Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, September 16, 2019

10 PM Update. Invest 98L -20% GOM Texas Rain Maker...Monday Model Madness. Hurricane Humberto. Imelda? Yellow Circle Bringing Flooding Rain NOT Yellow Roses for Texas.



Disturbance close in to Texas.
TX/LA border actually.
Rain potential high.


Jim Williams sent me this......
... NWS earlier put that out.
Refer to them for local information please.




A wise decision tagging it as an Invest.
Invest status heightens awareness.
Bayous flood fast.
Flash Flooding.
If it bleeds it leads....
... media pays it more attention.
People get information faster.

It may never be a TD or TS.
But it can be a real weather maker.
And there has been weather already.
Tropical Disturbance is an old school name.
But it is what it is...
..people in that region need to take it seriously.

A good tweet from a great source of info.




I'll update tomorrow morning.
Humberto looking big.
Invest 97L most likely follows Humberto.
Time will tell.

Track map up at NRL for 97L
Expect an upgrade soon.
TD or TS
Time will tell...



Thank you very much for all those talking tonight..
...on Twitter.
I had a huge headache and then a sick stomach.
From the headache medicine.
Listening to PBS Music History Special.
Awesome.
Nite... 

Ps.. to be clear I need the NHC. You do too.
But there is so much information out there...
..and our way of receiving information changed.
And there is much misinformation everywhere.
Old Cones posted as new on WhatsApp.
Or Facebook....

Stick with who you trust ... 
...over time who have never let you down.
Use common sense.. as Mike says.

8 PM

animate.png (768×496)

The tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico...
... it's spin showing up on long range radar.
Only maintains a 20% chance of development..
..as per the NHC...
As they said on TWC that's 1 out of 5 chances.
This is where TWC really shines.
Because they know to cover it.
The Ex Director of the NHC is at TWC
He knows... you can see his concern.
You can hear it in his voice.

Yet NHC this year seems academic and monotone.
They float an orange X over Tennessee based on models.
It's a huge behemoth blog.. 
....way bigger than what's there now.
They make it a Hurricane based on 
Recon  may have missed a hurricane force wind.
WHAT THE HECK?
No one ever said before... 
But their forecast verified bc it was Barry Cane.

It's not just me that's annoyed.
Annjoyed because I know Houston and I know how it floods.
Fast, flash flooding in the Bayou.

Everyone can make a case for it to be a TD...
..or an Invest except the NHC. 






NHC says go to your local weather office.
Weird when Nola and Miami are in play...
..they are all over it.

It's disappointing.


There are no watches or warnings.
Probably tomorrow they will put something up.
It's a large area... 
... NHC should in my opinion.
Do more than hand off a tropical mess to the NWS.

There are two issues here ... one is that today we don't live in the world my parents did. They got an afternoon paper called The Miami News and my mother rushed out to see what the afternoon paper said as it had late breaking news. She stood nervously by the TV at 5 PM to see what Bob Weaver said on his weather update during the Hurricane Season. If Bob Weaver looked seriously she took it seriously. When she saw Neil Frank, an incredible past Director of the NHC, being interviewed on the news she paid attention to every word he said. And Neil Frank was all about warning the general public of the dangers of tropical systems; especially in regions such as Miami and Houston where new residents didn't understand the dangers of tropical weather. Both Miami and Houston have large transient populations that come in for jobs in many sectors or attend colleges and have never been through a hurricane or tropical system. He was smart, wise, firm and concerned and he did not address his job as some sort of academic position nor do I think he looked at it as a "good government job" he looked at as his chance to warn the general public.

Today... the second issue here... is many young kids never pay for cable TV and don't watch TWC made evident by the commercials on TWC and they do not watch the nightly news, nor listen to drive time radio with weather reports and they get their news from Apps, podcasts and when someone on Whatsapp says "hey did you hear there's an Invest off the coast?" or "did you see the models for that Invest?" or someone sends them a MEME showing Miami being destroyed by a storm. There's a lot of information and if they are like my kids they are amateur meteorologists or they ask their brother who seems to know the models if school is going to be cancelled for their 3 year old who they really hope will go to school. It's a new world, a different world and one of their better past Directors leftt for TWC where he actually probably reaches a larger audience and Neil Frank is gone and it's all about which models verify these days and to be honest they talk as if they personally killed off the hurricane rather than disseminate the information. They seem to take it very personal and as always as Cranky says they need to show you how their previous forecast package verified. Honestly the general public doesn't care... they want to know the bottom line. 

