NOAA Officially Prepares for an Above Average Hurricane Season... El Nino Dead... Prepare Now While You Can ...
#1 Fact today. Nothing expected to form for five days.
Note the TOP of the NHC page has news.
As in articles you should read.
The link is below to this article upping their numbers.
Yes, the NHC NOAA now believes it will be a busy season.
As I have said over and over ...
...don't judge September and October by July and August.
It's a process to prepare the Atlantic Basin for hurricanes.
Dry air is there then it is now.
Cool water temperatures warm up.
El Nino is officially dead.
Fronts are still moving South that's a concern.
Close in development breeds landfalls.
The processes that go on now.....
...simply prepare the ocean for later.
Think of it as prepping a good steak for the grill.
NOAA 10 - 17 named storms.
Hurricanes 5 - 9
Major Hurricanes 2 -4
Why the NHC uses Grayscale in graphics is beyond me.
But they do so it is what it is...
Check out the link I provided.
Or go to the link at the top of their page.
Another graphic.
Note the right side of the graphic.
Well unless you like Key Lime Pie..
The bottom line is on the right.
That's a wide range as for named storms but it's NOAA.
You want tighter predictions go elsewhere.
But does it really matter?
TD3 was a statistic.
If you get lots of TD3 storms the number is 17.
Barry was a hurricane for 3 hours.
If we get more Barry Hurricanes it could be 9.
Talking their numbers not mine.
The names for 2019...
... with 2 checked off already.
The bottom line is El Nino is less a factor.
In my opinion fronts being an issue is a problem.
Development closer in favors landfall.
We have been raised in many places to look towards the coast of Africa for those huge hurricanes that seem to form as they roll off and draw a bead on some small beach town on the East Coast and we then go on to immortalize these deadly killers and study them in hurricane history. But, the truth about those African formed tropical waves that become Killer Hurricanes is way more become Fish Storms we never read about and the name lives for another season. They are fun to track as they move across the planet in one mass filled with banding and an awesome eye and photographically beautiful and sometimes sadly deadly, but many just curve up into the Atlantic and go out to sea.
ON the contrary.... many storms that form close in are our most deadly, memorable hurricanes. From Andrew to Camille to Katrina and those Labor Day Hurricanes that had no name other than a time mark of when they happened formed close in and intensified rapidly under excellent hurricane conditions. So keep that in mind please!
Tropics today?
Nothing really going on.
Waves wander West.
Movement across the nation goes East...
It goes Southeast.
At some point the waves will form into hurricanes.
Hurricanes will move towards those Low Pressure systems.
They will move away and around High Pressure.
It's an atmospheric ballet that is as old as time.
NOAA has come around the the main thinking by many tropical meteorologists have been saying that El Nino is gone and they upped the predictions for this coming hurricane season. Back in May I said El Nino would be on the wane and we would be moving into a more neutral season or what I refer to as a normal, busy hurricane season. And, I'll remind you what I said back in May and that is spend less time reading articles about what kind of hurricane season it will be and prepare your home and family for possible hurricane landfalls.
3 Graphics from a previous post in May.
Old graphics below.
But relevant.
Remember Disturbance #1 off SE Coast?
Know models are showing another low there in a week or so.
Something to watch as we prepare for hurricane season.
My thoughts on the season.
In May same numbers NOAA shows now.
Links to prepare.
News articles are good but....
...use this time wisely and prepare.
Read the article.
Prepare.
Articles change often.
The threat of a busy season remains.
It only takes one.
Use your time wisely.
Prepare, make a plan.
And as for long trackers like Donna.
The 1938 New England/Long Island hurricane...
..was a CV Hurricane.
So yeah that track can happen also.
In the end it doesn't matter where the storm forms.
It matters where it makes ends up.
So now NOAA the official bottom line has chimed in.
An above average hurricane season is predicted.
Hurricane Season can go well into October.
Sometimes November.
Yes it begins on June 1st....
...it's more a concern and an unknown when it ends!
My bottom line.
Until Atlantic Hurricanes begin to form.
Always watch the tail end of fronts.
Watch close in for possible development.
Nothing big expected but tropical weather close in.
Then things change...
When they change they change fast.
So prepare now please.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistom on Twitter and Instagram
For up to date real time information follow me there.
Ps... Why do I bug you nonstop to stock up when things are cheap?
Cheap and available?
Because they are gone fast when there IS a hurricane coming.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:59 AM
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