A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Sunday, November 17, 2019
Updated! NHC Ups Yellow Circle to 50% Orange Circle in the Atlantic......As the Coastal Storm Begins to Move Up the Coast.. Getting Ready to Lift North Along the Coast ...
When you struggle for words & try not to editorialize.... 50% chances for orange area being monitored by the NHC for some sort of designation. Invest should be soon. Morning visible a bit later. pic.twitter.com/SN2FRoZ4Z5
Orange Juice loop ... used to call it that way back when. Shows moisture and itβs a great tool to see when it begins to spin up. 50/50 chances but by the time I Post this could be 60% NHC suddenly bullish π€·π»ββοΈ pic.twitter.com/ENjwWxlXCR
This loop shows when a system begins to spin.
It shows MANY things....
...but it's a great predictive tool.
Took a nice drive up into the country a bit.
The Falls River Recreation Area.
That means the dam...
...by the river where they made a lake.
Too cold up on the path by the lake.
Sat down by river shoots out from the dam.
Hasn't been much color this year.
And what color we had pretty much blew away...
...in the last two storms.
Went up to the lake today ... Fall of Neuse River near the dam to get a look at #fallcolors but this past weeks windy cold storm blew many of the leaves away. Wintry look bit by bit. Front by front. Windy very cold. pic.twitter.com/U5dQilkHGc
Pretty tho... always.
And on the way near the house...
Street near where I live.
Usually more color in mid November.
Lots of trees whose leaves have blown away.
Lastly a bit a color in my neighborhood ... maybe if the sun stays out tomorrow. Itβs beautiful in the sunshine. pic.twitter.com/bGpeijh1NR
Check out the beach erosion on Croatan Beach as the NNE wind gusts up to 40 MPH. The highest of the high tides at 10:38 AM here in VA Beach and one homeowner thinks they'll lose the fence again. We're live on @weatherchannel#vawx#waves@NWSWakefieldVApic.twitter.com/WqJgntNtFl
Listening to meteorologists online and on air talk today makes my heart beat faster for football on a Sunday afternoon with a quasi storm stronger than many of our named tropical storms this past summer. Transference of energy.... handing off as the system waits for the strong winter storm to throw a long pass and for the coastal low to pick up yardage and go all the way up the East coast impacting other much loved beaches on the way.... the same way it played with our beaches down here in the Carolinas.
Good article in the Wall Street Journal on Project Storm Fury; leaves out a lot about it's earlier days and I could say much but will leave for another day. Love the use of the word "seriously" here as controlling the weather is the stuff dreams are made of .... And nations do it on a small scale all the time be it rain for crops or no rain on opening day ceremonies at the Olympics. But controlling big hurricanes as romantically heroic as it sounds pales in comparison to the every day enhancing rainfall for crops to grow in their season. A good read on some history, sort of a primer and well worth your time.
Winter On the Way Out... Spring Not Totally Here ... Hurricane Season in the Wings. Good Women Meteorologist to Follow... Amy Freeze
Adrian Linares is really good to follow online!
I'm wanting to write something about this set of storms, including the much awaited last one in this series that many are watching on models while dreaming of the Great March Super Storm of 1993 as others are dreaming on tropical waves. I don't like to hype and I don't write this blog just to get clicks as much as to write on things that are worth warning people about and giving a measure of explanation and a little bit of entertainment along the way.
Listening to Country today and that's good. I mostly enjoy listening to country while in NY while driving through the Boro Park section of Brooklyn while blasting Nash Country (one of the best Country Radio Stations in the country) (yeah I did that twice on purpose) and okay I am a bit silly today officially..
It's a big country and everyone is watching their own little piece of paradise and so everyone has their own priorities. I live in the Carolinas when I am not home in Florida so my thoughts go to tropical weather along with severe weather faster than watching to see how much snow is going to be dumped on South Dakota. But this is a huge system and where you live means a lot as to your own concerns.
That's a lot of rain falling over the next five days.
And may I add in this reminder.......
... snow melt and rain = Spring Floods.
Maybe not this week but it's coming.
It's a long range concern I've had.
More weather for Florida and the Southeast.
As the flow from the GOM just goes on and on.
And I do think it will go on as we move towards May.
......and you surfed this would have your attention.
This was two days ago he posted this.
