A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, November 02, 2021
Wanda. Yellow Circle Seeds an EPAC Storm. Kind of the Story of the Year in the SW Caribbean
The hard to see red symbol is Wanda, mixed into that whole cloud mess on the other side of the ocean. It's also kind of hard to notice the yellow on the edge of a beach abiout to jump into the Eastern Pacific that is at 0% chances in the Atlantic.
But if you move on over to the Eastern Pacific part of the NHC Main Pages you will see our little X is healthier and is being given 30% chances of development in there. Actually another yellow circle pops up there on the 5 day as seen below.
This has really been the story of the year on many levels and will be researched by many to see why the East Pacific received so many of the low, westbound waves that normally potentially dangerous SW Caribbean storms that gave them a longer season than normal. And, when I say that I mean normally as the Atlantic goes into high gear the East Pac slows down, there's a normal ebb and flow of energy and yet this year the seedlings for the dangerous SW Caribbean Storms all slid across the isthmus into the Pacific.
In general the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season was either STORMY WILD or soooo slow. It had a sputtering sort of nature where everything formed in groups and you can see that by the graphic above. June and early July were busy, whereas later in July and August it was not. Late August and September were busy, though many were "shorties" that barely lasted yet did pump up the number of actual storms we had even if most of you cannot remember their name. Since the beginning of August it's been quiet. Note if you take away all the blue dots and only look at the orange dashes you'll see we really didn't have such a busy season. It's really a matter of prespective. Quality over quantity and in this case we lucked out as Larry and his friend Sam both stayed out in the Atlantic putting on a colorful show on the satelitte imagery but not thrashing our beaches or drowning out cities so for that we are grateful. It reminds me a lot of how morse code works, dot, dot, dot, dash, dot, dot ...well you get that if you ever learned Morse Code which I did but I do not really remember; a cute neighbor boy was involved who wanted to ran cables from our houses to each other so we could "talk" when we were young. (He was probably a boy scout now that I think about it)
I digress... because there really isn't much to talk about. If I go to Windy.com I'm prone to watch the images for cold weather and who is going to get some snow.
Why does the blue (really cold air)
stop at the Mason Dixie?
Kentucky gets it but not Tennessee?
Just odd things always amaze me on graphics like this.
But winter is coming.
Tropical storms are not.
So have a great day.
Malls have Christmas decorations up...
.... no real crowds where I live.
But the msuic is nice.
TJ Maxx is a winter wonderful.
Pink Flamingoes are in storage.
It's the sign of the times!!
Not proofing........
....I have a headache.
Wish I was in Key West this morning!
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps... Where are you spending the holidays?
Thanksgiving blends into Chanukah (early) this year.
Christmas... flows into New Years Eve.
I know... we haven't even eaten turkey yet for Thanksgiving.
2021 has been on Zoom Zoom time.......so do you have a clue?
Christmas Island - Jimmy Buffett.wmv By the way the locals used to call the small island to the West of Key West, but they developed it and renamed it Sunset Island. But it's really a place...........there's also another one, we have lots of names locals use for things down on the rock.
Father's Day Weekend. No Hurricanes Threatening Your Favorite Place So Enjoy It. Tropics Quiet. Do What You Love. Find Someone or Some Place to Love. Enjoy It. 2020 Hurricane Season May Rearrange It So Get Out There Now!
Two things I want to touch on briefly today and they are rivers in North Carolina that are peaking from heavy rains going into the Hurricane Season setting up a potential disasterous problem should we get hit by a large, wet hurricane this year. I say that because not all hurricanes are wet but they as they are often dangerous in different ways. Andrew was dry as a bone, yet it rearranged the landscape and was deadly, disasterous and memorable. The 1926 Hurricane in Miami was huge, wet and disastrous. Years ago I had a theme going that no two hurricanes were alike and no two seasons were alike; think I talked on Cabbage Patch Dolls a lot after being inspired by an incredibly unique, drop dead gorgeous guy. Inspiration is what it is ya know.