In a year when the NHC posted a yellow X over Tennessee and tracked no real moisture for days because they believed their models and they had Invest 92L over Atlanta Georgia where there was no circulation and mediocre rain then followed a blob across the Gulf of Mexico upgrading it to Hurricane in time for their forecast to verify with discussion that perhaps the recon missed a hurricane force wind... they are seriously lacking credibility. Yet an area in the Gulf of Mexico just offshore moving towards land with the EURO forecasting huge amounts of rain gets no Invest and very little attention and Houston is told to pay attention to their local weather department; I'm sorry then what do we need the NHC for I'm wondering. And I ask that because... many kids have asked me lately "why do we even need the NHC?" and usually I'm dumbfounded fumbling for words.  Private meteorologists have apps and websites.. some use Accuweather or www.weatherbell.com and their parents watch TWC that gives them all the information based on models and satellite images we all see and lastly... ready for this... they listen to Mike on Facebook Live (often when it's over kind of like binging on Netflix) while at work if they are really worried.  

Why follow the NHC that is worrying on a tropical wave in the middle of the Atlantic forecast to follow Humberto up into the Atlantic and they aren't following moisture in the Gulf of Mexico with signs of rotation on their Weather Apps and they are using www.spaghettimodels.com wearing Drunk Donkey Tee Shirts and so everyone has a cousin who does meteorology to poorly quote Jimmy Buffet so who needs the NHC? In a world where private meteorology pays way more and you can listen to Levi Cowan do a video in the evening and follow Mike in the morning... NHC has less and less credibility it seems. They had two hurricanes forecast to move towards Florida and then they both turned away. Low confidence in the NHC these days and to someone old school like me... that's sad. But I guess it is what it is.

Using Cranky's use of the Snow Filter below to show our Gulf of Mexico Blob. 


Humberto safely out to sea...
..despite models showing it would threaten Florida.


So going to tell you this...
Follow whoever you trust most online.
Trust TWC and their coverage.
Check and see when NWS gets around to warnings.
Watch your weather app ...
Do what you got to do...
...and watch Mike at 9:19 AM or on YouTube..
And as Mike says... "use common sense"

I'll be back tomorrow morning.
I'm not expecting a hurricane in Texas..
...not expecting a TS.
Maybe might get one depending on fwd speed.
Maybe a Tropical Depression.
For sure lots of rain.
Rain models on Spaghetti Models.
But I would expect an Invest ... 
... but I guess the NHC doesn't think they need to.

No can't understand it.
REGARDLESS... use common sense.
Bayous flood fast.
Stay ahead of the weather.


Nite BobbiStorm.
If you haven't read today.. keep reading.
You know the drill.

Ps.. either way NHC is covered.
because they gave it a yellow circle.
Sadly it's not Your Momma's NHC.

Neil Frank being interviewed by Jim Williams.
An old clip... smart, good, honest man.
Understood the responsibility of being Director of NHC

http://www.hurricanecity.com/frankno.mp3








My thoughts above.
Reading the blog below they will make more sense.

Tropical Outlook Update from NHC


NHC raised their concerns by 10% at 2 PM
Note they have a "regardless" comment.
"produce locally heavy rainfall"
"later this week"
Looking at the satellite image below.
Nice that the NHC went up to 20% chances.
I'd have gone to 30% personally.
Is what it is...if people watch TWC..
...they are talking about it.


It won't be a huge surprise...
...but a surprise to many sadly.
Without a name no one pays attention.
Sad but true...
..when I say no one I mean people not paying attention.


That's a whole lot of rain.
Galveston, Houston specifically.
The whole Texas/LA border needs to watch.
Houston to Lake Charles.
Beaumont, Texas 
Sabine River.


We have Humberto...
Looks like a huge trof from GOM..
...into the Atlantic.
With oddly Florida dry.
And note the area of convection in the Islands.
From PR down to South America.
That's huge area... no winds.
But totally being ignored.
Exactly where old models showed the old Invest.
Remember that?
Seems the models verified rain wise.


NO yellow circle but just pointing it out
Dorian didn't have that much rain...
..cruising through the Island chain.

Drawing your attention to the EPAC below.
That's extremely busy for late September.
Unusually so I'd say tho happens.
There's shear from KIKO and crew...
moving up into the Gulf of Mexico.
Keeping our area of interest in bay.
But not stopping the rain from falling.
Flash flooding rains in this case.
I may do a brief video to show this to you...
... as I feel it's important to see how I think.


Oddly the shear maps don't look that bad in the GOM.
Something to wonder on and keep watching.


