A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Sunday, October 28, 2018
Hurricane Oscar Our October Surprise in the Tropical Atlantic. 8th Hurricane of the 2018 Hurricane Season. Oh....and RED SOX WON THE WORLD SERIES!!
Hurricane Oscar formed tonight a bit ahead of the original forecast and has been doing what it wants most of the day. Moving fast to the West, though that is expected to be halted at some point down the road before being swung back out to sea. It is also forecast to become a 100 MPH Hurricane and personally I think that may be conservative but as always time will tell. The advisory is below along with some discussion worth noting and the ever popular "cone" that shows the track. To be honest this was a done deal since earlier this evening. I've had one eye on Oscar and one eye on the Red Sox the last few hours. Oscar became very photogenic after a difficult beginning as it evolved into a hurricane.
Weekend Weather. Tropics? Taking a Break of Finished? Coastal Storm... GOM. Questions Abound.
Convection in the Caribbean.
Rain lingering along the Texas coast...
... continuing to flow in with a flood alert.
Cold weather clouds off the East coast.
Everyone wants to know what's happening with the weather this weekend and next week but some are wondering on the tropics and others are wishing for a snow storm. It's that time of year we start watching the Troposphere to see what may be coming down our way.
Cranky watches up above.
He lives up north.
DaBuh watches down below.
He lives Down South.
In reality we watch the troposphere...
...because what develops there and dips down...
... becomes the steering currents in the tropics.
What goes around comes around.
DaBuh loves to say that...
...it's true.
It can lift a hurricane up towards landfall...
...or it can sweep one away from landfall.
Currently there are no hurricanes forecast to form.
This time of year things can pop up fast so we watch.
...the AC isn't on that's just cool air getting in here.
Got my velvet sweat pants from Victoria's Secrets on :)
Short sleeve top in a matching color.
We are moving bit by bit into Autumn.
Took off the hot pink nail polish...
..tried a new color Burnished Bronze.
It looked like a Fall Shade ;)
Patchy frost possible on Monday...
Brrr for Bronze.
As for the tropics until that flow stops flowing...
We need to watch the Caribbean.
And any stalled out cold fronts that linger.
That means the GOM and off the FL coast as well.
Late October and early November can produce hurricanes.
On this day in history... Wilma did the Yucatan.
A few days later she did Florida.
She caught a cold front.
Some people stop watching the tropics after the first good cold front goes through Florida and simply say things like "it's all zonal" and what they mean is if they aren't getting any huge CV Hurricanes they don't care and aren't chasing any subtropical or hybrid storm. I'm not that person. I watch with one eye on the tropics and one eye up at the North Pole. No ... not looking for Santa though might be wondering what Superman is doing up there hiding out but he's probably just enjoying the snow. Everyone wants to know about snow or a hurricane, but the reality is that weather happens in between in places that wish they could get rid of the weather. Texas for example is so stuck in a wet pattern and that's common this time of year some years. Caribbean moisture is still moving up towards the Gulf or Mexico and there's much rain but not a lot of spinning going on. No name storms wash out bridges, destroy WHOLE small communities built in the cheaper low lands close to where people work and they get no press. But tropical destinations along the coasts that have destruction get lots of press. You could say it's not the same but it is and it's a matter of perspective. If your community was washed away by a Flash Flood that wasn't even on the radar the night before when you were decorating for Halloween and putting together a few things for Christmas presents it's the same devastating, horrific catastrophe. Oh you heard a neighborhood of trailers were destroyed so you think somehow that it's not as big as a beach front home that looks like the beach front home you always dreamed of...
A statistic I read this morning said that 30 to 50% of the people in the path of Hurricane Michael live within the poverty range. That might be higher in the part of North Carolina flooded out by rain from Hurricane Florence. To the people who live in the trailer parks and work in the farmland in Florida, Georgia, Carolinas and Texas from the No Name storm they lost their homes and their jobs. I was told it takes a good fifteen years for a pecan orchard in Texas to really produce, that's a long term disaster for people in those parts and I can bet you money that in five years Panama City will look more beautiful than it ever was before Michael. I know because we went through it in Homestead, some of the poorer areas looked like beautiful suburbs three to five years later as money flowed into the area in the same way devastating hurricanes winds blew in with Andrew. Money flows after a hurricane into some areas and other areas money creeps in and the towns barely come back and the people who lived and worked there pick up and move away. Just inland about 30 minutes from Myrtle Beach or less there are tobacco farms, cotton farms and farms that grown winter wheat and the landscape is filled with small trailer communities on the edges of the farms and small towns that all look the same in that they have a few old beautiful buildings and some store somewhere has been changed into a Chinese Buffet. Drive the back roads someday they are beautiful and an education about what it takes to make a country like the USA. Not everyone lives in the cities and not everyone is rich and owns a beach home or a ski chalet but life is way better here than it is in most places across the world. If your home, trailer or beachfront dream house was destroyed your world was destroyed. Some have good insurance or money put away and will rebuild there or somewhere else and others will simply pick up and move on to some other town where they can make a living and send their kids to school.