But it's true and huge Hurricane Floyd that whooshed past Miami on it's way to North Carolina delivered a knock out punch to some communities as did Fran, Matthew and Florence as well as a multitude of others I could bore you with but if you are interestered buy the Barnes book on Norch Carolina Hurricanes. 1996 was the year of stroll on by South Florida, do not stop and keep going to North Carolina as they all headed towards Mother Nature's favorite hurricane destination somewhere between Morehead City and Wilmington. If it was totally up to me I'd move to Morehead City for a number of reasons as the place just calls to me. The Bogue is more beautiful than Biscayne Bay and that says a lot. Feel free to Google the words "Bouge" and "North Caroliona" but I'm just saying that this pattern of huge, big, wet hurricanes coming on years when they already had historic rainfall is setting up for a possible problem and it concerns me. Can't shake it really and as everyone talks on 1995 because "look how busy it is" it really has more in common in my mind with the 1996 set up than the 1995 intensely caffeinated hurricane season. Again time will tell, no two hurricane seasons are alike even if they are similar.
Next, I'm concerned with all the distractions going on currently that people will dismiss the Hurricane Season because of the pandemnic and the protests and obsessing too much on CHAZ in Seattle (that's for my son in case he's reading) and no I don't mean Sonny Bono's son but the point here is while debating on which style mask to wear if you have to wear one or where you want to go as soon as "this is over" or the Presidential Election I don't want to touch at all ... people are distracted, tired and there is this sense of denial that "this can't happen" because we are too busy and honestly Mother Nature doesn't care about how tired you are or how wet you are (meteorologically) or how exhausted you are or who has Corona or who doesn't Mother Nature does what Mother Nature does and when the water is warm and the shear is forecast to be low and strong healthy waves move off of Africa in a season such as this one they will most likely go into the Caribbean under the HUMONGOUS High and head towards @icyclone's Hurricane Cottage in Pass Christian that has seen it's number of hurricanes already or they will find a weakness in the High and slide up along the East Coast scaring everyone and slamming into North Carolina. Oh, yeah we can have some nice ocean spinners as every hurricane season has dancing Fish Storms in the Atlantic.
So do you thing and prepare. Make a plan or at least a list and don't lose it. Send it to your Gmail or post it on the wall somewhere, do not write it on an old shopping list pad or in a note book where you forget it. Update the list as needed, especially with regards to any medicines you may need such as asthma, allergy or anxiety as this has been that sort of year already and I don't see any reason for it to end anytime soon just because we want it to end.
Note one of my favorite magazines that I tend to read online knows the Saharan Dust Outbreak is normal and nothing more. It's up there with Our State that is one of the best written magazines anywhere with much heart and feeling for this region of the world. You should check it out, and they do weather articles often. Good, honest hype free article below about SAL.
Mike has added a great link to his page and I don't just mean my Water Vapor Loop but a link on SAL that moves faster than your vacuumn cleaner. Yes, I am in a mood today. You're observant. Moving on along. There are many great sites online and you can Google them, but if you check Mike's site out often to see what's happening scroll down on the left side and you will find this site and the ever popular lightning site. Trust me I've stood out in a thunderstorm checking that site to see where it's moving, what's going on and waiting for the next big streak of lightning to make me go "WOW" and then check the site to see if it registered. Okay, not totally exaggerating there.
So as for me I'm going to take a walk or dance a bit for exercise or really who knows. I'm in one of those moods. Father's Day is coming and I'm putting together a package for my husband who is a Father, Stepfather and a Grandfather as well as a generally all round good guy who puts up with my love for weather and my moods and is always ready to jump in the car and go somewhere because I want to be at the beach when a storm is coming in or drive up and down the streets of Beaufort South Carolina so I can tell him over and over how much I love the Low Country and the South. But we are kind of grounded these days as we haven't taken any real road trips "because Corona" but at some point we will but for now my home base is Raleigh and it's not a bad place to be. The Flea Market isn't open :( but the Farmers Market is and it is what it is until things change.
