A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, September 12, 2019
Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 Advisories (from Invest 95L) Humberto Next Name Up. Link to #HURRICANEMAN Video from Hurricane Dorian @icyclone
Potential means they feel a Cyclone can form...
...and it's close enough they need to issue information.
Understand everyone from Raleigh to the Mobile, Alabama and other inland cities have the probability, even if remote, of having Tropical Storm force winds. So don't ignore it, it has real potential. And not to beat a horse ... the system that may form behind it also have potential to trace this same track according to the models. The end of this Tropical Drama has not been written yet so do not write it off as just a messy blob. The NHC doesn't take posting PTC advisories lightly. Note Grand Bahama IS in this cone especially Freeport Bimini just off of the South Florida coast. That is why I have been so concerned people get money to those who are helping NOW because the season is far from over.
Interactive 5 Day Cone above.
And this track is preliminary.
Many models take this all the way up the coast.
So stay tuned.
It's not over til it's over.
Currently it shows landfall.
Further up the Florida Coast.
You know like Dorian 2...
Dorian 3 is due in next week possibly.
Getting busy in the tropics.
Please read the previous blog.
I wrote it this afternoon at 3:30 PM.
I wanted to keep this new for the new PTC9
All my thoughts on messy models are in the previous post.
Be back later,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps.. Never turn your back on a cylone.
Remember when many wrote Dorian off early on.
Too small, nothing there....
...and then BAMN Cat 5 185 MPH WINDS.
So here's hoping you never see that.
If you want to know what it's like.
Posting the link here to @icyclone youtube he posted.
6 PM UPDATE. New Wave By Africa Officially a Yellow Circle on NHC Map. Tropics Monday... Models for 94L & Wave Coming Off Africa.. Clean UP After Dorian HUGE. BEGGING YOU TO HELP THE BAHAMAS. Why I'm Begging? Read the Whole Blog. Where's WE ARE THE WORLD When WE NEED THEM??
Two big Upper Level Lows.
Almost working in tandem.
Moving South....
...pushing down into the Tropics.
Post Dorian and Gabrielle departure..
That wake I talked on below in the morning blog.
Models......
Note the wide variance in solutions.
Wider than that NHC Cone that covered Florida.
I will tell you models paint bad scenarios.
But it's early and they are long range models.
And they flip around a bit from run to run.
I'm not going to show them
Basically one model moves it slower, one moves it faster. We are still not 100% which system the models are developing so talk on too many waves in the basin let's wait til we get a better feel for the new wave, see what the old wave can do and wait to see the next few model runs. The general tendency in the tropics is for a wave to develop near 50 to 60 West, that's been the Go Zone all Season and on approach to the Islands we either have a real named storm or one forming. The storm goes through the Islands or clips the top of them much as Dorian did the Virgin Islands but there's lot of wiggle room to either try and thread that Mona Passage Mother Nature is obsessed with or lift through the PR/VI area once again. I know I don't want to believe it either but patterns persist. The difference is the recent passage of a historic hurricane and while the ocean is receptive again the system has to get past the areas you can see on the loop way below. Choppy waters as the wave behind Dorian and Gabrielle leave the Atlantic in a state of flux until it resets to a clean black board.
Just to the North of the Greater Antilles and PR/VI there is an area where the storm could deepen and approach the Bahamas though in this case it could head more towards the Turks but there is no way of knowing for sure because it's too soon. In general one very bad scenario takes aim at Florida and then pulls North doing that I95 Crawl that Dorian didn't so while another model keeps it off the coast as an Intense storm coming precariously close to the East Coast and New England.
Again models come and go and change in real time as things actually develop. Shear can be somewhere today and gone in a few days. Dorian went from a single thunderstorm in a nice pocket to a developed Tropical Storm, Hurricane and then a small hurricane and just before Grand Bahama it turned intense fast as small hurricanes are prone to do and the NHC really missed the extend of RI that went on; in their defense who could at this time in history really predict that perfectly?
Red NO.
Green GO.
If a Hurricane gets N of PR...
... it's where Dorian came together.
Shear tendencies flow often.
So that can change.
Could history repeat?
So let's let the new wave ride a bit and settle into the water. Let's see what Invest 94L has got and if it gets far enough West to develop a bit. And we can worry tomorrow and the day after tomorrow on what the models say.... Just keep those hurricane supplies on hand, follow the NHC and your local NWS and rely on your favorite weather people who have given you the best advice in the past. We are at the Peak of the Season, Prime Time Hurricane Season and if it's gonna happen by Africa now is the time for it to happen. In general we worry more this year closer in for more rapid development, sad but true. Please give to Bahamas Rescue relief and do what you can please, they need it and they need it yesterday. Watch carefully the video at the very bottom of today's blog as she tells it better than any of us can ever. www.redcross.com and if you ever went on even one Bahama cruise know those really wonderful people who worked in the markets, the stores, the hotels, restaurants are the ones who died, lost loved ones even if they survived and they need you now.
