Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

6 PM. Imelda Raining Over Texas - Humberto & Bermuda.. Jerry Kicking Up His Heels in the Atlantic - Is Karen Going to Develop Behind Jerry Or Be Another Midnight Surprise? Time Will Tell. Humberto Pronounced like UMBerto (think Uma Thurman... wink)




Humberto currently forecast to recurve.
Hopefully missing the Islands.
Models below.


@hurricanemodels on Twitter.
Can't remember the last time I saw such an array.
Like a Pasta Buffet... all you can eat.

And yet models are tightly clustered on track.
Odd as usually intensity impacts track some.
But not here apparently...


Phil Ferro in Miami doing the Jerry explanation.


He's good.
Expected to veer away...

Discussion from NHC.
I disagree as I think there is shear there now.
And it's forecast to get stronger.
Holds Jerry's intensity down.
And yes there is some dry air out there...


Earthnull has lots of filters.
Its's good to play with... 
www.earthnull.com
Note the golden colors.



At 2 PM...
The NHC gave my Carib blob 10%
Wave behind Jerry has low odds too for now.
It's unfriendly before 50 degrees West.
We've seen this all season.

The Yellow Carib Blob looks at Jerry.
And thinks... what do I need that for...


Definitely looking at each other.
Carib Blob kind of a slacker.
Let's hope it's not an late bloomer... 


There's is a video below that explains how Humberto...
...and his wake... his tail... makes it hard for storms to form.
We can get named storms such as Jerry.
But it literally sucks moisture away from the storms below.
Shear from that and the ULL that's NW of Jerry...
...holding the lid on Jerry for now.
And hampering development of the Carib Convection.
My concern with the Carib Yellow Area is......
........should part of it make it further West.
It hits warm water and less dry air.
And there we could have a problem.
Or if the wave behind Jerry did that as well.
Anything that forms down there...
...gets pulled North and can be a player.



Good Tweet below.
Good descriptions, easy to read.



As for Humberto.
Good video from Bermuda.
I've never been there.
Researched a bit on it.
Realized many left Bermuda for the Bahamas.
And then from the Bahamas to the FL Keys.
Many old Keys Conch families in Bermuda.
Logical. Anyway beautiful.

I'll update in the morning.
Things are relatively on cruise control.
A day to watch and wait.
And see what happens tomorrow.

* * * 
From earlier this morning.
Keep reading if you have not.
Putting this video at the top.
It explains more on what is at the bottom.
They go hand in hand.
It's a fast video ...
...TURN THE SOUND UP
(gotta remember to say that...
...learning as I go)



Keep those thoughts in mind while reading this blog.


 

Good Morning.
So... I am going to go long on images.
And...short on words this morning.
Because I have much going on today...
...and today is a day to watch Jerry.
Watch the area not highlighted to the W of Jerry.
Watch and pray it doesn't flood in Texas.
And wave bye bye to Humberto.

Our two anchored red blobs....
Imelda to the left in Texas.
Jerry bottom right.
Coming on strong.
Humberto a Cat 3 in name only.
Doesn't really give the sat look...
..and forecast to immediately weaken.
Going out to sea.

Let's start with Texas.
Because we have tropical weather there now.


Note the golds and oranges over the GOM.
We had this with Harvey and others.
While the center is on land.
The bulk of the rain... is over water.
So it can sustain itself a while.
Hope it just fades away...


Cone for Imelda above.
Cone for Jerry because.... 
... everyone wants to know about Jerry.


Jerry has the same track Humberto had... 
...or was supposed to have though...
The threat here to Florida seems less.
Should it take the bottom of that cone...
...it needs to make a sharper turn to miss Florida.
Yes, I know you know this drill.
I know this drill.
Does Jerry know the drill?


Bye Bye So Long Fare Well... 
Major Hurricane. Hurricane.
On the way to Europe somewhere..
We don't hate to see you go.



Using the satellite imagery here above.
It's easy to see Jerry is a problem.
And Jerry has a friend as I said yesterday.
Bit worried on that but it's too soon to worry.


Note Jerry's friend develops slower.
Jerry's friend develops lower.
Jerry's friend may be Karen.
But after the Imelda switcheroo.
Who knows for sure?

