Tropics Quiet. 96L Given a Chance. 10% on Sunday Morning. 95L Raining Itself Out Over the SE. Today the High is In Change. In 3 Weeks That Could Change. Why Kelvin Waves Don't Always Have Super Powers. Shootings and Imagine A World Without Them.

If I was in a cute mood I'd sing...

Is that all there is?

But I put my thoughts at the end in music.

So you can scroll down but read first please.

NHC lowered the flag to yellow.

10% chance.

Leaving open a slim doorway it could squeeze thru.

Doubtful tho looks better today than it has for days.

Remnants of 95L off E Coast.

Small S structure 96L always had bottom right.

Now it wants to twist and shout?

Go figure. 

Let's look at the wider picture.

Why?

I want to see what steals your attention.

Yes the huge frontal boundary.

In August there's a huge frontal boundary.

A dark strong high and waves westbound.

Note how low the next set of waves are.

I want to say one thing about the state of the tropics on August 4th and that is it will change in about three weeks time as slowly changes take place. The high may do some odd kinky things and the fronts will become a perpetual issue as waves become not Invests but Tropical Storms and Hurricanes as we move out of summer towards September. Also as always watch old fronts that lie dead in the water for possible development close in throughout August. Also watch the Yucatan as we move deeper into the season and we see how far South these constant frontal boundaries get later in the season. There is real potential for trouble this year and as it's a fairly normal year the first real named storms to worry on will form towards the end of August. As always things pop up early on weaker but often indicators of where to watch come September.

As Mike says... 95L remnants out there.

Remnants and nothing more.

With respect to 95L ...

It is worth noting it danced with the front yesterday.

Whichever model predicted concentrated rain...

...got it right.

But it was not a tropical storm or hurricane.

And please remember models still like 96L

Some models do.

As it didn't develop they take it West.

Weak waves wander West.

Always remember that.

So could it flare up somewhere else?

I'll leave the chance there...

A brief discussion this morning on the tropics as obviously many other things are on my mind this morning when we wake up to the news of the shooting in Dayton last night after I finally fell asleep after watching coverage of the El Paso shooting and more so there is nothing going on in the tropics.  Why is basically a mathematical equation easier to solve than why we have to wake up to such sad news on top of sad news from yesterday.

Strong Shear + Dry Air Kills Strong Waves.
2 is stronger than 1.

Also add in climo and we normally expect the Atlantic to wake up sometime between August 15th and August 26th in any given year no matter how beautiful the waves look or how much hype there is online or how many Invests the NHC is watching.

Understand for years we watched Invests they did not make it to prime time, we talked about them on message boards or in chat rooms or on phone calls late into the night discussing what if might happen or not happen. Then Invests went public and were raised to a higher status and every news media covers them as potential hurricanes when they are just areas of disturbed weather in the tropics with some model support and possibilities down the road.

Yes the MJO is on it's way and yes the Kelvin Wave is waving yet nothing developed. Think of this as being a fantastic possible boyfriend or husband but they don't leave the house and are afraid to meet someone they have been talking to online. They are cute, smart, funny, reliable but they are never going to meet the love of their life or even a best friend if they don't get up, go out and meet the different people they have been talking to and all they can end up doing is asking why so much potential gets lost and ends up like road kill on a hot summer day. Sorry for the inferences but I'm in a mood and pretty sure most of us are this morning.

The MJO and the Kelvin Wave are interesting theories but they only work if there is a well built tropical wave that has a defined center moving Westbound and there is no high as dry as Death Valley out there sucking all the energy out of the once beautiful tropical wave.

And we have to ask what is wrong with models. Yes, models start with an assumption something is there often and other models show where there may be moisture. I'm not in love with models but I do love to watch them wondering which may have been right. It's pretty clear that the Euro as usual beat the GFS on 95L and 96L so it seems the GFS just needs to be dismantled and totally rebuilt or do we give up? The ICON is getting attention of late. What is wrong with America that we can't build a reliable long term model for the tropics? Just throwing it out there. If my brother in Greece reads this he will know what I mean.

