Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, November 17, 2019

Updated! NHC Ups Yellow Circle to 50% Orange Circle in the Atlantic......As the Coastal Storm Begins to Move Up the Coast.. Getting Ready to Lift North Along the Coast ...




Odds now up to 50% in the 5 day.
40% in the 2 day.
NHC really fast tracking this system.
When they like something it's apparent.


Has more "there there" tonight.
Also being sheared, not in the best environment.
Not closed off as shown by the image below.


But getting there.
Where's it going?
Models show it following the leader.
As I pointed out this morning.
This is a few days from now.
Models show various variations.




So yes the Carolina Panthers lost.
Our storm slowly began moving away.
The Yellow circle became an Orange Circle...
...as the NHC seems to really like it.

Sebastien is the next name on the list.



This loop shows when a system begins to spin.
It shows MANY things....
...but it's a great predictive tool.

Took a nice drive up into the country a bit.
The Falls River Recreation Area.
That means the dam...
...by the river where they made a lake.
Too cold up on the path by the lake.
Sat down by river shoots out from the dam.
Hasn't been much color this year.
And what color we had pretty much blew away...
...in the last two storms.



Pretty tho... always.
And on the way near the house...
Street near where I live.
Usually more color in mid November.
Lots of trees whose leaves have blown away.



***


Morning Visible.
Eye like center there.
Briefly there... but beautiful.
Gotta enjoy what you got when you got it!



Yeah there's a 30% chance according to NHC..
...of something to it's SE forming.
But we can talk on that tomorrow...
...if it's still there.
Who can ignore this beautiful spinner?


Look how picture perfect our no name storm is...
.... and Monday it's your storm up the coast.
Because what starts on the Carolina coast...
..doesn't stay here this time of year.
As we dance our way into Winter.


From the Capes of the Carolinas...
...to the tip of Long Island.

Wind advisories all the way up the coast.





Watch the sea foam on the beach...
...gosh I love that.
And the erosion doesn't show well on the video.
Beaches been eroded for a while.
Only getting worse.
Winter storms after tropical systems.
Barrier island beaches ...
...always rearrange with the storms.

Listening to meteorologists online and on air talk today makes my heart beat faster for football on a Sunday afternoon with a quasi storm stronger than many of our named tropical storms this past summer. Transference of energy.... handing off as the system waits for the strong winter storm to throw a long pass and for the coastal low to pick up yardage and go all the way up the East coast impacting other much loved beaches on the way.... the same way it played with our beaches down here in the Carolinas.


Online energy is wonderful.
Always funny stuff here from him.



Images, videos, discussion.


And as always detailed explanations.

"And tomorrow for New England"

Check that out... this thing will take off soon!

And always there's some cruise ship drama...




Truly Annapolis is beautiful.
I like New Bern better to be honest.
But well... food, beverages.. 
it's a vacation right.




Love it really.
Weather, earth, science, history.
Music, dancing......

A bit of weather history today here.

Good article in the Wall Street Journal on Project Storm Fury; leaves out a lot about it's earlier days and I could say much but will leave for another day. Love the use of the word "seriously" here as controlling the weather is the stuff dreams are made of ....    And nations do it on a small scale all the time be it rain for crops or no rain on opening day ceremonies at the Olympics. But controlling big hurricanes as romantically heroic as it sounds pales in comparison to the every day enhancing rainfall for crops to grow in their season. A good read on some history, sort of a primer and well worth your time.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-the-u-s-tried-to-control-hurricanes-11573880461

Going to leave you with a link to read.
If you want...when you want.
Or save it for another day.
May all your favorite teams win!
May you enjoy your favorite weather....
... and be surrounded with love, friends and life...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me on Twitter.... for real time updates.
Follow my friends.... 
.... you won't find anyone like them.






