Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Updated 6 PM - The Novel of TS Karen... Center Stage... Lorenzo Going Major Hurricane Safely Out At Sea Now. Jerry POOF Post Tropical. Models Maps and Music


6 PM
The update I said I would do.
But there isn't much new to say.
The Fujiwhara dance for Karen...
...has been with the ULL.
And Karen is losing.

One of my favorite Carolina Meteorologists.
Good map of the tropics tonight.
Karen and Lorenzo.



So let's look at Karen tonight.
Not a pretty site.



The NHC by their own words said they were not sure of the intensity of Karen measured in different ways earlier during a rain storm. I'm not going complain about the NHC on this one as they are trying to provide continuity to the viewing public they are trying to protect and on the small chance Karen ramps up again (and it has been known to pulse up erratically) they don't want people to let their guard down. They are walking back their previous intensity forecast with lowered expectations and unless Karen does something fast, it will most likely be downgraded to a Depression at 11 PM. My guess, you never really know what the NHC will do but that's my thought at 6 PM.  Leaving you the link to the discussion that explains the reasons the NHC maintained Karen as a Tropical Storm when it is very difficult to even find it on satellite imagery.


The Upper Level Low is winning that battle and even if it moves away soon there may not be enough of Karen to put back together once it finds positive conditions. Shear killed off Jerry and shear is killing off Karen. Perhaps the shear deserves an award of some kind for protecting the East Coast from what could have been a serious landfall by Jerry and a second hit from Karen. Humberto for that matter could have been a problem, but it was blasted by shear so let's call this the year of Shear and give shear a thanks because tropical systems can avoid High Pressure but when Shear races after them slamming them relentlessly with shear from strong Upper Level Lows the cyclone always loses.  They can be powerful deal breakers and in rare circumstances the ULL can ventilate a cyclone and intensify it but it can also kill it faster than you can say "Post Tropical Cyclone Jerry" if you see what I mean.

Now we have Lorenzo.
Hurricane Lorenzo.
A Classic Hurricane.
Beautiful.


I said I'd talk about Lorenzo.
There isn't much to say other than it's rare.
Rare to be that strong that far East.


Phil is the keeper of statistics.
He has an amazing brain.
If there is a statistic to find ... he finds it.
Strongest hurricane this far East...
...this late in the calendar year.

From day one Lorenzo was a stunner.
And he is stunning.
Far away and not hurting anyone.
You can't feel guilty for staring at him..
...in wonder.


Below you can see the difference.
A real Tropical Cyclone...
...and a decaying weak Tropical Storm.

I wanted you to be able to compare...
Karen with Lorenzo.
A weak TS and a Hurricane.
So you see the difference...
...on the water vapor loop.




So until we know if Karen survives.
We will have to put those long range models aside.
If it does survive or come back...
..we will revisit the situation.
In truth Karen has come back often.
And despite being weak.
It delivered a strong blow to Puerto Rico.
An island just putting itself back together after Maria.
and impacted Trinidad an island rarely impacted.
So as I've said before Karen is tricky.
I keep waiting for some surprise move.

This is good video posted on Twitter.
Karen has caused flooding on multiple islands.




And lastly before talking Hurricane History below...
..know models are beginning to latch onto the GOM storm.
I've mentioned it many times recently.
Been concerned on something forming there.
With a strong high to the North...
...and so much tropical, moist air to the South.
It's only a matter of time.
And it has Climo stamped all over it.




Now for some Hurricane History on Loopers.
Also...there's been much talk on Jeanne and Betsy.
Two of our favorite looping hurricanes.





Note Betsy was a strong hurricane ..
...going into her 2nd loop.
Weak on 1st loop.



Jeanne a weak storm beginning the loop.
Strengthening as it neared Landfall.

Again cone for Karen.


Can Karen survive until she gets to ....
...where she can intensify?
That's far down the road.
Though she has been tricky.
And often full of surprises.

Putting this video here so you can see ...
..the ongoing drama of Karen.
And the Mid to Upper Level Low.
I'll just say ULL but that's to be exact.
Turn the sound up... or just watch.



