A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Sunday, November 17, 2019
Updated! NHC Ups Yellow Circle to 50% Orange Circle in the Atlantic......As the Coastal Storm Begins to Move Up the Coast.. Getting Ready to Lift North Along the Coast ...
When you struggle for words & try not to editorialize.... 50% chances for orange area being monitored by the NHC for some sort of designation. Invest should be soon. Morning visible a bit later. pic.twitter.com/SN2FRoZ4Z5
Orange Juice loop ... used to call it that way back when. Shows moisture and itβs a great tool to see when it begins to spin up. 50/50 chances but by the time I Post this could be 60% NHC suddenly bullish π€·π»ββοΈ pic.twitter.com/ENjwWxlXCR
This loop shows when a system begins to spin.
It shows MANY things....
...but it's a great predictive tool.
Took a nice drive up into the country a bit.
The Falls River Recreation Area.
That means the dam...
...by the river where they made a lake.
Too cold up on the path by the lake.
Sat down by river shoots out from the dam.
Hasn't been much color this year.
And what color we had pretty much blew away...
...in the last two storms.
Went up to the lake today ... Fall of Neuse River near the dam to get a look at #fallcolors but this past weeks windy cold storm blew many of the leaves away. Wintry look bit by bit. Front by front. Windy very cold. pic.twitter.com/U5dQilkHGc
Pretty tho... always.
And on the way near the house...
Street near where I live.
Usually more color in mid November.
Lots of trees whose leaves have blown away.
Lastly a bit a color in my neighborhood ... maybe if the sun stays out tomorrow. Itβs beautiful in the sunshine. pic.twitter.com/bGpeijh1NR
Check out the beach erosion on Croatan Beach as the NNE wind gusts up to 40 MPH. The highest of the high tides at 10:38 AM here in VA Beach and one homeowner thinks they'll lose the fence again. We're live on @weatherchannel#vawx#waves@NWSWakefieldVApic.twitter.com/WqJgntNtFl
Listening to meteorologists online and on air talk today makes my heart beat faster for football on a Sunday afternoon with a quasi storm stronger than many of our named tropical storms this past summer. Transference of energy.... handing off as the system waits for the strong winter storm to throw a long pass and for the coastal low to pick up yardage and go all the way up the East coast impacting other much loved beaches on the way.... the same way it played with our beaches down here in the Carolinas.
Good article in the Wall Street Journal on Project Storm Fury; leaves out a lot about it's earlier days and I could say much but will leave for another day. Love the use of the word "seriously" here as controlling the weather is the stuff dreams are made of .... And nations do it on a small scale all the time be it rain for crops or no rain on opening day ceremonies at the Olympics. But controlling big hurricanes as romantically heroic as it sounds pales in comparison to the every day enhancing rainfall for crops to grow in their season. A good read on some history, sort of a primer and well worth your time.
11 PM HURRICANE DORIAN UPDATE. MODELS. TRACK. After Islands Dorian Approaching Florida. Virgin Islands In Crosshairs NOW. EAST COAST IN PLAY LATER. LABOR DAY MAJOR HURRICANE DORIAN.
You understand looking at this ...
Everything from Savannah to top of Key Largo...
IN the 5 Day Cone.
That's a wide cone.
Similar to previous cone.
Many questions for down the road.
Short term the cone is very narrow.
Radar presentation tonight good.
Better than the satellite image.
Important discussion to note.
Always good to read it carefully.
Subject to uncertainty.
Similar to previous cone.
People ask me always "WHEN?"
NHC has this graphic.
I have to admit it's a bit large.
Most people are asking me "WHAT?"
Again let me show you the NRL map.
Closer to that map.
Covering a lot of bases.
So that's it for the day.
Just too soon to say.
But landfall looks clear.
Where?
Can't say yet.
Review again what I wrote below please.
Thanks for your patience and feedback.
Sweet Tropical Dreams
BobbiStorm.
Ps... last model run below.
Newest set of models shown below.
And comparison of today's models below that.
Note this was for today Wednesday.
