11 PM HURRICANE DORIAN UPDATE. MODELS. TRACK. After Islands Dorian Approaching Florida. Virgin Islands In Crosshairs NOW. EAST COAST IN PLAY LATER. LABOR DAY MAJOR HURRICANE DORIAN.
You understand looking at this ...
Everything from Savannah to top of Key Largo...
IN the 5 Day Cone.
That's a wide cone.
Similar to previous cone.
Many questions for down the road.
Short term the cone is very narrow.
Radar presentation tonight good.
Better than the satellite image.
Important discussion to note.
Always good to read it carefully.
Subject to uncertainty.
Similar to previous cone.
People ask me always "WHEN?"
NHC has this graphic.
I have to admit it's a bit large.
Most people are asking me "WHAT?"
Again let me show you the NRL map.
Closer to that map.
Covering a lot of bases.
So that's it for the day.
Just too soon to say.
But landfall looks clear.
Where?
Can't say yet.
Review again what I wrote below please.
Thanks for your patience and feedback.
Sweet Tropical Dreams
BobbiStorm.
Ps... last model run below.
Newest set of models shown below.
And comparison of today's models below that.
Note this was for today Wednesday.
I asked if he would do it tomorrow.
He said he would.
Again everything changes often.
But good to see...
Here's a look at the latest models for #HurricaneDorian.— Bryan Bennett (@weatherbryan) August 29, 2019
The GFS (American model) has the farthest north landfall, near Daytona Beach. ICON (German model) as far south as Miami.
Trusty ECMWF & HWRF suggesting the Vero Beach proximity.
Stay tuned! pic.twitter.com/RzCOaTo2bA
Note Euro and crew come in later tonight.
Sat image of the area we be watching.
No real change at 8 PM.
New cone and forecast package at 11 PM.
Stay tuned.
Ps...current shear tendencies above.
East of Dorian.
Red No... Orange iffy.
Green GO
Great image posted by Cranky in his blog.
Watching Mike on Facebook Live tonight.
NRL map below.
Their grid based on the NHC grid is wider.
They have many interests to watch out for.
If they are watching out for theirs... you do the same.
Showing this image below that Josh put up of the eye of Dorian.
The eye of Dorian over the Virgin Islands.
Why?
It's a good image.
And because the Virgin Islands were not supposed to see the eye.
No eye was forecast to develop.
And TS Dorian was forecast to move far to the West of there.
36 hours earlier and then the forecast changed.
Dorian has been a tricky storm from the beginning.
So expect more tricks in the days ahead.
Here is an example of how the cone has changed so far.
The center of #Dorian has been consistently on the right side of the cone and we'll see if that plays out in future model runs and eventual landfall. Over the last 2 days, you can see that shift in the early period, but not as much at the end of the @NHC_Atlantic 4casts. pic.twitter.com/CODc1nisy9— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) August 28, 2019
The logic behind the cone from the NHC and the current forecast track for Dorian is shown below but remember it can change fast as the atmosphere is fluid and each movement it makes relies on some factor upstream or downstream and just as everyone expected it to hit Hispaniola and to have it possibly fall apart a bit it changed direction on a dime and sped off towards the Virgin Islands avoiding the tall mountains and intensifying over warm water while pummeling the Virgin Islands ... video below from a sailboat in the middle of Hurricane Dorian ...turn the volume up.
There is a cold front moving down across the East side of the country with dry, high pressure moving in behind it. Another one reinforces that behind it and in theory this produces a strong high pressure ridge that blocks Dorian from moving North. Why is that important? Because hurricanes want to go towards the poles, they are energy transfer machines basically. And a stronger hurricane feels a stronger urge to go North. A high pressure ridge can and will block it from doing so. It is worth mentioning here that a Major Hurricane can sometimes make it's own weather and continue heading into high pressure whereas a Category 1 or 2 would be blocked. If you play Chess you understand this... if not trust me. A Major Hurricane will fight to pull North to the left...and often a hurricane is forecast to go WNW and yet it pulls NW. Sometimes a ridge builds in as it did with Andrew and Andrew turned West. Every hurricane is different and unique I can't say it enough. And in this case the atmosphere to the East is Florida is wet, moist and juicy as the remnants of Erin are floating down the coast and and it makes a bad situation worse as low pressure likes to go towards low pressure and stays away from high pressure.
