PTC7 HeadGOM. Watches UP. UPDATED! Invest 91L Forecast to Develop As It Moves Into the GOM. Florence Edging More West Than Originally Forecast. We May Need to Watch FLO Closely Down the Road. Bermuda? East Coast? Or Out to Sea?

Late nite update.

PTC7 formed N as expected.

That doesn't mean there is a TD now.

It means we expect a TD to form.

And we are giving people a heads up.

In South Florida there has been crazy storms today.

Heavy Lightning last night.

It is just a tropical disturbance now.

Models take it into the GOM.

The NHC expects it to be a TS.

This is NOT Katrina 2.

Please be clear.

There has been much said online tonight.

I can understand the concerns.

This is basically where Katrina formed.

Different storm, different year.

Similar cone.

Intensify forecast:

I don't see a hurricane let alone a major hurricane.

Granted things often change fast in the GOM.

That is why the NHC posted these watches NOW.

They also have graphics up for South Florida.

A low level flooding concern.

More graphics up at the NHC.

And thoughts from a good source.

Hurricane Tracker App

For those wondering on Florence ....

...and a TD that could become Gordon.

Those are the ensemble tracks.

Yes... Florence "COULD" get close to the US.

More on that tomorrow.

Been a long day.

Hot in Raleigh.

Very hot and exhausting.

Stay tuned.

Oh and a note of caution.

The system in the GOM now is NOT tropical.

Looks tropical.

It could have been tropical if it had more time.

The new Low forming will go where that one is now.

Sounds complicated but happens sometimes.

Again Lows go to Lows...

Kind of like a ghost cyclone

PTC7 is shown below.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbistorm

For those of you who know me.

I love this song.

It obviously means a lot to me.

I'm sure someone knows why.

@bobbistorm on Twitter

It's not always the storm you think will do you in...

...it's the one you didn't realize would.

:)

*  * *

FLO losing steam.

Watch the NHC cone carefully over the next 2 days.

Explanation of decrease in winds down to 50 MPH.

Stays weak for the next 5 days.

What does this mean?

If this "trend" continues

Expect FLO to be here in 5 days.

Bottom part of today's cone.

IF something changes it could be here...

...closer to Bermuda

IE Aiming at Bermuda...

..not the East Coast.

Florence has a long way to go.

No need to raise flags now...

...but people shouldn't ignore it.

Always stay on top of changes.

FISH STORM may not pan out.

Or be a close call.

More a Mermaid Storm as I said before.

Closer to home.... 

As I say all the time.

Lows go towards Lows.

The area off the SE coast of FL

Hovering over the N coast of Cuba.

High pushes it West...

Extremely heavy lighting in Miami currently.

It's only going to get messier.

Always wise thoughts from Hurricane Tracker App

Stay tuned.

Will update later today.

Models ... eating Spaghetti today.

State of the Tropics Sunday Morning.

Invest 91L for the possible TD in the GOM.

Currently still cruising along the N coast of Cuba.

Through the Florida Straits...

...into the GOM.

New wave with color in the water.

Flo without much color to it's NW

Hmnn.

Below you see the area with 80% in the 5 day.

Only fly in the ointment with 91L above is...

..if it develops sooner and stays over water longer.

As for FLO

Salient part here is...

Not forecasting a hurricane.

Maybe after the 5 day.

Up in the Atlantic.

But not now.

Let's get back to the basics and take an honest look at Tropical Storm Florence. She's out there battling the same inferior conditions that the last several waves encountered, however she is in some what warmer water and "climo" is on her side. It's September and that means we watch tropical waves that depart Africa and currently there is a conga line of waves coming off of Africa; some of those waves better candidates for long term travel than others. Some will develop, others will fizzle and some may provide a few weeks of drama along the coastal cities in hurricane country in the not so distant future.

