A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, January 07, 2020
PR Earthquake - Spring Like Severe Weather Outbreak in Winter in South - Winter 2020
I've been back in Raleigh getting back into a routine, unpacking, cleaning up, doing laundry and trying to remember where I was before I left. For all the journals I keep I really should have one that says "After Traveling ... Get Back on Track Fast" as every wonderful trip means coming back to the every day routine and research I work on as well as every day routines. I have a trip to Seattle coming up but the date is not set just yet. Miami, Monsey ... am I really back in Raleigh? Yes, and to be honest I like being home in Raleigh these days. The air is cooler and it's easier to breathe yet today we are hovering between "nice ... feels cold" and "why does it feel so raw today?" and I know why it's because rain is moving in and the skies are gray and it's a North Carolina Winter Day when you feel if it's this cold it should snow but the cold front is dry this time so all you get is cold, winter rain.
It's been an odd and interesting winter but so far snow has had a problem finding it's way to the Mid Atlantic or the South while sliding along just North of NYC and attacking New England as to be honest Winter is supposed to do because that way we have small towns covered in snow that look like a Greeting Card promising a Winter Wonderland. When you live South of the Mason Dixie Line you got to be realistic about how much snow you are going to get in any given Winter but still it is NORTH Carolina so the chances are there ... somewhere... sometime...distantly down the road. I have a friend in North Dakota, I miss that friend... should I go visit her? With every week that passes things change subtly and supposedly change is in the air...
To be honest.... the mountains get some snow.
But everyone else got rain.
Speaking of rain in the South.
The set up for the next cold front....
...and abundant tropical moisture.
Is creating a Spring Like Set up...
No it's not Spring...
We haven't had winter yet.
But it's that sort of set up.
Progression of fronts....
...and a flow from the Gulf of Mexico.
Watch the next one down the road..
Being honest I am not 24/7 watching loops.
I watch... I do a model or a two.
I read a bit from people I respect.
Then I try not to obsess.
Not my neck of the woods... I don't care.
Being honest.. weather is locational.
Watching other people get snow is not fun.
Would @icyclone chase a thunderstorm?
Because he's bored and there's no Hurricanes to chase?
Nah... neither would I.
I love it all ...don't get me wrong.
But I want the weather ... I want snow.
I'm less a dreamer or watcher as much as doer.
And if I can't "do" weather today the way I want.
I'm probably doing something else.
I do have hobbies ya know...
As is the earthquake as it's in our Tropical World.
Wrong Earth Science but Mother Nature does her thing.
Luckily we don't have the fires they do in Australia.
Updated 11 PM Tropical Storm & Jerry Still a Tropical storm. Lorenzo Forecast to be a Hurricane Wednesday
11 PM.
Not feeling well...
..can't believe I stayed up for 11 PM.
First off all Jerry still is a Tropical Storm.
Not doing well but talking on Karen tonight.
So that just happened.
NHC Discussion at 11 PM.
Explains odd movement of Karen today.
Video below shows a westward movement ...
...of storms.
There are swirls and centers.
Many said this all afternoon.
Now perhaps they will relocate the center.
Who knows what 5 AM will say.
Going to sleep.
The bottom line is the cone is the same.
Give or take, more or less.
Steering currents collapse at some point.
It's not a well stacked system.
Shear has been a problem.
It moved across PR.
Let's see what it does tomorrow.
Tropical Storms can be more complicated at times to understand than hurricanes. Easy to follow a well developed eye. #Karen & #PuertoRico She lifts North but her associated weather goes in multiple directions. https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxa has impacted land more often than not. pic.twitter.com/sfVLpqh7dn
There's much talk about what could be.
Interaction between Karen and Jerry.
In truth anything could happen.
But what will is hard to forecast.
Too many intangibles.
But when you hear people talking about Fujiwhara
2 storms circling each other...
....usually the stronger one wins.
That's a huge asterisk on the 5 PM Cone for Jerry.
Lorenzo far away currently..
..so going to talk on Karen.
Here we are currently.
Karen punching up over PR.