He's always got his eye on the tropics.....
Far out.
Close in.
It's all on the table for discussion.
My problem with the big winter storm is this...
...I'm tired of it.
Cranky has nailed this with the following statement.
Rinse and Repeat Pattern.
Gotta tell you it's gets boring after a while.
Especially when some try to HYPE every storm.
It's called Winter.
If something turns into a Superstorm.....
...that's history.
Every Tom, Dick and Harry that TWC is selling...
... are just rinse, repeat
It gets boring after a while.
Gotta good beat.
It's weather.
It's happening-ish.
Waiting for that big closer.
You know when they bring the new storm in at the end.
Of course if Boston gets SNOW they win again.
Everyone wants snow.
Everyone on the EAST coast that is...
Seattle and Minnesota are so done with snow.
Yes, it's that time of year.
Snow people get desperate .....
..hurricane people get snarky.
The in between time...
Winter in the rear view mirror.
Hurricane Season down the road.
And storm chasers are on the road.
This is there time of year.
Yes Virginia we ARE going to have a Tornado Season this year.
You'll soon wish it was over if the trend continues.
And what do I think?
I think I'm tired of an endless progression of no neck winter storms slamming into the West Coast with fury and dumping snow up where it belongs and teasing people in the South, Mid Atlantic and Northeast with snow and then wimping out in less than a blaze of glory.
So many things you can learn from Tennessee Williams. That man was a master of words, drama and not a drop of mediocrity anywhere near him. And, he knew Key West too and knew where he wanted to live enough to move his house cross town to the lot he where he wanted to live. You learn there are times to keep your mouth shut and not tell secrets and there are times when you know you have had enough and hear the "click" and sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do. Elizabeth Taylor was born to act in Tennessee Williams dramas.
Yes The Weather Channel can name them anything they want and trot them out to try and get ratings but it has not been a winter of incredible storms to remember and most likely the early one in November will be the matching bookend to the one that will happen in late March or even April. Mother Nature has a way of snapping back and trying to correct an imbalance but she is moving on to Severe Weather Season in the Plains and the Deep South as deep Gulf of Mexico Moisture rises up into the heartland and slams into descending mediocre but cold enough cold fronts to cause trouble along many river cities. And those rivers will rise as we move later into Spring and snow melting along the cities along the Mississippi River and it's many tributaries will meet up with Spring rains and the forecast I'm making is that means floods. I hate to say that but it's about as much a given as mud slides in California after fires during an El Nino.
I'll talk on El Nino another time, today this is about this week's multi-faceted Winter Storm system.
I'll update tomorrow.
I think the Gulf of Mexico will produce and deliver a few early Tropical named Systems and areas off the coast of the Florida Georgia Line will produce Subtropicals that play peek a boo with South Carolina. Yes Fishing I'm talking about you :) I really need to do a road trip bad. But a good road trip hitting all the right places sooner rather than later.
So buckle up everyone because Mother Nature is trying to hit you one more time with a winter storm and then we can move on to packing up the winter clothes, boots and doing a real Spring Cleaning!
Gosh that girl can sing.
Last but not LEAST...
WHAT IS GOING ON WITH EARTHQUAKES AND FLORIDA?
Florida Georgia Line indeed....
Mike (who I should lead with but the ending is important!)
I learned about this from Mike.
Not Dutchsince (Quake Icon some people love)
But Mike from Spaghetti Models.
Thus proving my point.
All meteorologists and closet geologists...
...and vice versa!
My brother constantly sends me links to Mike.
It's kind of cute in an endearing annoying way.
:)
Baby Brothers ...what can I say?
Yes, I follow Mike....
...I've followed Mike for more years than I want to admit.
Sometimes Mike follows me ;)
Hurricane Season is coming.
And it seems the area hit by Hurricane Michael...
...affected by tornadoes is being hit by mild earthquakes.
When you're hot you're hot...
It's an active part of the planet it seems in all ways.
Weekend Weather. Tropics? Taking a Break of Finished? Coastal Storm... GOM. Questions Abound.
Convection in the Caribbean.
Rain lingering along the Texas coast...
... continuing to flow in with a flood alert.
Cold weather clouds off the East coast.
Everyone wants to know what's happening with the weather this weekend and next week but some are wondering on the tropics and others are wishing for a snow storm. It's that time of year we start watching the Troposphere to see what may be coming down our way.