You can see Gabrielle top right leaving.
Everything follows getting pulled into the wake.
The Atlantic needs to calm down a bit.
And by the time the new wave gets to the Islands.
The environment should be more welcoming.
Sad but true.
Do what you can now...
And closer in to Florida.
Keep watching that area off the coast.
Moving closer.
But helping make sense of it all is not always easy.
So as Alanis sings isn't it ironic..... the models tried hard to latch onto the next monster storm to move towards our world and threaten the Islands, Bahamas and possibly the whole East Coast again and they couldn't get it right. Well unless 94L pops up fast into more than what it is and blows up in our face the way Dorian did and makes a run at the East Coast. Well or slip slides into the Caribbean and aims at the Gulf of Mexico but it's more logical it was a dud run of the models that had the NHC introduce 94L with 70% red chances and then it turns out it was nothing more than a red herring for the real wave behind it that is forecast to do bad things to places we don't want to have even one drop of rain for a little while as they are not even near trying to clean up yet.. We can't even get a real death toll and may never get a finite number on the people who died as storm surge washed over a small island at sea level where many wonderful people lived in small poorly built homes that got washed away out to sea... only their cars floating back to the ground after the storm surge moved on... slowly.
I'm serious. Sucks for the Bahamas, no other way to say it and having grown up in South Florida many of my friends came from the Bahamas and they are some of the nicest, kindest people you will ever meet. But not much of a government and no one seems in charge of this massive recovery process and I mean recovering bodies, finding food, helping them out ...
I won't kid you this is a mean hurricane season and it's not going to get any easier as it is what is called a backloaded hurricane season ... one forecast to go long and deep into October or even November. So the thought that any tropical storm let along a hurricane could trace over the places slammed by Dorian before we even can get aid in there or help the survivors or bury the dead is horrific and boggles the mind. But it happens. And anything you can do to help people there is huge.
Bottom like here is this... we aren't sure really. Many believe 94L tries to form and it is possible as it does have some spin, some sense of rotation and it's been persistent yet it becomes overwhelmed with the larger, stronger wave behind and gets taken over, eaten, gobbled up and the big wave behind only gets stronger.
Trying to use humor here...
...to defuse panic.
There was a lot of panic the other day.
Models showed a hurricane...
moving up I95..
Wiping out the East Coast.
Thankfully we moved back from that ledge.
And again ...again.... we come back to here.
Maybe.
Models change often.
And have problems with multiple systems.
NHC said 70% on 94L
Now they are walking it back 10% at a time.
Waiting on a new circle by Africa soon.
That's one to watch.
But never count out close in development.
Homegrown somewhere.
There is ONE BOTTOM LINE TODAY.
Track of the year...
Classic Hurricane Season.
Dangerous.
And NC is rebuilding.
They really need help.
REDCROSS helping...
Bahamas....... no words.
Areas totally gone.
Only the slabs remain from where homes were...
And more than 43 people dead.
Trust me on that.
Bahamas can't even get a death toll.
Not cleaning up bodies.
Watched one refugee after another being interviewed in FLL, RDU, JFK all being brought over by relatives in the USA and they say the same thing... over and over... dead bodies everywhere, rotting in the sun... one lady said she tried to cover them but there isn't much cloth around to cover them with as everything is wiped away. All lost family members or best friends or co workers or neighbors... miraculously during the long eye got to a few of the strong government buildings, huddled together with one bathroom and no food and then the storm left and they saw the aftermath... horrific. And there is no concert or big celebrity so far that has come forward to make some big relief effort; not yet anyway just Churches and Chabad and Red Cross... and Salvation Army (God Bless them all) and they need your help. Nice to say you are going to send them old clothes but there is nowhere to store them to be honest, they need money honey. They need money. They need to get the injured and survivors out of the Bahamas now. Or set up food and clothing and help in the few huge buildings built to survive a Cat 5 and the good news is those places did survive. @icyclone got to one of those buildings during the eye and that's how he survived. That's how others did who lived near by but the people too far away got swept away out to sea. They need water even though they are surrounded by the ocean...they need water and food. Send money to large charities that can do this even in their sleep and know what they need most and have ways to get it to them. They need water, food and medical supplies, shelters... they need money honey.
