A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, November 02, 2021
Wanda. Yellow Circle Seeds an EPAC Storm. Kind of the Story of the Year in the SW Caribbean
The hard to see red symbol is Wanda, mixed into that whole cloud mess on the other side of the ocean. It's also kind of hard to notice the yellow on the edge of a beach abiout to jump into the Eastern Pacific that is at 0% chances in the Atlantic.
But if you move on over to the Eastern Pacific part of the NHC Main Pages you will see our little X is healthier and is being given 30% chances of development in there. Actually another yellow circle pops up there on the 5 day as seen below.
This has really been the story of the year on many levels and will be researched by many to see why the East Pacific received so many of the low, westbound waves that normally potentially dangerous SW Caribbean storms that gave them a longer season than normal. And, when I say that I mean normally as the Atlantic goes into high gear the East Pac slows down, there's a normal ebb and flow of energy and yet this year the seedlings for the dangerous SW Caribbean Storms all slid across the isthmus into the Pacific.
In general the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season was either STORMY WILD or soooo slow. It had a sputtering sort of nature where everything formed in groups and you can see that by the graphic above. June and early July were busy, whereas later in July and August it was not. Late August and September were busy, though many were "shorties" that barely lasted yet did pump up the number of actual storms we had even if most of you cannot remember their name. Since the beginning of August it's been quiet. Note if you take away all the blue dots and only look at the orange dashes you'll see we really didn't have such a busy season. It's really a matter of prespective. Quality over quantity and in this case we lucked out as Larry and his friend Sam both stayed out in the Atlantic putting on a colorful show on the satelitte imagery but not thrashing our beaches or drowning out cities so for that we are grateful. It reminds me a lot of how morse code works, dot, dot, dot, dash, dot, dot ...well you get that if you ever learned Morse Code which I did but I do not really remember; a cute neighbor boy was involved who wanted to ran cables from our houses to each other so we could "talk" when we were young. (He was probably a boy scout now that I think about it)
I digress... because there really isn't much to talk about. If I go to Windy.com I'm prone to watch the images for cold weather and who is going to get some snow.
Why does the blue (really cold air)
stop at the Mason Dixie?
Kentucky gets it but not Tennessee?
Just odd things always amaze me on graphics like this.
But winter is coming.
Tropical storms are not.
So have a great day.
Malls have Christmas decorations up...
.... no real crowds where I live.
But the msuic is nice.
TJ Maxx is a winter wonderful.
Pink Flamingoes are in storage.
It's the sign of the times!!
Not proofing........
....I have a headache.
Wish I was in Key West this morning!
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps... Where are you spending the holidays?
Thanksgiving blends into Chanukah (early) this year.
Christmas... flows into New Years Eve.
I know... we haven't even eaten turkey yet for Thanksgiving.
2021 has been on Zoom Zoom time.......so do you have a clue?
Christmas Island - Jimmy Buffett.wmv By the way the locals used to call the small island to the West of Key West, but they developed it and renamed it Sunset Island. But it's really a place...........there's also another one, we have lots of names locals use for things down on the rock.
Tropics Thursday. Quiet Now But Is Trouble Waiting In The Wings? What's Your Favorite Hurricane Movie? Summer Here and Everyone Wants to Go Somewhere But Where?
NHC sasy they see nothing.
I see convection in GOM
And a weak stalled out front.
That gave it up to the huge High.
And I see a stronger wave off of Africa.
Earthnull below.
Loop below.
Cliff notes version.
New wave off Africa may be the one that models show juicing up the atmosphere and possibly developing. Or that moisture just flows up from the Caribbean. Where does the High move, go or hold up tells the story if we get something and where we get something. GFS keeps aiming at the GOM beaches but only time will tell. Strong high, for now Florida looks safe but looks can be deceiving.
Okay that is the end of the real Tropical Update, the rest you can enjoy if you'd like to read and enjoy the links, thoughts and the way my messy mind works.
This is going to be a short blog today because there's not much to say and I want to do a short blog for my friends who enjoy shorter vs longer. So I figured for the bored, creative types going out of their mind who chose not to take trips and go places maybe I could find something for yu to do, or you to do with yout kids or maybe you pooch likes watching you color. It wasn't easy. First I put "Mandelas Hurricane" into my browser and it offered me a book on Nelson Mandela. Obviously Google and I were not on the same page. Good book by the way, read it but not the type of Mandela I wanted. Oh and when I said "short' I meant I was going to write more than talk tropics and show mutliple models you can see elsewhere. I really meant "Old School BobbiStorm" and obviously I have a problem spelling that word more than Mike does Spaghetti... really it's a thing.
But this shows hows much the word Hurricane and the concept of being in the eye of a hurricane is burned into our brain and our consciousness as a metaphor for a trial, a tribulation and something we learn from after the storm has moved on and that's why she said in Twister "when you said you chased Tornadoes I thought it was a methaphor" which is a great line but my experience on Google today shows the reality of why she made that statement. She was also a therapist and they think different from you and me, analyzing everything we say, do and even our body language.
