Tropics Quiet. 96L Given a Chance. 10% on Sunday Morning. 95L Raining Itself Out Over the SE. Today the High is In Change. In 3 Weeks That Could Change. Why Kelvin Waves Don't Always Have Super Powers. Shootings and Imagine A World Without Them.

If I was in a cute mood I'd sing...

Is that all there is?

But I put my thoughts at the end in music.

So you can scroll down but read first please.

NHC lowered the flag to yellow.

10% chance.

Leaving open a slim doorway it could squeeze thru.

Doubtful tho looks better today than it has for days.

Remnants of 95L off E Coast.

Small S structure 96L always had bottom right.

Now it wants to twist and shout?

Go figure. 

Let's look at the wider picture.

Why?

I want to see what steals your attention.

Yes the huge frontal boundary.

In August there's a huge frontal boundary.

A dark strong high and waves westbound.

Note how low the next set of waves are.

I want to say one thing about the state of the tropics on August 4th and that is it will change in about three weeks time as slowly changes take place. The high may do some odd kinky things and the fronts will become a perpetual issue as waves become not Invests but Tropical Storms and Hurricanes as we move out of summer towards September. Also as always watch old fronts that lie dead in the water for possible development close in throughout August. Also watch the Yucatan as we move deeper into the season and we see how far South these constant frontal boundaries get later in the season. There is real potential for trouble this year and as it's a fairly normal year the first real named storms to worry on will form towards the end of August. As always things pop up early on weaker but often indicators of where to watch come September.

As Mike says... 95L remnants out there.

Remnants and nothing more.

With respect to 95L ...

It is worth noting it danced with the front yesterday.

Whichever model predicted concentrated rain...

...got it right.

But it was not a tropical storm or hurricane.

And please remember models still like 96L

Some models do.

As it didn't develop they take it West.

Weak waves wander West.

Always remember that.

So could it flare up somewhere else?

I'll leave the chance there...

A brief discussion this morning on the tropics as obviously many other things are on my mind this morning when we wake up to the news of the shooting in Dayton last night after I finally fell asleep after watching coverage of the El Paso shooting and more so there is nothing going on in the tropics.  Why is basically a mathematical equation easier to solve than why we have to wake up to such sad news on top of sad news from yesterday.

Strong Shear + Dry Air Kills Strong Waves.
2 is stronger than 1.

Also add in climo and we normally expect the Atlantic to wake up sometime between August 15th and August 26th in any given year no matter how beautiful the waves look or how much hype there is online or how many Invests the NHC is watching.

Understand for years we watched Invests they did not make it to prime time, we talked about them on message boards or in chat rooms or on phone calls late into the night discussing what if might happen or not happen. Then Invests went public and were raised to a higher status and every news media covers them as potential hurricanes when they are just areas of disturbed weather in the tropics with some model support and possibilities down the road.

Yes the MJO is on it's way and yes the Kelvin Wave is waving yet nothing developed. Think of this as being a fantastic possible boyfriend or husband but they don't leave the house and are afraid to meet someone they have been talking to online. They are cute, smart, funny, reliable but they are never going to meet the love of their life or even a best friend if they don't get up, go out and meet the different people they have been talking to and all they can end up doing is asking why so much potential gets lost and ends up like road kill on a hot summer day. Sorry for the inferences but I'm in a mood and pretty sure most of us are this morning.

The MJO and the Kelvin Wave are interesting theories but they only work if there is a well built tropical wave that has a defined center moving Westbound and there is no high as dry as Death Valley out there sucking all the energy out of the once beautiful tropical wave.

And we have to ask what is wrong with models. Yes, models start with an assumption something is there often and other models show where there may be moisture. I'm not in love with models but I do love to watch them wondering which may have been right. It's pretty clear that the Euro as usual beat the GFS on 95L and 96L so it seems the GFS just needs to be dismantled and totally rebuilt or do we give up? The ICON is getting attention of late. What is wrong with America that we can't build a reliable long term model for the tropics? Just throwing it out there. If my brother in Greece reads this he will know what I mean.

Because Twitter is broken since it's update...

...and it messes up our posting images :(

I'll post both so you can see them.

GFS Fail.

EURO Wins.

The EURO originally accurately predicated nothing.

A few stray model runs that excited the NHC

But basically GFS screaming hurricane was wrong.

We figured but good to see consistency.

Consistency from the Euro model.

Leaving you with this loop below.

Will 96L come back to life eventually?

Maybe but not holding my breath.

What will winter bring?

(I didn't say that...okay yes I did)

La Nina is coming I do believe.

Time will tell.

We should have a problematic hurricane season.

Come Fall... when hurricanes develop.

And play chicken with approaching fronts.

Stay Tuned.

Have a good safe weekend.

I'll update Monday Morning.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbstorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... if you want to stay inside this weekend.

The movie Yesterday is cute.

Makes you think.

Kind of a fantasy.

Worth watching... 

Imagine a world with no guns, no bombs.

No anger, no hatred.

Just imagine.

With prayers for the people of Texas.

For the people of Ohio

For America and the World.