Between the recon and jets flying into Dorian and around Dorian sampling the wind and atmosphere and all the different NWS offices along the coast sampling the air by the coast the next few model runs should be more accurate and in real time we will see what Dorian does after it leaves the Caribbean behind and moves up along the Bahamas. The NHC is doing their job, you have to do your job and that is monitor the movement, intensity, size and forward speed of the storm and listen to your local authorities. We will know more tomorrow and even more the day after tomorrow and that's true.
So now there are many questions I know.
What do you do?
Breaking this down in parts.
1. If you live in South Florida you should be carefully monitoring any changes in track or development (intensity, size, forward motion) of Dorian and begin preparing for what you would do should the cone be nudged further to the South and look as if it may come to parts of South Florida. I'm not saying that will happen but it could happen though at this point it is less likely. You should already have batteries and water so stock up if you haven't done so on medication, diapers, pet food and anything you need in case power is out or it takes a long time to rebuild. Hopefully that doesn't happen but living in paradise comes with a price tag and that price tag may be extra snacks, food and supplies to get through power being out or being out of work for several days at best.
2. If you live in Central Florida and let's make that wide so let's say anything North of WPB up to Daytona including the Lake inland and Tampa on the West Coast. Also know that if a Major Hurricane would cross that Lake there would be waves and storm surge there and inland flooding can happen in some places so follow your local sources. Do not rely on the fact that almost no major hurricane has done that and they always curve away as each hurricane is it's own beast with it's own unique steering currents. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. The 1928 hurricane came in around WPB and headed straight for the Lake, it can happen.
3. If you live in North Florida being North of Daytona across the Panhandle watch it more carefully than say Miami as it's always worse to be NW of a Major Hurricane than on the SW side of it at it's approach as hurricanes always try to go poleward (North) and if there is ANY weakness in the ridge Dorian will find that weakness and bust through the same way it changed course from the Mona Passage and headed NW towards the weakness in the dry air and ridge and busted through while becoming a hurricane in the process. It may rarely happen but it could happen as Dora proved in the past.
Georgia and the Carolinas watch Dorian carefully as you know this dance and this drill better than most, what begins in Florida doesn't always stay in Florida and the end game is a crap shoot as just six hours ago both the EURO and the GFS showed impact in Charleston after Florida and now that's off the table. It can easily be back on the table to morrow.
Video from Shaun Kadison on her boat on St. Thomas, near Charlotte Amalie during the #Dorian northern eyewall pic.twitter.com/n3pdMDeB0P— Jim Edds (@ExtremeStorms) August 28, 2019
Hope you turned your sound up.....
...that's the sounds of a Hurricane.
Just want to remind people reading today how fast things change.
Virgin Islands were supposed to be far to the East yesterday morning.
Things in the tropics change fast.
They can be very fluid.
2 days ago they felt safer because Mona Passage.
But that changed fast.
So keep that in mind while seeing models.
And watching the NHC Cone.
Good wide loop showing Hurricane Dorian forming.
Moved fast to the N though officially NW
Long loop.
Let's you see how Hurricane Dorian came to be.
Pressure dropping....
Note small storm still.
BUT... once in Bahamas will grow in size.
Nowhere near the Mona Passage.
I only repeat this as when looking at models.
And watching shifts in the NHC Cone.
Know there can be a wide margin of error often.
So do what you can in case it hits you ....
...the way it hit the Virgin Islands.
After all the talk on Hispaniola.
Also showing oddly despite different solutions...
...over Florida or near Florida.
Euro and GFS AGREE on it impacting SC.
Go figure.
How it gets there is extremely different route.
About a day apart.
But the drama goes on and on.
Dorian Drama.
And models change often.
Where we are now.
Oh and that happened.
Finally.
As models can make you nuts.....
...good to listen to experts.
A very good video from my friend.
He's good.
Listen to him if you have the time.
It's 20 minutes.
Explains variables and what has happened.
How we got here....
...where we are going.
Note discussion above.