So here was an example of my trip through Google this morning and I do mean that metaphorically. I'm obviously in the mood for a trip but where and when and for how long remains the question and in my neck of the woods Covid cases are on the rise climbing high, not declining so I may have to take a visual trip.
Would love to track a hurricane and would love to be in a hurricane because that's who I am, if you thought I liked Fair Weather you are obvisouly reading the wrong blog. Some people want a hurricane to escape from life and others want it to knock down and blow away their school, or their kid's school (I have a friend who actually wished that all the time) and some want to stand outside in the storm then watch it get quiet and see the clouds disappear and enjoy every single moment of quiet staring at the wonder of it all yet knowing the back side of the storm will reappear and slap you in the face faster than you could ever imagine. It's awesome. And, as much as I love the eye I really love the bands, the bands of rain and watching things go flying in the wind and there is a sense of awe and wonder that can't be explained to someone who doesn't understand that. Some go to sleep, some hide in a closet and others stand there staring in wonder. Which one are you?
Note the progression of images as Google tried to find to read my mind but obviously not too many people want to color in a mandela of a hurricane and there might be a good product to make and sell online or not. Or just make your own or watch Twister and there really is a huge lack of really good hurricane movies. I mean how many times can you watch Key Largo? Actually, I'm going to watch a movie today my ex-husband recommended about Cuba and Florida as he said he thought of me and knew I'd love it so that's on my To Do List.
The trailer is below. The images of my trip around Google are also below. I'll update if and when some thing happens today. It's gonna rain in Raleigh and our temperatures are forecast to be lower so maybe I'll just sit and watch the rain from my balcony or take a walk or whatever.
Have a wonderful day. I'll be back sooner I think than many realize as the EPAC is trying hard to produce a cyclone. This is like watching someone give birth in slow motion, it ain't pretty. And yet the Atlantic with it's Dust Storm will probably produce something sooner rather than later so I just showed the 2 day because I'm a believer that Mother Nature can't wait to throw something else at us.
okay nice but no tho that bottom left one is pretty
okay that was better we got weather at least.
Oh wait I think Google got it!
Success tho really that's a boring Mandela
Or you can color it interesting.
Kind of like life.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
or
Which one do you want to watch? Do you have a favorite Hurricane Movie? Hurricane movie about hurricanes not life or boxing or well you get the idea. Because we don't metaphorically chase hurricanes in truth we chase them or hide from them. Which are you?
Father's Day Weekend. No Hurricanes Threatening Your Favorite Place So Enjoy It. Tropics Quiet. Do What You Love. Find Someone or Some Place to Love. Enjoy It. 2020 Hurricane Season May Rearrange It So Get Out There Now!
Two things I want to touch on briefly today and they are rivers in North Carolina that are peaking from heavy rains going into the Hurricane Season setting up a potential disasterous problem should we get hit by a large, wet hurricane this year. I say that because not all hurricanes are wet but they as they are often dangerous in different ways. Andrew was dry as a bone, yet it rearranged the landscape and was deadly, disasterous and memorable. The 1926 Hurricane in Miami was huge, wet and disastrous. Years ago I had a theme going that no two hurricanes were alike and no two seasons were alike; think I talked on Cabbage Patch Dolls a lot after being inspired by an incredibly unique, drop dead gorgeous guy. Inspiration is what it is ya know.
But it's true and huge Hurricane Floyd that whooshed past Miami on it's way to North Carolina delivered a knock out punch to some communities as did Fran, Matthew and Florence as well as a multitude of others I could bore you with but if you are interestered buy the Barnes book on Norch Carolina Hurricanes. 1996 was the year of stroll on by South Florida, do not stop and keep going to North Carolina as they all headed towards Mother Nature's favorite hurricane destination somewhere between Morehead City and Wilmington. If it was totally up to me I'd move to Morehead City for a number of reasons as the place just calls to me. The Bogue is more beautiful than Biscayne Bay and that says a lot. Feel free to Google the words "Bouge" and "North Caroliona" but I'm just saying that this pattern of huge, big, wet hurricanes coming on years when they already had historic rainfall is setting up for a possible problem and it concerns me. Can't shake it really and as everyone talks on 1995 because "look how busy it is" it really has more in common in my mind with the 1996 set up than the 1995 intensely caffeinated hurricane season. Again time will tell, no two hurricane seasons are alike even if they are similar.
Next, I'm concerned with all the distractions going on currently that people will dismiss the Hurricane Season because of the pandemnic and the protests and obsessing too much on CHAZ in Seattle (that's for my son in case he's reading) and no I don't mean Sonny Bono's son but the point here is while debating on which style mask to wear if you have to wear one or where you want to go as soon as "this is over" or the Presidential Election I don't want to touch at all ... people are distracted, tired and there is this sense of denial that "this can't happen" because we are too busy and honestly Mother Nature doesn't care about how tired you are or how wet you are (meteorologically) or how exhausted you are or who has Corona or who doesn't Mother Nature does what Mother Nature does and when the water is warm and the shear is forecast to be low and strong healthy waves move off of Africa in a season such as this one they will most likely go into the Caribbean under the HUMONGOUS High and head towards @icyclone's Hurricane Cottage in Pass Christian that has seen it's number of hurricanes already or they will find a weakness in the High and slide up along the East Coast scaring everyone and slamming into North Carolina. Oh, yeah we can have some nice ocean spinners as every hurricane season has dancing Fish Storms in the Atlantic.
