Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, September 07, 2019

Weekend Update on Tropics. Deadly Destructive Dorian Does Canadian Maritimes. Power Outages, Crane Collapse. Gabrielle FISH Storm. Where's HUMBERTO? Home Grown or Westbound Wave?


Enjoy the Atlantic quite.
It won't last long.
First Dorian update ....
...things you may not have seen.

Yes they get Noreasters up that way.
But a hurricane like Dorian...
Rarely happens.


Half asleep this morning........
...it looked like those skate board ramps
 my son would build..
When he did Extreme Sports.
That's a sidewalk.
Look at the tree that did that.
Miraculously didn't fall on the homes..
...but fell the other way



I always say Raleigh doesn't handle hurricanes well.
Neither does Halifax and places in Canada.



Sunday Morning
Layers to the tragedy that Dorian wrought ...
From Bahamas to Nova Scotia.
Uprooting trees ....
destroying the fabric of society.
Killing so many we aren't sure of the death toll...
...doing environmental damage.


After a hurricane does this to an island.
It creates some other huge problems.


And long range models show there are more coming...
Hoping Dorian wasn't the warning shot for more.
I don't want to scare you but you'll see..
...some scary things down the road.
Talking models.


Vern does weather in Raleigh.
He does a good job. 
He's with Spectrum News.
Weather on the Ones
(the reason I have Spectrum... )
He obviously was watching the same models 
...we all saw last night.
GFS was a terrorizing Saturday Nite Date.. 
A date from hell.
DaBuh didn't like it either.


Not showing you what it did after this...
Mother Nature seems to wanna do it again.
But much worse in ways.
How you ask?

I don't hold from long range models.
I will say it shows trends that are dangerous.
The ocean is welcoming for a wave to develop.
Move west, intensify.
Once closer to our side of the world..
Goes crazy.
and with a huge high forecast to be to the North.
A heat wave possible as a summer Swan Song.
It's an inviting scenario for a landfall..

So do NOT eat your hurricane supplies.
Don't waste money.
Enjoy today.... be prepared for tomorrow.
Or more like it the week after.
This wave hasn't even really left Africa.
So get a grip if you see images online.
Take them with sea salt.
Find some Caramel Cashew Salted Ice Cream.
Make love.
Bake a cake.
Take a walk...
Sit and talk...
Enjoy the weekend.
Relax, breathe.
But don't let your guard down.
Because Mother Nature is a Bitch this year.
And 2019 Hurricane Season is a Mean One.
And it's not over til it's over.
And as Vern said it's not over til November 30th.
I'll add with a developing La Nina...
...expect the Season to be busy late.

Speaking of some historic hurricanes on today's date.
Galveston Hurricane.
Doesn't get meaner than that one.





Today in the Caribbean highlighted by NHC.
Interesting.
94L to the right.
Odd area close in center stage.
Gabrielle hard to see but there.
Dorian out of sight to the North.


As for models remember this...
Models didn't originally see Dorian (too small)
Models killed off Gabrielle...
...but she's back.
What else are models missing?
While they keep trying to repeat Dorian.
(further West...)

I don't hug models.
Hug a friend today instead!
Leaving you today with 3 things to think on...
But will add Bahamas need help.
Do you not have any compassion?
Can we talk politics in December?
Can we help someone now?
By October many of us here in the USA..
... may need help also.
What goes around comes around...
...as Dabuh likes to remind me.
As there are scenarios in the wind... 
... I don't want to talk about now.


3 things I want to talk about this weekend. Note I'll update throughout the weekend with updated graphics but leaving this post up as it covers my main concerns and things you should think on ... as always feel free to read slow or scan through looking for the music. Hope your weekend is good and if you were impacted by Dorian the clean up goes easier than you hoped. For those that weren't impacted, hold onto those hurricanes supplies there are more forming and there's something in the air this year so don't let your guard down. Thanks.