Have a wonderful weekend and hope you find something to do that you enjoy and if you can't go travel to see your father, children or grandchildren or don't have any and even the dog is too lazy to want to go for a long walk then find something you enjoy and do it. All men matter! Find an Uncle or a Brother to call up and tell them how wonderful they are even if you have to lie a little, because really as much as you love your siblings they can drive you crazy more than any one else but you still love them like crazy). If you are an only child without children and sadly your father is no long with us and you have no Uncles well look in the mirror and tell youreself "DAMN I'M INCREDIBLE" and then go buy yourself something be it a candy bar at the dollar store or a red, weather radio on Amazon. You deserve it! We all do. Then wait til this is over so we can party like 1925!
Much love ....
... Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps Hurricane History is Fran from the very busy 1996 Hurricane Season.
If you are still here, this is the bonus round ... the Extra Credit Present.
My daughter Dina loved this show and sometimes we'd watch it and it was very her and me in ways. I always loved the scenery and neither of us like to wait for things but over time you learn to wait when you have to but it turns out it was filmed in North Carolina in one of the areas here I love the most. I also love New Bern, but I'm digressing and while I'm digressing Oriental is beautiful too. The funny part about it is that it wasn't filmed in New England, but North Carolina. See Hollywood is like that it's lies and illusions pieced together, edited and packaged with slick soundtracks and sappy love stories but in truth you gotta go out there and find your own happy ending and if you can't find that find a place that resonates and that you love and then you will be happy. Well, unless a hurricane comes cruising at you like a cruise missle and no I am not going to show a Tom Cruise scene.
UPDATED! Tornadoes in the South - Snow Storms - Winter Storms - Snow Threatens Peach Trees Hit by Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas. Women in Meteorology.
Our power lines are under these two massive trees... debris is basically everywhere. Sirensare still blaring everywhere. The cliche of it sounds like a freight train coming is no joke. #tornadopic.twitter.com/lXJZX6Lrsz
The death toll could climb as they are still looking for people who are missing and going through the debris. This evening is far from over as for wicked weather and even more wicked cold will arrive later this week. I've said it over and over because the pattern seems to be stuck and severe weather keeps training over the same area in the Florida Panhandle that was slammed by Hurricane Michael up into areas that flooded from Florence. This does not bode well for early season development this hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico and off the SE coast when Subtropicals are prone to form close to the coast. Just saying it's something to remember.
I've been following on Twitter all afternoon.
Out shopping, raining but not heavy.
But the heavy weather is on the way.
Currently down in the Deep South.
The same area affected by Hurricanes Michael and Florence...
Mother Nature is kicking off Tornado Season in the South today!
Mother Nature isn't taking any prisoners tonight.
Cell phone towers down.
Saloons ripped apart.
From the Twitter feed on SpaghettiModels
Showing this as it's a great place to go to get instant weather news.
If you aren't on Twitter and are old school...
...it's a great resource.
This is as typical as it gets when Spring comes early.
And then Winter sneaks back in...
Cold diving air mixing with warm humid air.
Bamn! Twisters form.
look at that flow of moisture...
Gulf of Mexico Moisture.
Keep reading.
I'll update later in real time.
* * *
I posted this picture on February 17th....
... a beautiful pink array of blossoms on a nearby tree.
Below is out my window this morning.
Note the gray, white skies are a constant.
The maple tree has new baby red leaves on it.
Signs of Spring but it feels like Winter.
Where we are today with regard to weather.
Winter Weather to be exact!
Note how low the snow dips down into Arkansas.
All sliding East.
And there's another system behind it!
A lot of weather warnings there.
Red alert day for many places.
Being honest here, trying to watch national weather is at times hard when you are between seasons in the Carolinas and only really want to know one or two things.
What time is it going to start to rain today?
Is there any chance for snow flakes on the tail end of the next system?
Extra Credit: Is this going to mess up the fruit trees that started to bloom already?
Cantore brought it up also on TWC.
It's worth remembering those trees will be wet from rain.
Then cold, cold temperatures blow in on a strong wind.
Perhaps there is even a chance of a drop of snow?
Who knows?
Mother Nature seems to work in real time this year.
GFS may be beating the EURO with this one.
