Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Updated 6 PM - The Novel of TS Karen... Center Stage... Lorenzo Going Major Hurricane Safely Out At Sea Now. Jerry POOF Post Tropical. Models Maps and Music


6 PM
The update I said I would do.
But there isn't much new to say.
The Fujiwhara dance for Karen...
...has been with the ULL.
And Karen is losing.

One of my favorite Carolina Meteorologists.
Good map of the tropics tonight.
Karen and Lorenzo.



So let's look at Karen tonight.
Not a pretty site.



The NHC by their own words said they were not sure of the intensity of Karen measured in different ways earlier during a rain storm. I'm not going complain about the NHC on this one as they are trying to provide continuity to the viewing public they are trying to protect and on the small chance Karen ramps up again (and it has been known to pulse up erratically) they don't want people to let their guard down. They are walking back their previous intensity forecast with lowered expectations and unless Karen does something fast, it will most likely be downgraded to a Depression at 11 PM. My guess, you never really know what the NHC will do but that's my thought at 6 PM.  Leaving you the link to the discussion that explains the reasons the NHC maintained Karen as a Tropical Storm when it is very difficult to even find it on satellite imagery.


The Upper Level Low is winning that battle and even if it moves away soon there may not be enough of Karen to put back together once it finds positive conditions. Shear killed off Jerry and shear is killing off Karen. Perhaps the shear deserves an award of some kind for protecting the East Coast from what could have been a serious landfall by Jerry and a second hit from Karen. Humberto for that matter could have been a problem, but it was blasted by shear so let's call this the year of Shear and give shear a thanks because tropical systems can avoid High Pressure but when Shear races after them slamming them relentlessly with shear from strong Upper Level Lows the cyclone always loses.  They can be powerful deal breakers and in rare circumstances the ULL can ventilate a cyclone and intensify it but it can also kill it faster than you can say "Post Tropical Cyclone Jerry" if you see what I mean.

Now we have Lorenzo.
Hurricane Lorenzo.
A Classic Hurricane.
Beautiful.


I said I'd talk about Lorenzo.
There isn't much to say other than it's rare.
Rare to be that strong that far East.


Phil is the keeper of statistics.
He has an amazing brain.
If there is a statistic to find ... he finds it.
Strongest hurricane this far East...
...this late in the calendar year.

From day one Lorenzo was a stunner.
And he is stunning.
Far away and not hurting anyone.
You can't feel guilty for staring at him..
...in wonder.


Below you can see the difference.
A real Tropical Cyclone...
...and a decaying weak Tropical Storm.

I wanted you to be able to compare...
Karen with Lorenzo.
A weak TS and a Hurricane.
So you see the difference...
...on the water vapor loop.




So until we know if Karen survives.
We will have to put those long range models aside.
If it does survive or come back...
..we will revisit the situation.
In truth Karen has come back often.
And despite being weak.
It delivered a strong blow to Puerto Rico.
An island just putting itself back together after Maria.
and impacted Trinidad an island rarely impacted.
So as I've said before Karen is tricky.
I keep waiting for some surprise move.

This is good video posted on Twitter.
Karen has caused flooding on multiple islands.




And lastly before talking Hurricane History below...
..know models are beginning to latch onto the GOM storm.
I've mentioned it many times recently.
Been concerned on something forming there.
With a strong high to the North...
...and so much tropical, moist air to the South.
It's only a matter of time.
And it has Climo stamped all over it.




Now for some Hurricane History on Loopers.
Also...there's been much talk on Jeanne and Betsy.
Two of our favorite looping hurricanes.





Note Betsy was a strong hurricane ..
...going into her 2nd loop.
Weak on 1st loop.



Jeanne a weak storm beginning the loop.
Strengthening as it neared Landfall.

Again cone for Karen.


Can Karen survive until she gets to ....
...where she can intensify?
That's far down the road.
Though she has been tricky.
And often full of surprises.

Putting this video here so you can see ...
..the ongoing drama of Karen.
And the Mid to Upper Level Low.
I'll just say ULL but that's to be exact.
Turn the sound up... or just watch.



11 AM no real changes to track.
NHC keeps intensity at 45 MPH.
Worth noting they can't find the center.
"The initial position is a little difficult to locate"
Probably because it may not have a real center.

Discussion explains the problems ....
..and their solution maintaining status quo.
Tends to work often...
..especially with systems that pulse up and down.


GFS and EURO barely see Karen.
They definitely don't hold onto it.
Tho other models do keep it around.
You can find the whole Discussion at NHC.

Cone basically the same.


Continue reading if you haven't...
..it's from around 9:30 this morning.
I'll update after the 5 PM.
Recon is scouring Karen ....
...trying to ascertain it's real center.
Stay tuned.

PS Lorenzo is a beautiful 85 MPH Hurricane.
I'll discuss Lorenzo later this afternoon.
Of concern currently are models showing Karen..
... looping or traveling near the East Coast.





Jerry at the top with the X in it...
Post Tropical.

Tropical Storm Karen center stage.
Hurricane Lorenzo far to the East.
Yellow area 10% anchored near the Yucatan.

