Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, September 13, 2019

Tropical Depression NINE in the Bahamas...Forecast to be Humberto. Invest 96L In Atlantic. Convection in the Gulf of Mexico... Watch for Home Grown. No Models Show That But Watch Anyway.



Tropical Depression #9


5 PM Friday.
Tropical Depression #9
Earlier I said 9 as I believed they were going there.
But until I see official advisory I wait.
I'll just always think of it as #9 
Below explains why...

Discussion explains why they upgraded.


Planes found a center of circulation.
A bit East of the previous estimate.
That's why the cone has been shifted East.


Shear is there, conditions not great yet.
But it's #9
Forecast to be Humberto.


Note they say the center reformed.
I sure hope it stays there...
...doesn't shuffle back and reform.
It's not the most well developed depression.
Note the convection shown above in orange/reds..
...is to the East of the center.
As the shear from the ULL remains.

NHC forecast to be a Hurricane.



Wide view shows it's still part of the trough.
Remember there's convection in the Gulf of Mexico.


One long West to East Mess.
Yet Florida is pretty dry ..go figure.


Models all made a hard right turn.
One tries to hit OBX.
A few show a slower turn to the right...
...coming close to Florida.

These models are NOT set in stone.
24 hours ago they were very different.
The stronger Humberto gets...
... the better the models get.

Bermuda could be in play...
..and I'm not totally sold yet on the models.
And the cone will wiggle if the models change.
So stay tuned and as always.
Use www.spaghettimodels.com to follow 9.
Note... some models show very slow movement.
Others not...
Slow allows it to get stronger.
But slow can bring problems later.
Let's hope for the best...
...prepare for the worst.

Note the convection in SW Carib..
..most likely tries to form in the EPAC.




Showing this tweet from one of my favorite Mets.
In one of my favorite places.
When in Myrtle Beach I watch him live.

Note models mostly go out to sea.
Some stay closer to the coast.
Ensemble models different from others.
They are helpful in putting together a forecast.




Note the moisture associated with 9...
... is flowing towards the coast currently.
If it wraps up tightly...
... there would be less rain concerns.

I'll go through the GFS, EURO and ICON
shortly...


Note we have Number 9.
I may just think of it like that.
Had a boyfriend loved the song...
Love Potion #9
So going with that.
Hopefully 9 shows us some love and stays offshore.
Still note the convection in the GOM
Also convection in SW Carib.
(SW Carib prob crosses over and forms in EPAC)
(this time of year we begin to watch the SW Carib)
(I'm using parenthesis.. because I'm whispering...)


Lead system shown below.

Wave closest to us has highest chances.
You'll see on models later why.

Wave further away less chances.
Mind you this changes in real time.
Originally NHC gave 9 low chances.
Very low chances.


Read what I wrote before.
Watch the video I posted.
Then look at the models.
Or just go for the models ;)


Somethings that need addressing.
The double trouble tropical waves in the Atlantic. Can they both form? Will either form?
Where would these two waves go should they become players ... named storms?

And much of that discussion above depends on PTC9 forecast to become a Tropical Storm and eventually Hurricane Humberto. But will the models verify or change later today or over night. Not sure why but models seem to love to flip flop over night so we wake up to "oh my goodness" or whatever your favorite "oh crap" phase is...

Currently it is moving very slowly, it's basically stationary over the same general area where Dorian was stationary. That's a huge go figure. But as I said in the blog before Dorian stalled ... systems often stall in that area of the Bahamas. Mike on Facebook this morning said he feels a stall is coming but added no models really called for that. He also said it's important to have common sense when models are unreliable. What does that mean?

You keep your home prepared for a visit from a tropical entity and don't eat the hurricane supplies or waste extra money you may need later. You follow my blog, your favorite online sources, your local sources of weather both on air and your local NWS and .... the NHC and their ever popular 5 Day Cone. But know their cone is much more reliable when there is an extremely intense hurricane and definitive steering currents. So keep watching we aren't there yet.

Note... my husband just called me to tell me that it just began raining. I follow Wes in Raleigh and he used to follow old timers that are no longer there, so now he's a convert as he follows Wes and Wes apparently said 3 PM it could start raining. It's raining. 

I'll add model discussion in regarding 96L and 95L later this afternoon. This is the tropics as it is today and know things are evolving. I'm not a Pro at this but trying. I know turn the camera the other way, great funky Water Vapor Loop that allows you to turn the world around the way you can Earthnull.





GFS really doesn't want to get with the program.
It remains the closest to the Florida coast.
This is for SUNDAY..


Monday...


Stays offshore.
Closed off looking stronger.

Wednesday....


Oh look it has a friend.


Humberto gets large.
Swims out to sea.
The name would live on...


