadoes do not form and people in the warned area let their guard down.

Long paragraph I know, but this is seriously a problem in today's world where people scroll through tweets or images on Instagram. Back in the the day people would complain that television news people wrote hyped up headlines or news promos that were merely "sound bites" to get you to check back at 11 PM for the late news. This is really a communication issue as old as time as I am sure somewhere cave people argued over dramatic cave drawings of lightning hitting a horse that was way over the top and not realistic. No disrespect to cave people I personally always loved the GEICO cave guy the best!

It's a problem as old as time in ways, and yet in today's very fast paced world it has it's own new unique issues. In today's world we have issues not problems. After a Presidential election years back it was discovered that by releasing early predictions when the East Coast polls closed on National News it had negatively impacted voter turn out on the West Coast. Many interviewed said "why bother voting as we were told who won already" and that's sad but it happened. News stations then agreed they would wait until the polls in the Pacific Time Zone were closed before making early predictions based on exit polls. If you are expecting large wedge tornadoes to be on the ground wiping out towns such as Moore and no big, huge EF5 wedge tornadoes wipe out Moore or Oklahoma City then suddenly we read on Facebook, Twitter and in our multiple Whats App groups that the forecast was a bust. This irresponsible message mistakenly gives many in the warned area the message to "stop worrying about it" when tornadoes were indeed on the rampage late into the night and early morning hours. Then those same people online and go negative about the media delivering the message saying that it was all hype and nothing more. The truth is the set up was there, there was potential and it was a forecast that thankfully didn't verify in the way that many thought it would.

The proper reaction should be to be thankful it was not worse.

And to be aware it's an ongoing dangerous situation.

As Reed tweeted yesterday.

Again it was only a "bust" in that long trackers didn't show up.

Other destructive tornadoes showed up.

And the dangers continue.

We are very happy the set up busted.

Again the "set up" that the forecast was based on.

Perception here is the devil in the details.

No it was not hype that the possibility was there for long tracking tornadoes, but there was also the potential for short flare ups of multiple tornadoes everywhere and the ongoing inherent risk of flooding. In the same way that if someone else has surgery you may think of it as minor surgery if it happens to you it is major surgery. If your town was severely devastated by a short lived, strong tornado you will remember it forever and consider the forecast to not have been a bust for a particularly dangerous situation.

Oddly I think of a Derecho when I think of PDS.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/20120629svrwx

Waveland Mississippi Before and After Katrina.

Waveland's destruction often gets forgotten in the greater picture.

Take a look back at Hurricane Katrina that tore through South Florida as the first in several tropical systems that year to visit Florida, however most people obviously only remember New Orleans when they hear the name Hurricane Katrina. After Florida .... Hurricane Katrina made a second landfall near Waveland in Mississippi creating the slowly evolving horrible levee failure in the New Orleans area. Perception is in the eye of the beholder or whose home personally was damaged. Yes, Katrina was a National Tragedy that made us rethink many things but it was a personal disaster memory for many people far from New Orleans. Hurricanes history teaches us that hurricanes often do that especially the big ones such as Betsy in 1965 and Andrew in 1992 that made double landfalls in both Florida and Louisiana as they traced a path around a very strong high pressure area in the Atlantic that steers them into the Gulf of Mexico for additional landfalls.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Katrina_in_Florida

History does repeat sometimes doesn't it?

The exact details are always a bit different.

Lastly after the fact discussion on a storm being a "bust" is really not necessary as many considered the Hurricane Irma forecast for Florida being wiped off the map a bust because it didn't destroy Miami or Tampa, however tell that to my friend in Big Pine Key who lost the family home and was forced to demolish it's remnants recently. There is always so much hype online and on air regarding large targets such as Oklahoma City in Tornado Season or Miami in the Hurricane Season. While Category 5 Hurricane Michael was in the slow process of coming together down near the Yucatan and Cuba many meteorologists doubted online complaining the forecast was poor and that "this thing is never coming together" in the same way that model forecasts for huge flooding in Houston from Harvey were played down as "garbage runs" and "probably won't happen" and yet the forecast actually played out even worse than forecast. Many tweeted on Twitter how the landfall of Harvey near Rockport seemed not to be that bad.... in the same way back when people watching New Orleans survive the winds of Katrina better than expected went suddenly quiet when the water began to rise.