Take Florence for instance. The models have been gung ho on Florence for a while now, even before it rolled off of Africa it really didn't look that fantastic once it hit the water. But the models were insistent and latched onto it the way a baby knows it's gonna get fed if it cries loud. It's a viable Tropical Storm, but the early discussion (based on the models) about it being a Fish Storm and a hurricane have not yet panned out. If not for the models, back in the old days, meteorologists would tell you that these waves go WNW and sometimes bend back to West depending on the strength of the high. And, if a wave develops quickly it most likely will pull North faster and become a Fish Storm and they may have reminded you that even with what looks like a Fish Storm you have to make sure it doesn't bend back and get trapped when the High snaps shut. The problem with that scenario is that if and when the High snaps shut the Fish Storm is at a higher latitude and it could be a problem for the East Coast. A weak tropical wave would just go West, get into the Caribbean and develop later when it finds a sweet spot and be a Gulf of Mexico problem if it climbs in latitude. Those mets without the models would be giving you good advice; especially with a weak wave in an Atlantic still a bit too dry and not in the warmest of water.



So let's go back to the basics.

For real development to take place in any season you need warm water, light shear, a moist atmosphere and a real center that is aligned well in all levels of the atmosphere. The problem with Florence currently is that she is battling the same crappy conditions (albeit less SAL) that the previous waves encountered. She's holding her own, moving steady WNW but the models were off on the big curve out to sea early on. If that is true what else are the models wrong about?  And again remember the models update in real time and each new model run is updated with new information.

The problem with the NHC is that they NEED their forecasts to VERIFY so as a storm does it's own thing and doesn't exactly follow the program they need to move slowly and explain why it is not and hope that something changes and explain that it looks like it is following the last forecast advisory package but they have made small adjustments blah blah blah. In general the NHC is good and especially good in the 3 day with regard to track but they are horrible when it comes to intensity forecasting. My apologies to my friends there, just something has seemed off all year from broken satellites, forcing people to use new satellite imagery that is often broken and closing off the axis to the old ones that worked better and we won't even discuss the loss of the good ole floaters with the "forecast points" in them. Yes all the channels are wonderful on the SLIDER but it's like those stupid packages ATT sells with thousands of channels and many are just infomercials. I'm sorry a 24/7 infomercial is not a channel and a broken satellite image is not an improvement it's more of a broken toy you are always trying to get to work right. Except at home Momma would take back the toy and demand her money back and TARGET would give her a refund. We are stuck with what it is until it's fixed. 

There is Florence out in the Atlantic.

In a sea of darkness

(dry air)

A large High Pressure area exists.

Note the spotted deadly dry air on the image below.

NW of FLO

Below you see where the really warm water is...

...it ain't where Miss Florence is.

Note where the warmer water really is...

...closer in.

That brings us back to what we said earlier in the season.

This season carries a close in to the coast threat.

IF Florence can get to the warmer water...

...if the high pushes it further West.

It ends up trapped close to the coast.

Run this loop and watch the High.

Don't look for a hurricane.

Watch the "cold fronts"

Do you see a cold front sweep out to sea?

A cold front that would sweep Florence away?

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Note really.

They all go flat. 

Cold front, cool front, stationary front.

That's problematic... IF...

...IF... Florence doesn't go Fish early on.

Understand?

Now let's look at the models.

Remember please models are iffy.

They change slowly over time.

They indicate they offer solutions.

Think of them as problem solvers.

Not soothsayers. 

Here we are today more or less

Down the tropical road.

That is a potential problem.

Let's look at www.windy.com

Another view of that model.

Could that be a problem for Bermuda?

Maybe.

Next frames though show it stays South of Bermuda.

Hmnn.

And yes there is a developed system behind it.

Welcome to September.

As for the GFS.

It shows a stronger storm.

A weaker ridge.

More of a Fish Storm

Wouldn't it be fun to see the GFS win one?

I'm not sold on the Fish Storm just yet.

I haven't been all along.

I haven't been because I wasn't impressed with FLO.

Florence is a beginning for what will be a busy September.

Again let's look at that graphic I put at the top.

The problem with 2018 is that the water is warmer near the coast.

And until we get cold fronts, rolling, rolling, rolling...

..we will be flirting with tropical trouble.

As for the tropical trouble in the GOM.

It is a rainmaker.

I'm not going to say it won't have wind.

But it is a huge rainmaker.

Should it form slower, move further into the GOM.

It could develop stronger.

Timing and location is everything.

Currently this is what we are expecting.

We may get a surprise.

Leaving the door open for strong TS.

Note the huge amounts of rain ...

...along the coast and inland.

Would so love a cold front to SWEEP through...

But wishing won't make it so.

Note the Key West NWS discussion.