Doing the dance steps of the year.
... Imelda in moves up through Bahamas..


Stays offshore.

Remember names are subject to change.
Until they are given.
Just saying it could be Imelda.

Now we look at the EURO.
KING EURO.. 
Monday.
Off shore... Humberto.


Small L forming in the MDR.
Humberto sailing away.
The Small Low still small.


Move on down to Sept 23, Monday.
Has a small ghost like closed isobar below.


Hanging out off N Coast of Cuba where #9 began.

Showing the ICON model.
It's the "German" model.
Cranky and others talk on it.
I've been watching it.
It's always good to watch.
Note the ICON was the first to go with...
...up the coast and just offshore idea for 9.

Sunday. Off shore... 


Shows two systems trying to develop in MDR
Tuesday Humberto safely offshore.
Beaches should get huge waves.


Note above a L sneaks into the Carib.
Another Low is left behind.

Below


Friday... Humberto out to sea.
The lows keep moving W to WNW.
More so than say the EURO.


AGAIN MODELS CHANGE OFTEN.

The other day they were in the GOM or FL.
Yet this afternoon a huge ridge builds in...
(heard that before)
And Humberto takes a hard right turn..
..out to sea.

As always this can and often does change.
Hopefully we get lucky as we did with Dorian
But our luck was the Bahamas misfortune...

Over the weekend if you live in the SE..
Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.
Please watch Humberto carefully...
... hope the out to sea solution verifies.
But be ready to deal with any fast changes..
...in the forecast from the NHC
And for any Home Grown problems that arise.
It's just been that time of year.
The Gulf of Mexico is primed for a storm.
If a real hurricane gets in there...
...the water is extremely hot.
Too hot for people from LA to swim ..
...in that bathtub.
But it would support a strong hurricane.
Remember that while watching the remake of Dorian...
...or the ghost of Donna on models.

Thanks for all your great input on Twitter.
And I'll update Saturday evening.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

If you have not read this blog earlier today.
Keep reading... thanks!









2 PM Advisory. 
New Forecast Package at 5 PM.

From 11 AM Discussion.



 I'm old school as I was trained by old school forecasters and meteorologists who I used to argue why they had to stick to the rules so much. It took a long time, I get it... we need rules that all abide by vs making up a point as an advisory. I get it's a "potential" cyclone but still they are guessing where the center is and the models are getting bad information to use as a starting point. It is what it is... it is a developing system. "Initial position is a point near the middle of the trough but not quite as far east as ...." you get the idea. The video I made and posted below shows the sheared environment and explains to you WHY it's sheared and what PTC9 is dealing with as it tries to find a place it can gain footing and begin to wrap up as a real cyclone. Choppy waters if you have even had a small little cute boat that goes out into rough waters and speed boats zoom by making it more choppy and you get lost a bit in the wake.. that's what shear is like in this case for PTC9. At some point the weather conditions or as we say the environment gets better and it can ventilate and develop the real look of a cyclone vs a blob. Stay tuned. Updated cone below.



If PTC9/TD9 or Humberto stays over water...
Warm water beneath it's wings...
...will lift it up to where it belongs.
Hurricane Humberto.
But we have a long way to go from here to there.

Note in Raleigh...
The NWS changes forecast discussion in red...
..in real time so we can see changes from the forecast.
Forecast as in recent forecast.
They have been doing that all day.
They couldn't nail the forecast down all day.
Mind you I love it.
It's cooler than expected ...tho oddly warm.
When the sun peaks out it's warm.
Rarely has the sun peaked out.
The heavy cloud cover is not lifting.
It doesn't show up on WV Loop well.
It doesn't show up on the loop at the bottom well.
But it's heavy, low and feels pregnant with rain drops.
Almost damp yet it's not raining and it's not fog. 
That's the best I'll do in explaining it.


Those clouds are not fog.
They are dark and threatening...
...yet quietly calming.

I got an asthma attack today.
To be fair I was in Belk shopping.
The weather is off....
...I'm okay.

I'll talk on models for 96L later.
This is just to update with the 11 AM package.
and to say we are still PTC9.
Note that recon has found multiple centers.
That's expected in a developing system.
But until one takes over and can gain traction.
It is what it is...
...models not really doing well.
How can they?
They have an estimated center.
Expect them to get better once Humberto is named.

Stay tuned.
Keep reading if you did not.
Turn the sound up on the videos I made.
The ULL and PTC9
Tropical Drama.



Our tropical system above.
PTC9
It may get upgraded today.
I'll update later this afternoon around 4 PMish.

Currently I'm going to discuss this system below.


Earthnull shows it closing off a center.
Let's see what recon finds later.