There is much to think on as we work our way through the rest of the Tornado Season and move towards the Hurricane Season. When a 7.0 earthquake in a large city is first reported by some AP reporter it usually reads "no deaths reported" and we should know that means "no deaths reported yet" as we should not believe everything we read and wait until the rest of the story plays out.

Why the NWS went with the PDS warning? I'm sure it was to err on the side of caution and with concern that a PDS situation could happen. Why the NHC went with upgrading to Subtropical Storm Andrea I don't know, but I am sure they had their reason. It's not my job to second guess these things I prefer reminding you that now is the time to prepare for Hurricane Season before a hurricane is knocking at your door and the store is out of toilet paper, tuna fish and peanut butter! 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

Ask the people who were impacted by a compact, Category 4 Hurricane Charley that seemingly surprised them because the media seemed to imply that Tampa was under the gun and they were in the outer edge of the cone from the NHC. It was not a busted forecast as much as it was not properly communicated that the danger of any small town in that part of the cone in Florida was liable to get the brunt of the hurricane moving parallel to the coastline before turning in towards landfall. 

Something to think on and to remember. No forecast can be 100% correct in the details even though the forecast for dangerous severe weather or a land falling hurricane will verify. Are you prepared is the bigger question?

Read the article linked to above and remember this applies to hurricane season and dramatic warnings on dire danger about to happen and how a busted forecast can have a boomerang danger such as flooding or even worse ignorance of similar warnings the next time a hurricane is headed your way.

Knowledge is power. Find out what you personally need to do to prepare for Hurricane Season.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... Some video below from a friend who passed away but is always remembered from Hurricane Charley. Again... just because Tampa was not the landfall the forecast was not a bust and .... remember that sometime down the road Tampa will get a landfall again as they did in 1921 when a Category 4 hurricane made landfall in October. That is not hype it is merely learning from history. Turn the sound of it you prefer on CycloneJim's video on Category 4 Huricane Charley. 

Tampa Bay 1921 Hurricane not Charley.

Video from Charley below.

Crazy Huge Hail in North Carolina. Yes Size Matters... Cool Weather This Morning. Nasty Weather on the Plains... Then Comes Hurricane Season

To be clear...there is no hurricane today in our basin.

There isn't even a small tropical storm.

Not even a tropical depression.

Yet I'm a really good mood.

Why?

Is that awesome?

Okay it's a kind of denial but loving it.

Windows wide open.....

...fresh air.

Not hot, not humid.

And yesterday I got hail.

Big, huge, hard hitting, heavy hail.

This is a video from online.

Crazy fast hitting hail storm.

This shows why I don't have good video.

I was out in it in my husband's car...

...he really didn't want the hail in the car.

But he was fantastic about going out into it.

And he drove through a heavy white out while...

I was over the top crazy excited loving it.

I love hail.

I don't love hail to destroy your car or crops.

Just something about hail... it's crazy.

So the day began like this....

It was extremely dark outside for 9 am and despite warnings the last few days that we were in for marginal chance of severe weather nothing loomed big on the radar but the air had that feeling to it so I went outside. The sky was heavily cloaked in low, dark clouds. My phone announced a lightning strike hit about five miles from my location. I took a walk, tried to get a feel for the weather without staring at the radar or playing online with friends. I wondered on the man edging the lawn, gardeners out doing their thing with threatening weather didn't seem like a good idea. They were picking up lots of debris from the last late night storm and doing a nice job but using edgers with earphones on listening I suppose to loud music from the way the guy was enjoying himself seemed like flying blind into nasty weather. Suddenly there was this huge, jagged lightning bolt that cut it's way across the sky not far from me at a long, slow angle and then suddenly sliced down with an explosive sound that I'm guessing landed a few blocks away by Ravenscroft athletic field; nice private school with a huge athletic field filled with huge lights that often attract lightning or ravens... depending on the weather. 