So do you thing and prepare. Make a plan or at least a list and don't lose it. Send it to your Gmail or post it on the wall somewhere, do not write it on an old shopping list pad or in a note book where you forget it. Update the list as needed, especially with regards to any medicines you may need such as asthma, allergy or anxiety as this has been that sort of year already and I don't see any reason for it to end anytime soon just because we want it to end.
Note one of my favorite magazines that I tend to read online knows the Saharan Dust Outbreak is normal and nothing more. It's up there with Our State that is one of the best written magazines anywhere with much heart and feeling for this region of the world. You should check it out, and they do weather articles often. Good, honest hype free article below about SAL.
Mike has added a great link to his page and I don't just mean my Water Vapor Loop but a link on SAL that moves faster than your vacuumn cleaner. Yes, I am in a mood today. You're observant. Moving on along. There are many great sites online and you can Google them, but if you check Mike's site out often to see what's happening scroll down on the left side and you will find this site and the ever popular lightning site. Trust me I've stood out in a thunderstorm checking that site to see where it's moving, what's going on and waiting for the next big streak of lightning to make me go "WOW" and then check the site to see if it registered. Okay, not totally exaggerating there.
So as for me I'm going to take a walk or dance a bit for exercise or really who knows. I'm in one of those moods. Father's Day is coming and I'm putting together a package for my husband who is a Father, Stepfather and a Grandfather as well as a generally all round good guy who puts up with my love for weather and my moods and is always ready to jump in the car and go somewhere because I want to be at the beach when a storm is coming in or drive up and down the streets of Beaufort South Carolina so I can tell him over and over how much I love the Low Country and the South. But we are kind of grounded these days as we haven't taken any real road trips "because Corona" but at some point we will but for now my home base is Raleigh and it's not a bad place to be. The Flea Market isn't open :( but the Farmers Market is and it is what it is until things change.
Have a wonderful weekend and hope you find something to do that you enjoy and if you can't go travel to see your father, children or grandchildren or don't have any and even the dog is too lazy to want to go for a long walk then find something you enjoy and do it. All men matter! Find an Uncle or a Brother to call up and tell them how wonderful they are even if you have to lie a little, because really as much as you love your siblings they can drive you crazy more than any one else but you still love them like crazy). If you are an only child without children and sadly your father is no long with us and you have no Uncles well look in the mirror and tell youreself "DAMN I'M INCREDIBLE" and then go buy yourself something be it a candy bar at the dollar store or a red, weather radio on Amazon. You deserve it! We all do. Then wait til this is over so we can party like 1925!
Much love ....
... Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps Hurricane History is Fran from the very busy 1996 Hurricane Season.
If you are still here, this is the bonus round ... the Extra Credit Present.
My daughter Dina loved this show and sometimes we'd watch it and it was very her and me in ways. I always loved the scenery and neither of us like to wait for things but over time you learn to wait when you have to but it turns out it was filmed in North Carolina in one of the areas here I love the most. I also love New Bern, but I'm digressing and while I'm digressing Oriental is beautiful too. The funny part about it is that it wasn't filmed in New England, but North Carolina. See Hollywood is like that it's lies and illusions pieced together, edited and packaged with slick soundtracks and sappy love stories but in truth you gotta go out there and find your own happy ending and if you can't find that find a place that resonates and that you love and then you will be happy. Well, unless a hurricane comes cruising at you like a cruise missle and no I am not going to show a Tom Cruise scene.
Please add it to your subscribed sites on YouTube.
As mentioned yesterday in my rant...
Many of us go to YouTube for news and updates.
I missed today's Cuomo Press Conference...
With 2 daughters living in New York I watch it usually.
... I'll check it out on YouTube after proofing this blog.
In 2020 we have many options.
From the Apps we use to the websites we use.
From the people we subscribe to ...
... to the links others share with us.
As I said yesterday "choose wisely"
Currently nothing is in the tropics to worry on...
We are in Severe Weather Season still.
A tornado warning exists today in Georgia.
That system moves into Florida and the Carolinas soon.
Off Africa there are your early pre-season waves.
And in the N Atlantic there are remnants of the last system.
Today's blog post is all about the Hurricane Season of 2020. I promised that yesterday and keeping my promise today. I'm giving my thoughts on our current situation with five important reasons that this coming Hurricane Season is forecast to be stronger than average and to have a higher potential for landfalling systems than other years when we could have a plethora of named storms that stay out at sea or fall apart victim to wind shear that is not forecast to be a large factor this year. That said, note wind shear forecasts are often iffy and subject to change but the patterns that exist and are evolving show a disturbing picture for what we will be facing sooner rather than later. The official start of the Hurricane Season in the Atlantic is June 1st, but very often we have an early season storm that makes landfall before the season officially begins. Mother Nature doesn't always obey the calendar rules as we all know when we see Springtime snow or Severe Weather in the Winter before Spring officially begins. Just as we can have 80 degree temperatures in North Carolina in March before a cold front races through and the temperature drops we may easily see Arthur in May not sometime in June.
