A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, December 03, 2019
December... Thanksgiving Over As Is the Hurricane Season of 2019. Traveling Back to the Carolinas Today...
Wondering if Mike makes a Winter Weather Tee Shirt?
Hmnnn.. may ask him.
My favorite place to go to know what's going on in the weather!
Getting quality time when I could with who I could.
Blogging from the road today.
It's December.
I bought LED Chanukah stars in Target for my window.
Going to see if they work back in Raleigh ;)
The Hurricane Season is in the Rear View Mirror.
Well on our side of the world.
It's been a while I know. I spent the last week in sunny, South Florida hanging out with my kids, family, friends and taking in all my favorite places. Today we are continuing this trek back up the coast to more of my favorite places. A new favorite place showed up on the play list last night when we met my son, daughter-in-law and the adorable Olivia and Milo in St. Augustine dining by the harbor all lit up in twinkling lights at night. Beautiful. Writing this from Jacksonville, but by the time you read it we will have gotten back on the road Northbound.
I guess I missed all the hype about the Winter Storm of early December (E name on TWC?) and pretty sure it will be really remembered as the Thanksgiving Travel Storm Mess of 2019. If you were flying somewhere along the Northern rim of the country you may have been stuck in the airport somewhere, but driving in the Southeast the highways were blue, beautiful and sunny.
Thanksgiving Weekend snow may not happen often.
But really not that rare.
The truth is a Winter Storm that impacts the Northeast and Chicago messing up travel is not that rare a thing as if it was in Tampa Florida or even Atlanta... that would be huge news. I heard Cranky is missing on Twitter, hope he finds his way back to our neck of the woods. I've been offline most of this trip just enjoying life and living in the minute. The weather in Miami was beautiful, sometimes cool at night but not blazing hot during the day and the humidity was way down. My son is moving from his apartment that makes you feel like you are in Savannah with the fountain down below up town towards Aventura and the rest of the family.
So I had a long, espresso and said goodbye to my favorite breakfast spot this year when in Florida. New favorites are nice and will pop up this coming year I'm sure. We had a tropical Thanksgiving by my In Law's pool in the backyard where the frying turkey set off the yard's fire alarm system ... the bird was fine and the sprinklers quickly shut down. The house and adjacent Bird Farm (parrots) were fine, the ground just got a bit wet which was fine and the frying turkey barely noticed the fuss.
So what else happened this weekend?
Josh got to chase a cyclone!
Much to be thankful for there.
DaBuh closed the 2019 Hurricane Season out.
Check that off the To Do List.
I'll blog on it once back in Raleigh.
The truth is it was all about Dorian.
Jim Williams wrote up an excellent report.
Note he was on the money totally this year.
All his top places he forecast would get hit...
...got hit so I'd listen to him carefully every year.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Seems we are good when we have winter in all the right places, sunshine in Miami and storms with awesome cores Hurricane Man to chase ... For me I'm chasing really good coffee and an awesome pecan bun for lunch today!!
Enjoy the Weekend. NHC Watching 2 Areas with Low Yellow Chances. It's Just a Matter of Time Before Something Forms... Til Then... Enjoy the Weekend. Check Back Monday ;)
The NHC Main Page is sort of a Maze ...
...an interactive game we play.
From June 1st to November 30th.
Area in the Yucatan down low on probabilities.
Never believed in the westbound system myself.
As I've said I'm watching for Mid October myself.
Generally if something is going to happen...
....that's the watch time frame.
As always late in the season we have Mid Atlantic Systems.
But when you click on the main screen for Day 2.
You get this satellite imagery below.
That tells the real story.
And addendum to that is my video below.
Lots to look at as it's not cloudless.
But nothing impending about to come together.
Have a wonderful weekend enjoying the cooler air in the South as we wait to see what happens in the tropics, weather wise in general as we wonder On #Halloween and wait for the State Fair in #NC @NCStateFair hurricane season not over but on hiatus this weekend pic.twitter.com/g1xAPyzxWu
Winter On the Way Out... Spring Not Totally Here ... Hurricane Season in the Wings. Good Women Meteorologist to Follow... Amy Freeze
Adrian Linares is really good to follow online!