Because Twitter is broken since it's update...

...and it messes up our posting images :(

I'll post both so you can see them.

GFS Fail.

EURO Wins.

The EURO originally accurately predicated nothing.

A few stray model runs that excited the NHC

But basically GFS screaming hurricane was wrong.

We figured but good to see consistency.

Consistency from the Euro model.

Leaving you with this loop below.

Will 96L come back to life eventually?

Maybe but not holding my breath.

What will winter bring?

(I didn't say that...okay yes I did)

La Nina is coming I do believe.

Time will tell.

We should have a problematic hurricane season.

Come Fall... when hurricanes develop.

And play chicken with approaching fronts.

Stay Tuned.

Have a good safe weekend.

I'll update Monday Morning.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbstorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... if you want to stay inside this weekend.

The movie Yesterday is cute.

Makes you think.

Kind of a fantasy.

Worth watching... 

Imagine a world with no guns, no bombs.

No anger, no hatred.

Just imagine.

With prayers for the people of Texas.

For the people of Ohio

For America and the World.

UPDATED! 5 PM BARRY FORMS & 93L Forms Yellow Invest Off Africa ...Barry Reminding Me of His Great Ancestor Uncle Earl 1998 - Back to School. Shear Exists, Dry Air Places. Hot Water. Barry Needs a Good Stacked Center.

5 PM Update.
Hurricane warnings up in case it becomes a hurricane.

Note barometric pressure went down.

Usually wind speed follows and goes up.

Stay tuned.

Compare and contrast.

Not much changed.

TS Barry moved .3 degrees West.

That's slow movement.

Maybe slower than 5 MPH 

NHC advisory is "forecast" movement.

Below you see cones next to each other.

Very similar.

Short term movement same.

Mid term a smidgen to the right.

Seems to cut right a drop faster on the 5 PM

11 AM on left. New Cone 5 PM on right.

You can now see Barry from outer space.
I'd venture to say he might be a drop stronger than advisory package.

You can make it out.

A few hours ago you could not make it out without enlarging.

Shown below a much nicer signature than it has had so far.

I'll update with model discussion in a bit.

They have posted a Storm Surge Warning for Lake Ponchatrain.
If you have never been on that lake it's awesome.
From the bridge in the middle you cannot see the sides.
It's as if you are out in the ocean.
It's huge. Communities along it's North rim may have issues.
A Hurricane Warning was issued.
It says in discussion in case it becomes a Hurricane.
They have low confidence but err on the side of caution.
Good idea.

Some excellent discussion on www.flhurricane.com for old school types.

Be back in a bit.

***

1 PM from NHC



Barry consolidating his strength.
Moving slow.
A day for working on himself.....
...while those in his path prepare accordingly.

In the Atlantic 93L is small but spinning some.
Yelp reviews from NHC aren't good.
But maybe it might surprise us.

Just the fact that it's on the board on July 11 is surprising.
Again treat July as if it's August this year.

Satellite imagery shows Barry in the GOM

Waves making their way across the Atlantic

93L out there, small but noticeable.

I'll do a full update after the 5 PM package from the NHC

And I will go over model discussion then.

Stay tuned....

Discussion below that's timely if you haven't already read it.

Thanks... took the day off a bit to take care of somethings.

And not watch the pot in the GOM too closely so it will boil.

Let's see what Barry can do to pull it together today.

Busy day at the NHC.
Invest 93L has now been introduced.
MDR Tropical Wave.
Tropical Storm Barry
Finally forms :)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=93L&product=vis

Note compare and contrast this with discussion below on Earl 98

Note changes to watches and warnings.

Watch the trend to the East.

My Bottom Line on Barry is this...

Prepare if you are told to...

Watch carefully to go into action...

...if you end up later in the area warned.

Watch Barry pull himself together today.