When discussing "forecasts" for the Hurricane Season I need to mention Covid-19 because they will at some point collide and we must deal with it in an appropriate way. In the same way I'm giving an example of how forecasts and hyped headlines can change rapidly when dealing with Covid-19 from no worries on using a mask to cities and states advising you must wear a mask if you go to the store our outside in public. In the same way forecasts for a possibly weak season based on cool water temperatures may lead many to letting down their guard to suddenly having the rug pulled out from below them when a Major Hurricane such as Dorian is forecast to track dangerously close to their home towns in Florida. Forecasts are based on facts known at that time and they are subject to change so watch for updates frequently and learn from everything including our battle with Covid-19.
As promised yesterday I would buckle down today and begin a serious look at the 2020 Hurricane Season. It's been hard for me to jump into discussing this early as I normally do as we are all going through a difficult time dealing with the fast moving stream of information regarding Covid-19. Many of us have been personally impacted by the disease and the deaths of people we know and love as every day brings a new tragic story as well sometimes a happy story of someone leaving the hospital and going home that had previously been given low chances of surviving the disease. There seems to be a randomness to Covid-19 in that sometimes a young healthy person dies despite the discussion on older people being most at risk and then you read a story about some older person in their 90s who survived the disease. I believe all of the hype on how it mostly kills older people was over played and gave many younger people the misconception that they were almost invincible and that they only had to worry that their grandparents didn't die. While that is true on some levels, many young people have health conditions that go unnoticed or they simply were not able to fight off the disease. How often have you read about a high school football player who collapsed on a field in what seemed to be the healthiest phase of his life to only later find out he had a hidden heart defect that caused his death? The same such person would be a high risk if they contracted Covid-19 as often once in the hospital battling the disease the heart or the kidneys begin to collapse leading to a very long stay in the hospital or a devastating death for the family members who never expected he or she would succumb to the disease.
While mentioning the fact here that sometimes "facts" can be misconceived or misunderstood or sometimes later after learning more "facts" change - it's worth remembering that when looking at forecasts for the 2020 Hurricane Season. Sometimes, though rarely, weather conditions change unusually fast and a colder than average winter on the East Coast turns to a mild, winter without any accumulation of snow and despite the predictions made by experts "something changed" and that happened recently when the basketball season ended only to be followed by other sports stopping and theaters closing as we evolved into a world where the landscape looks different from any that we could have ever imagined. Oil dropped to a DOLLAR a BARREL and while gas is extremely cheap most of us are not currently commuting anywhere so supply and demand slammed an already difficult time for those who were used to being rich from the high price of oil. The Stock Market at all time record highs suddenly hit a wall and fell for days on end while many watched the value of their portfolios drop way lower than ever expected. While many said a correction was coming, no one saw the free fall that happened when the reality of the Corona Virus that was renamed Covid-19 became apparent and impacted the Stock Market.
Forecasts are predictions based on what we know currently as facts. Facts can often change.
Let's look back at the early Pandemic Predictions:
Cruise ship travel would most likely be okay.
No need to wear masks or gloves just stay a safe distance from others.
Social Distancing rules evolved from 4 feet to 6 feet to people feeling safer staying home.
Air Travel shouldn't be a problem was an early prediction and then.... we learned more facts.
Things changed.
The picture above is from the New York Times.
(Why isn't she wearing gloves?)
Hmnn ....
Note how spaced out passengers are here.
On Monday my best friend's two adult children who live in New York had to find a flight to Miami for the funeral for their father who died suddenly during the Covid-19 crisis in Miami to be with their other two siblings living there. The flights on JetBlue cost them $600 round trip each and there were only 50 passengers allowed on the plane with everyone spaced out wearing mandatory face masks and gloves. On Tuesday I watched with my best friend on Facebook Live that was live streamed the small funeral for friends and his many grandchildren to watch. Life in 2020 seems unreal but after a few weeks this has become "normal" and I mention it as I know many of us are going through similar sudden decisions on traveling to a funeral or wishing we could go to someone's house to comfort them and maybe bring a casserole but we are now limited to talking on Facebook Messenger, sharing pictures on Instagram and making a brief condolence call.
Below we have Alaska Airline crew members.
(Why don't they have on masks?
I know they are now wearing them.)
Maybe they thought the mask images would be scary.
A Seattle trip squeezed in fast to see my kids there.
Because I knew things would change fast.
Spoiler Alert: They changed even faster than I expected.
Faster than forecast... if you get my drift.
So while reading 2020 Forecasts for the Hurricane Season.
Remember they are forecasts.....
....they may change in real time.
They may verify... they may not.
Let's hope they do not because the forecasts are wicked.
Wicked in that all signs seem GO for a strong hurricane season.
Why you ask?
Showing five reasons below today.
I'll continue to list other reasons soon.
Today I'm posting graphics from 2 meteorologists.