I asked if he would do it tomorrow.
He said he would.
Again everything changes often.
But good to see...
Here's a look at the latest models for #HurricaneDorian. The GFS (American model) has the farthest north landfall, near Daytona Beach. ICON (German model) as far south as Miami. Trusty ECMWF & HWRF suggesting the Vero Beach proximity. Stay tuned! pic.twitter.com/RzCOaTo2bA
If they are watching out for theirs... you do the same.
Showing this image below that Josh put up of the eye of Dorian.
The eye of Dorian over the Virgin Islands.
Why?
It's a good image.
And because the Virgin Islands were not supposed to see the eye.
No eye was forecast to develop.
And TS Dorian was forecast to move far to the West of there.
36 hours earlier and then the forecast changed.
Dorian has been a tricky storm from the beginning.
So expect more tricks in the days ahead.
Here is an example of how the cone has changed so far.
The center of #Dorian has been consistently on the right side of the cone and we'll see if that plays out in future model runs and eventual landfall. Over the last 2 days, you can see that shift in the early period, but not as much at the end of the @NHC_Atlantic 4casts. pic.twitter.com/CODc1nisy9
The logic behind the cone from the NHC and the current forecast track for Dorian is shown below but remember it can change fast as the atmosphere is fluid and each movement it makes relies on some factor upstream or downstream and just as everyone expected it to hit Hispaniola and to have it possibly fall apart a bit it changed direction on a dime and sped off towards the Virgin Islands avoiding the tall mountains and intensifying over warm water while pummeling the Virgin Islands ... video below from a sailboat in the middle of Hurricane Dorian ...turn the volume up.
There is a cold front moving down across the East side of the country with dry, high pressure moving in behind it. Another one reinforces that behind it and in theory this produces a strong high pressure ridge that blocks Dorian from moving North. Why is that important? Because hurricanes want to go towards the poles, they are energy transfer machines basically. And a stronger hurricane feels a stronger urge to go North. A high pressure ridge can and will block it from doing so. It is worth mentioning here that a Major Hurricane can sometimes make it's own weather and continue heading into high pressure whereas a Category 1 or 2 would be blocked. If you play Chess you understand this... if not trust me. A Major Hurricane will fight to pull North to the left...and often a hurricane is forecast to go WNW and yet it pulls NW. Sometimes a ridge builds in as it did with Andrew and Andrew turned West. Every hurricane is different and unique I can't say it enough. And in this case the atmosphere to the East is Florida is wet, moist and juicy as the remnants of Erin are floating down the coast and and it makes a bad situation worse as low pressure likes to go towards low pressure and stays away from high pressure.
Between the recon and jets flying into Dorian and around Dorian sampling the wind and atmosphere and all the different NWS offices along the coast sampling the air by the coast the next few model runs should be more accurate and in real time we will see what Dorian does after it leaves the Caribbean behind and moves up along the Bahamas. The NHC is doing their job, you have to do your job and that is monitor the movement, intensity, size and forward speed of the storm and listen to your local authorities. We will know more tomorrow and even more the day after tomorrow and that's true.
So now there are many questions I know.
What do you do?
Breaking this down in parts.
1. If you live in South Florida you should be carefully monitoring any changes in track or development (intensity, size, forward motion) of Dorian and begin preparing for what you would do should the cone be nudged further to the South and look as if it may come to parts of South Florida. I'm not saying that will happen but it could happen though at this point it is less likely. You should already have batteries and water so stock up if you haven't done so on medication, diapers, pet food and anything you need in case power is out or it takes a long time to rebuild. Hopefully that doesn't happen but living in paradise comes with a price tag and that price tag may be extra snacks, food and supplies to get through power being out or being out of work for several days at best.
2. If you live in Central Florida and let's make that wide so let's say anything North of WPB up to Daytona including the Lake inland and Tampa on the West Coast. Also know that if a Major Hurricane would cross that Lake there would be waves and storm surge there and inland flooding can happen in some places so follow your local sources. Do not rely on the fact that almost no major hurricane has done that and they always curve away as each hurricane is it's own beast with it's own unique steering currents. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. The 1928 hurricane came in around WPB and headed straight for the Lake, it can happen.