Or take a drive somewhere out in the country and look at the Fall Foliage or drive down to the coast and spread some money about encouraging life to get back to normal along the coast of North Carolina. Not sure what I am doing this weekend. Maybe staying close to home and watching football or take a long drive somewhere or maybe go to the Farmer's Market for fresh Fall produce that is bountiful this time of year round here. Time will tell. I'll update the blog should anything happen worth updating. If the models start to come on as fast as Jack Frost is nipping at our door I'll post some information on them. Have a great weekend if you are a Red Sox fan and I am .... you'll be wearing your colors and having a smile on your face. I'd play the Fenway Park video but this series shows we can win anywhere even on the road and we have done that before haven't we? I just realized I have a charm not just a bunch of tee shirts and a way too big oversized tank top I sleep in sometimes.
Besos BobbiStorm.
@bobbistorm on Twitter
If you aren't a big Red Sox fan here's another video below.
Ps. Going to put this here and let y'all think on it a bit and let it sink in that being a mother can be empowering and doesn't mean you can't "have a life" and continue doing what you love. Most 1st world and many 2nd and 3rd world countries have had women leaders and they were often at the top of their game without having to worry how to balance careers. Women in both political parties work in Washington while raising children and even being active grandmothers. I like to think God gives mothers an extra measure of strength especially in today's world where mother's work full time and have to balance being a mother and working in careers from Publix to being an Ambassador at the United Nations. Being a mother takes a lot of navigating and often but not always the father's do their share making it all work. But either way... she does a good job and makes a good point. So this is for any young girls out there... you CAN be a METEOROLOGIST and you can work on air or behind the scenes and you can be anything you want to be you just got to work at it hard as success takes hard work and sometimes a measure of luck. Good luck!
Jose Flirts With Fenway Park ... OBX to Cape Cod & Beyond Watch Him Carefully. Beach Erosion, Rip Tides Possible. And... TD14.. Lee Maria in the Wings... Stay Prepared
Before I talk in depth on Jose I'm going to say this about the mysterious looper. Watch the wind probs more than the cone. If your city is in the wind probs then you need to keep an eye on Jose. I didn't say obsess or panic but he may be coming close to you and you need to watch him. He most likely will stay offshore, though I cannot guarantee that and if I think he could make landfall I will say so even if it's not the center of the NHC cone. Cones are for ice cream not hurricanes and especially not hurricanes at high latitudes where the winds often spread out at the surface and effects from storm surge beach erosion and riptides can be felt even while it's gliding by offshore. Note discussion below showing that Jose is forecast to regain the title hurricane again. What I'm wondering on is if it stalls or loops again in his middle age. Maybe his old age as we've been tracking him a long time. So this bears watching...
There are a lot of cities in there from South Carolina and the Outer Banks all the way up to New England, so you might wanna check and see if your city is in the wind probabilities as merely a measure of how often you need to check on Jose down the tropical road. Bermuda is in those probabilities too... so obviously it could stay far off shore.
Then we have TD14.
Short track.
Models below.
Does it die at sea?
Go out to sea.
Or go to see Miami?
(it rhymed don't panic)
It could more likely ...
..go to Carolinas.
DOWN the road.
Or not.
Weather is fluid.
Long term models iffy at best.
Watching TD14 from Savannah.
NOT Montana.
Sort of a virtual vacation.
My hotel thinks I'm out west.
Below are a group of models you can see.
From www.windy.com
They are not to panic.
They are just to show...
....possibilities.
The model shows up in red bottom right.
For example below is the EURO
Kind of close.
Kissing land.
Touching land.
Reaching out...
Singing Sweet Carolina..
uh uh uh..
Trying to see Fenway Pank
Stop obsessing on Jose.
Look down below.
Another storm forms.
Wind view.
Lots of storms.
Tropics active.
Ouch...
So may possibilities.
OH MY GOODNESS...
Yeah... scary huh?
So many storms.
So many models.
Watch them on satellite imagery.
Never date a model..
..they are unfaithful
In closing I got to hit the road cause I need to be in South Florida by sunset. Going to be in Walnut Creek, North Miami Beach and Hollywood. Who knows how far South I will get this trip. Who knows where Jose will really go.... down the road. Is he a teaser, a flirt or the real thing? Once he starts really moving, cruising we will know for sure. As for the Lee and Maria which ever one will be which... one of them could give South Florida a real scare and then move up towards the Carolinas... following in big brother Jose's path? Stay tuned... going to get me some more incredible coffee in Savannah this morning before hitting the road again.
And I didn't say it but many of those models show another hit in the islands. More in depth on that later.
Spring became the summer... and then the summer becomes Autumn and Hurricanes reach out, touching us, touching you ... and we need to be prepared... always..
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter for updates in real time.
Ps I'll proof later and update later
Ps... uh uh oh.... So I'm wondering is Jose a Red Sox fan or a Yankees fan?
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