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posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:28 AM 0 comments

Friday, October 04, 2019

Enjoy the Weekend. NHC Watching 2 Areas with Low Yellow Chances. It's Just a Matter of Time Before Something Forms... Til Then... Enjoy the Weekend. Check Back Monday ;)




The NHC Main Page is sort of a Maze ...
...an interactive game we play.
From June 1st to November 30th.


Area in the Yucatan down low on probabilities.
Never believed in the westbound system myself.
As I've said I'm watching for Mid October myself.
Generally if something is going to happen...
....that's the watch time frame.

As always late in the season we have Mid Atlantic Systems.

But when you click on the main screen for Day 2.
You get this satellite imagery below.
That tells the real story.


And addendum to that is my video below.
Lots to look at as it's not cloudless.
But nothing impending about to come together.


Dabuh God Bless Him is always watching.
And he knows, he's wise.
Meteorologists are great with hard to earn degrees.
But unless they know the water and the clouds...
...and the can smell the weather.
It's all academics.


One of my friends at the NHC for years....
...takes awesome photographs of clouds and storms.
He studies them on the computer and out his window.
Bill Gray flew into huge thunderstorms....
...studying them, doing research.
Others like Wes below love to share images.


And what I'll say about that comment is this.....
....no the sun wasn't "kind" to us in Raleigh yesterday.
But it's a last kiss... 
a fair ye well as we move towards Fall.

I went out to watch the sunset last night too.


It was warm, beautiful.
And the sky was Fall Colors.

Like the little yellow leaves dropping in the Carolinas.
So to does the NHC drop yellow circles on the map.
And some have potential to go orange....
...maybe even red like a sugar maple.

Hurricane Season is really a Fall Sport....
...as that's when things ramp up and slide down.

I'll be honest.
Models do show things out in the Atlantic.
Maybe a wave off of Africa.
That SW Caribbean bugaboo.
But nothing to worry or think on this weekend.


A large area of convection remains anchored in place.
A drop of color by the Yuctan reminds us to watch.
Further East we have a wave train.
A low riding wave train.
One of those wave can get into the SW Carib....
...and the light the spark.
You know that song....
Come on baby light my fire?


And a little ghost in the Caribbean goes BOO!


So debating what song to sing.

October is about waiting....
Waiting for fall to really begin.
Waiting for your football team to win.
Waiting for the World Series.
Waiting for Halloween.
Waiting for snow season.
And the list of waiting goes on.

Stop and take a minute to wonder....
..and watch the world go by and enjoy it's beauty.
My daughter landed in Asheville NC this morning.
She took a pic from the plane and said...
"I love it here and I haven't left the airport!"
Funny I know that feeling.

So take a mental picture.
Breathe.
Exhale.
Enjoy.
Have a beautiful weekend.

Let's think on next week ... next week.
It's that time of year we wait and watch...
...and things begin to change.

Yes it was 100 degrees in Raleigh yesterday...
...but it's going to turn cooler.
It's just a matter of time.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:40 AM 0 comments

Friday, October 19, 2018

Weekend Weather. Tropics? Taking a Break of Finished? Coastal Storm... GOM. Questions Abound.



Convection in the Caribbean.
Rain lingering along the Texas coast...
... continuing to flow in with a flood alert.
Cold weather clouds off the East coast.

Everyone wants to know what's happening with the weather this weekend and next week but some are wondering on the tropics and others are wishing for a snow storm. It's that time of year we start watching the Troposphere to see what may be coming down our way.


Cranky watches up above.
He lives up north.
DaBuh watches down below.
He lives Down South.


In reality we watch the troposphere...
...because what develops there and dips down...
... becomes the steering currents in the tropics.

What goes around comes around.
DaBuh loves to say that...
...it's true.
It can lift a hurricane up towards landfall...
...or it can sweep one away from landfall.

Currently there are no hurricanes forecast to form.
This time of year things can pop up fast so we watch.
But rain is forecast to fall and fall and fall.
This Fall of 2018 


With or without a name Texas gets rain.


The image above is from www.windy.com
They are awesome and they get better and better.
You can switch from wind to rain.
Windwise nothing really develops.