11 AM no real changes to track.
NHC keeps intensity at 45 MPH.
Worth noting they can't find the center.
"The initial position is a little difficult to locate"
Probably because it may not have a real center.

Discussion explains the problems ....
..and their solution maintaining status quo.
Tends to work often...
..especially with systems that pulse up and down.


GFS and EURO barely see Karen.
They definitely don't hold onto it.
Tho other models do keep it around.
You can find the whole Discussion at NHC.

Cone basically the same.


Continue reading if you haven't...
..it's from around 9:30 this morning.
I'll update after the 5 PM.
Recon is scouring Karen ....
...trying to ascertain it's real center.
Stay tuned.

PS Lorenzo is a beautiful 85 MPH Hurricane.
I'll discuss Lorenzo later this afternoon.
Of concern currently are models showing Karen..
... looping or traveling near the East Coast.





Jerry at the top with the X in it...
Post Tropical.

Tropical Storm Karen center stage.
Hurricane Lorenzo far to the East.
Yellow area 10% anchored near the Yucatan.

You know the reality of life is after a Major Hurricane such as Dorian everyone is a little ragged and nervous when they hear there is a tropical system out there somewhere in the Atlantic. But, the reality is that you don't see a Hurricane Dorian form all the time and even if we get another Major Hurricane it won't be Dorian. When Hurricane Andrew rolled West towards Miami in 1992 many people say Hugo that had trashed South Carolina in 1989, the scenes of devastation were ripe in our terrified minds. In reality you have to take every tropical system as it's own unique entity and even mild mannered storms can become problematic when they switch directions and take detours towards your town. And, often they take a detour and go around whatever the problem in the road is (in our case a strong High Pressure Ridge) and then they continue on their way as if they had never turned right. That doesn't mean there is no danger of Karen impacting the Florida coast, but it means it has to be measured in concern by it's actual intensity and strength and monitored for any changes in intensity, strength or track. So keep that in mind while reading things online, looking at models or reading the rest of this blog. Thanks.

Current radar showing parts of Karen.

JUA_loop.gif (600×550)

The satellite loop below.

GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif (900×540)

The models and the cone are below.
I'll talk on beautiful Hurricane Lorenzo later.


And note Jerry is now Post Tropical 
There as a naked swirl but nothing more.
It's "there" but not there.
It's signature doesn't disappear overnight.
On Mimic it's very noticeable.
Yet so is the dry blue ridge North of Karen.


Kind of a disconnect isn't it?
You can see Jerry but it's lost it's Mojo.
Yet Karen a weak system is barely there.
To the East is Hurricane Lorenzo.
Understand each product shows us...
...different things we need to see.
And in this case...
...note that dry air over Florida.
Now those models....


Putting this up from Spaghetti Models.
Adore Mike... 
He can seem very ADD all over the place yet..
...he has the most organized mind.
And it shows on his site.
He's an awesome guy.
Good amateur meteorologist too!
Lover of weather...


So looking at that you go..
"Oh My GOD"
Keep in mind this is a weak system.
And look carefully at the end game.


OH.... you can see how that cone would go.
Some models go WSW to Cuba.
Others break away and scare the Carolinas.
While Florida watches and waits.
Some turn back when the High is gone.
Not very helpful but we like models.


Above is the shear game.
Green is go.
Red is no.
Yellow is go slow.
Barely there Karen is under green.
But is sandwiched in by shear.
That's why the long term forecast is weak.


No don't look at Lorenzo to the right.
Big hurricane. Probably a Major.
Good place for a Major.
We can loop and love it far from land.
And that little S looking symbol is Karen.
Note the High off Mike's house near Tampa.
A high to the North.
Trapped, weak and needing help.

Currently Karen is weak.
Remember that.


And ...oh my goodness.
The Discussion from the NHC keeps it weak.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/
MIATCDAT2+shtml/250852.shtml

Good discussion trying to explain Karen.
You can read it above.
Bits and pieces of it below.
For people not used to reading the NHC
I'll translate here and there.