Today is the day....

Shear is still there but hey...

..if not now when?

As I said below I think he will ramp up when he smells land.

Smells land AGAIN.

He came off of land...remember that.

And as for the Atlantic.

Do NOT go by the Calendar.

This July is more like August.

And waves will start to become storms.

Early storms may not go the distance....

....but later storms will make landfall somewhere.

Not all waves but this is a year to worry more.

Huge high.

Strong waves.

So now onto 93L

Could it become Chantal?

Maybe... briefly? 

Time will tell.

It had my attention last night.

Today is has the NHC attention.

In other news, NHC has declared a new invest in the #Atlantic MDR. GOES16 VIS does show a broad area of low-level circulation associated with this tropical wave. The thing to watch will be how strong will the SAL hold over the E'rn Caribbean. #Tropics #93L #Invest93L pic.twitter.com/OOpAvbepIK

— 🌴Eric Drewitz 🌀 (@DrewitzWx) July 11, 2019

Told you not to forget about those strong tropical waves.

More breaking news....
Barry has competition ....

#Barry to be vs Yellow Circle off #Africa #tropical #wave https://t.co/kQqcG1z5nx will be updating soon on African wave I've been watching ... w #PTC2 pic.twitter.com/ZvF0dP12qU

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) July 11, 2019

There is a new area of disturbed weather the NHC is watching this morning over the Main Development Region of the Atlantic Ocean. Now while this likely won't affect land as a tropical cyclone, this uptick in activity is likely a sign of what's to come this season. pic.twitter.com/FadLai6SN2

— Hurricane Tracker App (@hurrtrackerapp) July 11, 2019

As I said yesterday...

While watching Barry come together 

Do not ignore those African Waves.

Showed this last night.

The wave looked better than Barry.

10% currently. May go up to 20% at least.

Keep watching.

Just to be there July 11th is a statement.

Wave by African last night.

Barry last night.

Okay... more on the wave later.

Barry today... maybe.

Barry and the Yellow Circle near Africa.

Still not a hurricane.

There may be some back pedaling from the NHC today.

They have already lowered their expectations.

Tropical Storm Barry end game for now.

Note moisture is everywhere.

Water is warm.

Shear is there too.

The center is trying to form.

Winds up to 35 MPH at 8 AM.

Messy.... such a messy presentation.

B for potential and D for presentation.

Models

Okay let's go back to school today.

Now let's look at Earl from 1998

Earl was an ugly sort of storm.

I don't mean MEAN BADASS UGLY

I mean so ugly... poorly formed.

As in "you got to be kidding me"

As it took a long time to form.

It hooked a right.

We are not expecting that for Barry.
But it's been a similar progress...

As a Cat 2 shown below...

You can see why people asked

"you got to be kidding me"

Yeah the eye was always hard to see...

This is a sample of discussion.

EARL 1998

Link to EARL 1998 Discussion

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/dis/NAL0598.006

Again a quote

"Earl does not have much of a signature at that level . ..

suggesting a rather shallow system that 

may not respond to deeper layer steering"

Note as people are walking by their shirts are not rippling.

"lashing the Florida Panhandle"

Yeah... rain, flooding.

Much of the weather was to the East.

Earl, bless his little center, always looked Extratropical...

...before it went that way.

"don't get me wrong it's swirling"

"not near as bad as it could have been" 

Rainmaker. Up to 17 inches... 

"winds are picking up now...

...probably gusting on the order of 40 or 50 mph...

...surf is holding it's own"

From day one to me Barry reminded me of Earl.

Not in track.... close... but in structure and formation.

Listen it is what it is...

..and it ain't pretty.

But Barry will soon be upgraded to something.

As per NHC discussion and forecast.

The water is warm.

There IS shear... I saw the shear.

I'm not sure why it was discounted.

I go by the water vapor more than models.

I look to see if models verify with the WV.

Always see if models connect to the set up.

Models are suggestions....