An area tries to close off..


But doesn't really...


Epac is active.


And a storm could form off the Carolinas.


But the easy money is on off the tip of Long Island
South New England.


Old school model view.


That's for NEXT weekend.
If that plays out.
I predict people will start using fireplaces soon.
Carolinas and Virginia in for cold weather.
Front would reach down into Florida.



One thing that is certain is cool air is moving down.
The AC in my house is obviously set perfect.
But the AC is not on... 
Mother Nature is providing the cool air.
Love it.
I really love it.

And a short plug for the NC State Fair.
If you live round here...
Go.. enjoy it. 
Saturday may be a wash out.
Sunday the last day will be beautiful.
It's just fun to walk around and enjoy being outside.
What you do is not as important as that.
You can enjoy being outside again.
Eat an Ice Cream or something fried.
Fair weather is fair.
Not too hot. 
Not too cold.

As for the forecast.
Here's the 3 day.
Mike has it up on www.spaghettimodels.com
Scroll down he's got so much there.
He adds snow maps in during Winter.


allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

One of the best measures of what is happening.
It changes in real time like the forecast.
Here's the link below:


It changes in real time because.......
...weather is fluid and always changing.

The above is actually reflected in this link below:


The flow goes FAST across the Caribbean....
...into the GOM.
Where it mingles with leftovers from the EPAC
And creates a rainy set up that goes on and on.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

A front flies off the East coast.
Watch that dry air race off the Carolinas.
Oh my goodness yes...
I'd turn the AC up cause it's cold but...
...the AC isn't on that's just cool air getting in here.
Got my velvet sweat pants from Victoria's Secrets on :)
Short sleeve top in a matching color.
We are moving bit by bit into Autumn.
Took off the hot pink nail polish...
..tried a new color Burnished Bronze.
It looked like a Fall Shade ;)
Patchy frost possible on Monday... 
Brrr for Bronze.

As for the tropics until that flow stops flowing...
We need to watch the Caribbean.
And any stalled out cold fronts that linger.
That means the GOM and off the FL coast as well.
Late October and early November can produce hurricanes.
On this day in history... Wilma did the Yucatan.
A few days later she did Florida.
She caught a cold front.


Some people stop watching the tropics after the first good cold front goes through Florida and simply say things like "it's all zonal" and what they mean is if they aren't getting any huge CV Hurricanes they don't care and aren't chasing any subtropical or hybrid storm. I'm not that person. I watch with one eye on the tropics and one eye up at the North Pole. No ... not looking for Santa though might be wondering what Superman is doing up there hiding out but he's probably just enjoying the snow. Everyone wants to know about snow or a hurricane, but the reality is that weather happens in between in places that wish they could get rid of the weather. Texas for example is so stuck in a wet pattern and that's common this time of year some years. Caribbean moisture is still moving up towards the Gulf or Mexico and there's much rain but not a lot of spinning going on. No name storms wash out bridges, destroy WHOLE small communities built in the cheaper low lands close to where people work and they get no press. But tropical destinations along the coasts that have destruction get lots of press. You could say it's not the same but it is and it's a matter of perspective. If your community was washed away by a Flash Flood that wasn't even on the radar the night before when you were decorating for Halloween and putting together a few things for Christmas presents it's the same devastating, horrific catastrophe. Oh you heard a neighborhood of trailers were destroyed so you think somehow that it's not as big as a beach front home that looks like the beach front home you always dreamed of... 