Cranky watches up above.
He lives up north.
DaBuh watches down below.
He lives Down South.
In reality we watch the troposphere...
...because what develops there and dips down...
... becomes the steering currents in the tropics.
What goes around comes around.
DaBuh loves to say that...
...it's true.
It can lift a hurricane up towards landfall...
...or it can sweep one away from landfall.
Currently there are no hurricanes forecast to form.
This time of year things can pop up fast so we watch.
...the AC isn't on that's just cool air getting in here.
Got my velvet sweat pants from Victoria's Secrets on :)
Short sleeve top in a matching color.
We are moving bit by bit into Autumn.
Took off the hot pink nail polish...
..tried a new color Burnished Bronze.
It looked like a Fall Shade ;)
Patchy frost possible on Monday...
Brrr for Bronze.
As for the tropics until that flow stops flowing...
We need to watch the Caribbean.
And any stalled out cold fronts that linger.
That means the GOM and off the FL coast as well.
Late October and early November can produce hurricanes.
On this day in history... Wilma did the Yucatan.
A few days later she did Florida.
She caught a cold front.
Some people stop watching the tropics after the first good cold front goes through Florida and simply say things like "it's all zonal" and what they mean is if they aren't getting any huge CV Hurricanes they don't care and aren't chasing any subtropical or hybrid storm. I'm not that person. I watch with one eye on the tropics and one eye up at the North Pole. No ... not looking for Santa though might be wondering what Superman is doing up there hiding out but he's probably just enjoying the snow. Everyone wants to know about snow or a hurricane, but the reality is that weather happens in between in places that wish they could get rid of the weather. Texas for example is so stuck in a wet pattern and that's common this time of year some years. Caribbean moisture is still moving up towards the Gulf or Mexico and there's much rain but not a lot of spinning going on. No name storms wash out bridges, destroy WHOLE small communities built in the cheaper low lands close to where people work and they get no press. But tropical destinations along the coasts that have destruction get lots of press. You could say it's not the same but it is and it's a matter of perspective. If your community was washed away by a Flash Flood that wasn't even on the radar the night before when you were decorating for Halloween and putting together a few things for Christmas presents it's the same devastating, horrific catastrophe. Oh you heard a neighborhood of trailers were destroyed so you think somehow that it's not as big as a beach front home that looks like the beach front home you always dreamed of...
A statistic I read this morning said that 30 to 50% of the people in the path of Hurricane Michael live within the poverty range. That might be higher in the part of North Carolina flooded out by rain from Hurricane Florence. To the people who live in the trailer parks and work in the farmland in Florida, Georgia, Carolinas and Texas from the No Name storm they lost their homes and their jobs. I was told it takes a good fifteen years for a pecan orchard in Texas to really produce, that's a long term disaster for people in those parts and I can bet you money that in five years Panama City will look more beautiful than it ever was before Michael. I know because we went through it in Homestead, some of the poorer areas looked like beautiful suburbs three to five years later as money flowed into the area in the same way devastating hurricanes winds blew in with Andrew. Money flows after a hurricane into some areas and other areas money creeps in and the towns barely come back and the people who lived and worked there pick up and move away. Just inland about 30 minutes from Myrtle Beach or less there are tobacco farms, cotton farms and farms that grown winter wheat and the landscape is filled with small trailer communities on the edges of the farms and small towns that all look the same in that they have a few old beautiful buildings and some store somewhere has been changed into a Chinese Buffet. Drive the back roads someday they are beautiful and an education about what it takes to make a country like the USA. Not everyone lives in the cities and not everyone is rich and owns a beach home or a ski chalet but life is way better here than it is in most places across the world. If your home, trailer or beachfront dream house was destroyed your world was destroyed. Some have good insurance or money put away and will rebuild there or somewhere else and others will simply pick up and move on to some other town where they can make a living and send their kids to school.