When something is near Africa....
Florida watches nervously.
When something moves more to the North 
Carolinas hold their breath.
We've seen this play out all year.
Sometimes things get messy and...
...the Mid Atlantic is in play.
So basically we're watching.

Beautiful image below 


Smiling, love that.
As much as I love color black and white is easier to see.
Sometimes as there are less distractions.

Quickly showing you the models for Jerry.


Jerry looks strong.
Stronger Jerry gets further North it gets.
Could NHC be wrong?


There's an Upper Level Low in the middle.
Similar to the one that dogged and steered Humberto.
Moisture is getting caught in it's strong flow.
That's how Imelda formed.
When they spin FAST and BIG... things get weird.
I think of them as black, ghost canes.

An old post from an old blog.
I felt NHC should have opened Monday with an Invest.
Rather than waiting and then slowly work up...
...in case it hit Depression status.
As I felt it was be a player.
Was a player the whole time with Humberto.

Note the moisture came off Humberto.
Wrapped up into it's core.
Then it worked it's way down to the surface.
I'm not saying that is gonna happen ...no.
Showing you how complex things are.

This is an old blog post.
Last Friday I said to watch the Gulf of Mexico.

No models saw anything.
(I thought I was going out on a limb...)
But I felt it was good to mention.
And to remind you to watch.
If I just regurgitate the NHC....
...of what use am I?
So I sometimes go out on a limb.
And I think I help explain things ....
...in a way many can understand.


See a black cane (ULL)
They steer hurricanes.
They hinder development.
They enhance development.
The thing with ULLs is all about location.
And strength... 
Some are very stubborn.
Some move around and go poof fast.

The MIMIC below is great.
Shows where the moisture is getting pulled.
Moisture you can't see on the visible.
Moisture the Water Vapor hints at.
And when things start to rolll..
...or kink up.
Rotation is happening.
You can see Jerry there.
Dark orange, mid image.
Pinks pulling in to the center.
And to the left... West of it.
Is our old... oh my gosh.
I think it was 946L or 94L
(hard to keep up)
NHC does NOT highlight it.
But it develops the next wave there.



See? So putting this year again.
It's up at the top.
Every model this year developed something there.
And many of those waves died out.
Some developed faster.
Dorian got there.... 
... and possibly the new wave will.
As it sneaks below Jerry.
Really OUTFLOW from JERRY...
KEEPS what may be KAREN South... 
Further West... and go "WHEW"
As it makes it close to the Islands.
But why aren't we watching this area?
It's convecting where we thought it would.
But models....
Models sometimes miss things.
And then they latch on and things change.
Or the NHC has to admit something's there.
Like Imelda.
And what worries me is ANY wave with convection.
ANY area of convection that gets into the Caribbean.
Worries me because the water is super duper HOT there.


So let's wait and pray a bit...
...that the area of convection previously watched.
Now ignored by the NHC lumbers along...
..with no center developing.
No rotation.
Because should anything get in that region...
..and have any spin to it.
It will become a problem...
...there or when it turns the corner by the Yucatan.
And it could get into the Gulf.
Sneak into the Gulf.
So let's hope it just shuffles off to the EPAC.


You can loop this yourself.
Save the link.
It's one of the best loops.
It shows what is....
...and it has a predictive value.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=120hrs&anim=anigf

If you see rotation beginning...
little pinks (there now) growing...spinning.
Then we have to wonder why it's ignored.

Oh because the models.
Models are wonderful.
They are computers.
They are not people.
They miss small things.... 
They are garbage in and garbage out.

As long as things stay in the Atlantic WNW to NW..
they seem to curve out.
But should something get underneath.
Be it Karen or well near where Matthew spun up.
We could have a big problem on many levels.

Hope not.
Prepare for the worst.
Hope for the best.
Party when they miss ya...

Much love.
I'll update tomorrow.
Later today should NHC name a new storm.
In fujiwara hyper ADD speed.
I'm a bit ADD so I can say that...

Check back later for updates.
A bit tired from the Blitzkrieg NWS like reporting.
On what was going on after Imelda formed.
I prefer information in advance...
...but you can't always get what you want.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Is Imelda gonna get to San Antionio?
Wondering....


Will it's moisture make it to Oklahoma?
Keeping this here....
...one of my all time favorite songs.




















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posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:04 AM

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