Doing this as a "to do list" so you see the thought process here.
Extra Credit is Invest 94L watching it with curiosity but leaving it on a shelf for now.
Humberto? Where's Humberto?
*Longer it takes to form the more of a problem it may be as it gets further West.
** Home Grown or Western Wave

1. Dorian now and then, still going strong causing destruction.
2. 1899 Hurricane Season .. Similar Hurricane.
3. Long range models that nailed close to landfall along SC then flipped on August 28th.
Extra Credit.. Where's Humberto?

1. Dorian is still on the map causing trouble, bringing dangers to people who live far to our North (unless of course you live in Nova Scotia



What's great about Cranky is he is a real meteorologist using his left brain to research the scientific process behind what IS going on (vs models that flip flop) and then he uses his right brain to create a way to communicate the dangers properly without hype. He communicates a message in a vivid, careful way. How we communicate a message and more so the reality that nothing is carved in stone because of this model run or that trend using models as a tool yet being able to evaluate the satellite loops, current patterns across the Northern Hemisphere then addressing how the hurricane fits into that pattern and how it may or may not evolve.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/072045.sh
tml

The NHC puts out discussion and Jack Beven always delivers a clean, good product. You can read below all about where Dorian ended up and how it's impacting it's current location and how we will not be issuing advisories on it anymore.


Good discussion and end to Dorian as a Hurricane though it still has hurricane force winds. The fast track after OBX verified and as we said early on when first discussing Dorian it made landfall in an area we knew it would even if we were not sure who it would impact along the way. The end game that was forecast early on verified. Impressive. Logical but still very impressive.


As for Dorian.. NHC mentions at 11 PM Sat Nite.

"DORIAN WREAKING HAVOC OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... ...HALF A MILLION CUSTOMERS WITH NO POWER."

Dorian's still topical and dangerous.
Why I updated on it first..

Canada has their own maps.
If you like to track a Cane to it's end game.
You may want to use their track maps.


https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/track_e.html

Dorian was a long tracker.
Not as long as another similar one I'll talk on soon.

Wild video came in today as Dorian is still wild.






Can you imagine if this had happened in Boston?
Or maybe Manhattan?
Big story. 
Dorian Drama continues.
Even if the crane didn't fall in America.


We tend to be a bit ethnocentric.
One of the first lessons I learned in AP History.
There is a wide world out there ...
..and we are all connected.
Being from Miami the Bahamas seems close to me.
You know across the Atlantic a Sea Plane ride away.
Even by plane it's 37 minutes away from Miami.



Part of my childhood.
Old pics of Miami here...


Bit of trivia here...
..aside from being a great location for Miami Vice.
#1 Make out spot for Miami Beach kids back then...



Then the planes arrived in the Bahamas.
Sort of Miami Beach's. Eastern suburb 
Then they land there.
I suppose kids would watch them land also.


Yes growing up in Miami Beach....
..we'd drive across the causeway..
Watching Chalk Sea Planes take off for Bahamas.
Bahamas are our closest neighbors.
Yet what are we doing today?
Talking on how to help and make a difference?
Bahamas today is a Paradise Lost.
Especially those islands destroyed by Dorian.

Bahamas need help.
I think we need help if we don't get that.
I know life goes on....
...but it's not going on well there.
Do we care?
Where are our priorities?


I always put up a link to the Red Cross.
I know they what they are ...
.... my brother volunteered for years.
You don't like the Red Cross?
Find your own charity.
There are many great charities.
Check them out carefully.
Donate... do what you can please.
That death toll is not a real figure...
.. people are missing and stories are terrible.



2. I show Hurricane History here often and hope you learn from it and enjoy it. If not just scroll down to a video or a song. I want people to see similar hurricanes and know nothing is really new under the sun. I've heard many asking questions about weather modification or if Florida has a shield up but in truth Hurricanes have been doing that dance towards Florida then being lifted by Cold Fronts way before we had television or the Internet. One such hurricane, also a very long tracker, came this close to slamming into South Florida and then turned away as if it changed it's mind. It did not cross 80 West, it slid North doing much damage to the Carolinas and the zoom, zoom, zooming away all the way back to the Azores.. and some historical accounts even say it hit France.


