TS Dorian, Invest 90L AKA GOM BLOB and Where oh Where is Invest 98L and When Does It Become Erin? Hmnn?
Let's start off with Tropical Storm Dorian.
It was obvious yesterday morning it was a TD at least.
Took 24 hours or so for the NHC to upgrade it....
..as it had been previously ignored by many.
If you scroll back through my blogs I pointed it out.
Pointed out that the GFS saw it and loved it.
The Euro saw nothing.
Probably because it is a small system.
Big boy models like the EURO...
...are historically bad at small core systems developing.
The problem with small core systems is...
...they are small core.
And small cores can ramp up fast to hurricane.
Somewhere in the track when conditions are better.
The reality is it's here and that's where we need to start.
Note the wideness of the cone on the 5 day.
If Dorian is down deep in the Caribbean vs...
...up near Puerto Rico..
It will make all the difference where it goes after that.
Some see a track up to where 98L has been hanging out.
Others see it getting into the GOM down the road.
Nothing wakes up people than seeing an Atlantic Storm.
A real one out in the Atlantic going W or WNW.
The NHC jiggled the cone a bit as per models.
It's in the discussion.
They may have to correct that or adjust it or it was good.
Learn to read discussion.
It's good to read discussion because...
...it shows you all the drama and innuendo.
Time always tells.
Here's a visual to remember for the rest of this blog.
The one system that screams it's name is Dorian.
Other wise looks like a necklace like frontal boundary.
Draped across the neck of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.
And a big colorful Blob know designated Invest 90L in GOM
And somewhere in there Erin is hiding... now known as 98L
So let's look at 98L
The storm that was supposed to be....
...and most likely will be eventually.
But personally I think it was handled badly.
Sorry but true.
I'll show Earthnull and explain why later.
It is still forecast to develop and I believe it will.
Where and when is the question.
We are still waiting.
To be honest the starting point on their X is where it should be.
The truth is it's a messy set up with multiple areas of swirl.
And the strongest area of swirl is OVER Florida.
Many models insisted that would happen....
...but they were discounted.
I think Mike called them drunk today...
...but I was offline and catching up.
And oh look they made a yellow circle.
Why?
Because why not?
I'm just telling it like it is...
...it's always had more rain than 98L
But models........ didn't like it.
Actually models love it as a rainmaker.
It's also officially Invest 90L
Suppose it allowed them to run models.
It's close to land.
You can see the rain above...
..and satellite image below.
Models
I suppose it's rain follows 98L
Speaking of 98L most likely going to be Erin.
Models below show a developed storm at some point.
You know the drill...
...by the time it's East of Jax it forms.
What Jax has that Miami doesn't I don't know...
...well has Dabuh and hanging moss so that's nice.
Bear with me...
Models aren't exactly screaming hurricane.
But decent Tropical Storm
Every time I think of Invest 98L I think of that song.
Where oh where did my baby go...
Really sad lyrics all in all when you focus on them.
But as always there is always tomorrow.
Eventually the models and 98L will come together.
More on that and Earthnull soon.
Busy night in the tropics...
...thanks for your patience.
So let's go to Earthnull.
As it really shows the story if not the details.
It's always good to start at the beginning.
The whole wide world view.
If you ignore the big storm in the N Atlantic ;)
You can see there is a small tropical storm.
And you don't see anything over Florida.
We are talking winds not rain.
Up close there is Dorian.
Small core, solidly put together.
Looks lower than they have it but...
The track from NHC should verify in the short term.
Despite dry air it found a way to develop.
Small storms are better at that than large waves.
Dorian is forecast to be a hurricane.
Below we have Invest 98L
There's wiggly lines there...
Closer up you can see that it's over S FL
Many models forecast that....
There's kind of a bend in the winds...
... but nothing to write home about.
When......the "center" moves further N...
...Out over the water again.
It should form.
I'm expecting it to....
smiling.