I'm wanting to write something about this set of storms, including the much awaited last one in this series that many are watching on models while dreaming of the Great March Super Storm of 1993 as others are dreaming on tropical waves. I don't like to hype and I don't write this blog just to get clicks as much as to write on things that are worth warning people about and giving a measure of explanation and a little bit of entertainment along the way.
Listening to Country today and that's good. I mostly enjoy listening to country while in NY while driving through the Boro Park section of Brooklyn while blasting Nash Country (one of the best Country Radio Stations in the country) (yeah I did that twice on purpose) and okay I am a bit silly today officially..
It's a big country and everyone is watching their own little piece of paradise and so everyone has their own priorities. I live in the Carolinas when I am not home in Florida so my thoughts go to tropical weather along with severe weather faster than watching to see how much snow is going to be dumped on South Dakota. But this is a huge system and where you live means a lot as to your own concerns.
That's a lot of rain falling over the next five days.
And may I add in this reminder.......
... snow melt and rain = Spring Floods.
Maybe not this week but it's coming.
It's a long range concern I've had.
More weather for Florida and the Southeast.
As the flow from the GOM just goes on and on.
And I do think it will go on as we move towards May.
......and you surfed this would have your attention.
This was two days ago he posted this.
He's always got his eye on the tropics.....
Far out.
Close in.
It's all on the table for discussion.
My problem with the big winter storm is this...
...I'm tired of it.
Cranky has nailed this with the following statement.
Rinse and Repeat Pattern.
Gotta tell you it's gets boring after a while.
Especially when some try to HYPE every storm.
It's called Winter.
If something turns into a Superstorm.....
...that's history.
Every Tom, Dick and Harry that TWC is selling...
... are just rinse, repeat
It gets boring after a while.
Gotta good beat.
It's weather.
It's happening-ish.
Waiting for that big closer.
You know when they bring the new storm in at the end.
Of course if Boston gets SNOW they win again.
Everyone wants snow.
Everyone on the EAST coast that is...
Seattle and Minnesota are so done with snow.
Yes, it's that time of year.
Snow people get desperate .....
..hurricane people get snarky.
The in between time...
Winter in the rear view mirror.
Hurricane Season down the road.
And storm chasers are on the road.
This is there time of year.
Yes Virginia we ARE going to have a Tornado Season this year.
You'll soon wish it was over if the trend continues.
And what do I think?
I think I'm tired of an endless progression of no neck winter storms slamming into the West Coast with fury and dumping snow up where it belongs and teasing people in the South, Mid Atlantic and Northeast with snow and then wimping out in less than a blaze of glory.
So many things you can learn from Tennessee Williams. That man was a master of words, drama and not a drop of mediocrity anywhere near him. And, he knew Key West too and knew where he wanted to live enough to move his house cross town to the lot he where he wanted to live. You learn there are times to keep your mouth shut and not tell secrets and there are times when you know you have had enough and hear the "click" and sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do. Elizabeth Taylor was born to act in Tennessee Williams dramas.
Yes The Weather Channel can name them anything they want and trot them out to try and get ratings but it has not been a winter of incredible storms to remember and most likely the early one in November will be the matching bookend to the one that will happen in late March or even April. Mother Nature has a way of snapping back and trying to correct an imbalance but she is moving on to Severe Weather Season in the Plains and the Deep South as deep Gulf of Mexico Moisture rises up into the heartland and slams into descending mediocre but cold enough cold fronts to cause trouble along many river cities. And those rivers will rise as we move later into Spring and snow melting along the cities along the Mississippi River and it's many tributaries will meet up with Spring rains and the forecast I'm making is that means floods. I hate to say that but it's about as much a given as mud slides in California after fires during an El Nino.
I'll talk on El Nino another time, today this is about this week's multi-faceted Winter Storm system.
I'll update tomorrow.