You know the reality of life is after a Major Hurricane such as Dorian everyone is a little ragged and nervous when they hear there is a tropical system out there somewhere in the Atlantic. But, the reality is that you don't see a Hurricane Dorian form all the time and even if we get another Major Hurricane it won't be Dorian. When Hurricane Andrew rolled West towards Miami in 1992 many people say Hugo that had trashed South Carolina in 1989, the scenes of devastation were ripe in our terrified minds. In reality you have to take every tropical system as it's own unique entity and even mild mannered storms can become problematic when they switch directions and take detours towards your town. And, often they take a detour and go around whatever the problem in the road is (in our case a strong High Pressure Ridge) and then they continue on their way as if they had never turned right. That doesn't mean there is no danger of Karen impacting the Florida coast, but it means it has to be measured in concern by it's actual intensity and strength and monitored for any changes in intensity, strength or track. So keep that in mind while reading things online, looking at models or reading the rest of this blog. Thanks.

Current radar showing parts of Karen.

JUA_loop.gif (600×550)

The satellite loop below.

GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif (900×540)

The models and the cone are below.
I'll talk on beautiful Hurricane Lorenzo later.


And note Jerry is now Post Tropical 
There as a naked swirl but nothing more.
It's "there" but not there.
It's signature doesn't disappear overnight.
On Mimic it's very noticeable.
Yet so is the dry blue ridge North of Karen.


Kind of a disconnect isn't it?
You can see Jerry but it's lost it's Mojo.
Yet Karen a weak system is barely there.
To the East is Hurricane Lorenzo.
Understand each product shows us...
...different things we need to see.
And in this case...
...note that dry air over Florida.
Now those models....


Putting this up from Spaghetti Models.
Adore Mike... 
He can seem very ADD all over the place yet..
...he has the most organized mind.
And it shows on his site.
He's an awesome guy.
Good amateur meteorologist too!
Lover of weather...


So looking at that you go..
"Oh My GOD"
Keep in mind this is a weak system.
And look carefully at the end game.


OH.... you can see how that cone would go.
Some models go WSW to Cuba.
Others break away and scare the Carolinas.
While Florida watches and waits.
Some turn back when the High is gone.
Not very helpful but we like models.


Above is the shear game.
Green is go.
Red is no.
Yellow is go slow.
Barely there Karen is under green.
But is sandwiched in by shear.
That's why the long term forecast is weak.


No don't look at Lorenzo to the right.
Big hurricane. Probably a Major.
Good place for a Major.
We can loop and love it far from land.
And that little S looking symbol is Karen.
Note the High off Mike's house near Tampa.
A high to the North.
Trapped, weak and needing help.

Currently Karen is weak.
Remember that.


And ...oh my goodness.
The Discussion from the NHC keeps it weak.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/
MIATCDAT2+shtml/250852.shtml

Good discussion trying to explain Karen.
You can read it above.
Bits and pieces of it below.
For people not used to reading the NHC
I'll translate here and there.

Karen is not well organized.
It has vortexes and secondary mid level circulations.
One has developed N of PR.
It's redeveloped more than moved there.
They are watching San Juan radar..

Note the Tweet I made yesterday...
..trying to show Karen's movement.
As the NHC has been trying to nail down...
...the exact center for days.



Steering currents will soon collapse.
"CLOCKWISE LOOP"
Karen is gonna be a looper.
That High Pressure Ridge I showed above...
...is one huge RED STOP SIGN.
Then it sees a "detour" sign... 
..and loops off the main road.


Note they say W to WSW 
Those are those tracks towards Cuba.
While it's looping.


Intensity forecast is perplexing.
What that really means is.
Karen is perplexing.
NHC trying to be conservative.
"Stay the course" kind of...
Let's see what happens but it should stay weak.

There's a problem.....
Karen will move thru low vertical shear...
...sitting over warm water.
So they compromise carefully for the forecast.

See the perplexing frustrating part is...
Some models show a hurricane.
Other models lose Karen completely.
Not an easy dance for the NHC.
Personally I'd sit this one out ...
...wait til the next song.
Next model run.

Bottom line here is two fold. Karen is not really moving as much as reorganizing everywhere near Puerto Rico and while we sit here analyzing it's 7th day (if it has a 7th day) it is pouring still over parts of PR and the Virgin Islands that have already had flooding and there are power outages. So really where are our priorities? Talking model fantasies or dealing with reality of what PR and VI are going through and remembering Karen could once again have something up it's sleeve and surprise us closer to Florida way, way down the tropical road? 

And my forever logic is when something doesn't make sense, it is possible it's you don't have all the facts. And the reality is it is possible while Karen is sitting behind some stop sign or try and picture yourself stuck in an hour plus road stop on I95 while they are doing construction and an accident happened and you aren't going anywhere any time soon... it's possible something else is going to happen. You know when Waze shows you the time of arrival and then there's an accident or multiple accidents up ahead and you begin to get notices of problems and the time of estimated arrival keeps getting further and further away? 

Yes.. it's possible something else happens. It's also possible some other system begins to try and form or low pressure forms nearby and gives Karen a path away from the pesky high pressure or an Upper Level Low forms and everything changes and I mean everything as in all your worst fears may go away or things you never worried on may happen. Or Karen gets blown away much like Jerry did but that happens much closer to land so somewhere, someone gets a rain shower from what was once Karen. Just so many ways to end this chapter in the 2019 Hurricane Season.

Stay tuned. I'll update later today with more model discussion and some videos.

Much love and thanks for your patience, it's been a long season for us with repetitive patterns but watch out we may have a new sort of system soon and as we move deeper towards October we look towards the SW Caribbean.  Yes that's foreshadowing...


Hint look left near Central America.
Gulf of Mexico purple..
But yes another CV wave may form.
But what would, could impact Karen's track.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram



















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