My husband yelled downstairs and asked me if that was lightning. I yelled up "yeah" as my heart was suddenly beating fast and he yelled down "good" because honestly otherwise you would have thought a bomb went off somewhere. Raleigh doesn't get lightning storms the way Miami does and so this sort of came out of nowhere. Not a dark, threatening sky but low, heavy gray skies. And then the most incredible downdraft began as the temperature dropped and the breeze began and you could feel that feel in the air. So we left because I wanted to be outside somewhere if we were going to have weather and yet I didn't expect it to happen so fast and again no crazy warnings yet but you could see the radar had a few fast moving rogue cells* moving fast towards me. 

I took this picture and asked my husband if he wouldn't mind just going a few more blocks down to get a better view of the line and as usual he was agreeable :) so we drove another block or two and the whole sky just opened up and the wind began to blow and somewhere you could see a drop of rotation and huge, hard, heavy hailstones began pummeling the area. This system was moving faster than a bat out of hell as the saying goes and as I didn't want the hail all over the car I didn't open the window to get a good picture ... also figuring there were plenty of videos being taken I wanted to enjoy it. I did open the moon roof enough to watch the hail hitting before closing it as it was kind of making my husband concerned. Yes, the hail was that huge and more so voluminous amounts of hail not just one or two here or there as we usually see in Raleigh.

It says officially 1.75 inches in Raleigh.

I'd go with that but it really was the volume.

Trust me though size does matter with hail.

Wind was blowing wildly.

Total white out... could barely see the sidewalk.

Headlights in the white out that looked like thick mist.

And then it was gone.......

Within minutes a tornado warning was posted.

(Thanks....)

And I was nuts, excited and happy and loving it.

I do believe I said something like ...
"Can we do that again!"

And we did but without the hail.. just heavy rain.

Cranky calls them *rogue cells.

Good term.

Fast moving rogue cells.

Going under the radar til the NWS played catch up.

A catch me if you can sort of rogue storm cell.

Further away it was rated EF2 tornado.

Lots of damage.

By us we had immediate flooding ...

....but it ran off fast.

Yeah I love weather.

As for the tropics nothing there now.

But this triangle area needs to be watched.

Down the road.

As long as weather lingers there....

Anything can happen in a few weeks.

I'll be back soon with more real discussion.

I just wanted to record my thoughts.

And I want to get out and enjoy the 55 degree weather.

It's an illusion but I'll gladly take it.

Later in the week it's supposed to be in the high 80s again.

The real story is out on the Plains.

Severe weather for a whole week...

Storm chaser friends in place.

I'm waiting for the tropics to bubble myself...

Everything has it's season.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Follow me for faster updates in real time.

Hurricane Michael Upgraded to Category 5

Image I screenshot of Hurricane Michael before landfall.

Category 5 Hurricane Michael.

Rarely have I ever seen an eye look so real.

The big news today in the world of Tropical Meteorology is that as expected it might be... Hurricane Michael has been upgraded in retrospect after much analysis to have been a Category 5 Hurricane. A very rare event to have a Category 5 Hurricane that close to land and even rarer to have a Category 5 Hurricane make landfall. Everything has been changed now, all those lists of the top five strongest hurricanes to ever make landfall in the Atlantic Basin. And remember again this was a hurricane season that was forecast by many to be relatively quiet due to cooler than warmer temperatures in the breeding grounds of the Mid Atlantic. This is an excellent example to remind you this season when you read headlines and see that mitigating factors may suppress hurricane activity. They are academic discussions and nothing more because hurricanes happen in real time and only in the rear view mirror can we really know what any said hurricane season is after all the storms have ended and the post analysis has been finished. Again the NHC always goes over the storms after the season and decides whether a downgrade or rare upgrade is in order and in this case Hurricane Michael that seemed to almost take on human like features doing things that no hurricane has ever done before... making landfall in that location that late in the Hurricane Season the hurricane with the eye that seemed so real, so intense has not been upgraded to Category 5.