Way much better than yesterday.
Exactly where this pulls together is important.
The future models run from that point.
The track changes if it's further East...
...or further West.
The cone is changed.
Our focus changes.
Though from there it's about steering currents.
Not just models trying to pin point development.
The small circle by Cuba is just my mouse.
Ignore though that is where this system came from..


Mike said something earlier today when I was able to listen and that is "common sense is your guide this year" and he's right. Though in truth that statement goes all the time. Often things the NHC does make no sense and very often it verifies and other times something happens that wasn't as expected though discussed and they adjust in real time and people feel blind sided. So yes, common sense is your guide but as many say the only problem with common sense is it's not common...sadly true sometimes. And that's where people like Mike and others come in ... you use www.spaghettimodels.com you listen to www.tropicaltidbits.com when he does a video and his site is excellent, you pay for a site such as www.crownweather.com as he provides an excellent detailed product for your needs and many in business be it they own farms or work in the travel industry need a more detailed product than they get at TWC or from NWS main page. And, I'm here doing my thing just as Dabuh does his thing. Think of us like a 28 Flavor Tropical Ice Cream Store providing you whatever flavor your most in the mood for each and every day during the Hurricane Season. And, many of us cover the weather in the winter too so ...we stay open throughout the year not just the tourist season.

Bare with me today, I'm okay but one of my daughters is in the hospital with a severe allergic reaction to something but we aren't sure what and they are treating the symptoms and she's responding well though somewhat groggy from the antihistamines; her older sister keeps calling me with information and well you get the idea. Hopefully she'll be okay and she is way better than yesterday but I'm not in love with nebulous answers ... be it my daughter's health or why this wayward system isn't yet there but it just off the East Coast with some models taking it onshore and other's staying Dorian like offshore and many dire considerations down the tropical road.


This afternoon I'll discuss this graphic below.
We will see at 2 PM if they change it at all.
Today is a compare and contrast day.



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/130858.shtml
Discussion from this morning. Read it. Compare and contrast it to the one at 11 AM.
I have to go somewhere this morning so I'll update later, but you know where to find the 11 AM so I'll update as I can and then around 4 or so I'll do a longer blog on the new Invest 96L and it's future possibilities as we firm up Humberto that is forecast to form soon enough close in.

Please the NHC discussion and yes it's long and detailed but a very well put together discussion of what PTC9 was at 5 AM and why it's taking it's time to be a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. It's a very complicated set up with something in that shows potential but needs time for the ULL to evolve/move away and the center to build up and take over so that it begin to do it's thing. We may not like what it's thing is down the line, just saying. So stay tuned in and informed on the storm as it forms and the NHC tries to get better data out of the models once they feed better data into the models. True statement as always, garbage in gets you garbage out.

So doing things a little different this morning so you can see how I think and I try very hard to use simple language anyone and everyone can understand as that is who my blog is for... both friends who are meteorologists and even forecasters and the regular folk who live in hurricane country and didn't take classes in meteorology or get a degree and need to know what is going on and like to read long blogs. Okay maybe you're here for the music... but pretty sure you are looking for deeper information than what is generally given out in sound bites or headlines and many people today no longer live and die by TWC as many do not have regular Cable vs Hulu and Netflix and yes I know like information on YouTube. Our world is changing and we get information from APPS and from friends in WhatsApp and we search out sites online that have reliably helped us find the information we need. I worked for years as a Research Librarian and yes I am that sort of person also and we are blessed in today's world to have satellite imagery and classes online and experts providing expert information on meteorology be it a Winter Storm or a Hurricane. Nuff said.

This is me thinking out loud last night.
Half asleep .. bored during the debates.
But trying to get some sense of candidates..
..and some sense of PTC9
Turn sound on



This is me thinking out loud this morning.
You can see it looks better this morning.
Turn the sound on...
It may look much better this afternoon.
And note over time how the ULL evolves.
ULLs are amazing features.
I'm always watching them...
...they and the Water Vapor Loop are awesome.



Nespresso asked me which coffee I was drinking.
The answer was... Chiaro... with cream and a bit of sugar.
Over ice :)

 I'll be back this afternoon.
NHC forecasts intensification.
We can see now it's doing just that...
..slowly.
Needs some breathing room from the ULL.
But it's getting there.
Again we may not like where it gets.
Currently most models take it out to sea.
Wouldn't that be lovely.
We'll see.
Listen to the NHC
and as always use common sense!



atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)


Be Back Later... more on 96L this afternoon..
...BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
sorry on any typos... will fix later.
Crazy morning...



posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:28 AM

1 Comments:

At 8:23 AM, Blogger William Solomon said...

"We'll see" is what you said in response to models taking it #9 out to sea. Do you not feel it's a certainty? Even w/ models been trending east since yesterday.

 

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