They are dealing with life threatening flood risks.
It's not Maria but even Karen can be problematic.
We see in this image below.
Karen is pulling it together.
It's getting more the look of a TS
Than a large messy rain shower.
It's possible a good part of it could...
...slip West of PR
If so that would be a real win for PR.
Similar to Dorian.
But they are getting heavy weather NOW.
The Cone....
Breaking this up into 2 parts.
Looks very clear cut and high confidence.
Sometimes you need to ignore the 5 day part.
But see that shaded area is the 5th day Cone.
People in Miami only see the blue x part.
"oh my God it's headed to Miami..."
In Carolinas they see the Green part.
"Could this bust the ridge and ...."
Let's not forget Bermuda.
And note the yellow X..
Maybe the ridge is strong.
And it slides South slowly.
There are purple question marks ..
...because we aren't sure.
Check out how together those models are
36 hours out...good agreement.
And then the trouble begins.
Looks like a sideways Heart.
It loops.
It stalls.
It slides every which way .....
And I want you to understand this is days from now.
Even the current 5 day forecast is far away.
Saturday evening i'ts not that close to Florida
And it could get there Saturday Night...
..and suddenly change directions.
Or keep going.
I think we should deal with the now.
You know it's there.
Should it intensify and be on the W side.
Prepare accordingly.
This is not Dorian.
Though it's a similar track.
That cannot be ignored.
So I'm more concerned on strength...
...then exact location 7 days out.
A tropical depression hitting SFL meh.. eh...
A Hurricane headed towards Bimini and FLL
That would be worrisome.
There's time to worry on that.......
.....if it's a Hurricane Headed West at 78 West.
Back to the NHC
Discussion is good and honest.
It deals with the now above.
It deals with the 4 to 5 day below
"uncertainty about when and how fast"
Regarding the ridge...
..regarding how Karen responds to the ridge.
the turn to the West...
the 120 Hr position is
a bit further South on this cone.
Being honest there are a lot of young mets and some older ones that love to scream "Landfall" online and spend hours showing you what each model will do and making a good case worthy of a court case for why the Euro is better than the GFS or why the ICON needs to be examined. It's interesting and yeah I enjoy thinking on the possibilities but then in 12 hours they make a new video or a new graphic and often there's a clickbait story telling you that the EAST COAST IS THREATENED BY KAREN ...or JERRY or Humberto or.... well you get the idea.
We need to always be vigilant... always stay on top of fast changes in the tropics and pay attention to trends in models but we need to stay in touch with reality and not start planning what to do because a possible Tropical Storm may threaten your home a week from now. BUT... you GOTTA have a plan always during hurricane season. Always pay attention, be ready to move into action especially as Homegrown Storms pop up often.
But before we are sure what Karen will do it's important to see if Jerry is still there and if so how strong is Jerry, because if old models were fed data that was wrong on Jerry's location and intensity it matters in how the models portray the future.
So let's pray for Puerto Rico not to take such a bad hit and hope Virgin Islands don't get more than they expect the way they did Dorian and let's hope once Karen is up in those warm waters North of PR moving slowly as the ridge puts pressure on it's forward movement that Karen doesn't become more than we bargained for because Karen always seems to surprise us at the wrong moment; Trinidad is an example and PR is getting a stronger storm than it looked like it would get last night.
Check out the NHC at 11 PM and stay tuned...
Taking a break here as I've been under the weather and tired of looping and need some rest. Things change fast in the tropics especially when there are 3 systems relatively close together.
That naked swirl North of Karen is Jerry.
Last night it was battling shear.
Now it's battling to stay alive.
Where would Karen go ...
...if Jerry wasn't an entity?
Maybe same way...
... maybe not.
Stay tuned.
And follow the NHC...
...they are trying hard to get it right.
For all of us.
* * *
From 9 AM...
keep reading if you did not do so.
Thanks
Putting a video here below
..and another at the bottom.
Keep them in mind while reading discussion below.
And keep in mind new models.
Again models are always running.
Always changing.
Never trust one model run....
...unless it's 48 hours out.