https://www.nola.com/news/2019/04/hurricane-michael-upgraded-to-rare-category-5-storm-at-time-of-landfall.html

Obviously the excitement in the meteorology community is real and despite today's wicked weather traipsing across the Deep South and East Coast.... everyone stopped staring at radars to talk Hurricane Michael. The picture I screenshot from my computer shown above is from the blog post when Michael was intensifying and concerns on destruction at landfall were becoming more real, more obvious and more terrifying. Sadly that terror played out and the destruction was as expected if not even stronger than originally thought it would be. You can see the destruction yourself below.

I'm short on time today as I am busy with preparations for Passover as is my family and many of my friends as well as some of my friends who are busy with preparations for Easter Sunday. It's just that time of year to be honest. As much as we worry on climate change to be honest tornadoes and Easter Weekend have come together too many times to list; the two that come to mind are shown below. I'm hoping and praying the weather will come and go without much trouble but wishing doesn't always make it so.

As for me home in Miami after a nice road trip South.

Saw a beautiful sunrise in Ormond Beach.

And home in Miami for Passover.

Weather today is happening.

Wild as expected and earlier than expected.

www.spaghettimodels.com

A look back at Cat 5 Hurricane Michael

www.hurricanecity.com

Stay safe, stay informed.

Stay happy and have a blessed holiday weekend.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps If your holiday is Passover and you would like to be at a Seder...

There is a link below to try and find one for tonight or tomorrow night.

https://www.chabad.org/holidays/passover/seders_cdo/aid/110005/jewish/Find-a-Passover-Seder-Near-You.htm

Deadly Tornado Devastation on Southern End of Winter Storm in Alabama, Georgia, Florida and South Carolina. Yes it Snowed in NY & Boston. The Two Faces of Winter. At least 23 People Dead Still Many Missing.

Picture comes from the link below.

Please read the article.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2019-03-03/the-latest-official-2-dead-many-hurt-in-apparent-tornado

Today is a humbling day in the weather community that understands the destruction that occurred late yesterday as too many tornadoes to count sliced across the Southern landscape clearing subdivisions, government buildings and turning forests to stubble amidst the rubble. Some got lucky and survived even though their homes were destroyed, some got even luckier and the tornadoes missed their homes or they had what looks today as if it's only minor damage. Tornado damage is random in that it skips one house or block and dead on destroys the next block. And the tornadoes that started in Alabama moved through North Florida, Georgia and into South Carolina before finally fading away.

Today is about search and rescue as they are using drones that can sense heat signatures in the rubble to search for people still alive. Amazing new trick we have to save people who without medical help will die underneath rubble that once may have been their home. There are still people missing across the many towns these tornadoes tramped upon and so any death total you see is liable to climb and remember there are many people in hospitals where doctors and nurses are working to save their lives. It was mentioned several hospitals in the area had cancelled all elective surgeries for today as their operating rooms are filled with survivors as they try to keep those people alive.

Posting this above from the link below because....

I want you to see the variety of structures destroyed.

https://fox13now.com/2019/03/04/at-least-23-dead-after-tornadoes-touch-down-in-alabama-and-georgia/

Yes there were tornadoes and small homes, but there were large structures including an apartment building razed to the ground as were areas of trees ripped from the ground. This is damage you would see from more than a EF-3 I believe but that's for the NWS to decide. The quality of home construction is always taken into effect and these small towns were small towns that pepper the countryside where people live, work and are very much the backbone of America. The rural Deep South can be a beautiful place to live, friendly people and a sense of community but the homes are not the newest but they are homes never the less ... at least until a random tornado rips it from it's base leaving only the platform it was built on once upon a time.

