Quiet Day in the Tropics Officially Tho Always Convection Somewhere and Usually Over Florida and North Carolina. Where Will Hurricanes Go This Year? Expect Landfalls... Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst.

This loop is shown at the top on Mike's site
www.spaghettimodels.com
Great loop.
Old 96L in SW Carib faint pulse.
Wave behind it nearing the Islands.
Front going flat soon across the SE.
Much moisture off shore that needs to be watched.

If the Atlantic is shut down for now....
...watch things that could form close in.
Currently the NHC says nothing forming,
Rule of thumb is to watch old frontal boundaries.

There is some stormy weather near Spain...
...and a kick ass wave is coming off of Africa.
Slamming into a huge plume of SAL for now.

Nothing expected currently.

This is the time you should prepare.

Make plans.

Take stock.

Shop.

Colorful convection scattered around.

Not expected to develop.

But fun to watch.

Going to show you a mix of previous areas of concern.

Yellow Circles and Zones for Development.

TD3 remember that one?

OLD CONES AND ZONES BELOW.

OLD FROM THIS YEAR.

If patterns persist.

We could see more down the road.

A look back...

And remember back when........

Listen it's possible nothing hits Florida.
But it's as if Florida has a bulls eye on it...
Weak systems... nothing to worry on.

But if the pattern remains the same.
It's something to worry about.

We take them storm by storm.
But you should shop day by day.
As you see sales....
...or if you are at Big Lots or ALDI
Or you see something on sale on Amazon.
Make a Wish List.
Check it off.

Rob from www.crownweather.com has a map.
A map for 2019.
A graphic for where storms may threaten.

The map for 2019 is up above.

As mentioned online Barry impacted one of his areas.

Below is his graphic from 2018.

Florence and Michael.

Rob nailed it.

Graphic from Rob for 2017.

The IRMA MARIA corridor.

And other storms less remembered.

His site is for pay.
It's a good deal.
But he is on Twitter so you can read some there.

I sincerely hope and pray this does not play out this way.
I hope and pray all slide by off the coast of FL ...
...curve out to sea before missing the Outer Banks.
No storms go up near NJ NY Long Island and NE.
The Gulf of Mexico gets shut down.

But with the pattern the way it is now.
The huge high.
Storms forming or intensifying close in..

Once SAL loses it's grip at the end of August.
The High moves a bit as it is want to do...
Climo kicks in and there is no looking back.
When things amp up they do it FAST.
So hit the Road Jack and get to the store.

So if you see something you at Big Lots...
...or ALDI or the Dollar Store... get it.
If you see something on Amazon..
Buy it!

If you live in an evacuation zone...
...figure out now where you will go.
To a friends inland?
To a shelter?

Now is the time to figure this out.

I'll be back tomorrow.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me there for real time discussion.

Sunday AM UPDATED! Invest 91L ... Will It Become Tropical Storm Barry? Stay Tuned. Recon Scheduled ... Are You Prepared for Hurricane Season? Tips and Things To Think ON... Pretend Chantal and Erin Are Out there NOW... Headed to You! What Would You Do?

Sunday Morning Update.

Nothing much to update.

Still holding at 60%

Note the mess of moisture across Tex Ok area.

That doesn't need tropical reinforcements.

The area off of the East Coast from an old front.

Invest 91L in the BOC

This morning's Selfie from the NRL

Not there yet.....

....but the ingredients are there.

Put it all in motion.

Compare and contrast from Saturday Night.

Again this not a real system.

It's a potential system.

An area that some models favor for development.

An area the NHC is evaluating and analyzing.

Currently an Invest not a Storm.

Where's it going?

Models shown below.

Sunday Morning models.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Oh do you have your Hurricane Season Tee Shirt?

Order fast ;)

I have mine

Went out for drinks Saturday night with my husband.

I had a hurricane.... of course.

Wore my shirt.

The Season is officially on...

So my thoughts for the 2019 Season?