Karen is not well organized.
It has vortexes and secondary mid level circulations.
One has developed N of PR.
It's redeveloped more than moved there.
They are watching San Juan radar..

Note the Tweet I made yesterday...
..trying to show Karen's movement.
As the NHC has been trying to nail down...
...the exact center for days.



Steering currents will soon collapse.
"CLOCKWISE LOOP"
Karen is gonna be a looper.
That High Pressure Ridge I showed above...
...is one huge RED STOP SIGN.
Then it sees a "detour" sign... 
..and loops off the main road.


Note they say W to WSW 
Those are those tracks towards Cuba.
While it's looping.


Intensity forecast is perplexing.
What that really means is.
Karen is perplexing.
NHC trying to be conservative.
"Stay the course" kind of...
Let's see what happens but it should stay weak.

There's a problem.....
Karen will move thru low vertical shear...
...sitting over warm water.
So they compromise carefully for the forecast.

See the perplexing frustrating part is...
Some models show a hurricane.
Other models lose Karen completely.
Not an easy dance for the NHC.
Personally I'd sit this one out ...
...wait til the next song.
Next model run.

Bottom line here is two fold. Karen is not really moving as much as reorganizing everywhere near Puerto Rico and while we sit here analyzing it's 7th day (if it has a 7th day) it is pouring still over parts of PR and the Virgin Islands that have already had flooding and there are power outages. So really where are our priorities? Talking model fantasies or dealing with reality of what PR and VI are going through and remembering Karen could once again have something up it's sleeve and surprise us closer to Florida way, way down the tropical road? 

And my forever logic is when something doesn't make sense, it is possible it's you don't have all the facts. And the reality is it is possible while Karen is sitting behind some stop sign or try and picture yourself stuck in an hour plus road stop on I95 while they are doing construction and an accident happened and you aren't going anywhere any time soon... it's possible something else is going to happen. You know when Waze shows you the time of arrival and then there's an accident or multiple accidents up ahead and you begin to get notices of problems and the time of estimated arrival keeps getting further and further away? 

Yes.. it's possible something else happens. It's also possible some other system begins to try and form or low pressure forms nearby and gives Karen a path away from the pesky high pressure or an Upper Level Low forms and everything changes and I mean everything as in all your worst fears may go away or things you never worried on may happen. Or Karen gets blown away much like Jerry did but that happens much closer to land so somewhere, someone gets a rain shower from what was once Karen. Just so many ways to end this chapter in the 2019 Hurricane Season.

Stay tuned. I'll update later today with more model discussion and some videos.

Much love and thanks for your patience, it's been a long season for us with repetitive patterns but watch out we may have a new sort of system soon and as we move deeper towards October we look towards the SW Caribbean.  Yes that's foreshadowing...


Hint look left near Central America.
Gulf of Mexico purple..
But yes another CV wave may form.
But what would, could impact Karen's track.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram



















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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:22 AM 0 comments

Monday, September 23, 2019

5 PM. Karen Demoted to TD. Tho Forecast to be a TS Again Down the Tropical Road. Yellow Circle Near the Yucatan. My Mermaid Area...2 PM Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forms! Jerry King of the Road, Karen Questions.. So Many Questions About Karen ... Models Getting Funky.


 5 PM.
Live Blogging huh?
Going to take a break.
As I said below... not much has changed.
Tropical Storm Karen was demoted.
Kind of as expected.
How much foreshadowing can the NHC do?
How many planes can be sent it to find...
...what isn't there.

Note they forecast it to be a TS again.
After it moves through the Islands.
And when it turns West towards Florida.
So will Karen reform?
Maybe.
Stay tuned.
Interesting tropical drama.

Good graphics in one tweet so using it.
Good to follow always.
Seems the planes kept looking...
...but as the song goes.
There was nothing at all.
TD not TS for now.
Karen in time out this afternoon...
...cone though the same.
And many cities in it's Wind Probs.
See cones below.




4:30
I like to put things up before the 5 PM advisory.
That way it's my thoughts and perhaps.
Explains what the 5 PM is showing.