This area is prone to tornadoes even though it's not what we consider tornado alley, but we barely began severe weather season before Mother Nature dumped a basket of curve balls down onto a region that usually worries on hurricanes and some of these towns did indeed suffer from both Hurricane Michael and Hurricane Florence.

Except for the curve of the cone like area.

You can see that many of the towns in Michael's cone.

Were under the threat from tornadoes yesterday.

The whole storm system traced the track of Michael...

Well after it moved East out of Alabama where it began.

That's simply heartbreaking.

There's a pattern there I'm not happy about...

... as we move closer to hurricane season.

That part of of the GOM is prone to early season storms.

Severe Weather in the Spring.

Tropical Storms a few months later.

The signature of the lightning below tells the story.

That site sounded like a Geiger Counter last night.

And to add to the denial perhaps yesterday was...

..a quiet 2018 where few tornadoes happened.

I find it hard to believe that some of those last night were not EF-4

But my expertise is in hurricanes not tornadoes.

Tornadoes scare me in ways hurricanes do not.

Hurricanes give you more time to prepare.

Their intensity usually not as strong as tornadoes.

Easier to fly out of an area or drive.

Or hunker down in a strong structure.

The tornado that hit Cairo encompassed the whole town.

At least on radar. 

Meteorologists immediately remember other tornadoes.

Other towns slammed by tornadoes.

It's how we think.

We connect the dots.

And that was hard for many of us online last night...

...watching in real time and knowing the weight of the reality.

Knowing what we would see in the morning.

Knowing the death toll would climb.

Knowing whole small towns may have been destroyed.

A sign was blown 20 miles away.

A rather large sign flew 20 miles away.

And as Reed Timmer said last night people need our help.

The study of meteorology is awesome.

But severe weather kills.

Hurricanes kill.

We study them and try to get better at what we do.

We learn from chasers, from drone footage and computer models.

We learn in real time.

And the goal is to give more lead time in prediction.

Getting the word out is difficult.

There is so much "noise" online in social media.

On Air Mets have very little time to get the message out on air.

You have to sift through and filter out the noise.

The NWS does not get the on air play the NHC does.

It's always been upsetting to me.

And lastly there was so much hype on who gets snow.

There is a big difference between EPIC snow and snow.

Regular old fashioned wintry snow and slush.

We had spoken on the trouble in the South with severe weather and possible tornadoes being followed by an Arctic Cold BLAST of low temperatures on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and this was the first of three storm systems forecast to blast their way across the USA in March. So not going to tell you that yes it finally snowed in Boston and that parts of NYC got slushy snow because well it's early March and it's winter and that's normal. While it's not uncommon for Alabama or Georgia to see a tornado it is not common to have a system this large, this strong decimate multiple cities across a large swath of the USA so not going to go long on the snow today.

Yes, there are chances for flakes in North Carolina and yes I will be happy if I see them. This was a wicked system filled with surprises and I tend to think it will keep on surprising as will the next and the one after that. November was cold, December was normal, February was warm and March is forecast to be cold.

What I will do is ask you to donate to charities you know are reliable such as the Red Cross or a local Church or Synagogue or Community Organization that has a good record of providing relief to people who need in times of disaster. It's easy for me to put a link to the Red Cross so I do.

www.redcross.org

And lastly I don't care what time of year it is or how nice the weather was last month or how lucky you have been avoiding a direct hit by a tornado or a hurricane. Know that wherever you live there are dangers that can happen and sometimes the earth can shake, rattle and roll as well. Learn how to prepare as best as you can for these things and without scaring your children teach them well.

More later today as details come in but when the Sheriff of a town says it looks as if someone took a knife and just cleared everything in it's path... you know it's bad and the news and death toll may climb as the hours of today move on.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps Not going to post a song today. Carrie Underwood and Little Big Town do come to mind but going to post a video on how to survive a Tornado. This week in North Carolina is Preparation Week as March 1st is usually the start of the Severe Weather Season. Knowledge is power. Learn and do what you can to teach those you love how to survive severe weather when it comes calling.