3. If you live in North Florida being North of Daytona across the Panhandle watch it more carefully than say Miami as it's always worse to be NW of a Major Hurricane than on the SW side of it at it's approach as hurricanes always try to go poleward (North) and if there is ANY weakness in the ridge Dorian will find that weakness and bust through the same way it changed course from the Mona Passage and headed NW towards the weakness in the dry air and ridge and busted through while becoming a hurricane in the process. It may rarely happen but it could happen as Dora proved in the past.
Georgia and the Carolinas watch Dorian carefully as you know this dance and this drill better than most, what begins in Florida doesn't always stay in Florida and the end game is a crap shoot as just six hours ago both the EURO and the GFS showed impact in Charleston after Florida and now that's off the table. It can easily be back on the table to morrow.
Video from Shaun Kadison on her boat on St. Thomas, near Charlotte Amalie during the #Dorian northern eyewall pic.twitter.com/n3pdMDeB0P
Just want to remind people reading today how fast things change.
Virgin Islands were supposed to be far to the East yesterday morning.
Things in the tropics change fast.
They can be very fluid.
2 days ago they felt safer because Mona Passage.
But that changed fast.
So keep that in mind while seeing models.
And watching the NHC Cone.
Good wide loop showing Hurricane Dorian forming.
Moved fast to the N though officially NW
Long loop.
Let's you see how Hurricane Dorian came to be.
Pressure dropping....
Note small storm still.
BUT... once in Bahamas will grow in size.
Nowhere near the Mona Passage.
I only repeat this as when looking at models.
And watching shifts in the NHC Cone.
Know there can be a wide margin of error often.
So do what you can in case it hits you ....
...the way it hit the Virgin Islands.
After all the talk on Hispaniola.
Also showing oddly despite different solutions...
...over Florida or near Florida.
Euro and GFS AGREE on it impacting SC.
Go figure.
How it gets there is extremely different route.
About a day apart.
But the drama goes on and on.
Dorian Drama.
And models change often.
Where we are now.
Oh and that happened.
Finally.
As models can make you nuts.....
...good to listen to experts.
A very good video from my friend.
He's good.
Listen to him if you have the time.
It's 20 minutes.
Explains variables and what has happened.
How we got here....
...where we are going.
Note discussion above.
Once Dorian reaches favorable environment.
Expected to intensify to Cat 3 Major Hurricane.
Then below is the next part.
Labor Day Hurricane Forecast Headed to Florida Beaches.
Asking you not to lock in on any one place now tho.
Remember yesterday morning NHC had Dorian in Mona Passage.
Now 1 day later it's EAST of PR in Virgin Islands.
Keep that in mind.
Everyone should prepare according to your needs now.
Could it slip up the coast?
Yes.
For those who follow on Twitter you will know I've said it could turn sharper in the short term to the right (meaning more NW to NNW) and then later turn sharper back to the West to WNW. It's been a concern I mentioned. It either gets to where the ridge is in time to be blocked and pushed towards Florida and if so ...really ...where exactly? Too soon to be sure. Or it finds a weakness and crawls up the coast looking for a weakness and so far Dorian has been excellent in finding a weakness in a ridge as it did yesterday. So prepare, don't panic... calm down and think on "what if" and do what you need but some beach city is going to get slammed on Labor Day Weekend and that's a big, HUGE hit for beach towns that rely on Labor Day Weekend revenue $$$ to get them through the winter when the tourists go back home. It's a huge financial loss for a good part of the SE Coast as trust me people are changing their plans now... as soon as they hear "MAJOR HURRICANE" even if not sure where they are NOT going to Florida or Georgia and up in the Carolinas they are watching very carefully.
The western cloud shield of Tropical Storm #Dorian is now pushing across eastern Puerto Rico. Dorian looks healthy on satellite imagery. PR is forecast to experience 'Tropical Storm' force winds this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/iYcuOqh4v5
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