And every day or two I'll post two more experts.
You can compare and contrast their forecasts.
Today I'm starting with Crown Weather and CSU.
Why those two?
Because I have always admired their forecasts.
I admire and respect many others.
I'll post them too over the next few weeks.
Today I'm listing 5 Factors to remember.
Again I'll post more factors in future posts.
1. El Nino is not expected to be a factor this year. Neutral or more likely La Nina conditions will exist and it is possible if not probable that La Nina may show up as we move into August and September. IF that happens, it would favor a more active, dangerous hurricane season.
Note No El Nino doesn't mean La Nina ... maybe it stays Neutral but La Nina is looking possible.
2. Sea Surface Temperature forecasts continue to be warmer in areas that would produce hurricanes.
3. Forecasts for areas in Africa that may have more rainfall than normal could reduce the impact of SAL (Saharan Dust) but remember that SAL predictions are always prone to error and seasonally it usually disappears at the worst time as we move towards late August and early September. While watching it reign in May and June and July we often end up with a plethora of headlines giving the general public a sense of a false reality that gets ripped out from under them when SAL begins to disappear at the worst time possible Currently SAL may me mitigated by moist conditions nearby in Africa. Think of this as being told you don't need to wear a "face mask" and then being told you "could if you want" then being told you will not be allowed in a store without one and then being told it's better to wear one when out in public around others. Again remember this ...things change and often they sometimes change fast.
4. Signs in the Indian Ocean show we will have a strong hurricane season. Why watch the Indian Ocean? Because what happens in the Indian Ocean impacts Africa and what happens in Africa directly begins to impact us as we move into the heart of the Hurricane Season.
5. The forecast is for a lack of Wind Shear across many areas for this coming Hurricane Season that would allow strong tropical waves to develop into hurricanes without being torn apart by shear. We often see incredibly formed tropical waves make it across the Atlantic and yet as they battle what is wind shear they succumb to the shear the way a young, seemingly healthy young football player on the field during practice collapses as mentioned previously. Very often a very moist, large, messy tropical wave turns into a poorly organized tropical storm and then finding a fast sweet spot develops into a hurricane closer to our side of the world. But strong shear or negative conditions can literally topple the named storm everyone is worried on the way a large, tall, improperly secured crane topples over when hit with stronger than expected winds.
Below is Hurricane Debby's NOAA report.
Wind shear suddenly strengthened.
And Hurricane Debby toppled over like a falling crane.
There's more to the story but this is the official one below.
This old forecast track shows why people were worried.
An image of Debby in her "better days" before...
...wind shear began to strengthen.
I mention this as even now..
Shear Forecasts are often iffy ...
...and often Shear develops fast.
Or wind shear suddenly disappears.
Wind shear forecasts favor a busy hurricane season.
During El Nino wind shear protects some areas.
Especially the Caribbean and the GOM.
This year we cannot rely on that wind shear to be there.
I'll give more reasons I am concerned on the 2020 Hurricane Season later as we move into May and the concern for early season storms forming before June 1st becomes a reality.
But for now the 5 factors listed above are what I want you to take away from today's blog.
Someone I leaned to trust and enjoy reading is Rob from www.crownweather.com that I commonly refer to as "Crown Weather" as I learned over time and across many avenues of social media (as we go way back) to appreciate his cautiousness and when he shows concern to take it seriously. In 2017, 2018 and 2019 his Pre Season Maps were spot on and he nailed the locations Hurricane Florence would threaten eventually landfall as well as Hurricane Michael months ahead of the peak of the hurricane season. The year that Maria and Irma traipsed across the Atlantic, slamming into islands in their path and scaring everyone on the East Coast and Florida he drew those possible tracks in his Pre-Season maps. It really doesn't get better than that for picking up on current and long term trends and applying them to predicting where hurricanes may track and make landfall.
www.crownweather.com is a pay service, you can write him and ask for payment or donation information but it's better than the average information you will find on Twitter, Instagram, your family WhatsApp Group or where ever you get your general information. He posts regularly online on Twitter with excellent information. Note the people on TV in your local viewing area do a great job but honestly they rarely veer away from the official NHC or the CSU forecast shown below and until a hurricane is headed directly towards your town their information is informative yet basic. When you want better information with more details sometimes you gotta pay for it or really know how to find it online.
The link to Rob on Twitter
@crownweather (easy to remember)
If you see this picture you have the right person.
Understand Rob is a very good writer.
A good communicator.
It's good for meteorologists to be able to ...
...clearly communicate information.
That's important.
I'm using a few of his images below.
When I said shear could be low....
.... that would be a problem.
If the forecast verifies.
Note the areas below in blue.
If shear is low there....
It means waves turn into named storms.
And are not blown apart by shear.
How strong they would get is a question.
But the potential is there for strengthening.
Again graphics from Crown Weather.
Below Average Wind Shear is not good.
It allows hurricanes to form.
Often those regions in the Carib have high wind shear.
The wind shear protects the Carib and ....
......inhibits then from strengthening.
This would favor storms that track West...
..... into Central America.
Or they could drift over the Yuctan...