Once Dorian reaches favorable environment.
Expected to intensify to Cat 3 Major Hurricane.
Then below is the next part.
Labor Day Hurricane Forecast Headed to Florida Beaches.
Asking you not to lock in on any one place now tho.
Remember yesterday morning NHC had Dorian in Mona Passage.
Now 1 day later it's EAST of PR in Virgin Islands.
Keep that in mind.
Everyone should prepare according to your needs now.
Could it slip up the coast?
Yes.
For those who follow on Twitter you will know I've said it could turn sharper in the short term to the right (meaning more NW to NNW) and then later turn sharper back to the West to WNW. It's been a concern I mentioned. It either gets to where the ridge is in time to be blocked and pushed towards Florida and if so ...really ...where exactly? Too soon to be sure. Or it finds a weakness and crawls up the coast looking for a weakness and so far Dorian has been excellent in finding a weakness in a ridge as it did yesterday. So prepare, don't panic... calm down and think on "what if" and do what you need but some beach city is going to get slammed on Labor Day Weekend and that's a big, HUGE hit for beach towns that rely on Labor Day Weekend revenue $$$ to get them through the winter when the tourists go back home. It's a huge financial loss for a good part of the SE Coast as trust me people are changing their plans now... as soon as they hear "MAJOR HURRICANE" even if not sure where they are NOT going to Florida or Georgia and up in the Carolinas they are watching very carefully.
And all the cities in between have wind probs.
Read the fine print to understand how to use this great link.
From the NHC.
Wind Probs at 11 AM.
From the Florida Keys to Carolinas.
Just showing top and bottom of them.
And note Tampa has wind probs.
Does it head into Florida and cross into the GOM?
Or head towards Florida Matthew like...
...then coast up the coast?
I95?
Note wind forecasts show Cat 3 in 96 Hours.
Brad Panovich is in Charlotte NC.
They are watching carefully.
People from Charleston evacuate there.
Huge went inland all the way to Charlotte.
Note Charlotte is just outside the NRL map grid.
Please keep reading if you have not already.
And remember.
How far the front dips.
How fast it goes.
Where the high pressure ridge sets up.
If there are any weaknesses in that ridge.
Will all tell the end game.
So watch the progression of those features.
www.spaghettimodels.com has so much info.
Don't just stare at Dorian.
Watch upstream and when you look at the models.
As the song at the end explains.
You need to calm down......
Dorian down in the Islands now.
Lifting kind of rapidly.
When watching that remember....
...yesterday morning Mona Passage track.
VI went from no watch to warnings in 1 day.
Things change so remember that watching models.
And from advisory cone to advisory cone.
It's your job to stay informed on the storm.
Nice loop shows different views of Dorian.
Note here that Dorian is right sided.
Good so far for PR.
Also each new frame an eye like feature.
Tries to pop out on different loops.
High cloud tops.
Intensifying over water (not mtns)
Close up above.
Wide view below.
Good tweet showing how Dorian is doing
The western cloud shield of Tropical Storm #Dorian is now pushing across eastern Puerto Rico. Dorian looks healthy on satellite imagery. PR is forecast to experience 'Tropical Storm' force winds this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/iYcuOqh4v5— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) August 28, 2019
Also newest models coming in.
12Z intensity models mostly agree on a Category 2/3 hurricane in 3-5 days. #Dorian pic.twitter.com/5Y3KtmvwTw— Hurricane Tracker App (@hurrtrackerapp) August 28, 2019
An image to think on......
Looks like it wants to be a Cane sooner rather than later.
Waiting on an eye to pop out on loop above.
He's great to follow.
We busy yet?
And there will be more behind Dorian and Erin.
2 waves rolling off the coast being developed by models.
Warning.
Long detailed blog today.
Dorian getting difficult ....
Stronger. Going Hurricane sooner rather than later.
Short term issues in the Caribbean.
Then up in Bahamas.
What happens with the front?
Does the High build in?
Does Dorian go to Florida?
Or ...up the coast...
So read carefully.
Scroll fast and look at pictures.
Or go straight to the song before you look at models.
8AM.
Words matter.
NHC says... "nearing Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico"
They mention VI before PR.