Details matter.
So does timing.
And the whole issue right now is timing.
Intensity questions persist on Karen.
Models are funny.
Consistently delivering tropical rain to SFL.

3 Players right now.
Don't forget Lorenzo out there.
Looking beautiful but not near us.

What's odd is models see different things.
Some keep Karen an entity.
Other's lose Karen than Karen comes back.
Some see something by the Yucatan.
Earthnull actually sees Karen well.
Go figure on that one.

Not easy being NHC.
They have to answer to the public.
And to their superiors.
They are the bottom line.

When models don't make much sense.
I watch the water vapor loop and MIMIC.
And wait til the next model run.

GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif (900×540)

There's Jerry center stage.
Karen pulses up and down.
Remember when Jerry did that?
Jerry did it drove everyone crazy.
They seem to be cut from the same cloth.
Near the tip of the Yucatan...
A red dot pops up.
Models don't really see much there.
And Lorenzo far away and beautiful.
I hate to tell you that you have to wait another day.
But it's true.
Karen may be a player...
...or it may be nothing at all.
Yet Karen has been a player.
And players don't like to die...
...but sometimes they play dead.
You know like playing possum...
And then they jump up and come back to life.
When the time is right.
And the shear calms down.

This song is stuck in my head



I made 2 videos.
Think on them when the 5 PM comes out.
And I'll update this evening.
Much to do here and I'm not feeling it.
Something is off...
..something is missing.
Soon we will see it.

I try to keep these to a minute.
Just some thoughts while watching the WV Loop.





Lorenzo discussion.
Not to be forgotten.
Just currently so much drama with Jerry and Karen.





2 PM
Tropical Update... Tropical Outlook.



This yellow circle has popped up.
I've been talking on it all morning.
Alluding to it last night.

Last night I posted this video.
What bothered me was....
...the tremendous amount of convection.
From the Yucatan across the Straits.
With that set up something was up...
1... something could form there.
2... It could impact the track of other storms.



Then I tweeted about it this morning.
It's persisted for way more than 12 hours.
Actually since yesterday moisture has been there.
I made a playful post about a mermaid in the GOM.
Today I posted a picture in a collage.
A reminder that the mermaid may...
...want to play ball.


This is the Tweet from last night.


And the loop discussion that goes with that.
Note I said last night Karen may become an open wave.
Or a weak disturbance perhaps?
If it cannot hold onto TS status.




Breaking it up into parts below.
Something is there, round and anchored.
High to the North.
Kind of trapped a bit currently.


Over and near hot water.


And though the NHC shows formation to the West.
The moisture flow from Jerry is feeding into it.
Much the way Imelda was fed by Humberto..


Rain predictions have been high in that region.
For the next 5 days so you can't blame that on Karen.
So what's causing?
Looking at the satellite image below.


Moisture streaming off of Jerry....
High to the North.
This area looks better than Karen.
Yes, I said that.
And I'll update later.
But the NHC just put a yellow dot.
On my area I've been talking about.


But my issue here is this.
Yes it could form.
But what if Karen falls apart?
Convection wandering around.... 
...possibly off track from the TS Cone?
And Jerry hits a wall of high pressure.
What pulls a system towards Florida?
Vs saying being trapped and looping.
Waiting for the ridge to break?
The only thing that would pull it is...
...if there was low pressure to the West.
And now we see what that might be.

Stay tuned, looking at models at 4 ish.



Lorenzo is finally official!



Note they show say they are being conservative.
I'd give it easy chances of being a Major out at sea.


Showing Jerry first as ...
...there have been questions on it's track.
Long term.


Note they don't slow it down at the end.
Odd... But they bend it a bit South of East.
Will see what they do at 5 pm.
Imagine they like everyone else....
...is waiting on the next model runs.
More on that down deep in the blog.
This is just a 11 AM update.

And Karen remains a question mark.



You can find Karen below....
...down below Jerry.
2 red dots flaring up.
Lorenzo solid red dot far out there.

GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif (900×540)

Here's our satellite loop for the day.
Monday Morning.
Jerry bright and colorful East of Florida.
Waiting for his ticket to ride ...out to sea.
But does Jerry have a surprise for us?
Some models say it's possible.
I mean goes out to sea and then...
....oh what's that all about.


Hmnnn...Remember Karen is down below.
And there's a high pressure ridge building in.

Karen down there somewhere below.
Bits of red and gold.
Sort of like the beginning of Fall.
That officially began today.
Turn your AC down to 69...
...then you'll feel it!!

And off in the East Atlantic is Lorenzo


Models as always from Mike's Spaghetti Models.
www.spaghettimodels.com

Mike's King of the Tropical Road at 9:19 AM.
Listening to him as soon as I'm done here.
I try not to listen or read too much of others...
....before I write in the morning so I stay fresh.
Well... I read the NHC discussion.
So remember Karen is the big question.

Discussion this morning basically is on whether or not Karen survives as a Tropical Storm or gets downgraded to a Tropical Depression. The NHC has put the TD word into their foreshadowing early morning discussion and they are opening the door for that action if Karen doesn't step up to the plate and do something fast to change that eventuality. And, Karen is a big question mark that hangs over the East Coast as many models (as well as the NHC discussion) hold out the possibility that once past PR it may strengthen again; well unless it dies completely. So, today is a day to see what Karen really has and what she does not have... that being a real center with Tropical Storm force winds. Easy money is on a downgrade soon but a possible upgrade in the near future, however I wouldn't bet money on Karen just yet.


As for Jerry as much as it looks like he wants to bust North he is held down by a huge high pressure, yet he pushes against the tide nonstop and you can see this in his current satellite imagery but Jerry has generally held onto to mediocre but there status and stubbornly flares up just when needed to keep the attention of the NHC. It should go out to sea eventually.


Jerry is kind of like King of the Road here ...
....the only really clear cut winner.
Visible easily.


Another view...
Note explosion of convection in Karen.
There is some connection there still.
At times it's connected to Jerry.
At times Karen looks like she leaving Jerry.
So much drama.
Karen may not want to let Jerry go?
Who knows.
Foreshadowing.
Waiting for more models to vote.


Is Jerry looping back?
Keep that in mind when you hear
"out to sea....."
Out to sea but for how long?
Fall Storms often loop.
We are officially into Fall.


Well Mike on Spaghetti Models.
Calls him Juicy Jerry.
Maybe Karen likes that...or not.
Note it's flaring up on the NE side today.
Hmmmn drama..

Speaking of Mike...
..wore his shirt yesterday.
Went to the Flea Market.
Before it becomes the State Fair in October.
Back to the tropical discussion below.
Picture at the bottom ;)

What is interesting is that Karen looks kind of like an appendage to Jerry's tail in this satellite imagery here. Like the tail grew a pimple, or maybe I'm thinking of some Adam's Rib joke but if Karen redevelops it might not be so funny as it may be the trouble Jerry leaves behind as the strong heat ridge once known as Indian Summer in the old days is hanging over the Southeast like one last kiss from Summer before we move finally into Fall. What worries me here is that often Fall and cooler weather is ushered in by some late season hurricane that flips that switch as if it's saying "Lord do I have to do everything by myself!!" and then the hurricane passes inland, the cool air ushers down and people begin to miss what they have been bitching about that being the good old warm days of summer.


But everyone loves Fall right? I do finally, it took a while I will admit, but yeah Fall in the Carolinas is beautiful and football is on the scene as Baseball begins to move towards it's eventual climax and trees lose their leaves one by one and we look longingly towards our first winter snow. In South Florida people longingly look for a cold front and wince knowing snowbirds will be arriving soon.

And that's the way it goes on today the official beginning of Fall, as the Autumn Equinox is today so if you want to do any Fall mischief such as eating pumpkin ice cream or having a Pumpkin Spice Frappe (too hot for lattes) today is your day. Maybe start a new diary or begin a to do list or a Vision Board for Fall. Plan out your Halloween Party and hope that no hurricane is going to come as a surprise guest. We went to the State Fair Grounds yesterday that hosts the NC State Flea Market every month of the year except October when the Fair comes to town. Lots of old toys, yard stuff on sale and Trader Joe's was sampling Pumpkin everything yesterday.