You know that old song... Let's start at the very beginning, it's a very good place to start. When you begin you begin with...... oh....oops.... with B, C, D because the NHC awarded the A name to a one night stand off the East Coast. Next name up is Barry and as there is an Invest trying to form into a named storm in the Bay of Campeche... we may be looking at a briefly there Barry soon taking a long, slow route along the coast half over water, half over land and as most of it is trying to keep it's toes in the water we may have the real deal sooner rather than later. You can see by it's presentation it wants to spin and run with the ball so to speak in the Tex Mex region near the border. The bigger problem comes later in that it's moisture would hook up with a strong flow of moisture headed for places that don't need more rainfall.

Sunday Morning.

Some consolidation shown above.

Still much of this is in the Pacific.

Saturday Night below.

Compare and contrast with above.

I know we've been watching this for days.

Part of it was in the Epac.

Part of it was in the SW Carib.

And it's "circulation center" seemed over land.

Now it has emerged into the BOC...

Shear forecasts verified and shear is weaker.

Water is warm.

We could have lift off as soon as.......

....hurricane recon goes in tomorrow as planned.

We are definitely in the Highly Favorable range.

Water temperature wise that is......

Details of Invest 91L are below.

This is NOT a named storm... yet.

Though if Andrea is any example.

Barry is in the wings.

This is a great site Mike puts on his page.

Play around with it...

...learn it!

https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/tropical

.map.html/HurricaneIndex#Hurricane_Index-WX

Another good link to keep for this season is Levi Cowan.

He has a floater up and more info on 91L

https://tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#91L

What I want you to take away from this blog tonight is really a bottom line thing. This Invest is an example of why to watch the tropics even when the NHC main page says nothing is happening for the next five days and then suddenly they introduce an Invest that's drinking Red Bull! Andrea arrived briefly on the scene after days of them showing nothing happening. That was fine as Andrea was out in the middle of nowhere going nowhere but it can happen in the Gulf of Mexico often that something that seems like it won't develop suddenly does and the next thing you know is you missed the early yellow circle and there's a named storm out there. Your Whatsapp group is going nuts and you wonder how that happened. Well, if you are reading this blog and watching Mike on Spaghetti Models I'm pretty sure you won't be taken off guard by Barry or Chantal so take this as a notice that things move fast in the tropics. Stay on top of it when making your weekend or travel plans for the summer.

Someone should convince the NHC to use the Ferris name.

Don't you think?

Okay, maybe they are afraid to... 

F storms are always problematic!

I want to start off today asking you to read an old blog.

From June 1st of last year.

I spoke on my concern for a Carolina Landfall...

...and a Gulf of Mexico Landfall.

It's a reminder for new people I know what I'm talking about.

I wrote about a concern on Inland Flooding.... 

... sadly I was on the money with that concern.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/06/june-1st-start-of-hurricane-season-will.html

Reading back over what I wrote I amazed myself.

I don't promote myself as much as I could.

So learning from some of the best.

Later please read that blog.

And remember it was written June 1st last year.

Before Florence and Michael.

And if you read around you'll see........

.....I believed in Florence when others called her a Fish storm.

My next concern is to again beg you to prepare for the Hurricane Season.

Always follow @PhilFerro7 in the S FL area!

Please remember to think outside the box when putting together Hurricane Supplies. Use the Dollar Store, Walmart and Amazon and especially watch clearance racks that have great things that are usually near their expiration date and as you only will need them for the next several months they are a great investment. Let's get real strawberry jam doesn't really go bad if you buy it a few months before it's "best sold by" date and will be appreciated if you lose power and are eating peanut butter and jelly sandwiches in the dark.  If you don't use them and you are spared a real hit by a tropical system donate them to your local food bank. It's a win win no matter how you slice it!

Do you need extra vitamins or medicine? Stock up and always keep one extra month's supply of what you consider an essential. Some people consider Red Bull an essential ... well until their doctor tells them to lay off the Red Bull in the emergency room but if you have low blood pressure go for it! If you have high blood pressure make sure you have an extra month's supply of meds. Nothing will raise your blood pressure faster than trying to eat peanut butter and jelly sandwiches in the dark with the power out and the AC off... 

Become familiar with new apps, satellite loops (many have changed or are gone) and take advantage of the many new ways the NHC and NWS are using to try and give you the data directly from the Source so you don't have to believe everything Aunt Martha puts in the Family WhatsApp group!