Think about it.
Basically trying to slip between the two.
Remember this...
Dorian is consistent and sneaky!
3 things to note here.
1. Dorian in the Caribbean.
Trying to get out of the Caribbean.
2. Erin in the Atlantic to it's NNW
3. Watch the weather over the SE...
...and the front that is going to dip down later.
Facts below.
Please stick with the current facts.
Stay focused.
Note the end discussion from the NHC
They forecast a hurricane.
Currently going with 100 MPH.
That may change on next few forecasts.
Remember the NHC stays conservative.
Lord knows that's good.
Because everyone online is going wild.
One person says it's gonna be a Cat 4.
Another says ... nah, it's gonna fall apart.
Somewhere in between is the truth.
NHC stays conservative changing in real time.
Every six hours is the new forecast package.
Yes... Labor Day Weekend Storm.
2019 your classic old time hurricane season.
And we may get that coastal cruiser I've worried on.
Directing you to one of the best products NHC puts out.
Please use it. Pretend it's a video game.
If you can play a video game you can use it.
Current track over Puerto Rico.
Any variance to the right is good for PR.
A track more over water is bad up the road.
Note this is what I said yesterday.
Started writing this about 2 PM.
Way before NHC changed the track.
"NO ONE has really said it could go East of PR"
It was becoming evident Dorian is in charge.
Dorian is finding ways to survive.
More on that later.
You can manipulate that track yourself.
You can click anywhere down to street level.
Hey it doesn't get better than that.
The 5 Day Cone is a good Press Release product.
You're on my blog you obviously want more.
That is the product to give it to you.
Use it please.
What about Florida?
Same product...
You can click in and zoom in ....
I know you know how. Do it.
Remember the track changes often.
Up to 200 miles variance on the 5th Day of the Cone.
North of Miami and WPB.
North of the Cape ...
This will change next run.
Every small change extrapolated over time is huge.
Up to 200 miles on the 5 day cone.
Now the product that shows you WHEN to expect WINDS
Note Saturday 8 PM
Bottom of that cone down in Florida Straits touching Cuba.
The top part reaching up towards Wilmington NC
Difficult forecast for NHC.
Great visual below.
Dorian and Erin.
Blend the two OBX gets wind.
Turn sharper to the left and Florida.
South Carolina in it.
Remember I've talked on a coastal cruiser coming.
Is it this one or the next one?
There will be more.
Okay let's look at models.
Now you see the spread.
I never chase after a bus ... a guy ...or models ;)
Joking really but last night everyone was nuts.
OH MY GOD LOOK AT THE GFS
NOOOO LOOK AT THE EURO
BUT THE ICON...
IS that the Japanese Model?
What about NAVGEM????
Everyone needs to breathe.
Models swing wildly especially with a developing system.
It's late August. Fronts on the map but... how strong.
Erin is an annoying player.
I Tweeted this earlier
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
I'm on Twitter ALL day.
You can find me there updating live.
1. That's our front... see the dip. Trust me you will.
2. Cranky's Cinnamon Roll cranking the game.
3. Erin and it's adjacent moisture calling to Dorian.
4. Dorian going where it needs to survive and thrive.
Dorian has always done that.
Dorian will continue to do that.
Hurricanes are Lows.
Lows move towards Lows.
Lows try to avoid Highs.
So with that said what's with the models.
Note models keep trying to break WEST.... then hook up again.
Note some break North like ..
"I wanna be a North Carolina storm!!"
Many still crash it into N FL.
Cape to JAX
Watch the trend on the next model run.
Keeping this in mind but not going there yet.
Could happen.
He's so smart.
Genius with everything he does.
Learned much from him.........
The pattern has called for a coastal cruiser.
I've pointed that out to long time readers.
I'll do it again soon.
Bottom Line today.
Bottom Line NOW.
PR and VI are dealing directly now with Dorian.
Again let's look at what people thought yesterday AM.
Remember that one above.
24 hours ago.
Now........
Uh OH!
Hmnnnn
24 hours it went from Mona Passage Cruise.
To Virgin Islands Passage.
That's not a 5th Day difference.
That was on the 1st day.