Green is go... red is no.
Yellow is go slow...
Humberto oddly shows up in a sea of shear.
Yet seems to be intensifying.
Some breathing room possible for the GOM rain.
Stay tuned.


Out in the Atlantic.
We have the 3 Amigos (song below)
The lead wave is primed to be named.
90% in the 5 day.


Close up below of our Invest 97L


Nice bones.


Oddly it's twin is following along behind.
And soon we have another 3 Amigos.
As the next one is leaving Africa soon.
2019 Systems have strong DNA

A quick before and after look at GOM.
Early in the loop.


Earlier in the day...
...later in the day.
Convection growing in size.
Perhaps those models saying over a foot of rain..
.... need to be taken seriously.



Before leaving here's Earthnull.
Great site shows us the wind flows.
Many filters, much to play with there.
 Black and white sort of look at Humberto.
The winds of Humberto not the cloud cover.
 Neatly off the East Coast.


Here's the GOM 20% system.
Visible on many levels.


There they are together.
Some wind in that GOM system.
it's not all just rain.


Gusty windy day along the Texas beaches.

A lot to think on...
We love to watch CV waves.
But when there is a Tropical Disturbance...
...knocking at our door.
It deserves a heightened awareness..
...then scrutiny over long range models that don't pan out.
This system is here and will make an impact.

Dorian so far has left a huge financial toll
on the NC beaches.
Homes, businesses.
More with on that later.

Stay tuned..

Great tweet from the wonderful NWS Key West.
Truly one of my favorite NWS offices and crew.


Cute, love honesty and they fixed that loop.
And Yes Bermuda needs to watch Humberto. 
Note while watching Humberto intensifying...
...note the bulk of convection close in to land.
In forecast to cause flooding in Texas beginning tomorrow.
My focus is to warn people of problems.
Problems from the tropics.
More on that in the blog ...keep reading.


There's the 11 AM.
Leaving 5 AM package up.
It's good to see how things evolve.
Especially in discussion.


Note NHC going with the "thereafter" discussion.
Humberto "gradually lift out"
"exact timing that the trough... "
Such drama when you read between the lines.
Mentions model divergence.
I wrote about that below earlier this morning.
Cone "nudged only slightly southward"


Again models diverge.... 
My thought...
...it should go out to sea.
So don't worry...
 too much anyway.
Always watch until it's gone, gone, gone.


Especially as NHC as Major Hurricane in sites.
115 MPH in 36 hours?

Summary of today's thoughts.
Mostly for my daughter's boyfriend ...

1. Humberto a Hurricane. Forecast to be stronger.
2. 97L in Atlantic most likely Imelda.
3. Both are expect to go out to sea.
4. GOM Yellow bringing HEAVY RAINS to Texas.
5. Model discussion for the coming week.
6. Mondays are for models and music.
7. Compare models and NHC discussion 
8. Enjoy and have a wonderful day!



Humberto wrapped up and ...
..safely offshore.


3 Things to Talk About.
The obvious is not the issue.
The small yellow circle is an issue.
No name may happen....
...but heavy flooding is in the forecast.


There's Humberto to the right.
Florida in the middle.
Texas Trouble on the left.
Both have lots of rain.
But only one is going to impact land soon.

Check out this image.


What I find odd is...
...if this area was off the Miami coast.
I'd bet you much dinero $$$
...it would get a TD or a name.
But Texas (like last year) nope...
...just gets no name rain.
2018 was a crazy year for rain in Texas.
From barely formed storms that had no name.
Why I don't know.
Just pointing it out.

So 10% Yellow.... 

Check out the trouble...
...10% yellow is causing.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

"regardless of development, this system is expected..
...to produce locally heavy rainfall"


This area formed inside the HUGE ULL..
...that sheared Humberto to hell..
Stopped it from impacting SFL.
But the rain trapped in it...
...is moving into Texas.
EURO showing more than 10 inches of rain.
MORE than 10 inches of rain.
No name so we just blame a low.
Watching the LOOP below.


atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

You can see how much rain there is headed to Texas.
Note Humberto.... 
Humberto is a hurricane going out to sea.
10% Yellow is headed into Texas.
With a bouquet of Yellow Roses 
And tons and tons of rain.

My brother in Greece.... 
...when he was little loved this song.


My mother had old Country Records...
Mixes of songs and that was his favorite.
He did end up living in Texas for a year or so.
Weather and music... 
My favorite mix.

Weather Drama is always interesting.
Twists and turns.
Remember that when I talk on Humberto.