Or take a drive somewhere out in the country and look at the Fall Foliage or drive down to the coast and spread some money about encouraging life to get back to normal along the coast of North Carolina. Not sure what I am doing this weekend. Maybe staying close to home and watching football or take a long drive somewhere or maybe go to the Farmer's Market for fresh Fall produce that is bountiful this time of year round here. Time will tell. I'll update the blog should anything happen worth updating. If the models start to come on as fast as Jack Frost is nipping at our door I'll post some information on them. Have a great weekend if you are a Red Sox fan and I am .... you'll be wearing your colors and having a smile on your face. I'd play the Fenway Park video but this series shows we can win anywhere even on the road and we have done that before haven't we? I just realized I have a charm not just a bunch of tee shirts and a way too big oversized tank top I sleep in sometimes.
Besos BobbiStorm.
@bobbistorm on Twitter
If you aren't a big Red Sox fan here's another video below.
Ps. Going to put this here and let y'all think on it a bit and let it sink in that being a mother can be empowering and doesn't mean you can't "have a life" and continue doing what you love. Most 1st world and many 2nd and 3rd world countries have had women leaders and they were often at the top of their game without having to worry how to balance careers. Women in both political parties work in Washington while raising children and even being active grandmothers. I like to think God gives mothers an extra measure of strength especially in today's world where mother's work full time and have to balance being a mother and working in careers from Publix to being an Ambassador at the United Nations. Being a mother takes a lot of navigating and often but not always the father's do their share making it all work. But either way... she does a good job and makes a good point. So this is for any young girls out there... you CAN be a METEOROLOGIST and you can work on air or behind the scenes and you can be anything you want to be you just got to work at it hard as success takes hard work and sometimes a measure of luck. Good luck!
Updated! Florence.. Short Term Moving NW at 15 MPH. Long Term? Does She Stall? Slow Down? Loop? Make Landfall More than Once?
8PM
Intermediate Advisory.
A bit of dry air on her South Side.
Still a Major Hurricane.
But lowered wind speed.
Still moving NW at 16 MPH.
If you follow on Twitter....
...there has been much discussion on her true intensity.
Much speculation on her being lower...
..as they showed at 8 PM.
Her presentation below is good.
She looks different tonight from this morning.
You can scroll down and see the difference.
Very round now.
Moving NW at 16 MPH.
Cone mostly the same.
There is low confidence after 72 hours still.
Nothing changes huh?
Oh wait... We now have TS Joyce.
Busy times...
Note at the top the NHC...
has links to the NWS in different cities.
That's good.
So here are my thoughts and I'm going clarify a bit as well. Forecasts are verified or busted by sometimes a matter of degrees and if timing and location don't verify you have to go back and see what was wrong to try and nail down any issues down the road. Currently Florence is NE of her forecast points, not by much but noticeable enough that everyone is talking about it. She moved faster than expected, she didn't slow down and intensify more but maintained her track and moved faster to the NW. Normally when a hurricane is North of 30 degrees latitude and it's a well formed hurricane moving NW it rarely turns back to the South. This could be that rare time. But at some point the NHC has to look at the location and speed vs the trof and high that is building that is forecast to stop her forward movement and see if they need to adjust their track.
What's confusing is she is more on target with Saturday's 11 PM.
And even then she is NE of where she should be.
That cone is from Saturday EVENING.
Since then they moved it around a bit.
It was a pretty good forecast.
It verifies better than today.
What difference does a degree or two make?
Extrapolated over time it makes a difference.
Next important thing I wanted to say is that there are several different concerns here and it's not all about where she makes landfall or if she dips SW or continues inland West as if she's planning a stop at South of the Border. The state border of NC dips down near South Carolina East of 95 and so it could easily ride the border area towards Fayetteville just as easily as go further South into South Carolina IF ...big IF... it doesn't bobble along the coast moving SW. I'm sorry but there's much uncertainty about the track so I'm going to divide this into two parts.
1. Short term.
Florence is forecast to continue her current movement, slowing in speed as it approaches the coast and makes a landfall somewhere between the SC/NC border and the Southern Outer Banks abbreviated to SOBX as we write in North Carolina. That means any of these cities could find itself slammed by strong winds, high storm surf and a good swath of the border will see much destruction. We are talking from Morehead and Beaufort South to Wilmington to the little beach towns of Kure Beach, Carolina Beach and so forth down to Ocean Isle Beach, Bald Head Island and Myrtle Beach is in play if it slows it's forward speed. But the more it moves North the more that landfall is closer to Cape Lookout or Cape Fear.
This part of the world.
Storm surge, strong winds in low lying areas.