Chiante Russell and her family were on the Great Abaco Island in The Bahamas in their home and a shelter when Hurricane Dorian decimated the Abaco Islands as a Category 5 Hurricane. Her family survived. Hear her harrowing story. #HurricaneDorian#Dorian@BN9pic.twitter.com/Zj0vFtvoyL
11 PM HURRICANE DORIAN UPDATE. MODELS. TRACK. After Islands Dorian Approaching Florida. Virgin Islands In Crosshairs NOW. EAST COAST IN PLAY LATER. LABOR DAY MAJOR HURRICANE DORIAN.
You understand looking at this ...
Everything from Savannah to top of Key Largo...
IN the 5 Day Cone.
That's a wide cone.
Similar to previous cone.
Many questions for down the road.
Short term the cone is very narrow.
Radar presentation tonight good.
Better than the satellite image.
Important discussion to note.
Always good to read it carefully.
Subject to uncertainty.
Similar to previous cone.
People ask me always "WHEN?"
NHC has this graphic.
I have to admit it's a bit large.
Most people are asking me "WHAT?"
Again let me show you the NRL map.
Closer to that map.
Covering a lot of bases.
So that's it for the day.
Just too soon to say.
But landfall looks clear.
Where?
Can't say yet.
Review again what I wrote below please.
Thanks for your patience and feedback.
Sweet Tropical Dreams
BobbiStorm.
Ps... last model run below.
Newest set of models shown below.
And comparison of today's models below that.
Note this was for today Wednesday.
I asked if he would do it tomorrow.
He said he would.
Again everything changes often.
But good to see...
Here's a look at the latest models for #HurricaneDorian. The GFS (American model) has the farthest north landfall, near Daytona Beach. ICON (German model) as far south as Miami. Trusty ECMWF & HWRF suggesting the Vero Beach proximity. Stay tuned! pic.twitter.com/RzCOaTo2bA
If they are watching out for theirs... you do the same.
Showing this image below that Josh put up of the eye of Dorian.
The eye of Dorian over the Virgin Islands.
Why?
It's a good image.
And because the Virgin Islands were not supposed to see the eye.
No eye was forecast to develop.
And TS Dorian was forecast to move far to the West of there.
36 hours earlier and then the forecast changed.
Dorian has been a tricky storm from the beginning.
So expect more tricks in the days ahead.
Here is an example of how the cone has changed so far.
The center of #Dorian has been consistently on the right side of the cone and we'll see if that plays out in future model runs and eventual landfall. Over the last 2 days, you can see that shift in the early period, but not as much at the end of the @NHC_Atlantic 4casts. pic.twitter.com/CODc1nisy9
The logic behind the cone from the NHC and the current forecast track for Dorian is shown below but remember it can change fast as the atmosphere is fluid and each movement it makes relies on some factor upstream or downstream and just as everyone expected it to hit Hispaniola and to have it possibly fall apart a bit it changed direction on a dime and sped off towards the Virgin Islands avoiding the tall mountains and intensifying over warm water while pummeling the Virgin Islands ... video below from a sailboat in the middle of Hurricane Dorian ...turn the volume up.
There is a cold front moving down across the East side of the country with dry, high pressure moving in behind it. Another one reinforces that behind it and in theory this produces a strong high pressure ridge that blocks Dorian from moving North. Why is that important? Because hurricanes want to go towards the poles, they are energy transfer machines basically. And a stronger hurricane feels a stronger urge to go North. A high pressure ridge can and will block it from doing so. It is worth mentioning here that a Major Hurricane can sometimes make it's own weather and continue heading into high pressure whereas a Category 1 or 2 would be blocked. If you play Chess you understand this... if not trust me. A Major Hurricane will fight to pull North to the left...and often a hurricane is forecast to go WNW and yet it pulls NW. Sometimes a ridge builds in as it did with Andrew and Andrew turned West. Every hurricane is different and unique I can't say it enough. And in this case the atmosphere to the East is Florida is wet, moist and juicy as the remnants of Erin are floating down the coast and and it makes a bad situation worse as low pressure likes to go towards low pressure and stays away from high pressure.
Between the recon and jets flying into Dorian and around Dorian sampling the wind and atmosphere and all the different NWS offices along the coast sampling the air by the coast the next few model runs should be more accurate and in real time we will see what Dorian does after it leaves the Caribbean behind and moves up along the Bahamas. The NHC is doing their job, you have to do your job and that is monitor the movement, intensity, size and forward speed of the storm and listen to your local authorities. We will know more tomorrow and even more the day after tomorrow and that's true.
So now there are many questions I know.
What do you do?
Breaking this down in parts.