...changing slightly on each run.

They are helpful, useful but they don't direct the storm.

They suggest where the storm will go.

They try hard God Bless their algorithms.

So back to Barry.....

For picayune people please read the NHC disclaimer

Always read the small print.

Same track.

As I said previously slow movement in the short term.

Then it feels the weakness and the opening...

The front between the high pressure influences.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Levi Cowan explains this well around 5 minutes in...

Speaking of competing steering flow let's go back a bit...

...to an image I put up showing PTC2 trapped.

 Why hasn't Barry become Barry earlier you ask rather than later? First off there was shear that was extremely noticeable on the water vapor loop. Yes the water beneath the system is very warm, however it helps to have a good structure and for all centers found to be stacked vertically. The much feared Major Hurricane Debby fell apart because it's centers never aligned, it was tilted and basically fell over before it got to destroy Miami as predicted by many models. Yes models were crummier then but back then everyone thought the models were the bomb and Debby would bomb (we said bomb a lot then) and well she blew apart as if she had been bombed.  Let's see what happens once Barry pulls it together and what track it takes and if it finds an opening in the highs to the North, how strong the front is and where we are Friday  morning. I will update later today but not holding my breath. Going shopping.

Forecast above.

They began evacuating the Florida Keys.

Dangerous Debby.....

Then......

... Debby was no mas (no more)

So it's that simple.

Without a center stacked right.

The air cannot evacuate properly.

It is more susceptible to shear...

Think of a building under construction.

If a fire starts in a building under construction.

The fire rages and destroys the structure.

This happened a while back in Raleigh.

The building was not near finished ...

.... fire raged, building destroyed.

Shell left.

Bad, very bad.

https://abc11.com/monstrous-fire-destroys-building-in-downtown-raleigh/1804792/

A Cat 3 is impacted by shear.

Shear stops a mediocre system from forming.

Or it delays it.

That's it.

Winds are up to 35 MPH.

NHC will upgrade it.

It may or may not make hurricane.

We have to see what is under the hood.

Tropical systems do surprise at landfall.

Sometimes the surprise is "OH MY GOD"

Other times the surprise is .. "o my God... meh"

Barry was a Land Cane before it was a tropical system.

It did it's best as it came off shore.

Possibly Barry will do it's best when it sniffs land again.

I'll update later this afternoon.

Have a great day.

I'm going shopping... 

No not for hurricane supplies.

For presents for Miami kids.

For make up (duh)

Maybe cute sandals or heels.

Got places to go next week....

...people to see.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

(lol sorry that's how I felt watching PTC2 yesterday)

I was teasing ....

Yes Barry has HOT WATER...

What was does it really got..

Bonus round for those who got down to the end :)
Not sure why the NRL has this graphic up.
NRL tends to run a step ahead of NHC
Mercury Retrograde maybe?

Time will tell.

A song for a friend... kind of

PTC7 HeadGOM. Watches UP. UPDATED! Invest 91L Forecast to Develop As It Moves Into the GOM. Florence Edging More West Than Originally Forecast. We May Need to Watch FLO Closely Down the Road. Bermuda? East Coast? Or Out to Sea?

Late nite update.

PTC7 formed N as expected.

That doesn't mean there is a TD now.

It means we expect a TD to form.

And we are giving people a heads up.

In South Florida there has been crazy storms today.

Heavy Lightning last night.

It is just a tropical disturbance now.

Models take it into the GOM.

The NHC expects it to be a TS.

This is NOT Katrina 2.

Please be clear.

There has been much said online tonight.

I can understand the concerns.

This is basically where Katrina formed.

Different storm, different year.

Similar cone.

Intensify forecast:

I don't see a hurricane let alone a major hurricane.

Granted things often change fast in the GOM.

That is why the NHC posted these watches NOW.

They also have graphics up for South Florida.

A low level flooding concern.

More graphics up at the NHC.

And thoughts from a good source.

Hurricane Tracker App

For those wondering on Florence ....