Compare with Dorian's track below so far.



Close up of that track.
1899 SAN CIRIACO HURRICANE
(doing this in parts)
Part 1


I'd love to say it might have been prayers that saved Florida.
But back then no one knew a hurricane was coming.
The damage it did in Puerto Rico was devastating.
Similar to what Maria did.. what Dorian did to GB.
Note they knew it was coming but just before.
And even then they had no idea how strong it was....

From Wikipedia below.
Donate to them once in a while too.
We all use them but do we give back?

"On August 7, after stations in the Lesser Antilles reported a change in wind from the northeast to the northwest, the United States Weather Bureau ordered hurricane signals at Roseau, Dominica, Basseterre, Saint Kitts, and San Juan, Puerto Rico; later, a hurricane signal was raised at Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Advisory messages were sent to other locations throughout the Caribbean, including Santo Domingo, Kingston, Jamaica, and Santiago de Cuba, Cuba. Information was also telegraphed to major seaports along the Gulf and East coasts of the United States. On August 9, hurricane signals were posted at Santiago de Cuba, while all vessels bound northward and eastward from Cuba were advised to remain in port.[6]" 

Part 2


Severe hurricanes didn't begin in the 21st Century.
This was 1899. 
A year before the 1900 Galveston hurricane.
Check out how strong it was for how long it was strong.
Crazy strong deadly hurricane.


Tracked right across PR.
Much as Hurricane Maria did recently.




 Many islands were devastated.
Preliminary reports of the death toll were wrong.


So next time you want to complain...
..the NHC got something wrong.
or models weren't perfect.
Imagine not having the NHC nor models..
Not being able to go online yourself and get info..
So yes a very similar hurricane happened.
It came this close to landfall in Florida...
...and smashed into North Carolina.
Iconic Hurricane tales...
Check it out.

https://www.carolinacountry.com/carolina-stories/remembering-the-san-ciriaco-hurricane-of-1899

Intermission here.
I wanted to show a great graphic.
It explains why and where the surge went.


Heard on the news just now...
They are searching in Ocracoke ...
Through debris for any bodies.
in North Carolina. 
It's way better than the Bahamas.
But Dorian did much damage.



3. Models. Love them or hate them we all watch them. We say we don't and then we peek. Some post every model online as if that model and the new forecast cone will be whole story. It's the wrong way to show them and it doesn't matter if the model is 3 days out or 10 days out we need to remember models change, the forecast cone changes and the headlines change touting a Florida Landfall or Orlando in the Cross Hairs or Savannah may get SMASHED by a Hurricane. And then the next day we hear it's going to North Carolina. People get tired and it's hard to learn how to sift through the constant barrage of models and updated cones and in this case the cone covered all of Florida for days and we were reminded that on the 5th day... there is a 200 mile difference on possible landfall (or some lingo like that..) and people only see what they want to see. If they live in Miami they see a Miami landfall, if they live Tampa they worry when models take it across Florida into the GOM and the cone shows Dorian hitting Orlando and if you have relatives in Cuba you worry that Cuba had wind probabilities and if you lived in Charleston you see Hugo and if you live on the Outer Banks you figure it's your hurricane eventually. 

Whew long run on sentence but that dance that goes on actually is way longer and more tiring than any run on sentence I can write.

And yet the funny part about models is that sometimes they nail landfall about a week before and then flip flop again and then move back to an earlier model run and then the hurricane shows up exactly where both the EURO and GFS BOTH had it days before. On August 28th I posted the fact that both models suddenly showed it hanging off the coast of South Carolina almost on the same day and in the same place. Really rare for models that far out. And then... the models flipped and showed a HUGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.. taking Dorian ACROSS Florida somewhere and everyone went crazy online how this could be like Katrina crossing Florida and headed towards New Orleans (maybe...) and for about 12 hours online there was New Orleans worst case scenario mania was the time of arrival of earliest winds showed winds arriving in Alabama and yes I get it ... Trump's no meteorologist but meteorologists online were offering solutions of how and why Dorian could and might get into the Gulf of Mexico.