Get to know websites you use often. Mike's Page 2 and Page 3 are valuable and filled with links you may love and need. When watching his Facebook Live (and I know you all do) watch the various ways Mike uses your favorite sites and learn. Mike's a great teacher. Earthnull for instance has faces there you can see beyond it's main page we show so often online.

We aren't really there yet.

But the NHC really likes it.....

Next suggestion I have for y'all....

.... regarding Hurricane Preparation.

Prepare as if a Category 4 is headed to your door and you prefer evacuating rather than seeing what it would be like to ride out the storm in your house and see how it really takes a Cat 4 Hurricane. If you want to evacuate where would you go? Figure it out NOW! Traveling far away to Aunt Martha might make it difficult to get back home to assess any damage to your house. Moving up the road to a Quality Inn if you don't have the money to fly to Aunt Martha may put you in a place impacted often by inland flooding. This happened last year during Hurricane Florence when people who lived along the coast took rooms up in Fayetteville and then had to be evacuated further inland when flooding became a problem there.  It's easier to plan out this impromptu vacation when you do it now online without a Cat 4 Chantal breathing down your back. 

If you would need to temporarily relocate your children during the school year do you have a relative or friend who would take them in? I don't mean to scare you but after the hell families went through after Hurricane Michael that is reminiscent of Katrina this is a reality that may hit home. Months after Michael there's still barely a place where Jim Cantore can get coffee in Mexico Beach!  Note when I travel I always carry small packs of instant coffee with me. They taste fresher and all your need is hot water. If I do that when visiting relatives who don't use caffeine on road trips, trust me it's good to keep in your hurricane supplies whether staying home or traveling.  If you are a caffeine fiend figure out how and where you'll get your hit of caffeine with the power off and the water not usable ... what will you do? After Katrina hit Miami and we lost power a newbie to the area who had just moved there from Manhattan freaked when the power was out and the local restaurants were closed. She walked over to the nearby Burger King and found it closed. She was in shock... it never occurred to her if her power went out she couldn't find a nearby restaurant open for her morning coffee. Newbies to hurricane country should ask old timers what to do and what their town is like before making a list of things you need for your hurricane supplies.

Learn. Educate. Google. 

Pretend Chantal is out there now with Erin on her tail and your city is not far from the extrapolated NHC Cone. Figure out NOW where you will go and what you will do. Either way, tell your relatives where you will go and stay and update them often. Make a family WhatsApp Group the way you would for a baby reveal ;)

Which name speaks to you..........

....obviously I'm loving Chantal.

And as a fan of One Life to Live...

How can you ignore Dorian?

As always I'll pray for you to stay safe in the storm but I beg you to take hurricane preparation seriously. If you want to live in paradise you need to pay the price and that might be the cost of a generator or a way of out of paradise if Chantal comes to call.

As for me personally I'm in Carolina tonight, but that's a moving target and I may be somewhere else tomorrow night. The song "On the Road Again" comes to mind. Stay tuned and find out where I update tomorrow night from... Truthfully it's been oh my gosh beautiful all day here in Raleigh. It's like someone turned off the Heat Ray Gun and I can breathe and  go for a walk again, have breakfast on the balcony and and remember why I love Carolina which lately felt a lot more like Death Valley. Thank you Lord for moving that Huge High off our neck! Did anyone ever really invent that Heat Ray Death Gun? Pretty sure Lex Luthor tried....

The Coast of Carolina carries some chance for a coastal subtropical storm or tropical attempt at a name down the road. We may make it to Wendy if the NHC persists in this naming frenzy. It's a favored region climo wise for early June development and it's never really too soon in June at this location for a low to form into some early promo for hurricane season to remind you it's hurricane season. Prepare and beware it may be a mean season. Winter came early to the Carolinas with a November Snow Storm. Summer came early in May with a historic heat wave. What will hurricane season do I wonder. You should wonder too and if you live in areas that have been having flooding be it from strong rainfall or river flooding I'd worry about anything that gets up into the Mississippi River Valley in the near term.

Bottom Line:

If this becomes Barry.

And if Barry follows the track the models forecast.

And hooks up with huge amounts of moisture.

We could see more epic flooding inland.