Does Karen want to play ball with Jerry?
Does Jerry want to play ball with Karen.
And what about Lorenzo??

BOTTOM LINE... 
Jerry....doing what Jerry always does, just enough to stay alive.
Karen...a mystery still as to it's current condition and a question mark on the future.
Lorenzo now officially a Tropical Storm forecast for now to go out to sea gracefully.

Will Lorenzo go out to sea gracefully? Maybe.
Will Karen survive? I'd say there's a better chance down the road it's still there than not.
Will Jerry go out to sea... the NHC is sure of it. But will Jerry stay out at sea or ...
...come back for Karen?

Take the day to to what you love doing the most, if you got the time... and if not dream on it a bit when you have a moment to rest. Do not throw out the Hurricane Supplies if you live in South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico states (Alabama included) and if you live further Up North you know what to do with them... hold onto them for Winter Weather and possible Ice Storms.

Images below. I'll do a video later today and some model discussion, but still waiting to see what happens today with Karen before saying more on that. I think Karen has more of a kick than is visible on satellite imagery creating much drama down in the Islands, it's visible on Earthnull for the first time from far away so I'd vote she stays around in some form or another for a bit longer.

 

While not the best signature.
I can see something is there.
Yesterday I could not.
Karen needs to lift it it wants to survive.
Lift or ooze on other and reform it's center.
Karen needs to let Jerry go...


Ironically Karen and Lorenzo 
Have the similar barometric pressure.
Totally different satellite signature but ti's true.
At 11 AM they lowered Lorenzo's a drop.
As it is now a Tropical Storm.


See a tail of 2 storms.
Both had 1007 MB at 5 AM.
Karen had 40 MPH in theory..
... TD13 became Lorenzo.
That was a done deal.


Gotta love the NHC for headlines.
Sounds like a new Fall Drama on ABC!



And of course Karen's ultimate track is a question.
Almost looks like a question mark doesn't it?
Know there are watches and warnings up...
..for the Islands as Karen is forecast to move over them.
While worrying on Florida remember ...
...there's more to Karen's track than that.

According to the NHC...
...for the foreseeable five days.
 Lorenzo going out to sea.




Let's revisit that in 3 or 4 days.
As models this year have been infamous..
..for surprise drama.
Oh and Lorenzo expected to be a Hurricane.
I'd guess they are too low.
May be a Major.
Keep watching.




So there you go a long Monday Morning old fashioned BobbiStorm Blog. Words, maps, discussion, being a bit too silly and offering life suggestions (vision board or football, your call) and I'll add some music in at the end as always. Bit poetic and creative today on the first official day of Fall. I'll do a video or two later, and we will see what the NHC finds out from their Karen Investigation and we will see if Karen tries to reform or not. Stay tuned. So many questions up the road as high pressure building in (sadly, it's hot here) and that high pressure could block Karen (if Karen is still there) from going out to sea. Maybe Karen wobbles or loops or stalls or hauls off to try and do one or two of the beach cities in Florida and I depending on how strong that high pressure ridge is I wouldn't count out Cuba (think Irma) so stay tuned. Check back later and as always follow me on Twitter and Instagram. I post to Instagram but I'm generally on Twitter all day if I'm awake checking it while doing other things.

Know the new models are showing some odd things. Talk on Fujiwara by a few models but that's really out there, can Karen and Jerry leave each other alone is the question? I'll post some cute tango dance later maybe, who knows. Really....who knows, that's the main bottom line today. As always don't eat the hurricane supplies and check back here later.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.



Ps... as the long time readers of this blog know.. I love Nat King Cole.. no one like him. My Grandma Mary played this song on her piano all the time, grew up with it and love it.



Love the pictures here, it's true every leaf becomes a flower in Fall.
And North Carolina Fall is beautiful........ though I may be in Maryland for part of it.

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:44 AM 0 comments