Karen...
.... wait this out til it's N of PR.
Take them with lots of salt.
They are pasta....
...you can't eat pasta without sauce.
Or butter or olive oil or salt.
Jerry smashed but not giving up.
Jerry really doesn't want to go out to sea.
But eventually... it should.
That's where Lorenzo come in.
Days from now.
New models above compare with below.
But know... they too will change.
Water vapor really shows the future well. Water vapor loop. Turn sound up Note I said remnants. It’s remnant moisture blown off of Jerry being sheared forcing Jerry to stop. Then he’s trapped. Tropical Drama. Ridge protecting East Coast. Then #Karen hits the ridge. https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxapic.twitter.com/RxG9gwkyog
Mimic loop. Turn sound up. It’s not just a pretty lava lamp... #Jerry being stopped in his tracks by dry air (blues, purples) Karen moving N also gets trapped. See the flow West underneath the Dry High? That’s what Models are showing flor Karen https://t.co/XLVVLmtkcS Lorenzo... pic.twitter.com/oOnAL1u1uJ
The issue is here that for now the high pressure being constantly reinforced from the North holding the Southeast hostage with summer like weather is trapping anything tropical from moving towards a date with the East Coast. Hopefully that holds in place and if so we lose any chance of landfall, if things change watch out. And that set up doesn't help if anything forms in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico and makes a lunge North from a different location. Time will tell as currently nothing has formed there but this time of year it's where we watch for trouble as we move towards October. And, the storms approaching the East Coast begin to get scooped up by cold fronts moving down once the huge, high pressure ridge goes away. That does happen eventually so it's just a matter of days. Lorenzo may help flip that switch and then fronts may begin to sweep down with cooler air again.
It's a dance we do every fall along with buying Pumpkin Spice Lattes and eating Pumpkin Cream Sandwich cookies from Trader Joe's ya know...
I'll update this afternoon. The planes are flying through Karen trying to make sense of her center and associated convection that's moving as one towards Puerto Rico. Maybe they will relocate her or maybe not. Karen is a mystery to all of us. Jerry is trying to regroup, there's parts of Jerry everywhere as Jerry was hit with shear like you can't imagine but loops from last night tell that story. As always Lows go towards Lows and High Pressure blocks Lows that usually turn away but stubborn Jerry stood his ground for hours last night, while Karen got her groove back in the Caribbean. And what does Lorenzo do? Check back later this afternoon!
Oh and oddly PR had a strong earthquake just to the North of it offshore, directly IN the track for Karen so what's up with that? When it rains it pours and the ground quakes? Not normal but happened so mentioning it.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps... not saying not to watch them or forget they are there, never ever forget a cyclone is out there as things are fluid in the atmosphere and sometimes shear forecasts do flip flops so watch but don't worry but don't eat all your hurricane supplies just yet... hurricane season isn't over until the end of November.
11 PM HURRICANE DORIAN UPDATE. MODELS. TRACK. After Islands Dorian Approaching Florida. Virgin Islands In Crosshairs NOW. EAST COAST IN PLAY LATER. LABOR DAY MAJOR HURRICANE DORIAN.
You understand looking at this ...
Everything from Savannah to top of Key Largo...
IN the 5 Day Cone.
That's a wide cone.
Similar to previous cone.
Many questions for down the road.
Short term the cone is very narrow.
Radar presentation tonight good.
Better than the satellite image.
Important discussion to note.
Always good to read it carefully.
Subject to uncertainty.
Similar to previous cone.
People ask me always "WHEN?"
NHC has this graphic.
I have to admit it's a bit large.
Most people are asking me "WHAT?"
Again let me show you the NRL map.
Closer to that map.
Covering a lot of bases.
So that's it for the day.
Just too soon to say.
But landfall looks clear.
Where?
Can't say yet.
Review again what I wrote below please.
Thanks for your patience and feedback.
Sweet Tropical Dreams
BobbiStorm.
Ps... last model run below.
Newest set of models shown below.
And comparison of today's models below that.
Note this was for today Wednesday.