I hate to say that but it's true.

Look at that Purple Scorpio there ...

...in the sea of blue.

Inside the wet forest of green.

That's a lot of rain.

If this comes together it would be a sad start to the Hurricane Season.

A Hurricane Season I expect to include multiple landfalls.

Trust me I hope I'm wrong.

So start preparing now.

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instgram.

Follow me there for real time live updates.

And join in the discussion.

Ps... Again read what I wrote on June 1st last year.. 2018.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/06/june-1st-start-of-hurricane-season-will.html

Winter On the Way Out... Spring Not Totally Here ... Hurricane Season in the Wings. Good Women Meteorologist to Follow... Amy Freeze

Adrian Linares is really good to follow online!

I'm wanting to write something about this set of storms, including the much awaited last one in this series that many are watching on models while dreaming of the Great March Super Storm of 1993 as others are dreaming on tropical waves. I don't like to hype and I don't write this blog just to get clicks as much as to write on things that are worth warning people about and giving a measure of explanation and a little bit of entertainment along the way.

Listening to Country today and that's good. I mostly enjoy listening to country while in NY while driving through the Boro Park section of Brooklyn while blasting Nash Country (one of the best Country Radio Stations in the country) (yeah I did that twice on purpose) and okay I am a bit silly today officially..



It's a big country and everyone is watching their own little piece of paradise and so everyone has their own priorities. I live in the Carolinas when I am not home in Florida so my thoughts go to tropical weather along with severe weather faster than watching to see how much snow is going to be dumped on South Dakota. But this is a huge system and where you live means a lot as to your own concerns.

That's a lot of rain falling over the next five days.

And may I add in this reminder.......

... snow melt and rain = Spring Floods.

Maybe not this week but it's coming.

It's a long range concern I've had.

More weather for Florida and the Southeast.

As the flow from the GOM just goes on and on.

And I do think it will go on as we move towards May.

That flow is here to stay .. for a while anyway.

Winter storm whatever name TWC has today....

Cranky has this covered well on his blog.

He's really a long read.

I'm a lead in to a long read compared to him.

So which Winter storm to we get?

And will a Low form off the coast?

]

Crown Weather another incredible service.

You get what you pay for...

Many are watching the Atlantic....

Hard not to with something twisting out there.

It's a short term act... but fun to watch.

Dabuh said it would form and it did.

Caught between a cold front....

...and dust coming off of Africa.

It don't care it's doing it's thing.

Dabuh is on Instagram too.

https://www.instagram.com/dabuhsurf/

Now if you lived in North Florida.......

......and you surfed this would have your attention.

This was two days ago he posted this.

He's always got his eye on the tropics.....

Far out.

Close in.

It's all on the table for discussion.

My problem with the big winter storm is this...

...I'm tired of it.

Cranky has nailed this with the following statement.

Rinse and Repeat Pattern.

Gotta tell you it's gets boring after a while.

Especially when some try to HYPE every storm.

It's called Winter.

If something turns into a Superstorm.....

...that's history.

Every Tom, Dick and Harry that TWC is selling...

... are just rinse, repeat

It gets boring after a while.

Gotta good beat.

It's weather.

It's happening-ish.

Waiting for that big closer.

You know when they bring the new storm in at the end.

Of course if Boston gets SNOW they win again.

Everyone wants snow.

Everyone on the EAST coast that is...

Seattle and Minnesota are so done with snow.

Yes, it's that time of year.

Snow people get desperate .....

..hurricane people get snarky.

The in between time... 

Winter in the rear view mirror.

Hurricane Season down the road.

And storm chasers are on the road.

This is there time of year.

Yes Virginia we ARE going to have a Tornado Season this year.

You'll soon wish it was over if the trend continues.

And what do I think?

I think I'm tired of an endless progression of no neck winter storms slamming into the West Coast with fury and dumping snow up where it belongs and teasing people in the South, Mid Atlantic and Northeast with snow and then wimping out in less than a blaze of glory. 

