Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Updated 11 PM Tropical Storm & Jerry Still a Tropical storm. Lorenzo Forecast to be a Hurricane Wednesday


11 PM.
Not feeling well...
..can't believe I stayed up for 11 PM.
First off all Jerry still is a Tropical Storm.
Not doing well but talking on Karen tonight.

So that just happened.
NHC Discussion at 11 PM.
Explains odd movement of Karen today.

Video below shows a westward movement ...
...of storms.
There are swirls and centers.
Many said this all afternoon.
Now perhaps they will relocate the center.
Who knows what 5 AM will say.
Going to sleep.
The bottom line is the cone is the same.
Give or take, more or less.
Steering currents collapse at some point.



It's not a well stacked system.
Shear has been a problem.
It moved across PR.
Let's see what it does tomorrow.




Thanks for your patience...
Sweet tropical dreams

Keep reading if you did not do so already.
Like the Discussion tonight from NHC
It's a summary of Karen today.
Moving on now to tomorrow.
10 PM...

Late night tropical snack here...

There's much talk about what could be.
Interaction between Karen and Jerry.
In truth anything could happen.
But what will is hard to forecast.
Too many intangibles.

But when you hear people talking about Fujiwhara
2 storms circling each other...
....usually the stronger one wins.


When you use this NHC graphic.
That one of our favorite Carolina mets used.
You see how this really happens.
When storms collide.
Doesn't happen often ...the dance.
But it can.
Will it?
We will know soon enough.



Currently Karen is a 45 MPH Tropical Storm
Moving N at 8 MPH
Min Pressure 1005.

Keep that in mind when looking at models.
The big question is what will it be in 5 days?



I Tweeted this a while ago on Twitter.
This is my basis for what I want to say here.

1. Karen is now impacting Puerto Rico.
2. The track for the next 3 days is set.
3. The track beyond that is questionable.
4. Do not chase the end result of a 10 day model.
Adding in here Jerry is not doing well.

Yesterday it was thought Karen would be weak.
Jerry would be stronger.
Many thought that.
But today Karen is doing much better.
Jerry may not be there in 2 or 3 days.

NHC discussion refers to it as remnant low.
Sending planes in again to try and find a pulse.
That's a huge asterisk on the 5 PM Cone for Jerry.
Lorenzo far away currently..
..so going to talk on Karen.


Here we are currently.
Karen punching up over PR.
They are dealing with life threatening flood risks.
It's not Maria but even Karen can be problematic.

We see in this image below.
Karen is pulling it together.
It's getting more the look of a TS
Than a large messy rain shower.


It's possible a good part of it could...
...slip West of PR 
If so that would be a real win for PR.
Similar to Dorian.
But they are getting heavy weather NOW.

The Cone....
Breaking this up into 2 parts.


Looks very clear cut and high confidence.
Sometimes you need to ignore the 5 day part.



But see that shaded area is the 5th day Cone.
People in Miami only see the blue x part.
"oh my God it's headed to Miami..."
In Carolinas they see the Green part.
"Could this bust the ridge and ...."
Let's not forget Bermuda.
And note the yellow X..
Maybe the ridge is strong.
And it slides South slowly.

There are purple question marks ..
...because we aren't sure.

Check out how together those models are



36 hours out...good agreement.
And then the trouble begins.


Looks like a sideways Heart.
It loops.
It stalls.
It slides every which way .....

And I want you to understand this is days from now.

 Even the current 5 day forecast is far away.



Saturday evening i'ts not that close to Florida
And it could get there Saturday Night...
..and suddenly change directions.
Or keep going.

I think we should deal with the now.
You know it's there.
Should it intensify and be on the W side.
Prepare accordingly.

This is not Dorian.
Though it's a similar track.
That cannot be ignored.
So I'm more concerned on strength...
...then exact location 7 days out.
A tropical depression hitting SFL meh.. eh...
A Hurricane headed towards Bimini and FLL
That would be worrisome.
There's time to worry on that.......
.....if it's a Hurricane Headed West at 78 West.

Back to the NHC

Discussion is good and honest.

It deals with the now above.
It deals with the 4 to 5 day below



"uncertainty about when and how fast"
Regarding the ridge...
..regarding how Karen responds to the ridge.
the turn to the West... 
the 120 Hr position is
 a bit further South on this cone.

Being honest there are a lot of young mets and some older ones that love to scream "Landfall" online and spend hours showing you what each model will do and making a good case worthy of a court case for why the Euro is better than the GFS or why the ICON needs to be examined. It's interesting and yeah I enjoy thinking on the possibilities but then in 12 hours they make a new video or a new graphic and often there's a clickbait story telling you that the EAST COAST IS THREATENED BY KAREN ...or JERRY or Humberto or.... well you get the idea.

We need to always be vigilant... always stay on top of fast changes in the tropics and pay attention to trends in models but we need to stay in touch with reality and not start planning what to do because a possible Tropical Storm may threaten your home a week from now. BUT... you GOTTA have a plan always during hurricane season. Always pay attention, be ready to move into action especially as Homegrown Storms pop up often. 

But before we are sure what Karen will do it's important to see if Jerry is still there and if so how strong is Jerry, because if old models were fed data that was wrong on Jerry's location and intensity it matters in how the models portray the future. 