I think the Gulf of Mexico will produce and deliver a few early Tropical named Systems and areas off the coast of the Florida Georgia Line will produce Subtropicals that play peek a boo with South Carolina. Yes Fishing I'm talking about you :) I really need to do a road trip bad. But a good road trip hitting all the right places sooner rather than later.
So buckle up everyone because Mother Nature is trying to hit you one more time with a winter storm and then we can move on to packing up the winter clothes, boots and doing a real Spring Cleaning!
Gosh that girl can sing.
Last but not LEAST...
WHAT IS GOING ON WITH EARTHQUAKES AND FLORIDA?
Florida Georgia Line indeed....
Mike (who I should lead with but the ending is important!)
I learned about this from Mike.
Not Dutchsince (Quake Icon some people love)
But Mike from Spaghetti Models.
Thus proving my point.
All meteorologists and closet geologists...
...and vice versa!
My brother constantly sends me links to Mike.
It's kind of cute in an endearing annoying way.
:)
Baby Brothers ...what can I say?
Yes, I follow Mike....
...I've followed Mike for more years than I want to admit.
Sometimes Mike follows me ;)
Hurricane Season is coming.
And it seems the area hit by Hurricane Michael...
...affected by tornadoes is being hit by mild earthquakes.
When you're hot you're hot...
It's an active part of the planet it seems in all ways.
Snow in ENC .. Snow Fell on New Bern That Saw Flooding from Hurricane Florence. Twisters Over Towns That Suffered From Hurricane Michael. Women in Meteorology
Going to keep this relatively short today. I'm humbled by the power Mother Nature can deliver repeatedly to the same area with different types of storms in six months worth of time in different seasons. When you move past the dramatic scenes of waves crashing onto the beaches of North Carolina and the flooding of New Bern there is a deeper malaise that Hurricane Florence dealt that many do not hear about that and that was an economic blow to the agriculture industry in North Carolina. And, again inland beyond the landfall of Hurricane Michael in the Florida Panhandle Mother Nature dealt a strong blow to the farmers and their crops from destroying Pecan Trees to peanuts, cotton and pretty much everything else grown in the rich fertile soil of the Deep South. Again it takes a good fifteen years for new pecan trees to give a good crop so a good decade after everything is all patched up, rebuilt and often gentrified near landfall areas inland take a long term beating.
That is a picture from after Hurricane Michael.
Looks very much like pictures Monday morning after the Tornadoes.
To be honest I prefer Hurricanes to Tornadoes.
I prefer Hurricanes to Earthquakes.
I definitely prefer Hurricanes to Flash Floods.
Hurricanes give you some lead time...
.... I like options and the chance to prepare or run.
People in Lee County on Sunday had 9 minutes warning.
And that was if they heard the warning.
Children died as well as grandparents, parents, people.
Not all the bodies have been identified.
The worst of the tornadoes was indeed an EF-4.
I said it probably was and it was indeed.
That signature of devastation screamed EF-4.
Hurricane Michael made landfall as a Category 4.
I showed this yesterday.
The South is no stranger to wicked weather.
But it's not exactly Tornado Alley.
This morning it snowed in New Bern.
A pretty light snow dusting the Spring flowers.
Just a dusting but snow in Eastern North Carolina.
It happens but it doesn't happen often.
Snow falling in New Bern NC.
One of my favorite towns ...
... that sadly Hurricane Florence flooded several months back.
In one year they saw snow and flooding.
Hurricanes and late season winter storms.
I'm sure they'd rather see light frozen precipitation ...
...than flooding rain from a hurricane.
Big snowflakes were mixing in earlier at the office! We’d love to see your #snowpics and videos too! Share them with us and let us know when, where, and how much #snow has fallen in your neighborhood #ncwxpic.twitter.com/nZmZw5Gqjd
— NWS Newport/Morehead (@NWSMoreheadCity) March 5, 2019
This bugs me.
Patterns exist in weather.
A weather footprint tends to stick around in the mud.
It's common to see some areas be hit by back to back hurricanes.
Florida was stuck in a pattern in 2004 and 2005 as an example.