Beautiful homes along the beach...
..beach businesses and State Parks.
Time will tell.
2. Long Term Movement.
Currently the models, most of the models, see a system moving towards the coast and Florence with a high that is building aloft that Cranky on Twitter refers to as a thin banana like ridge that is expected to trap Florence. Again timing is everything, as is the correct forecast for this high pressure ridge.
Florence either moves into E NC creating possibly record flooding like we have had in the past.
Both Matthew and Floyd were horrible floods and some areas are still recovering from Matthew.
There are many river basins there and normally there are low lying areas with some swampy areas but when a hurricane comes every creek fills with water and rages into town destroying businesses, homes and lives. It wasn't so long ago we were here with Matthew.
or
Florence bobbles out (still not sold on this one) and bobbles along the coastline SW parallel to the coast causing destruction and beach erosion over a large area. There would be less bad inland flooding in ENC but a long drawn out form of misery watching her crawl along the coastline. If half of her is over water she maintains energy and she can do damage along a large area. Either way even if she makes landfall in Wrightsville Beach places far to the South like Myrtle Beach will get some storm surge and high tides and well we have to see this play out to see the models are properly handling Florence's movement and in the past they not handled her perfectly.
or
Florence moves inland through NC near the SC border as she was originally forecast to do before all the discussion of the SW dip came into play and where there are hills as the land begins to rise there are areas that will see flash flooding and record rainfall. If she gets inland past the Piedmont there is interaction with the mountains and this could be a rare inland fresh water flood event for North Carolina and parts of South Carolina.
or..
Least likely but on the table she moves all the way down to near Savannah and the areas with upper elevation in Georgia could get record floods and Tybee and the other beaches in the Georgia area will be slammed by a tropical system and they are less likely slammed than OBX that uses a hurricane symbol on it's bumper stickers. The first sticker I bought when I was spending time here...
IF she maintains strength and intensity.
I seriously doubt she makes the SW trek.
I could be wrong.
But a strong hurricane wants to go North.
If the ridge is narrow she could try busting into it.
If the ridge is strong she can get trapped.
So many intangibles.
As for me I'm watching.
I have two sets of kids going to Israel today.
Jewish holidays and family events.
My son in law Idan (from Israel) took pics for me.
My daughter said the trip was very bumpy near NC.
Miami to NYC...
That's my grandson Harel looking out the windows.
Idan said at first it was nice...
Like the pictures above.
Then they began flying over thick white clouds...
...it was very bumpy but okay.
But noticeable.
Ironically in Raleigh an outer band showed up today.
I was watching the satellite imagery.
Note on the imagery below.
She is weak on her S and SW side.
That would be good if she goes SW along the coast.
The coast would be dealing with her weaker side.
Again things change in real time.
I went outside and watched this arcing cloud..
...approaching from where Florence is located.
Go figure we were looking at the same cloud.
Bottom line...this is the battleground.
It comes down to this..
You can see Florence.
You can see her just off shore really.
You can see the system in the upper left.
Above the system is the high that is expected to trap her.
It all comes down to timing.
If she gets further North than expected...
she might not slip as far South.
She could stall or loop.
Or slip down the coast.
Time will tell.
Thoughts from Cranky....
Wes is our local Raleigh weather source.
Allan Huffman is a great meteorologist.
He happens to live in Raleigh.
Allan in NY has been doing good solid graphics.
I want you to look at that map.
At landfall the wind and surge is important.
The fresh water flooding inland...
... can be anywhere within that area.
This is the schedule for what we see in Raleigh.
For local advice check the NWS.
You can have flash floods far from landfall.
You can have strong gusty cells far from the landfall.
The image I want you to look at it shown below. You can go back through my blogs and see the similar set up. Florence loves to push into dry air, more than almost any hurricane I've seen in ages, she just keeps pushing into dry air. She left Africa in a sea of SAL and was encapsulated by dry and she just kept pushing W or WNW into it and slowly eroding it. Back when she developed and the NHC kept her intensity at 70 MPH while busy with Gordon and didn't upgrade her to hurricane until an eye popped out. She is still dancing with SAL and she doesn't seem to care. She had shear blasted at her for days and only weakened eventually to come back to the same shape she had before she fell apart. She is different from most hurricanes in that she is huge in size and is intense and has the momentum going in her favor. At some point she should slow down and get caught in weaker steering currents, note I used the word "should" on purpose.