A statistic I read this morning said that 30 to 50% of the people in the path of Hurricane Michael live within the poverty range. That might be higher in the part of North Carolina flooded out by rain from Hurricane Florence. To the people who live in the trailer parks and work in the farmland in Florida, Georgia, Carolinas and Texas from the No Name storm they lost their homes and their jobs. I was told it takes a good fifteen years for a pecan orchard in Texas to really produce, that's a long term disaster for people in those parts and I can bet you money that in five years Panama City will look more beautiful than it ever was before Michael. I know because we went through it in Homestead, some of the poorer areas looked like beautiful suburbs three to five years later as money flowed into the area in the same way devastating hurricanes winds blew in with Andrew. Money flows after a hurricane into some areas and other areas money creeps in and the towns barely come back and the people who lived and worked there pick up and move away. Just inland about 30 minutes from Myrtle Beach or less there are tobacco farms, cotton farms and farms that grown winter wheat and the landscape is filled with small trailer communities on the edges of the farms and small towns that all look the same in that they have a few old beautiful buildings and some store somewhere has been changed into a Chinese Buffet. Drive the back roads someday they are beautiful and an education about what it takes to make a country like the USA. Not everyone lives in the cities and not everyone is rich and owns a beach home or a ski chalet but life is way better here than it is in most places across the world. If your home, trailer or beachfront dream house was destroyed your world was destroyed. Some have good insurance or money put away and will rebuild there or somewhere else and others will simply pick up and move on to some other town where they can make a living and send their kids to school.

Some good local news stories in this link below:


Or take a drive somewhere out in the country and look at the Fall Foliage or drive down to the coast and spread some money about encouraging life to get back to normal along the coast of North Carolina. Not sure what I am doing this weekend. Maybe staying close to home and watching football or take a long drive somewhere or maybe go to the Farmer's Market for fresh Fall produce that is bountiful this time of year round here. Time will tell. I'll update the blog should anything happen worth updating. If the models start to come on as fast as Jack Frost is nipping at our door I'll post some information on them. Have a great weekend if you are a Red Sox fan and I am .... you'll be wearing your colors and having a smile on your face. I'd play the Fenway Park video but this series shows we can win anywhere even on the road and we have done that before haven't we? I just realized I have a charm not just a bunch of tee shirts and a way too big oversized tank top I sleep in sometimes.


Besos BobbiStorm.
@bobbistorm on Twitter

If you aren't a big Red Sox fan here's another video below.

Ps. Going to put this here and let y'all think on it a bit and let it sink in that being a mother can be empowering and doesn't mean you can't "have a life" and continue doing what you love. Most 1st world and many 2nd and 3rd world countries have had women leaders and they were often at the top of their game without having to worry how to balance careers. Women in both political parties work in Washington while raising children and even being active grandmothers. I like to think God gives mothers an extra measure of strength especially in today's world where mother's work full time and have to balance being a mother and working in careers from Publix to being an Ambassador at the United Nations. Being a mother takes a lot of navigating and often but not always the father's do their share making it all work. But either way... she does a good job and makes a good point. So this is for any young girls out there... you CAN be a METEOROLOGIST and you can work on air or behind the scenes and you can be anything you want to be you just got to work at it hard as success takes hard work and sometimes a measure of luck. Good luck!


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posted by BobbiStorm @ 10:18 AM 1 comments

Thursday, August 09, 2018

Debby Update. Hurricane Season 2018 As Normal As Can Be.. Why You Ask?


Quick review of what's new in the tropics.


Despite all the doom and gloom in the discussion regarding the forecast future of Subtropical Storm Debby she found a sweet spot in the normally cold North Atlantic and had a burst of intensity allowing her to maintain her reign in the tropical Atlantic (or not so tropical but feels like tropical) Basin. Note the discussion shown below explaining why she is still an entity this morning but why she will most likely be killed off later today or tomorrow.


Map shown below.
I really prefer their maps.
Love the NHC but map wise they are lacking.


Why is this important you ask? I mean do we really need to worry about a storm so far North it's closer to the North Pole and Northern Europe than most tropical cities such as Galveston, New Orleans, Miami or Charleston? Yes it matters and yes it is a subtropical storm in the tropical variety the same way an apple is related to a rose plant. 