So let's pray for Puerto Rico not to take such a bad hit and hope Virgin Islands don't get more than they expect the way they did Dorian and let's hope once Karen is up in those warm waters North of PR moving slowly as the ridge puts pressure on it's forward movement that Karen doesn't become more than we bargained for because Karen always seems to surprise us at the wrong moment; Trinidad is an example and PR is getting a stronger storm than it looked like it would get last night.

Check out the NHC at 11 PM and stay tuned... 

Taking a break here as I've been under the weather and tired of looping and need some rest. Things change fast in the tropics especially when there are 3 systems relatively close together.


That naked swirl North of Karen is Jerry.
Last night it was battling shear.
Now it's battling to stay alive.
Where would Karen go ...
...if Jerry wasn't an entity?
Maybe same way... 
... maybe not.
Stay tuned.
And follow the NHC...
...they are trying hard to get it right.
For all of us.

* * * 
From 9 AM...
keep reading if you did not do so.
Thanks

Putting a video here below
..and another at the bottom.
Keep them in mind while reading discussion below.

And keep in mind new models.
Again models are always running.
Always changing.
Never trust one model run....
...unless it's 48 hours out.

Karen...
.... wait this out til it's N of PR.
Take them with lots of salt.
They are pasta....
...you can't eat pasta without sauce.
Or butter or olive oil or salt.


Jerry smashed but not giving up.
Jerry really doesn't want to go out to sea.
But eventually... it should.
That's where Lorenzo come in.
Days from now.



New models above compare with below.
But know... they too will change.
Water vapor really shows the future well.

 Water vapor loop. Turn sound up Note I said remnants. It’s remnant moisture blown off of Jerry being sheared forcing Jerry to stop. Then he’s trapped. Tropical Drama. Ridge protecting East Coast. Then #Karen hits the ridge. https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxa pic.twitter.com/RxG9gwkyog


Wow look at Tropical Storm Karen.
Round, bulked up.
Detention seems to have worked.
Puerto Rico in it's path.
But talking rain here more than strong winds.
But rain for PR causes mud slides.
Flash flooding.
So that's not good.
Could be worse obviously.


Note from this radar image.
And other sat images.
Karen has two parts.
It's not perfectly stacked.
Perhaps the on the West....
...actually aims for the Mona Passage.
Every model this year wanted to go there.
But just look it as one messy storm.
Rain storm, tropical rain.
Some high winds.

Jerry is up there East of the Carolinas.
Blasted apart last night by shear.
How it's even there ...
...don't know.

Video from last night.



Lorenzo off Africa moving West.
Put it in motion.
That's how I feel inside when looping.
Or running too many models.

GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif (900×540)

I truly don't know why the world is jiggly.
But leaving it there as it's how I feel.
I'm sure there's some reason.
But it seems to work for Karen.
Tropical Storm again.
Kind of steals the show this morning

Models kind of look like scribble scrabble.
So goes with the jiggly sat loop.


Cone below.


Jerry below....
...forecast to go out to sea.
That's what the NHC says.



But models do get strange at the end.
So maybe loops?
Or swirls or turns around...
..then goes out to sea.
When Lorenzo moves on the scene.
Maybe... 
...time will tell.

Lorenzo, beautiful in form.
Far away out there.
Note all the systems are kind of...
...converging together.


Forecast to turn and go out to sea.
Does it grab what's left of Jerry ....
...as a kind of traveling companion?

Or does Karen make a grab for Jerry?

This has become an interesting drama.
Models change hourly.
Somewhere one is always running.

The ridge is forecast to build in.
It's strong, it's reinforced.
It's hot where it's not supposed to be.
And then it will not... be hot.
Cool air will surge down eventually.

Cyclones really do flip the switch.
That's why they often ramp up...
..at the equinox.
When the Seasons collide.

Again a summary from the beautiful..
..Mimic Loop.



The issue is here that for now the high pressure being constantly reinforced from the North holding the Southeast hostage with summer like weather is trapping anything tropical from moving towards a date with the East Coast. Hopefully that holds in place and if so we lose any chance of landfall, if things change watch out. And that set up doesn't help if anything forms in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico and makes a lunge North from a different location. Time will tell as currently nothing has formed there but this time of year it's where we watch for trouble as we move towards October. And, the storms approaching the East Coast begin to get scooped up by cold fronts moving down once the huge, high pressure ridge goes away. That does happen eventually so it's just a matter of days. Lorenzo may help flip that switch and then fronts may begin to sweep down with cooler air again.

It's a dance we do every fall along with buying Pumpkin Spice Lattes and eating Pumpkin Cream Sandwich cookies from Trader Joe's ya know...

I'll update this afternoon. The planes are flying through Karen trying to make sense of her center and associated convection that's moving as one towards Puerto Rico. Maybe they will relocate her or maybe not. Karen is a mystery to all of us. Jerry is trying to regroup, there's parts of Jerry everywhere as Jerry was hit with shear like you can't imagine but loops from last night tell that story. As always Lows go towards Lows and High Pressure blocks Lows that usually turn away but stubborn Jerry stood his ground for hours last night, while Karen got her groove back in the Caribbean.  And what does Lorenzo do? Check back later this afternoon!



Oh and oddly PR had a strong earthquake just to the North of it offshore, directly IN the track for Karen so what's up with that? When it rains it pours and the ground quakes? Not normal but happened so mentioning it.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... not saying not to watch them or forget they are there, never ever forget a cyclone is out there as things are fluid in the atmosphere and sometimes shear forecasts do flip flops so watch but don't worry but don't eat all your hurricane supplies just yet... hurricane season isn't over until the end of November. 

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:27 AM

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