I asked if he would do it tomorrow.
He said he would.
Again everything changes often.
But good to see...
Here's a look at the latest models for #HurricaneDorian. The GFS (American model) has the farthest north landfall, near Daytona Beach. ICON (German model) as far south as Miami. Trusty ECMWF & HWRF suggesting the Vero Beach proximity. Stay tuned! pic.twitter.com/RzCOaTo2bA
If they are watching out for theirs... you do the same.
Showing this image below that Josh put up of the eye of Dorian.
The eye of Dorian over the Virgin Islands.
Why?
It's a good image.
And because the Virgin Islands were not supposed to see the eye.
No eye was forecast to develop.
And TS Dorian was forecast to move far to the West of there.
36 hours earlier and then the forecast changed.
Dorian has been a tricky storm from the beginning.
So expect more tricks in the days ahead.
Here is an example of how the cone has changed so far.
The center of #Dorian has been consistently on the right side of the cone and we'll see if that plays out in future model runs and eventual landfall. Over the last 2 days, you can see that shift in the early period, but not as much at the end of the @NHC_Atlantic 4casts. pic.twitter.com/CODc1nisy9
The logic behind the cone from the NHC and the current forecast track for Dorian is shown below but remember it can change fast as the atmosphere is fluid and each movement it makes relies on some factor upstream or downstream and just as everyone expected it to hit Hispaniola and to have it possibly fall apart a bit it changed direction on a dime and sped off towards the Virgin Islands avoiding the tall mountains and intensifying over warm water while pummeling the Virgin Islands ... video below from a sailboat in the middle of Hurricane Dorian ...turn the volume up.
There is a cold front moving down across the East side of the country with dry, high pressure moving in behind it. Another one reinforces that behind it and in theory this produces a strong high pressure ridge that blocks Dorian from moving North. Why is that important? Because hurricanes want to go towards the poles, they are energy transfer machines basically. And a stronger hurricane feels a stronger urge to go North. A high pressure ridge can and will block it from doing so. It is worth mentioning here that a Major Hurricane can sometimes make it's own weather and continue heading into high pressure whereas a Category 1 or 2 would be blocked. If you play Chess you understand this... if not trust me. A Major Hurricane will fight to pull North to the left...and often a hurricane is forecast to go WNW and yet it pulls NW. Sometimes a ridge builds in as it did with Andrew and Andrew turned West. Every hurricane is different and unique I can't say it enough. And in this case the atmosphere to the East is Florida is wet, moist and juicy as the remnants of Erin are floating down the coast and and it makes a bad situation worse as low pressure likes to go towards low pressure and stays away from high pressure.
Between the recon and jets flying into Dorian and around Dorian sampling the wind and atmosphere and all the different NWS offices along the coast sampling the air by the coast the next few model runs should be more accurate and in real time we will see what Dorian does after it leaves the Caribbean behind and moves up along the Bahamas. The NHC is doing their job, you have to do your job and that is monitor the movement, intensity, size and forward speed of the storm and listen to your local authorities. We will know more tomorrow and even more the day after tomorrow and that's true.
So now there are many questions I know.
What do you do?
Breaking this down in parts.
1. If you live in South Florida you should be carefully monitoring any changes in track or development (intensity, size, forward motion) of Dorian and begin preparing for what you would do should the cone be nudged further to the South and look as if it may come to parts of South Florida. I'm not saying that will happen but it could happen though at this point it is less likely. You should already have batteries and water so stock up if you haven't done so on medication, diapers, pet food and anything you need in case power is out or it takes a long time to rebuild. Hopefully that doesn't happen but living in paradise comes with a price tag and that price tag may be extra snacks, food and supplies to get through power being out or being out of work for several days at best.
2. If you live in Central Florida and let's make that wide so let's say anything North of WPB up to Daytona including the Lake inland and Tampa on the West Coast. Also know that if a Major Hurricane would cross that Lake there would be waves and storm surge there and inland flooding can happen in some places so follow your local sources. Do not rely on the fact that almost no major hurricane has done that and they always curve away as each hurricane is it's own beast with it's own unique steering currents. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. The 1928 hurricane came in around WPB and headed straight for the Lake, it can happen.