She has turned NW and is moving fast.
The image below shows why she is moving NW.
This may be short term movement.
But when you extrapolate NW at 15 MPH...
...she gains in latitude with every hour.
Note this is the 53rd time the NHC has written discussion on Hurricane Florence that formed back on August 30th as a strong CV wave. The link is below. It may seem difficult at first to read it but you get used to the words used and you get the feel for how the forecasters are thinking. A picture does not tell the whole story and the official Cone doesn't tell the whole story and if you don't believe me ask anyone who went through Hurricane Charley or Hurricane Opal. It's a cone, moved and changed often but the discussion shows you what is going through the forecaster's mind while trying to make a good forecast.
Salient points I feel you need to remember are highlighted by me, please read the whole discussion above. There is always foreshadowing, innuendo and hints as to where they may go on the next advisory.
Note in the paragraph above they are sure on the short term and not so sure on the long term. But this is what may influence Florence and she could go West as easily as WSW or SW so depending on what she actually does three days from now they will adjust the cone.
How many times can they say "72 hours"
They have low confidence on the exact track after 72 hours.
But they have a very good idea where it will be.
Who it MAY threaten and what it SHOULD do.
That's a definite maybe.
I'm not making fun but it reminds me of a great song.
I'm not making fun of the NHC......
...it's a difficult job especially with Florence.
And Florence has been a pain in the ass from the start.
She was forecast from day one to probably be a FISH storm.
Wind probabilities show trends but remember one thing Dave Schwartz always said... what goes down often goes back up, the atmosphere is often in flow and the normal state of it is to go towards the poles. Major Canes more than others feel the Call of the North and want to go NORTH any chance they get. But we have a forecast showing a Major Cane trapped by a ridge and an iffy trof being fed by tropical moisture in the GOM to try and beat a Major Cane. Think of this as a game of cards. You have a Flush and a Royal Flush and a set of Queens ... someone else is holding a set of Kings. I'm pretty sure the Royal Flush beats the set of Queens and the set of Kings. No matter how good models are they do not change the general dynamics of hurricanes and how they work, move, operate and the history we have learned from showing how some hurricanes do not do what we think they will no matter how smart we are in 2018. Hurricanes can still be fickle and stubborn so keep watching.
The wind probs are from on the North end...
To Montgomery Alabama on the SW end...
As always the NRL map grid shows this in an image.
The NHC cone is always narrower.
The area that could feel wind follows the NRL.
Trust me on this......
Yes Virginia Orlando IS in the wind probs.
So I am NOT in the CONE...
...but I am in the Wind Probs.
It doesn't always line up.
You do what you got to do.
Now.. my thoughts.
Days ago I drew an extended cone.
Extrapolated cone.
Basically their cone is inside my cone.
September 6th I showed the extrapolation.
I figured the possible stall and slow down.
I've talked on a stall and/or loop for weeks.
Go back and read my blogs.
Especially 9/3/2018
I had the GA/SC in a possible cone...
as much as the NC/VA border.
The Canadian Cone I like.
Follows mostly the NHC
But timing is often different.
They change it differently sometimes.
There's was excellent by Sandy.
Let's go with Bald Head Island...
..for the first land fall.
Give or take 75 miles N/S.
Florence is still far out at sea.
Yes Florence MAY make TWO Landfalls.
Maybe.
Not sold on that.
She could just as easily move inland and slide over land West.
Or WSW making loops slamming everyone with rain.
She could move further inland towards Fayetteville..
..she could stall over East NC as many do.
She could go South to South of the Border.
This could be South of the Border's storm.
At some point her rain goes West or NW or NNW.
It's the way of the world.
Note her orientation again.
Let's stay with this picture.
Big wide eye.
She has less bulk on the SW side always.
She is always stronger on the NE side.
Unless she dives South (not likely)
That is not changing.
IF you have to have a hurricane just offshore.
Always better to be on her SW side...
...as usually and in this case it's her weaker side.
Link you can loop it and see her try and runaway from SAL.
Long loop, awesome.
Being honest...
..not much stops a huge Major Hurricane.
And Major Hurricanes really want to go North.
It's important how much latitude she gains...
before the big stall and slow down.