So many things you can learn from Tennessee Williams. That man was a master of words, drama and not a drop of mediocrity anywhere near him. And, he knew Key West too and knew where he wanted to live enough to move his house cross town to the lot he where he wanted to live. You learn there are times to keep your mouth shut and not tell secrets and there are times when you know you have had enough and hear the "click" and sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do. Elizabeth Taylor was born to act in Tennessee Williams dramas. 

Yes The Weather Channel can name them anything they want and trot them out to try and get ratings but it has not been a winter of incredible storms to remember and most likely the early one in November will be the matching bookend to the one that will happen in late March or even April. Mother Nature has a way of snapping back and trying to correct an imbalance but she is moving on to Severe Weather Season in the Plains and the Deep South as deep Gulf of Mexico Moisture rises up into the heartland and slams into descending mediocre but cold enough cold fronts to cause trouble along many river cities. And those rivers will rise as we move later into Spring and snow melting along the cities along the Mississippi River and it's many tributaries will meet up with Spring rains and the forecast I'm making is that means floods. I hate to say that but it's about as much a given as mud slides in California after fires during an El Nino.

I'll talk on El Nino another time, today this is about this week's multi-faceted Winter Storm system.

I'll update tomorrow.

I think the Gulf of Mexico will produce and deliver a few early Tropical named Systems and areas off the coast of the Florida Georgia Line will produce Subtropicals that play peek a boo with South Carolina. Yes Fishing I'm talking about you :) I really need to do a road trip bad. But a good road trip hitting all the right places sooner rather than later.

So buckle up everyone because Mother Nature is trying to hit you one more time with a winter storm and then we can move on to packing up the winter clothes, boots and doing a real Spring Cleaning!

Gosh that girl can sing.

Last but not LEAST...

WHAT IS GOING ON WITH EARTHQUAKES AND FLORIDA?

Florida Georgia Line indeed....

Mike (who I should lead with but the ending is important!)

I learned about this from Mike.

Not Dutchsince (Quake Icon some people love)

But Mike from Spaghetti Models.

Thus proving  my point.

All meteorologists and closet geologists...

...and vice versa!

My brother constantly sends me links to Mike.

It's kind of cute in an endearing annoying way.

:)

Baby Brothers ...what can I say?

Yes, I follow Mike....

...I've followed Mike for more years than I want to admit.

Sometimes Mike follows me ;)

Hurricane Season is coming.

And it seems the area hit by Hurricane Michael...

...affected by tornadoes is being hit by mild earthquakes.

When you're hot you're hot... 

It's an active part of the planet it seems in all ways.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

Sweet Tropical Dreams.......

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... Oh the female meteorologist?

Amy Freeze.

She's pretty awesome.

My daughter Dina who lives in NY is a huge fan.

https://www.instagram.com/stories/amyfreeze/?hl=en

@AmyFreeze7 on Twitter

She posts on Instagram the way I tweet...

Nonstop smart, funny and her own unique person.

Yes she is beautiful and YES she has brains.

And she has degrees, real degrees.

Impressive degrees.

https://www.instagram.com/dinadeehoops/

Dina is not a Meteorologist she is an Artist.

And she's done her share of storm chasing...

...so she knows a good meteorologist when she sees one.

I think Dina sees a lot of herself in Amy.

Without realizing ... of course.

:)

Tropical Tuesday - Snowy Seattle - Sunshine in Florida - NY/NE Winter Weather Expected

It's a mixed bag across the nation with the Pacific Northwest stealing all the headlines and the states North of the old Mason-Dixie Line are hogging winter weather ...depriving Southern Snow lovers of snow and wishing they were in Seattle of all places! Here my grandson below who lives in upstate New York finally got some snow action again today; by the way he loves snow. Apparently the snow began before 9:45 AM so the school sent out text messages that school was cancelled officially so he's on his way back home (to the left of the picture) to spend a snow day with his mother who is most likely online sympathizing with her sister-in-law in Seattle whose kids have been on "snow day" all week so far.

Seattle grandkids doing cookie arts and crafts today.

Pretty sure that's gonna be Snow Week 2019!

In Florida we be like Winter is Wednesday ;)

www.spaghettimodels.com

Florida is beautiful.

So is Seattle ;)

The view of snow in Seattle is magical...