Don't you love when they say "regardless"
As for 97L it is expected to get a name.
And get a name fast...
...recon is parked down in Carib.
Going to fly in soon enough.



Small, but pesky but hopefully out to sea.
Why? If all goes well.
Humberto is a 2 for 1...
...in that it draws the next storm away.


Speaking of Humberto...
...Currently forecast to be 110 MPH.


There's Humberto.
Finally coming into it's own...
...where others did that went before him.
So far been a good year for Florida.


There's a hiccup in the forecast tho...
... but it should just be a hiccup and nothing more.
A few models this weekend veered left.
Left meaning West.
And Humberto may move more to the left...
...flirt with New England.
Then be dragged out to sea again eventually.

Showing you NHC discussion as it's good to read.
And it's easy enough to read if you get used to it.


Models.... aforementioned trough.
Caught... "cut-off"
"but confidence" 4 to 5 day is low.

So let's look at our wind probs.


So you ask why they would be in wind probs?
IF it's for sure going out to sea?
They expect it to go out to sea....
... but a bit of low confidence.
We'll see.


Next I want to mention something first before going on.
My thoughts vs models or NHC.


Above we have the 3 Amigos.
What's interesting is...
Everyone is totally ignoring the lead system.
Remember when it was all the rage of the models.
But despite it not having development...
...it's got the most rain close in.
So note the Islands are getting rain.
Watch it... doesn't cost anything.
I'm watching it.
It's weather impacting people.

Further out we have two waves.
Invest 97L sitting in the pocket.
Small, less weather but high odds



90% in NHC lingo means...
..we're sure on it.
But we want to send the planes in.
So there should be an update later today.
To TD or Imelda.

Models... 
Let's do Model Monday ;)

Start with the GFS because...
... it's the American model.
Not as sexy as the European but hey..
...it is what it is.
Remember tho the GFS is a long range model.
So while not good on short term...
...it's not always good on long term.
BUT...it shows long term trends.
Trends are important.
Both in fashion and models.
Weather models ;)


See the small CLOSED circle off Texas.
No name but carrying yellow roses.
Humberto offshore.
New 97L trying to get a name.
Another Low comes off Africa..
Texas gets a lot of rain.
I showed that on the loop.
So zooming down to Saturday.
Oh...Humberto is still here.


Small Dorian sort of low near Islands.
Weak, watching Humberto.
A weak from now HUMBERTO... up by Canada.
Imelda (probably) chasing Humberto.
Another small low in the MDR
High anchored protectively over Florida and SE



September 30th... zooming thru the month.
Low near Florida (big surprise)


October 2nd...
Barely there closed low anchored off Miami Beach.
Maybe Bimini.
High back in control in Atlantic.


Again only use a long term model for trends.



Our Euro Model.
Is it just me or do you think of Bridgett Bardot when I say that?
She was beautiful........
...why don't we have a Hurricane Bridgett?

Humberto off the coast.
Thursday.
Winking up at Long Island...
..and New England.

September 19th.
Great day.
A son born that day.
A close friend born that day.
And an intense I guy I dated.
Hurricane Territory day ..


But hopefully Humberto is just a tease


September 23rd up above.
After all the drama..
Humberto flies off for Canada.
I storm blocked the High ...
and traveling in Humberto's wake.
New wave off of Africa.

Imagine that's the one the GFS sees...
...headed to the tourist spot of the year.
Florida/Bahamas.
Who knows.
But remember October can be a mean month.
I worry more on what gets into the Carib.
And moves up into the Gulf of Mexico then.

Next we have the ICON
Cause I'm kind of into it this year.


Icon shows Humberto offshore.
Imelda in the Atlantic.
September 19th....
(reminder send a present to Levi)
(my Levi not Cowan..same name)


Small Low forms but can't close off in Carib.
Watch those show up later towards October.
Imelda West bound...
Humberto going out to sea.

September 21st below.


Here we go again...

Great song....


So where do we go from here....

Time will tell?

I'll update later today ...
...up at the top of this blog.

It's Hurricane Season.
Do NOT let your guard down.
Don't worry... or frown 
(causes frown lines...)
But keep watching the tropics.
And even for no name storms...
..that cause much rain and flooding.

If it's out there...
...I'll talk on it.
And watch my rowdy friends.
Mike 
Dabuh
Cranky
Jim
and of course regardless...
the NHC ;)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me on Twitter for live breaking weather
Follow me on Instagram for Weather, Ice Cream and Make Up 










posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:46 AM

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