Trivia of the day here:


"Apples, peaches, pears, and plums are all from the Rose family (Rosaceae). , strawberries, and cherries are too. If you look closely at the flowers on these herbs, shrubs, and trees, you will notice the similarities. Flowering plants from the Rose family have a cup-like shape with five petals and oval-shaped leaves."

It is what it is and it's the D storm and that means we are waiting for the fifth named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season in early August before most years have even had their first named storm. Yet, with nothing to really write about meteorologists are going on and on about how slow this season is likely to be based on numerous meteorological abbreviations and updated forecasts for this season. Note if you have to constantly update your "forecast" it is not a "forecast" any longer it is merely a "state of the tropics update" named a forecast. It's a real time in the middle of the month updated forecast because your previous forecast looks like it might be a bust but we won't know until November 30th really how slow or busy, quiet or active the 2018 Hurricane Season will be until then. So everyone is writing whatever they can to make sense of it all.

I don't really think it's that unusual and it's going to be a pretty average season overall. Many weak storms with names that didn't amount to much to remember. One or two larger, stronger hurricanes that we may remember for years to come especially if they make landfall. A season that will come to life in it's own time most likely around prime time in a few weeks. Everything changes and this too shall pass in that the Saharan Dust won't be a player all season and the waters are already warming up and the typical change in wind flow patterns will be more favorable to tropical development for a brief time before people begin to wonder when the first snow will show up in their town.


Dior brought out their new fall palette today!
It's called Volcanic ;)
See the pattern here?
Hyping the Hawaii volcano...
Why they don't do a weather palette I don't know.
Maybe they are more into geology?


Looks a lot like the colors of the sunset from Hector.

So back to the tropics and maps.



Why we should worry on this season?
High latitude storms.
Will that be a pattern?
Or was it just a random happenstance?

Let's look at Africa up close.


More tropical waves departing from Africa.
Recently another pattern has shown itself.
Continued convection down in the Caribbean.
Down near the Yuctan.


Yes SAL is still there....
...but his time on the clock is limited.
Much like Debby.


Note that tropical wave reaching out to the west...
...towards the last wave that made it across.
The new one coming off.
ITCZ is juicing up and coming to life.
Just in time for prime time.



So keep it loose, enjoy your day and know that today is what it is and it is what you make it. Grasp the day, seize the opportunity to get some sun or bake a cake or go buy ice cream time and money permitting. It may rain today but the sun will shine again eventually. And, it it's shining today it may be storming by late this afternoon. Enjoy the moment. Do not get lost in the fighting online about everything from whether the EURO model is better than the GFS or who won the last election forgetting to realize the next election is less than two years away. Stay centered on the now and what you have in front of you ... as he said in Twister ;)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter





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posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:38 AM 0 comments

Sunday, November 05, 2017

Will 95L Become Rina? 80% Chances Posted by NHC. Mid Atlantic. Autumn Leaves Falling ...

95L
Possibly Rina in the Morning.

rgb_lalo-animated.gif (720Γ—480)

Looks a lot like last night.

Shear near by... 
obvious in the loop below.

rb_lalo-animated.gif (720Γ—480)

Consistent and stubborn.
2 commonalities of named storms 
NHC curerrently has it at 80%


 X marks the spot!



Earthnull shows winds.


I guess we are waiting for 1st morning visible.

Models show possibilities, Subtropicals (or Tropical Storms) form in real time painfully sometimes and yet usually they move out to sea. But, luckily, not all storms are Harvey, Irma or Maria. Things have been a bit flat all around the last few days. Fronts are trying to make a dent into the mild weather we have been having in the Carolinas and Virginia. Strong weather possibilities exist shown below the water vapor loop.

latest_wv_loop.gif (535Γ—440)


Until fronts start rolling again.
The tropics should be quiet near the coast.
This is November's dance.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799Γ—559)

Meanwhile...
Here in Raleigh....
...Autumn Leaves...



Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... obviously I'll update tomorrow morning.
As always waiting on the NHC to make a decision. 





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posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:53 PM 0 comments