...to everyone but my daughter-in-law Chani

Van Gogh could not have done better.

https://twitter.com/WxDeFlitch

That's a stunning, snowy, magical winter wonderland!

So what can we learn about this coming hurricane season from this recent ongoing winter I wonder. It's easy to ask if previous past snowy years in Seattle were El Nino years or La Nina years or something in between. The problem with that is that some were moderate El Nino, others were moderate La Nina and some were moderately Neutral which is interesting as there is nothing moderate about this winter in Seattle so something should be worth studying. 

The problem with El Nino discussion is that everyone writes a different story in the news explaining that it is coming, going or continuing on as scheduled. Up above is a plethora of contradictory news stories regarding El Nino and how it is or isn't affecting the weather in any one given spot on the planet. Below is a good discussion from the most reliable place stating we really aren't in the throes of an El Nino today. It's not a matter of "fake news" in the "weather world" as much as everyone needs a headline or story so there is always some statistic that may be used to hype any fact you are trying to sell. 

This map shows a current Enso Neutral phase.

I'm sure many might argue this...

A wonderful link to learn about El Nino away from the hype of the headlines is shown below:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/tampabayelninopage

Either way the years when Seattle had record breaking winter weather in one form or another are years when the Atlantic also spit out busy hurricane seasons. You can add 1945 and 1949 to the images I showed in yesterday's blog. Despite the differences in phases of El Nino the similarity for all those years shown from 2012 to 1985 to 1945 to 1949 show busy hurricane seasons along the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico; it would be ironic if the Hurricane Season delivered what Mother Nature took away in the winter. One way or the other weather happens.

Note the headlines for one of those storms.

Another factor in the tropics is SAL.

Saharan Dust that has already shown it's face.

The sunset images all week on Twitter show that fact.

Coral orange and rusty red sunsets are in order.

It also ups allergy, asthma and other illnesses here.

Yes, that's dust as DaBuh pointed out this morning.

https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh

It's pretty windy in Miami today so that helps.

The Australian Pines are rustling.

The sun is shining.

My kids are either swimming, boating or jogging on the beach.

But the natives never really forget the hurricane season.

Those coral sunsets on Instagram dazzle....

...but Saharan Dust is in the air.

Winter weather here is beautiful.

Nothing lasts forever....

Winter turns into Spring.

Spring Fever Baseball....

...Storm Chasing on the Plains?

Royal Poinciana Trees turn crimson colors.

Plumeria blossoms appear.

Jo Malone puts out Spring Scents.

And then.... we have hurricane season.

Til then a good loop below shows the SAL story.

Saharan Dust satellite loop:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

The bottom line is any real weather pattern that is as noticeable as this year's lack of winter in some places and the constant bombardment in other areas shows a pattern of sorts. What kind of pattern? Not sure yet. Shake the Magic 8 Ball and look again later. The Plains were a bit lacking in Spring weather last season and tornadoes happened frequently in places far to the North such as Wyoming and Cape Cod. And endless parades of T Bone like Cold fronts dragging severe weather up across the Florida beaches that got slammed last hurricane season meeting up with Ohio Valley winter weather continues on and on and on.

Last year's developing moderate El Nino helped keep Texas dry.

Dry from tropical weather tho they had lots of storms.

That pattern months later still seems in place.

However the winds may have changed if El Nino waned some.

Til then just keep watching.

Much to think on down the road.

Today I'm going to enjoy Miami and the family.

Not going to think about NC and the lack of snow there.

Or the cold temperatures at night.

Or my boots that are waiting for me in my closet.

Then again Spring will come soon.

The maple tree was already budding when I left.

We are all collectively waiting on Spring.

Especially meteorologists.

Stay tuned.

Check out yesterday's blog on Snow in Seattle.

And it explains why I've been on vacation ;)

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2019/02/missing-in-action-in-miami-as-snow.html

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

https://www.instagram.com/bobbistorm/

Ps... a good long walking tour video of Seattle's Pike Place that is one of the most iconic and incredibly fun places to spend the day if you are lucky enough to be in Seattle on any day even in a snow storm. Spoiler Alert... it's going to keep snowing this week. I bet he never thought he'd be on a tropical blog that usually features tropical weather. Such is life ... filled with surprises.