...and a TD that could become Gordon.

Those are the ensemble tracks.

Yes... Florence "COULD" get close to the US.

More on that tomorrow.

Been a long day.

Hot in Raleigh.

Very hot and exhausting.

Stay tuned.

Oh and a note of caution.

The system in the GOM now is NOT tropical.

Looks tropical.

It could have been tropical if it had more time.

The new Low forming will go where that one is now.

Sounds complicated but happens sometimes.

Again Lows go to Lows...

Kind of like a ghost cyclone

PTC7 is shown below.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbistorm

For those of you who know me.

I love this song.

It obviously means a lot to me.

I'm sure someone knows why.

@bobbistorm on Twitter

It's not always the storm you think will do you in...

...it's the one you didn't realize would.

:)

*  * *

FLO losing steam.

Watch the NHC cone carefully over the next 2 days.

Explanation of decrease in winds down to 50 MPH.

Stays weak for the next 5 days.

What does this mean?

If this "trend" continues

Expect FLO to be here in 5 days.

Bottom part of today's cone.

IF something changes it could be here...

...closer to Bermuda

IE Aiming at Bermuda...

..not the East Coast.

Florence has a long way to go.

No need to raise flags now...

...but people shouldn't ignore it.

Always stay on top of changes.

FISH STORM may not pan out.

Or be a close call.

More a Mermaid Storm as I said before.

Closer to home.... 

As I say all the time.

Lows go towards Lows.

The area off the SE coast of FL

Hovering over the N coast of Cuba.

High pushes it West...

Extremely heavy lighting in Miami currently.

It's only going to get messier.

Always wise thoughts from Hurricane Tracker App

Stay tuned.

Will update later today.

Models ... eating Spaghetti today.

State of the Tropics Sunday Morning.

Invest 91L for the possible TD in the GOM.

Currently still cruising along the N coast of Cuba.

Through the Florida Straits...

...into the GOM.

New wave with color in the water.

Flo without much color to it's NW

Hmnn.

Below you see the area with 80% in the 5 day.

Only fly in the ointment with 91L above is...

..if it develops sooner and stays over water longer.

As for FLO

Salient part here is...

Not forecasting a hurricane.

Maybe after the 5 day.

Up in the Atlantic.

But not now.

Let's get back to the basics and take an honest look at Tropical Storm Florence. She's out there battling the same inferior conditions that the last several waves encountered, however she is in some what warmer water and "climo" is on her side. It's September and that means we watch tropical waves that depart Africa and currently there is a conga line of waves coming off of Africa; some of those waves better candidates for long term travel than others. Some will develop, others will fizzle and some may provide a few weeks of drama along the coastal cities in hurricane country in the not so distant future.

Take Florence for instance. The models have been gung ho on Florence for a while now, even before it rolled off of Africa it really didn't look that fantastic once it hit the water. But the models were insistent and latched onto it the way a baby knows it's gonna get fed if it cries loud. It's a viable Tropical Storm, but the early discussion (based on the models) about it being a Fish Storm and a hurricane have not yet panned out. If not for the models, back in the old days, meteorologists would tell you that these waves go WNW and sometimes bend back to West depending on the strength of the high. And, if a wave develops quickly it most likely will pull North faster and become a Fish Storm and they may have reminded you that even with what looks like a Fish Storm you have to make sure it doesn't bend back and get trapped when the High snaps shut. The problem with that scenario is that if and when the High snaps shut the Fish Storm is at a higher latitude and it could be a problem for the East Coast. A weak tropical wave would just go West, get into the Caribbean and develop later when it finds a sweet spot and be a Gulf of Mexico problem if it climbs in latitude. Those mets without the models would be giving you good advice; especially with a weak wave in an Atlantic still a bit too dry and not in the warmest of water.



So let's go back to the basics.