...as storms often do.
Then strengthen in the GOM
Once in the GOM ..someone gets hit.
Understand?
@bobbistorm on Twitter for any questions.
Below we have "peak of the season"
Note this would favor Caribbean/GOM storms.
Also storms coming at Florida from many directions.
Storms such as Cleo that came up from Cuba.
Or any hurricane that hits from the ESE...
...heading WNW
Look at Cleo coming up from Cuba.
Then look at the graphic below.
It shows how that could happen.
Every hurricane is different.
Every year is different in some way.
The graphic below I've shown before.
Rob will fine tune it over time.
When you understand the shear problem shown above.
As well as where warm water may be.
Steering currents.
You will better understand the graphic below.
It shows areas of the coastline in danger.
In danger as per our early forecasts.
2020 has been a year of unusual events....
...that pop up fast suddenly.
Things change.
From Covid 19 to Tornadoes in the South.
So use it as a guide early on.
East Coast would be vulnerable.
Note below CSU shows this also.
And GOM is a concern.
The Caribbean is a high concern.
Note also CSU points this out below.
So moving on to the CSU report.
Lots of detail and more academic.
But you can understand if it you go slow.
And many of you here know your lingo.
Several important point are mentioned by Phil.
An old picture of Phil with Dr. Gray.
Phil carries on Dr. Gray's legacy.
He's older now but still has very youthful looks.
You can follow him on Twitter.
@philklotzbach
Graphics from the CSU forecast that I find particularly relevant to remember.
The first graph below shows you in bright red lines how this season's potential seems to be way above average for trouble, exceeding Climatology. Basically saying higher odds on it being stronger than most average seasons based on "climo" as we often refer to it. Generally climo wins out over hype and worry when watching tropical waves forming into hurricanes, but in sometimes forecasts are heaped high with positive factors vs negative factors and we all know this 2020 how we prefer negative results to positive ones so keep that in mind. You may read the whole report linked below to understand this graphic better, but you can look at it and see that the forecast for 2020 currently exceeds the normal climo probabilities.
Please refer to the link below and look for this graphic in the report towards the end of the long report. I say long in a good way as year back when I would carefully read Dr. Gray's report I would learn much from reading and studying the details. Sometimes the forecast verified all too well and other times such as in 1997 when the "Mother of All El Ninos" came out of nowhere much like today's Covid-19 and the forecast was a bust it ended up being a very slow hurricane season. But, whether the forecast verifies or is a bust or is somewhere in between the point of reading the long, detailed report is that you learn much on the whys and hows a season is impacted by specific factors and trust me you will know more than you knew before you took the time to read it. And, thanks to Covid-19 and our new world where many of us can't go to work or the hairdresser or the Mall or the movies or meet Aunt Dolly or Sally at our favorite dining spots we have a bit more down time and can read up and research topics we love to learn more about so if you got the time... sit down with a cup of coffee or tea or whatever you enjoy and read and learn. Spoiler alert...when you click on this image or go to the report it shows that all areas are at an enhanced risk this year but especially the East Coast 92% and the Caribbean 94% much higher than the average year. Also refer to his report as sometimes he includes the Florida Peninsular in the "East Coast" statistics so be sure what he means when he uses terminology that may not jive with your vision of the Hurricane Coast.
I'm concerned that the Year of Covid-19 could evolve into The Year of Deadly Hurricanes and that is not hype and no I cannot tell you if this will be the Bertha to get the name finally retired or Dolly will or won't be a Category 5. But what I can tell you is that this year's current forecast based on current conditions portends a deadly hurricane season for someone and we may have multiple deadly Major Hurricanes as we had when Irma and Maria came close together.
I am mentioning Irma because the sort of wild rush to evacuate Florida and the search for safe shelters will be severely negatively impacted by the ongoing Covid-19 crisis. How so? Well most of us are low on funds and even those who had money put away for an emergency have less money put away for an emergency. Many people are out of work, travel is discouraged and contact with people at rest stops or buying gas are now health concerns and as for food chain lines.... as I said earlier things change fast these days. We've been told food chains would not be impacted yet currently several chicken, pork and meat producers have had to close up because people tested positive. They will open up again in theory soon but at times our "food supply chain" may be impacted so keep that in mind and hopefully it will not be a factor.
We were told to stop "hoarding food" because the food chain lines will be fine. We were also told not to go out often, so we aren't so much hoarding as buying food that will last for several weeks before we buckle up into our hazmat suits or begin putting on our masks or gloves and our now every present hoodie covering our head and venturing out in search of pasta and tuna fish and whatever produce that we hope will last more than a week or two. Perhaps you are the type that isn't wearing a mask nor wearing gloves and going shopping as you were while trying to maintain a safe distance from people ...especially those who are coughing or who look sick.... you still may have to wait in line a long time come July or August to get into a store to buy hurricane supplies way longer than you normally do when you think "this is crazy" because what if we hit a peak again in August and stores limit shoppers and you may get online for your local Publix blocks away from the actual store. I'm not saying this will happen. I am saying this could happen and you MUST figure it into your Hurricane Season Preparation this year.
