UPDATED 4 PM Focus on Jerry Today. Prayers for Texas. Caribbean Blob Still There. Invest 99L. New Kid In Town.. Always. African Waves it's September

4 PM Update...



There are the players.
Trio of systems.
3 Amigos remember?
Carib Blob to the Left.
Jerry Center Stage.
99L to the Right.
Ignore new wave off Africa for now...



NHC Map...
10% Forever Carib Blob.
Everything comes and goes but it's anchored.
Well for now.

Jerry hanging in there...
...despite sudden negative reviews on Yelp from NHC

Invest 99L
Can we call it Agent 99?
Trying to slip under Jerry...
..while Jerry is distracted by shear.

Then we have the new wave.
All red and filled with high expectations.
We had high expectations for other waves too.
Then things with low expectations exploded.

This has been the irony of this season.
Dorian often belittled for size and intensity...
... turned away from the NHC track..
And intensified rapidly and didn't look back.

Imelda ignored totally until 30 minutes..
...before it made landfall.
I-10 will probably be closed for weeks.
Massive flooding and slow movement.
Yet forecast was originally for not that bad.
To be clear they said heavy rainfall...
..and the possibility of flash flooding.
But no where near 43 inches was mentioned.
and it being anything like Harvey was played down.

Then this happened.

https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_
d329e312-dbb4-11e9-b3b8-0be7625c8710.html

Fragments from the article above.

Please read it.

I20 is the better route across Texas today.

From the link above.

Yeah that happened.

Interstate 10 Bridge ...

...support structure damaged.

Seems NHC has problems close in.
Michael from last year is an example.



Note Phil is concerned with coastal flooding from Jerry.
He's talking on our Caribbean Blob.
He's mentions Jamaica.
But today this is about Jerry.
I'm just saying don't take your eyes off..
... the convection in the blob.

My biggest concern has been Florida...
...in October being open to a landfall.
From the SW or SSW.
I spoke on this often this year.
When Florida has heavy rainfall all summer.
And add in cold fronts on the move.
What begins down in the Carib ...
...doesn't stay down in the Carib.
Because Cold Fronts pull systems N NNE or NE.
Down the road this is a problem.
Should 99L or the African Wave..
..or part of the Caribbean Blob gets into SW Carib.
Large gyre sets up there in October usually.
While Atlantic Waves copying each other...
...what will anything forming in Carib & GOM do?
Down near the Yucatan?

I'm just talking out loud.

Models for Jerry above.
Note many ensemble members.
Some pull West (faintly there if u look)
Maybe they see a weaker Jerry/
Sheared apart but holding on?
I can't say right now.
Just watching.
Despite negative reviews.
Jerry has a solid core here below.

NHC Gung Ho as always for the new kid in town.

Wave by Africa.

Sneaky Wave trying to sneak under Jerry.

10% Caribbean Blob.

And then we have the shear zone.

Everything in motion shown below in the video.

Interesting drama.

Looking at Earthnull.

The real player that shows up is Jerry.

That's why I wanted to talk about Jerry today.

Or at least focus on him a bit.

Clean up today for Texas.

Hoping the rain stopped.

Quick floater of #Jerry watching his steady movement towards the islands forecast to move North of the Islands by the NHC. Loop courtesy of Tropical Tidbits. I have questions on movement & intensity but as always time will tell. Turn sound up. pic.twitter.com/H7Fjlk8Gej

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) September 20, 2019

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=10L&product=ir-dvorak

What bugs me is the movement is steady West.

North of West but not truly WNW.

But not going to argue with NHC on this.

So just showing the loop to explain.

I'm a bit concerned on short term forecast.

Regarding Islands.

Most likely Jerry clips the Islands ...

... that's a common enough track.

But I'd watch it carefully if I was down there.

This is the convergence of the 3 Amingos.

Models for Jerry below.

When you watch the video below.....

...think on this image.

I watched Twister last night.

So think of it as the "suck zone"

Everything that gets "there'

Gets "sucked in to the NE"

Quick video to go with what I’m currently writing. Turn sound up. https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxa #blog should be out soon. #tropics Friday #tropical #drama of #Jerry & it’s sidekick the #Caribbean #blob pic.twitter.com/RjBI7mx8Ow

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) September 20, 2019

Short term I'm worried on Islands having interaction.

Bermuda got way more of Humberto than expected.

Houston got way more from Houston...

...than was forecast.

The Virgin Islands got more of Dorian...

...than was ever mentioned.

A forecast is a product.

It's a forecast... telling the future.

As best as possible with the tools at hand.

Small changes in short term movement.

Extrapolated over time.

Can make a difference.

Then again a more Westerly short term movement....

...can be made up for by a sharper Northward movement later.

So I'll update the blog later today with more details.

I want to see how Jerry goes today.

Also I spent most of the day yesterday on Imelda's Flooding.

It's heartbreaking. 

Really.

People lost their homes.

Every day regular folk. 

And some places had 40 inches of rain.

So much for Imelda moving fast...

....and not getting "stuck" like Harvey.

I'd like to understand how that forecast was a bust.

I really was concerned it would move slow...

..and regenerate over the GOM as..

the "center" of the 90 minute TS.... 

... moved inland but the rain mass

stayed over the GOM.

Creating the typical Houston floods scenario.

It's like they make it across the Finish Line.

And refuse to leave celebrating their victory.

Or something....

NOTE I-10 CLOSED.

They are checking for structural damage.....

.... before they can open it.

It's not looking good.

Anyway... there's a new Invest 99L

The other wave.

The new kid in town.

And they are watching Africa next.

I feel as if this whole season has been...

...about models loving the new kid in town.

Then they have problems once they hit..

"the suck zone"

So there's the tropics Friday morning.

We can talk on that later.

Prayers for everyone in Texas.

Hope Jerry misses the Islands completely.

The Caribbean Blob will be discussed later.

It's a semi permanent feature.

Note it goes further to the South...

...than most discussion says.

And not talking on the new kid in town yet.

Watch Jerry.

Pray for Texas.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps will update around 4 PM.