1. If you live in South Florida you should be carefully monitoring any changes in track or development (intensity, size, forward motion) of Dorian and begin preparing for what you would do should the cone be nudged further to the South and look as if it may come to parts of South Florida. I'm not saying that will happen but it could happen though at this point it is less likely. You should already have batteries and water so stock up if you haven't done so on medication, diapers, pet food and anything you need in case power is out or it takes a long time to rebuild. Hopefully that doesn't happen but living in paradise comes with a price tag and that price tag may be extra snacks, food and supplies to get through power being out or being out of work for several days at best.
2. If you live in Central Florida and let's make that wide so let's say anything North of WPB up to Daytona including the Lake inland and Tampa on the West Coast. Also know that if a Major Hurricane would cross that Lake there would be waves and storm surge there and inland flooding can happen in some places so follow your local sources. Do not rely on the fact that almost no major hurricane has done that and they always curve away as each hurricane is it's own beast with it's own unique steering currents. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. The 1928 hurricane came in around WPB and headed straight for the Lake, it can happen.
3. If you live in North Florida being North of Daytona across the Panhandle watch it more carefully than say Miami as it's always worse to be NW of a Major Hurricane than on the SW side of it at it's approach as hurricanes always try to go poleward (North) and if there is ANY weakness in the ridge Dorian will find that weakness and bust through the same way it changed course from the Mona Passage and headed NW towards the weakness in the dry air and ridge and busted through while becoming a hurricane in the process. It may rarely happen but it could happen as Dora proved in the past.
Georgia and the Carolinas watch Dorian carefully as you know this dance and this drill better than most, what begins in Florida doesn't always stay in Florida and the end game is a crap shoot as just six hours ago both the EURO and the GFS showed impact in Charleston after Florida and now that's off the table. It can easily be back on the table to morrow.
Video from Shaun Kadison on her boat on St. Thomas, near Charlotte Amalie during the #Dorian northern eyewall pic.twitter.com/n3pdMDeB0P
Just want to remind people reading today how fast things change.
Virgin Islands were supposed to be far to the East yesterday morning.
Things in the tropics change fast.
They can be very fluid.
2 days ago they felt safer because Mona Passage.
But that changed fast.
So keep that in mind while seeing models.
And watching the NHC Cone.
Good wide loop showing Hurricane Dorian forming.
Moved fast to the N though officially NW
Long loop.
Let's you see how Hurricane Dorian came to be.
Pressure dropping....
Note small storm still.
BUT... once in Bahamas will grow in size.
Nowhere near the Mona Passage.
I only repeat this as when looking at models.
And watching shifts in the NHC Cone.
Know there can be a wide margin of error often.
So do what you can in case it hits you ....
...the way it hit the Virgin Islands.
After all the talk on Hispaniola.
Also showing oddly despite different solutions...
...over Florida or near Florida.
Euro and GFS AGREE on it impacting SC.
Go figure.
How it gets there is extremely different route.
About a day apart.
But the drama goes on and on.
Dorian Drama.
And models change often.
Where we are now.
Oh and that happened.
Finally.
As models can make you nuts.....
...good to listen to experts.
A very good video from my friend.
He's good.
Listen to him if you have the time.
It's 20 minutes.
Explains variables and what has happened.
How we got here....
...where we are going.
Note discussion above.
Once Dorian reaches favorable environment.
Expected to intensify to Cat 3 Major Hurricane.
Then below is the next part.
Labor Day Hurricane Forecast Headed to Florida Beaches.
Asking you not to lock in on any one place now tho.
Remember yesterday morning NHC had Dorian in Mona Passage.
Now 1 day later it's EAST of PR in Virgin Islands.
Keep that in mind.
Everyone should prepare according to your needs now.
Could it slip up the coast?
Yes.
For those who follow on Twitter you will know I've said it could turn sharper in the short term to the right (meaning more NW to NNW) and then later turn sharper back to the West to WNW. It's been a concern I mentioned. It either gets to where the ridge is in time to be blocked and pushed towards Florida and if so ...really ...where exactly? Too soon to be sure. Or it finds a weakness and crawls up the coast looking for a weakness and so far Dorian has been excellent in finding a weakness in a ridge as it did yesterday. So prepare, don't panic... calm down and think on "what if" and do what you need but some beach city is going to get slammed on Labor Day Weekend and that's a big, HUGE hit for beach towns that rely on Labor Day Weekend revenue $$$ to get them through the winter when the tourists go back home. It's a huge financial loss for a good part of the SE Coast as trust me people are changing their plans now... as soon as they hear "MAJOR HURRICANE" even if not sure where they are NOT going to Florida or Georgia and up in the Carolinas they are watching very carefully.
The western cloud shield of Tropical Storm #Dorian is now pushing across eastern Puerto Rico. Dorian looks healthy on satellite imagery. PR is forecast to experience 'Tropical Storm' force winds this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/iYcuOqh4v5
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