People were all like
"WHAT???"
The graphic of earliest winds arrival time..
went form Cuba to Alabama to SC/NC line.
Georgia was included. 
If you extrapolate it...
...you see why people were screaming..
"NOLA KATRINA DORIAN"

I pointed out that I felt the ridge would have a weakness and if and where it did Dorian would find that ridge and do what it needed to do to survive. I just felt the ridge would have a weakness from staring for hours at the water vapor loop and knowing that fronts had been dipping down for weeks so why not then? But the model mania online went on and on and as Cranky says when the models flipped back all the chirping went quiet (he has a better way of saying it) and suddenly all eyes were on the Florida East Coast again as well as Savannah, Charleston and Wilmington. 

Images I put in my blog on 8/28
When 2 models hit the same spot.
So rare early on...


On Thursday September 5th from my blog.
There's Dorian in the exact spot...
...models showed it on August 28th.



Models using www.windy.com from 8/28 above.
September 5th Dorian hits that same spot.

The cone when I wrote a weakness would develop.
And Dorian would find it show below.


I have a nephew in Orlando.
I was a bit worried.
But watching water vapor loop...
... felt a weakness would open up.
And it would find it.
And South Florida was safe.
This was going up the coast.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2019/08/dorian-strengthening-bulking-up-pr-vi.html

August 28th.. 
I wrote this blog just after Dorian became a Hurricane.
Models did show 3 solutions.
Okay mostly 2 but check out Cuba.
Cuba remained in wind probs...
..way longer than Alabama..

Wind probs are a tool.
Models are a tool.
The Cone is guidance.
The cone changes in real time.


I said on August 28th...
I felt Dorian would find a weakness in the ridge.
At that point most people were not saying that.



See my words.
Note Jim was posting a video from St. Thomas.

So where does that leave us now?

Extra Credit for getting to the end of this long blog.


Invest 94L is orange at 40 % currently.
NHC has been lower it's expectations daily.
It is a low rider....
..meaning staying low isn't good.
It has the chance of getting into the Caribbean.
Threatening the Islands.
Possibly long term getting into the GOM.
Or Central America needs to watch it.
All systems that far out can..
... lift towards Florida.
So low is problematic.
Weak keeps it going West...
Stronger would be better actually.
As a stronger system can lift and go out to sea.
Long swimming fish for now.
Westbound.

As for sneaky Pete..
Okay it's not named Pete.
But if it was it would be Sneaky Pete....


This area now has higher chances....
...vs 94L that has lowered chances.
I said I wasn't sure which became Humberto....
... a few days ago that's why.
Things change.


Nuff said on Gabrielle.
Going to Ireland?
Interesting.

Currently in the tropics to watch...
This is the grid.
Do not count anything out.
Many options on the table.


Link:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=120hrs&anim=anigf

Remember what I said about Tricky?
DaBuh also watching it carefully.
Short term problem.
Does it steal the H name?
Or slip slide away.
Active area to watch this year.
Patterns.


As for long term problem.
NOTE HOW HE SAYS IT.
"THIS IS ONE 1 RUN"
Man I love that.
It's not carved in stone.
It's there, we watch and remember..
1 model run.. 
Lots of IFS


PATTERNS.
#HOMEGROWN
Keep watching.


And all those models are up at Spaghetti Models.
One stop shop for everything tropical you need!


Sweet Tropical Dreams
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Enjoy one of my favorite songs...
...and scenes.



You knew that was coming didn't ya?



I didn't know there was a phone booth there.
Logical. 
Maybe a prop for the scene.
I must have always been distracted... 

Ps I'm not planning on writing long on Sunday, unless something crazy happens as I am taking some time off to relax, enjoy Raleigh and give my very patient husband some time. I'll update at the top with any new information on Sunday regarding the current areas being watched and remember what I said about tricky areas closer in than a wave far away that has days to try and develop as models flip flop above.

Again
Check back often.
Updates will be at the top.
Leaving this post up as the Weekend Update.














posted by BobbiStorm @ 8:42 PM

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