Somewhere between the Carolinas and Jax...
We should see Erin develop.
A wide look in motion of all the systems.
In truth Invest 98L looks as if it's part of a trof.
It's a very good place to start.
Looking around the web fast....
Tomorrow morning's blog will be short.
The evening update will be longer.
Sorry but that's just the way it goes ...
Dabuh is great with pictures.
And he puts the head on the donkey on where...
...we will see Erin show up.
Unless it does Orlando but not going there.
Let's stick with the game plane.
Listening to music.
This is annoying.
I really think this computer is possessed sometimes.
How do you get from Be Bop or whatever that was...
....to Jim Croce songs that eat at my heart?
Isn't that the way they say it goes?
I once loved two boys (okay talking about one time loving two boys vs obviously other times) and it went the way it went and I ended up in LA not with my best friend Ray but the song bugged the hell out of me. But isn't that the way the story goes. Actually there really was another guy I loved a lot but I was young and stupid and didn't realize the fact that he annoyed the hell out of me meant I really did love him. That's another song but we are staying with this one not Ghost Story boy so ........... everyone loved the BLOB. There were more questions on THE BLOB IN THE GOM on Mike's morning Facebook Lives than there were on Invest 98L or my wave getting no attention out in the Atlantic. The NHC refused to deal with it until it was just offshore around where they upgrade Barry to hurricane status and suddenly went with an Invest and starting showing real models. Isn't that the way it always goes? They are the bottom line, they get to make that call and sometimes they get it a bit wrong and more often they get it rights so that saying I hate is so true IT IS WHAT IT IS... and it is currently Invest 90L as we are starting over with the 90s again. Nuff said on that.
As for Tropical Storm Dorian.
Should it manage to survive and thrive.
It could become our Labor Day Hurricane.
Or other things could pop up.
But for now it bears watching.
This storm could be a problem.
Might hit Greater Antilles...
..that would be a problem for the storm.
It could stay South of there or North of there.
Up over the islands or slam right through them.
Again it's a SMALL storm so it could miss PR.
We can pray. Prayer is good.
If you don't like to pray "think good thoughts"
Note there are some models that go a bit further.
We can talk on them tomorrow.
As for the GOM BLOB.
It is going to be a lot of rain.
Whether it's a named storm or heavy rain.
It's the same bottom line.
I was listening to ThorNews the other day.
He's fun and he's actually very good with meteorology.
Astrology and other topics too...
but hey we all do what we do
And he does what he does well.
He made some comment on GOM
There's going to be a whole lot of rain.
There was flooding today in some areas further N.
Then this rain funnels into that area.
Catches a ride to the coast possibly?
A big mess.
Check him out
As for me...
I have to try on a new dress.
And clean up my mess.
Saturdays give me lots of time to relax.
Then I have to clean up from the relaxing.
It clears my head from having to do anything.
It rained all day.
The air cooled off enough that I'd say ..
"a taste of Autumn" but seems Cranky hates that.
My bottom line is something Cranky said I believe, but not sure because I read a lot rapidly while looping. We all get to that point where it seems hurricanes will never form and nothing is going to be a real Tropical Storm and then suddenly .... there's Tropical Storm Dorian. And as always fronts show up around the same time that the flip is switched and the tropics get busy. Maybe it's the fronts that flip the switch think on that a bit. But the "taste of Autumn" here on my balcony this afternoon was delicious because it shows you that Autumn IS coming eventually and though it will warm up fast it's a taste, it's a tease.... it's natures way of saying "just wait for it" and you smile and grin and know there is some end in sight for a long, crazy, hot, summer with endless thunderstorms and hot muggy nights.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter on Instagram for up to the minute updates
Ps...so we went from nothing in less than 5 days to a Tropical Storm forecast to be a hurricane and 2 Invests as Chantal sailed away into the North Atlantic. So much for a dead season and ... the possibility of a Labor Day Tropical Concern...
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:37 PM
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