So if you are at the store this week buy an extra few tins of tuna and put them in a box and do not use them. Buy an extra peanut butter and hide it away the way you would a candy bar from your hungry teenagers. Buy an extra bottle of bleach or any disinfectant supplies you can get your hands on for the Hurricane Season. And, I hate to say this but it is very possible that this virus goes on deep into 2021 as Pandemics similar to the Spanish Flu don't just disappear overnight when it's convenient for us or when the calendar year changes so if you don't use the tuna by November 30th, 2020 feel free to transfer your Hurricane Supplies to your Covid-19 supplies.
I'll continue to show different predictions for this Hurricane Season and add layers of perspective for you to think on and research yourself over the next month. I'll talk on Analog Years given by many including the years that I believe are Analog Years and show old hurricanes from those years. Thanks for letting me rant yesterday as I needed to get that off my chest and be able to move on to being serious about the Hurricane Season because to be honest we really need to take this Hurricane Season seriously because we've seen from recent tornadoes, severe weather, hail and earthquakes Mother Nature is not in quarantine or socially distancing and she has ripped people's homes that they were staying home in apart and tossed them wildly off their foundations in deadly tornadoes. That's heartbreaking but it should be a stark reminder to you that not only can't you reason with hurricane season you can't reason with Mother Nature either.
Be Safe.... BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Wednesday, Day 17 Since Being Home Since My Son Grounded Me ;) Florida Gov Finally Issues Shelter in Place. What Is Normal Anymore?
True Confessions Time.
Yes, I watch him every morning.
I had issues with him in the beginning.
He definitely got with the program.
He's been a calm, reasonable voice.
"No one knows for sure when this will be over"
So true.
People hate the unknown....
...people hate living in limbo.
I've been home for 17 days.
And, honestly I'm fine.
I can deal with reading and being online.
Love researching, writing, cooking.
My oldest son grounded me.
I suffer from asthma....
...I'm prone to bronchitis.
So I have to be more careful.
Otherwise.. I'm fine.
Glad my last trip was Seattle...
It was a beautiful trip.
But now I'm home, staying in.
Doing my thing.
We all have to do what we have to do...
That's the reality of right now.
This minute, this day, this week.
As for me I'm blogging...
...blogging as in writing a long blog.
Note shortly I will talk on the tropics again.
We are 2 months until Hurricane Season.
Hate to mention that but you can't hide forever.
As I'm typing I'm multi-tasking obviously as I'm watching the Governor with the sound down turning it up here and there when he says something very compelling; his images and graphs kind of tell the story without the sound. I'm listening and trying to pay attention to a class I have on the phone with friends in Crown Heights on Chassidus and we are saying prayers for people we know who are in the hospital battling the most severe effects of Covid-19. And we are staying connected as best as we can during a time that isn't an easy time yet it's a time that as long as we have our health we can cope with not running around to all the places we are so used to running around to when living a normal life. And, yet this has become slowly normal too even though it's not a normal we wished for but we are stuck with for the time being.
I have a friend that posted this on Facebook the other day and he's not one to post very often, but when he has something to say he always nails it. This is so true and it's something really worth thinking on while we are secluded from our normal routine to realize that my ex-husband mentioned recently that despite living in busy NYC he can suddenly hear the sounds of birds and Spring vs the sounds of traffic that drown out the beauty of the world that hear often in Raleigh. And, yet even here in Raleigh on my quiet street I can still here some traffic off in the distance usually but not anymore. Some people like the sound of traffic but when you realize you don't hear it suddenly it somehow hits home. In Wuhan the ever present smog and pollution disappeared and blue skies were seen for the first time in no one can remember when after they shut down the area to fight the illness that has traveled around the world.
Things I've learned or remembered or thought on over the last month or so.
When Romaine Lettuce begins to go bad... you can cut the darker part off and it lasts longer.
When you cook a huge turkey breast, you can save the large bones and use them to make soup.
Old Coffee in the Coffeemaker makes great Iced Coffee once put in the fridge.
Pick up the phone and call a friend and hear her voice rather than type fighting with auto correct.*
Plan out my day carefully because time lately moves fast and when you look up it's 2 PM...
We've thought back on our lives and remembered the good and made lists of what we'd like to fix.
I really can't wait to go to Myrtle Beach again or sit and talk with a friend at Starbucks.
The list goes on and on.
*My friend and I raised our kids while talking on the phone nonstop all day on a phone with a long cord that was 25 feet long and got caught on dining room chairs, children and toys often. Our kids got used to the fact that we were on the phone nonstop talking about "the school" or hurricanes or projects we were working on for a group called Neshei Chabad that was a Women's Organization. Somehow with all our kids and work responsibilities we were responsible for putting on all the programs in South Florida from classes, trips to visit old people in nursing homes to fundraising fashion shows in mansions on the water with backdrops you see in fashion magazines to cooking for older people who were shut in recently released from the hospital but their children who lived far away called some Rabbi on Miami Beach who called us to ask us if we could send over broth every day because they could not eat solid food yet and yes we did and to be honest looking back I'm proud of the good things we did... while talking on the telephone all day on long corded phones while raising our children. Seems I was born to multi-task.