Yes I wrote that could happen in the afternoon.
"AVOIDS DISRUPTION FURTHER WEST"
My concern was that would give Dorian room to breathe.
And Dorian is breathing.
Yesterday and Today below.
Dorian Selfies.
So now Bottom Line AFTER Today.
You see the front coming down.
Then a high builds in.............
But how strong is the high.
Scenario 1...
High builds in and blocks Dorian.
Dorian slows down.
Maybe stalls or crawls or loops a bit.
Or Dorian curves into Central/N FL.
That could happen.
Often models flip back to an older scenario.
Note from last night.
That line was drawn late last night by Dabuh.
Let's look at the whole tweet.
2 tweets actually.
I blew it up from the image above.
During talking on Twitter.
Another thought of his below.
Dabuh is in Jax.
He knows weather.
He knows surfing.
He knows music.
So UH OH.......
High builds in and Dorian heads to Florida.
After that is another question?
Slips up the coast...
A blend of Dora and Matthew ?
That's up the road.
Where is Dorian now?
Looking good!
Healthy and consolidating.
I see an eye trying to pop out.
Go back to the visible.
That is where a hot tower is building.
Exploding.
In a quiet methodical Dorian way.
Leaving you with this thought.
There are some tricky things coming up.
An ULL is forming from the tail end of Erin.
Where it sets up and how strong it is counts.
ULLs can ventilate (help) developing Hurricanes.
How strong the front is... does it dip and move.
Or dip and lose it's energy.
For now the whole coast of the East Coast...
NEEDS TO WATCH DORIAN
And when I say WATCH I mean "watch"
Do NOT Panic.
Do not freak out.
Everyone sees it coming to them.
I travel often.
When in Savannah I see the 1893 hurricane.
That was an up and over the islands like Florence.
Dora 1964 also up and over.
Sometimes pattern repeat.
Other times they do with a variance.
Hugo 1989... scary similarity.
But Hugo was always stronger.
Main difference.
And it was a September storm.
This is still August.
Fronts are weaker....
Coastal Cruisers.
In Raleigh I see Hazel and Fran and others.
The girls of 54...
...followed by the girls of 55.
IF YOU LIVE........
ANYWHERE ALONG I95
Watch Dorian.
Watch the changes in track.
Read the discussion from NHC.
Prepare for this and the rest of the 2019 Season.
But most of all....
You need to calm down.
Because between here and where it's going.
There's going to be much weather drama.
Don't evacuate from Daytona and Jax up to Carolinas.
Learn whether you NEED to evacuate.
If you got the money and time go for it.
Could it veer away from FL and clip OBX...
Yes.
It could. Doubtful now but it could.
Could it impact Mid Atlantic to Boston.
Well Boston is close to moisture from Erin now.
So leaving you with the great Canadian Map.
But first the NRL (NAVY) Maps.
Great detail.
Canadian. Great details.
NRL for ERIN
Erin... close to Boston but off shore.
Moving towards Canadian places.
And when it was an Invest I said that might happen.
And Dorian.....
Canceling Labor Day plans for the SE Coast.
Let the NHC and the experts worry on the models.
Breathe.
Check back here often and www.spaghettimodels.com
If you listen to Mike (and who doesn't?)
He'll go live on Facebook around 9:20 AM.
You need to calm down.
Watch. Plan. Prepare.
We are far from knowing for sure...
...where "there" is as in end game Landfall.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps...if you live in Florida up up I95 to Long Island.
You need to calm down.
Avoid chasing models for 24 hours.
Let's see what Dorian looks like after PR and VI.
Once up in the Bahamas. Turks...
Labels: bahamas, Carolinas, dorian, Erin, Florida, Georgia, History, Hurricane. Maps, I95, Midatlantic. Eastcoast, music, NC, PR, Puertorico, SC, Storm, tropical, tropics, VI, VirginIslands
posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:42 AM
3 Comments:
Is there any scenario that has Dorian stalling and becoming a major rain even in the low country of South Carolina? It's moving at 13 miles per hour which is quite fast and would not dump all that much rain on us. Your observations and comments, please!
Regurgitation of levi's work.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJFgRuMvCGM
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