For real development to take place in any season you need warm water, light shear, a moist atmosphere and a real center that is aligned well in all levels of the atmosphere. The problem with Florence currently is that she is battling the same crappy conditions (albeit less SAL) that the previous waves encountered. She's holding her own, moving steady WNW but the models were off on the big curve out to sea early on. If that is true what else are the models wrong about?  And again remember the models update in real time and each new model run is updated with new information.

The problem with the NHC is that they NEED their forecasts to VERIFY so as a storm does it's own thing and doesn't exactly follow the program they need to move slowly and explain why it is not and hope that something changes and explain that it looks like it is following the last forecast advisory package but they have made small adjustments blah blah blah. In general the NHC is good and especially good in the 3 day with regard to track but they are horrible when it comes to intensity forecasting. My apologies to my friends there, just something has seemed off all year from broken satellites, forcing people to use new satellite imagery that is often broken and closing off the axis to the old ones that worked better and we won't even discuss the loss of the good ole floaters with the "forecast points" in them. Yes all the channels are wonderful on the SLIDER but it's like those stupid packages ATT sells with thousands of channels and many are just infomercials. I'm sorry a 24/7 infomercial is not a channel and a broken satellite image is not an improvement it's more of a broken toy you are always trying to get to work right. Except at home Momma would take back the toy and demand her money back and TARGET would give her a refund. We are stuck with what it is until it's fixed. 

There is Florence out in the Atlantic.

In a sea of darkness

(dry air)

A large High Pressure area exists.

Note the spotted deadly dry air on the image below.

NW of FLO

Below you see where the really warm water is...

...it ain't where Miss Florence is.

Note where the warmer water really is...

...closer in.

That brings us back to what we said earlier in the season.

This season carries a close in to the coast threat.

IF Florence can get to the warmer water...

...if the high pushes it further West.

It ends up trapped close to the coast.

Run this loop and watch the High.

Don't look for a hurricane.

Watch the "cold fronts"

Do you see a cold front sweep out to sea?

A cold front that would sweep Florence away?

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Note really.

They all go flat. 

Cold front, cool front, stationary front.

That's problematic... IF...

...IF... Florence doesn't go Fish early on.

Understand?

Now let's look at the models.

Remember please models are iffy.

They change slowly over time.

They indicate they offer solutions.

Think of them as problem solvers.

Not soothsayers. 

Here we are today more or less

Down the tropical road.

That is a potential problem.

Let's look at www.windy.com

Another view of that model.

Could that be a problem for Bermuda?

Maybe.

Next frames though show it stays South of Bermuda.

Hmnn.

And yes there is a developed system behind it.

Welcome to September.

As for the GFS.

It shows a stronger storm.

A weaker ridge.

More of a Fish Storm

Wouldn't it be fun to see the GFS win one?

I'm not sold on the Fish Storm just yet.

I haven't been all along.

I haven't been because I wasn't impressed with FLO.

Florence is a beginning for what will be a busy September.

Again let's look at that graphic I put at the top.

The problem with 2018 is that the water is warmer near the coast.

And until we get cold fronts, rolling, rolling, rolling...

..we will be flirting with tropical trouble.

As for the tropical trouble in the GOM.

It is a rainmaker.

I'm not going to say it won't have wind.

But it is a huge rainmaker.

Should it form slower, move further into the GOM.

It could develop stronger.

Timing and location is everything.

Currently this is what we are expecting.

We may get a surprise.

Leaving the door open for strong TS.

Note the huge amounts of rain ...

...along the coast and inland.

Would so love a cold front to SWEEP through...

But wishing won't make it so.

Note the Key West NWS discussion.

Now look at New Orleans discussion.

Tropical Depression.

They are on it.

They are watching.

Doing a good job.

Speaking of good jobs.

A real shout out to Mike at Spaghettimodels.com

www.spaghettimodels.com

He finds links that work...

... he updates, he helps advise.

He does a damn good job.

I'll update later

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps..in the ever changing world in which we live....

...it's not easy to always check and update broken links.