3. If you live in North Florida being North of Daytona across the Panhandle watch it more carefully than say Miami as it's always worse to be NW of a Major Hurricane than on the SW side of it at it's approach as hurricanes always try to go poleward (North) and if there is ANY weakness in the ridge Dorian will find that weakness and bust through the same way it changed course from the Mona Passage and headed NW towards the weakness in the dry air and ridge and busted through while becoming a hurricane in the process. It may rarely happen but it could happen as Dora proved in the past.
Georgia and the Carolinas watch Dorian carefully as you know this dance and this drill better than most, what begins in Florida doesn't always stay in Florida and the end game is a crap shoot as just six hours ago both the EURO and the GFS showed impact in Charleston after Florida and now that's off the table. It can easily be back on the table to morrow.
Video from Shaun Kadison on her boat on St. Thomas, near Charlotte Amalie during the #Dorian northern eyewall pic.twitter.com/n3pdMDeB0P
Just want to remind people reading today how fast things change.
Virgin Islands were supposed to be far to the East yesterday morning.
Things in the tropics change fast.
They can be very fluid.
2 days ago they felt safer because Mona Passage.
But that changed fast.
So keep that in mind while seeing models.
And watching the NHC Cone.
Good wide loop showing Hurricane Dorian forming.
Moved fast to the N though officially NW
Long loop.
Let's you see how Hurricane Dorian came to be.
Pressure dropping....
Note small storm still.
BUT... once in Bahamas will grow in size.
Nowhere near the Mona Passage.
I only repeat this as when looking at models.
And watching shifts in the NHC Cone.
Know there can be a wide margin of error often.
So do what you can in case it hits you ....
...the way it hit the Virgin Islands.
After all the talk on Hispaniola.
Also showing oddly despite different solutions...
...over Florida or near Florida.
Euro and GFS AGREE on it impacting SC.
Go figure.
How it gets there is extremely different route.
About a day apart.
But the drama goes on and on.
Dorian Drama.
And models change often.
Where we are now.
Oh and that happened.
Finally.
As models can make you nuts.....
...good to listen to experts.
A very good video from my friend.
He's good.
Listen to him if you have the time.
It's 20 minutes.
Explains variables and what has happened.
How we got here....
...where we are going.
Note discussion above.
Once Dorian reaches favorable environment.
Expected to intensify to Cat 3 Major Hurricane.
Then below is the next part.
Labor Day Hurricane Forecast Headed to Florida Beaches.
Asking you not to lock in on any one place now tho.
Remember yesterday morning NHC had Dorian in Mona Passage.
Now 1 day later it's EAST of PR in Virgin Islands.
Keep that in mind.
Everyone should prepare according to your needs now.
Could it slip up the coast?
Yes.
For those who follow on Twitter you will know I've said it could turn sharper in the short term to the right (meaning more NW to NNW) and then later turn sharper back to the West to WNW. It's been a concern I mentioned. It either gets to where the ridge is in time to be blocked and pushed towards Florida and if so ...really ...where exactly? Too soon to be sure. Or it finds a weakness and crawls up the coast looking for a weakness and so far Dorian has been excellent in finding a weakness in a ridge as it did yesterday. So prepare, don't panic... calm down and think on "what if" and do what you need but some beach city is going to get slammed on Labor Day Weekend and that's a big, HUGE hit for beach towns that rely on Labor Day Weekend revenue $$$ to get them through the winter when the tourists go back home. It's a huge financial loss for a good part of the SE Coast as trust me people are changing their plans now... as soon as they hear "MAJOR HURRICANE" even if not sure where they are NOT going to Florida or Georgia and up in the Carolinas they are watching very carefully.
The western cloud shield of Tropical Storm #Dorian is now pushing across eastern Puerto Rico. Dorian looks healthy on satellite imagery. PR is forecast to experience 'Tropical Storm' force winds this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/iYcuOqh4v5
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