Tracks varied some but kind of traced over the same places.
The hurricane seasons of 1954 and 1955 is another example.
Tracks across the East Coast and the Carolinas.
So watching patterns that seem stuck.
And will be talking on hurricane season soon enough.
Watching water way too warm down by the Yucatan.
Yeah the pattern and heat down in the GOM is nagging at me.
One thing I know well is hurricane history.
Rough stretch w/extreme wind for this area, as yesterday in #alwx 1st EF-4 U.S. #tornado since 2017 (none last year) & a few months ago in #flwx strongest winds in a #hurricane on mainland U.S. in 26 years; and the tornado outbreak & Hurricane Michael hit southern #gawx hard too. pic.twitter.com/9MG6zLU1iw
Prayers for those in the deadly, horrific tornadoes.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps... A really good article posted by Dr. Shepherd.
Women in Meteorology.
Pass it on to any young girl you know who loves weather.
Contributions of women often under-told in science. Particularly bad in meteorology. Some colleagues (scientists) demeaned by a focus on what they wear, look like, or the term "weather girl"....My thoughts @ForbesScience on 4 pioneers #WomensHistoryMonthhttps://t.co/6pen3XeyJ7
UPDATED! Tornadoes in the South - Snow Storms - Winter Storms - Snow Threatens Peach Trees Hit by Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas. Women in Meteorology.
Our power lines are under these two massive trees... debris is basically everywhere. Sirensare still blaring everywhere. The cliche of it sounds like a freight train coming is no joke. #tornadopic.twitter.com/lXJZX6Lrsz
The death toll could climb as they are still looking for people who are missing and going through the debris. This evening is far from over as for wicked weather and even more wicked cold will arrive later this week. I've said it over and over because the pattern seems to be stuck and severe weather keeps training over the same area in the Florida Panhandle that was slammed by Hurricane Michael up into areas that flooded from Florence. This does not bode well for early season development this hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico and off the SE coast when Subtropicals are prone to form close to the coast. Just saying it's something to remember.
I've been following on Twitter all afternoon.
Out shopping, raining but not heavy.
But the heavy weather is on the way.
Currently down in the Deep South.
The same area affected by Hurricanes Michael and Florence...
Mother Nature is kicking off Tornado Season in the South today!
Mother Nature isn't taking any prisoners tonight.
Cell phone towers down.
Saloons ripped apart.
From the Twitter feed on SpaghettiModels
Showing this as it's a great place to go to get instant weather news.
If you aren't on Twitter and are old school...
...it's a great resource.
This is as typical as it gets when Spring comes early.
And then Winter sneaks back in...
Cold diving air mixing with warm humid air.
Bamn! Twisters form.
look at that flow of moisture...
Gulf of Mexico Moisture.
Keep reading.
I'll update later in real time.
* * *
I posted this picture on February 17th....
... a beautiful pink array of blossoms on a nearby tree.
Below is out my window this morning.
Note the gray, white skies are a constant.
The maple tree has new baby red leaves on it.
Signs of Spring but it feels like Winter.
Where we are today with regard to weather.
Winter Weather to be exact!
Note how low the snow dips down into Arkansas.
All sliding East.
And there's another system behind it!
A lot of weather warnings there.
Red alert day for many places.
Being honest here, trying to watch national weather is at times hard when you are between seasons in the Carolinas and only really want to know one or two things.
What time is it going to start to rain today?
Is there any chance for snow flakes on the tail end of the next system?
Extra Credit: Is this going to mess up the fruit trees that started to bloom already?
Cantore brought it up also on TWC.
It's worth remembering those trees will be wet from rain.
Then cold, cold temperatures blow in on a strong wind.
Perhaps there is even a chance of a drop of snow?
Who knows?
Mother Nature seems to work in real time this year.
GFS may be beating the EURO with this one.
The local weather people have been talking on this or more so worrying on this as a possibility. Trees they be a blooming. My maple tree is unfurling it's leaves inch by inch, day by day, still in the red mode and it always amazes me it turns bright green eventually; kind of like those blonde hair little boys I had whose hair turned almost black as they got in their twenties.