Now look at New Orleans discussion.

Tropical Depression.

They are on it.

They are watching.

Doing a good job.

Speaking of good jobs.

A real shout out to Mike at Spaghettimodels.com

www.spaghettimodels.com

He finds links that work...

... he updates, he helps advise.

He does a damn good job.

I'll update later

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps..in the ever changing world in which we live....

...it's not easy to always check and update broken links.

Updated! 2 AM Orange Circle up to 60% for GOM Trouble. September TS Florence - Caribbean Area Up to 50% - EURO Sticks by her Man w Landfall Near Louisiana. Florence Hugs the South Side of the NHC Forecast Cone.

60% odds in the 5 day.

You can see the early semblance of it trying to...

...pull itself together.

There's more there going on than yesterday.

Unfortunately can't say the same for Florence.

Looks weaker tonight.

Convection waning.

Dry air to her NW hampering her.

We'd like her to intensify.

Ups the odds of her staying lower...

...and getting further to the West.

Note convection in the wave behind Flo.

Over time that dry air is being drawn down.

Towards Flo... 

Image on the top the beginning of the loop.

Picture at the bottom.. end of loop.

*  *  *

She's not exactly a ridge buster currently.

We will see down the road how it goes.

I think she looked better earlier as seen below.

Tropical Storm Florence.

I like the night time image of her.

You can see better down into her core.

Structure.

Compact inside a larger envelope of moisture.

What might be Gordon off the N coast of Cuba.

If Gordon doesn't form in the Atlantic ...

...and this just becomes a TD.

Seems only the EURO knows for sure.

Euro model consistent in it's support

And the cone for Florence.

Understand where Florence is on Thursday is important.

Is it down near 20 N (current bottom of the cone)

Or up near 26 N (current top of the cone)

You can extrapolate movement from that point.

We won't know for a while.

As I said on Friday....

...they keep inching the cone to the left..

Or actually more to the South.

More westward movement ....

It's a complicated set up in that when the wind shear is low the water is not that warm. Where the water is warmer the wind shear is higher. This is not forecast to be a Hurricane. I'm pretty sure she'd rather be a hurricane and if she was a hurricane than busting into the High Pressure Ridge would be more believable. Alas Florence remains a runner up, a nice looking tropical storm so far.

Brief Saturday evening update on Tropical Storm Florence and the wave in the Caribbean with a 50% chance of developing and moving up into the Gulf of Mexico making landfall around Louisiana as a weak, wet system that moves West into Texas moving very slowly and dumping much rain. There are also a group of possible storms developing later in the forecast period as strong, viable waves move off of Africa into a friendlier environment than the earlier waves found. I'll do a long update Sunday morning. Just marking time. For those who celebrate the Jewish Sabbath as I do it's worth noting Saturday Night is some extra day in the calendar, very awake and refreshed in ways and ready to start the day again but it's late at night in the summertime. Raleigh is not Miami where restaurants stay open late, kosher ones, and there's a plethora to do so I'm looping loops of Florence and wondering on what the next few days may bring.

Here's Florence cruising along above.

Give it a few days and you get here...

This coming Wednesday IF the EURO is correct.

Florence below the high.

A small closed low by Louisiana

Below is Florence as a stronger system.

You can see a weakness in the high develops.

Florence on Saturday reaches the edge of the high.

Note the high is fluid between now and then...

...much can happen.

This is only a model.

Note the waves behind Florence....

The question remains how strong is the high at that point.

Does it snap back into place.

Does it open up a wider path for Florence to take.

The difference is Flo being an out to sea storm.

Or a possible problem along the East Coat.

Maybe just a surf maker ... 

Now if Flo was a hurricane....

...I'd be a bigger believer in a Fish Storm.

Flo might have some tricks up it's sleeve.

Note also following the EURO here.

Whatever hits Louisiana....

... lingers around the Texas coastline.

A real rainmaker is possible

That's a lot of rain.

Even as a wet Tropical Depression.

A lot of rain.

Long range models above

All signs point to a busy time in the tropics.

Hello September.

I'll update Sunday Morning.

September 1st, 2018

Hurricane Season comes to life...

... as per Climo.

A "normal" year in ways.

Besos Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

(did you really think I was going to do EWF

Times have changed.....)