Don't get me wrong we were not Saints but we did good deeds and we had a lot of fun laughing at things that happened while trying to get things done as life sometimes just gets in the way in the craziest of ways when you live in Miami. We had planned a large program for the World Premier of a book just being released by an author that many wanted to read with a large meet and greet at a local Synagogue and then a smaller breakfast to discuss raising children to be held outside at a beautiful home someone always lent us by the Bay with a huge lawn to set up chairs and tables and........while arranging this.... after paying for all the things needed Channel 7 News put out a bulletin that there was an Encephalitis Alert and people should wear dark clothes and stay indoors. I think it was 1990... who remembers? We looked at each other in terror than laughed hysterically until we had tears in our eyes. What else could possibly happen next? Spoiler alert... it was lifted before the night of the large program with 300 people attending and luckily it wasn't hurricane season; life in tropical Miami.
I was once sitting at the water's edge in the Florida Keys at a small motel my friend owned watching an Ibis wander through the mangroves, dangling my feet in the water and this huge old plane appeared out of nowhere flying low... very low over where I was sitting enjoying the quiet moment in nature and then I realized it wasn't a scene in some old TV show I used to watch but ... they were spraying mosquito poison everywhere the way they did when I was a little girl before they stopped spraying for mosquitoes all the time because they found out it wasn't much healthier for humans than it was for the mosquitoes that seemed immune to it anyway. When the cars were not covered in mosquito spray with ingredients now outlawed from use they were covered in gritty red African Dust aka SAL and no the Chamber of Commerce in Miami never advertised that when Jackie Gleason said Miami was the Greatest Place on Earth. Life went on..
But we haven't seen anything like this in many moons and generally only seen in the movies. Jim Williams was talking the other day on how similar this is to the movie Contagion. Many online have mentioned that and wondered how that could be. It's easy in that whether you realize it or not people are always and forever researching how to battle Germ Warfare or the accidental release of a germ that is being studied into the general population that is prone to mutating. Really I took two different classes in college on Germ Warfare for my degree in International Relations; one was a compare and contrast on the reality of that occurring vs the release of nuclear materials or a nuclear accident and the other class was in description of the most deadly designed viruses and how it would impact the public both financially and politically. Expanding on that last class the most dangerous was one that would impact the lungs and attack older people thereby taking out the structure and fabric of society both economically and more so politically. Basic classes for people in various fields of study such as International Relations. Haven't seen the movie, it's on my short to do list though my husband did a while back when I was out of town as normally I hate scary movies but this is one I do want to watch.
So my friend who was going shopping anyway bought some groceries for me carefully... brought it here leaving it outside. I watched as she sprayed all the paper bags with disinfectant and we talked from a distance me inside her way outside wearing her mask and gloves and it was good to see her and as she left she said "can't wait for us to be able to just go out to Starbucks and sit and talk" and yeah that would be normal and nice. Then I put the stuff out onto the balcony as it's cool today and tonight, carefully washed down a few products to put away for Passover and there's some lettuce drying on the counter on a towel for my husband's salad. I'm pretty sure I got all the soap off the various produce. Hmnnn Is this normal?
My friend in the hospital went home last night, actually I was friends with her mother and my aunt but now I follow her on Instagram account Busy in Brooklyn where she shares incredible recipes. My friend Devorah Leah who lives in Crown Heights who usually teaches our phone class is still in the hospital but said to be stronger today and hopefully she will be home for Shabbos before Friday Night. Then my daughter sent a message that our friend Yudi's mother in Crown Heights was taken to the hospital and the list goes on. I spoke to my best friend at 2 PM or 2:45 after I got done disinfecting everything and taking a shower and we talked on life and compared notes and well no more long 25 foot cords but still laughing and talking and being honest with each other and that's good.
So from my house to yours... I wish you bananas and strawberry jam and apples and candy and that you and your loved ones live through this and we all get back to sitting at Starbucks talking on life and complaining we don't like the new straws :)
Wednesday, April 1st. 60 days until the hurricane season and I will talk on that soon as I have much to say but I don't want to yell "FIRE!" in a crowded theater which I do feel like talking on how bad the hurricane season could be. Hopefully, by then the curve will have flattened and medication will be found that is 100% effective and we can find a vaccine and we can all get back to hugging and going to parties and sitting at Starbucks taking pictures of our favorite new drink.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps... Life does go on, it evolves... what's normal changes and then something else become normal. Having to talk holding a phone with a cord (even a 25 foot cord...) kind of tied you down. Then we were online on AOL and we never left the computer because you couldn't take the IM with you. Then we were able to talk on Text Messages so we were able to go to the store and have a more normal life and then.......our phones became our computers and then ...well you get the idea. What is normal changes often but still here typing, writing, thinking out loud and talking to my friends here, there and everywhere.
Good old movie... watched it on TV when I was little on one of those channels that showed old movies over and over and I bet it was great on Broadway. But we can stay home and watch old movies and songs and scenes and plays online while hiding from the world while staying home and staying safe.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