Wednesday morning we have a forecast low of 21 and that's going to take a bite out of some of those early blooming trees. When people plant early and are told it's too soon they were warned. But the blooming of trees early after warm weather is something that cannot be controlled and it has happened this year after a very warm February and now with a cold March coming into areas already hit hard by Hurricane Florence may be hit again by Mother Nature on the rampage with freezing temperatures hurting the peach crop. It's not just the peace crop but areas under the gun for severe weather today and freezing temperatures this week are in peach country.
Again it's not all about whether New York City gets snow or if Boston is snow satisfied ... it's a big country we live in and every place has their own wishes for the weather they want and concerns they will get the weather they don't want. My daughter wants the snow to stop and for things to warm up however moving up to Pomona Heights area vs living down in Bayswater on the water has changed her weather watching from watching the high tides that flooded her street to "how much snow am I getting?" and this girl has been watching weather for years and years. So obviously I watch her and whoever she likes weather wise... https://www.instagram.com/dinadeehoops/
So Dina said I have to follow Amy Freeze...
...so I did as Dina knows weather.
No we cannot cancel the weather.
The EURO may lose to the GFS.
This may get interesting.
(Wow some huge bird just flew past my window..
...it was white and huge, hold on.
remember to wear coat when going outside...)
Good link to Bernie Rayno on models and forecasts.
This is a must read article about a woman who went into meteorology early on and had to balance family needs and her own need for a degree in meteorology. Motherhood is wonderful, really, but it ends up always being a balancing act trying to be a good mother and following your own dreams. Women like her rarely get movies made about them and rarely does anyone hear about them but they were brave, stubborn and followed their dreams. We should hear more about them.
My daughter Dina who I've mentioned watches different women meteorologists I rarely hear about and she of course watches them on Instagram. My daughter had dyslexia when young that she did overcome and eventually attained a Bachelors Degree from Touro University with her younger sister back in 2012. They are both awesome, but no teacher in elementary school or middle school ever expected Dina to go to college let alone graduate and she did so with great grades. She had a dream, but more so she had a goal and she didn't give up. How many people reading this have a dream but don't even try pursuing it or make only lists of reasons they could never do that? I never broke her spirit for good or bad. She dropped out of high school in the 9th grade and went to work for the principal's wife as a teacher's aid in her preschool. She traveled the world, the country to music festivals and went to Venice on her 25th birthday with her best friend because she wanted to.... and she went back to college after getting an online high school degree because her mother (me) begged her to and I may have tricked her into it but hey she's got a diploma! To be honest I thought she'd switch schools and maybe go to Art School, but no she stayed with college studying psychology and art getting one of the first degrees from Touro with an emphasis on multi-media art. My kids, all of them, always inspire me and trying to explain how during the quiet off season when no tropical waves are rolling across the Atlantic and forecast to get a name and become hurricanes. Welcome to my "off season" here...
And because I did follow Amy Freeze
In a serendipity kind of way I learned more today.
What a story.
I cannot believe anyone birthed 16 children.
And I've birthed many so for me to be shocked...
...and yet despite the large family she kept going.
What a story really.
Please follow Amy Freeze.
My daughter Dina is right indeed.
Down in Carolina watching snow forecasts for up the coast.
How close will it get.
I said the other day I expect Roxboro will get snow flakes.
Watching the models and the loops.
Women can do anything.
I bought my granddaughter Olivia a tee shirt that says that.
But mothers have to work twice as hard at least.
Life is balance in ways.
I'm sure it's hard for men too...
But they don't have to go to college ...
with a baby kicking in their tummy.
Men don't have to fight off morning sickness...
...men don't have to deal with postpartum depression.
Another weather person Dina loves below.
And I saw this today about a young woman...
...following her dream.
Happy to he the "weekend meteorologist" in Panama City.
Panama City got Hurricane Michael.
It also got rain all winter.
Wondering on what this hurricane season will bring.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