The local weather people have been talking on this or more so worrying on this as a possibility. Trees they be a blooming. My maple tree is unfurling it's leaves inch by inch, day by day, still in the red mode and it always amazes me it turns bright green eventually; kind of like those blonde hair little boys I had whose hair turned almost black as they got in their twenties.
Wednesday morning we have a forecast low of 21 and that's going to take a bite out of some of those early blooming trees. When people plant early and are told it's too soon they were warned. But the blooming of trees early after warm weather is something that cannot be controlled and it has happened this year after a very warm February and now with a cold March coming into areas already hit hard by Hurricane Florence may be hit again by Mother Nature on the rampage with freezing temperatures hurting the peach crop. It's not just the peace crop but areas under the gun for severe weather today and freezing temperatures this week are in peach country.
Again it's not all about whether New York City gets snow or if Boston is snow satisfied ... it's a big country we live in and every place has their own wishes for the weather they want and concerns they will get the weather they don't want. My daughter wants the snow to stop and for things to warm up however moving up to Pomona Heights area vs living down in Bayswater on the water has changed her weather watching from watching the high tides that flooded her street to "how much snow am I getting?" and this girl has been watching weather for years and years. So obviously I watch her and whoever she likes weather wise... https://www.instagram.com/dinadeehoops/
So Dina said I have to follow Amy Freeze...
...so I did as Dina knows weather.
No we cannot cancel the weather.
The EURO may lose to the GFS.
This may get interesting.
(Wow some huge bird just flew past my window..
...it was white and huge, hold on.
remember to wear coat when going outside...)
Good link to Bernie Rayno on models and forecasts.
This is a must read article about a woman who went into meteorology early on and had to balance family needs and her own need for a degree in meteorology. Motherhood is wonderful, really, but it ends up always being a balancing act trying to be a good mother and following your own dreams. Women like her rarely get movies made about them and rarely does anyone hear about them but they were brave, stubborn and followed their dreams. We should hear more about them.
My daughter Dina who I've mentioned watches different women meteorologists I rarely hear about and she of course watches them on Instagram. My daughter had dyslexia when young that she did overcome and eventually attained a Bachelors Degree from Touro University with her younger sister back in 2012. They are both awesome, but no teacher in elementary school or middle school ever expected Dina to go to college let alone graduate and she did so with great grades. She had a dream, but more so she had a goal and she didn't give up. How many people reading this have a dream but don't even try pursuing it or make only lists of reasons they could never do that? I never broke her spirit for good or bad. She dropped out of high school in the 9th grade and went to work for the principal's wife as a teacher's aid in her preschool. She traveled the world, the country to music festivals and went to Venice on her 25th birthday with her best friend because she wanted to.... and she went back to college after getting an online high school degree because her mother (me) begged her to and I may have tricked her into it but hey she's got a diploma! To be honest I thought she'd switch schools and maybe go to Art School, but no she stayed with college studying psychology and art getting one of the first degrees from Touro with an emphasis on multi-media art. My kids, all of them, always inspire me and trying to explain how during the quiet off season when no tropical waves are rolling across the Atlantic and forecast to get a name and become hurricanes. Welcome to my "off season" here...
And because I did follow Amy Freeze
In a serendipity kind of way I learned more today.
What a story.
I cannot believe anyone birthed 16 children.
And I've birthed many so for me to be shocked...
...and yet despite the large family she kept going.
What a story really.
Please follow Amy Freeze.
My daughter Dina is right indeed.
Down in Carolina watching snow forecasts for up the coast.
How close will it get.
I said the other day I expect Roxboro will get snow flakes.
Watching the models and the loops.
Women can do anything.
I bought my granddaughter Olivia a tee shirt that says that.
But mothers have to work twice as hard at least.
Life is balance in ways.
I'm sure it's hard for men too...
But they don't have to go to college ...
with a baby kicking in their tummy.
Men don't have to fight off morning sickness...
...men don't have to deal with postpartum depression.
Another weather person Dina loves below.
And I saw this today about a young woman...
...following her dream.
Happy to he the "weekend meteorologist" in Panama City.
Panama City got Hurricane Michael.
It also got rain all winter.
Wondering on what this hurricane season will bring.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