I want to say a few things. There has been so much hype and drama with this huge historic storm that it's reaching crazy levels. I live in Raleigh in a beautiful apartment on the 2nd floor in an area not prone to flooding with no creek or river nearby. There are some trees to my North but not on top of the apartment (near enough I was a bit worried) and not in a heavily forested house like where we lived for close to 8 years was more troublesome though it came through Fran fine. Yet people who know me and know no way and I am leaving if a hurricane is making landfall have been freaking out because Florence is the size of Alaska or something like that they saw online and they heard ALL of NC is going to be destroyed and "what am I going to do??" Everyone needs to breathe... I prepared, we shopped, we will hunker down and we will see what Florence finally does. This model or that model, this cone or that cone ... in the end it will be what Florence does. I'll write about it, if I have electric I will write endlessly and if I lose electric I'll write when as much as I can. If it goes SW I'll be writing long blogs trust me.
I moved here after getting married in 2009? Who remembers, I traveled back and forth so much for the year before that I've basically been here for ten years. The first "beach" my husband took me to was Wilmington on a 80 degree day in March before a cold front went through the next day. He took me and my youngest son to the Outer Banks on Memorial Day Weekend. My daughter ended up attending NC State so we are part of the Wolfpack Nation and we spend a lot of time in Myrtle Beach as they have an awesome Chabad House (Google it) and it's a frequent get away. I have come to love Bogue Sound and adore Morehead and Atlantic Beach. We have taken our kids out on the NC Ferry that runs from one spot to another and I'm in love with Oriental (Sailboat Heaven) but don't get there enough. Jim Cantore is on my beach in Wrightsville (Wilmington's beach) and often the site of a landfalling hurricane. This is personal to me as I'd hate to see that beautiful part of the beach from SOBX to Myrtle Beach get destroyed by a out of control Hurricane. Happens, has happened and will again but often they find some escape hatch (usually a trough is stronger than it appears and they slide away to the Outer Banks or just offshore. Sometimes they make a bee line and ignore everything else and go inland as Fran did and Hugo did in South Carolina or the 1893 Sea Island Hurricane in Savannah and Tybee Island. Did I mention I love Tybee Island? That whole area is under the gun from an eventual possible landfall, but the odds are no matter what happens AFTER 72 HOURS ... somewhere near the border of SC and NC Hurricane Florence will go inland. Whether she goes inland slowly or fast doesn't matter as her huge rain shield will move in and over land... if she stalls out partially over water her engine has plenty of fuel.
A very similar track isn't it.
My brother Ronnie has been obsessed with the similarity.
I've tried not to think on it..
..though I showed it the other day.
Adjust that a bit higher and you have Florence so far.
Sea Island Hurricane of 1893 had a similar track but further South .... as in it started further South and therefore came in further South. Georgia has just declared a State of Emergency.
Note hurricanes are fickle.
IF steering currents are weak...they do odd things.
Often Major Hurricanes are not as fickle as Tropical Storms.
Why? Because they are more able to bust a ridge and go North.
Best ANALOG HURRICANE GEORGES.
Despite changes to turn it kept going.
Momentum. Stubborn.
Drove forecasters crazy.
It was forecast to turn before the Islands.
Before VI and PR.
Covered more real estate in the Caribbean..
..than most storms.
Note below many zig zagging storms.
Most Tropical Storms.
Besides Camille 1969 brought us 4 messy loopers.
Here's one that went SW the WHOLE WAY.
Note it was not a Cat 4.
1906 Storm
I've lectured on her in Florida often.
AGAIN these were not major hurricanes.
And it's bothering me that ....
.....I feel this is not being taken into consideration.
It's forecast to weaken.
Remember Matthew.
Matthew didn't fall apart near South America.
There was talk land interaction....
She was forecast to stay off shore.
She scraped Cape Kennedy but no official landfall.
She did eventually make landfall.
She did not make the forecast loop back to the South.
That forecast did not verify.
It went North as much as it could.
That's what Major Hurricanes do.
Especially huge big ones.
I have very low faith in anything after 72 hours.
Until I see how Florence slows... where she slows.
When she turns back to the WNW from NW.
How strong the trof gets ...
trust me is she has a chance she will grab it.
If not she is going to spread misery across the SE.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
