6 PM UPDATE. New Wave By Africa Officially a Yellow Circle on NHC Map. Tropics Monday... Models for 94L & Wave Coming Off Africa.. Clean UP After Dorian HUGE. BEGGING YOU TO HELP THE BAHAMAS. Why I'm Begging? Read the Whole Blog. Where's WE ARE THE WORLD When WE NEED THEM??
He's got class and a heart.
Incredible picture of survivors.
Mother and daughter.
Do you?
Have you donated to help survivors of Dorian.
Bahamas took the hit Florida was spared.
Give thanks ...give money.
Here we are at 4 PM above.
The big wave everyone's waiting for...
...introduced by NHC near the African Coast.
Formation zones on top of each other.
Oh ....um.... hmnnn
Yeah.
Use the link you can see 94L has a small roll.
And watch the new wave rolling off..
In theory they develop on top of each other.
Or the new one absorbs the old one.
Do we get an Invest 94L and 95L
Or do they merge?
Does 94L die away trying to form...
And 95L comes on hot and heavy.
It's the Anti-Dorian wave.
BIG, huge, WET, wide.
More tropical drama this week.
You can find the link to this on www.tropicaltidbits.com
He has many satellites you can choose from.
www.spaghettimodels.com has so many models.
You can see below both systems.
Yet there is an ULL to the North.
Diving down...
..almost like it wants to separate them.
You know divide and conquer.
Something to think on.
See the loop below.
Two big Upper Level Lows.Almost working in tandem.
Moving South....
...pushing down into the Tropics.
Post Dorian and Gabrielle departure..
That wake I talked on below in the morning blog.
Models......
Note the wide variance in solutions.
Wider than that NHC Cone that covered Florida.
I will tell you models paint bad scenarios.
But it's early and they are long range models.
And they flip around a bit from run to run.
I'm not going to show them
Basically one model moves it slower, one moves it faster. We are still not 100% which system the models are developing so talk on too many waves in the basin let's wait til we get a better feel for the new wave, see what the old wave can do and wait to see the next few model runs. The general tendency in the tropics is for a wave to develop near 50 to 60 West, that's been the Go Zone all Season and on approach to the Islands we either have a real named storm or one forming. The storm goes through the Islands or clips the top of them much as Dorian did the Virgin Islands but there's lot of wiggle room to either try and thread that Mona Passage Mother Nature is obsessed with or lift through the PR/VI area once again. I know I don't want to believe it either but patterns persist. The difference is the recent passage of a historic hurricane and while the ocean is receptive again the system has to get past the areas you can see on the loop way below. Choppy waters as the wave behind Dorian and Gabrielle leave the Atlantic in a state of flux until it resets to a clean black board.
Just to the North of the Greater Antilles and PR/VI there is an area where the storm could deepen and approach the Bahamas though in this case it could head more towards the Turks but there is no way of knowing for sure because it's too soon. In general one very bad scenario takes aim at Florida and then pulls North doing that I95 Crawl that Dorian didn't so while another model keeps it off the coast as an Intense storm coming precariously close to the East Coast and New England.
Again models come and go and change in real time as things actually develop. Shear can be somewhere today and gone in a few days. Dorian went from a single thunderstorm in a nice pocket to a developed Tropical Storm, Hurricane and then a small hurricane and just before Grand Bahama it turned intense fast as small hurricanes are prone to do and the NHC really missed the extend of RI that went on; in their defense who could at this time in history really predict that perfectly?
Red NO.
Green GO.
If a Hurricane gets N of PR...
... it's where Dorian came together.
Shear tendencies flow often.
So that can change.
Could history repeat?
So let's let the new wave ride a bit and settle into the water. Let's see what Invest 94L has got and if it gets far enough West to develop a bit. And we can worry tomorrow and the day after tomorrow on what the models say.... Just keep those hurricane supplies on hand, follow the NHC and your local NWS and rely on your favorite weather people who have given you the best advice in the past. We are at the Peak of the Season, Prime Time Hurricane Season and if it's gonna happen by Africa now is the time for it to happen. In general we worry more this year closer in for more rapid development, sad but true. Please give to Bahamas Rescue relief and do what you can please, they need it and they need it yesterday. Watch carefully the video at the very bottom of today's blog as she tells it better than any of us can ever. www.redcross.com and if you ever went on even one Bahama cruise know those really wonderful people who worked in the markets, the stores, the hotels, restaurants are the ones who died, lost loved ones even if they survived and they need you now.
Everything follows getting pulled into the wake.
The Atlantic needs to calm down a bit.
And by the time the new wave gets to the Islands.
The environment should be more welcoming.
Sad but true.
Do what you can now...
And closer in to Florida.
Keep watching that area off the coast.
Moving closer.
NWS watching it... pay attention to them.
Loop below with everything in motion.
Mike has this loop up on his main page.
And every model link you want to use.
I'm placing this loop here first.
Because it tells the story for today.
The wake left behind behind...
Dorian and Gabrielle.
Needs to fade away.
There's lots to watch still...
....but not much to track or talk about.
Blackboard needs to be erased.
Before anything can get traction.
That's the most simplistic way I can say it.
Obviously areas such as GOM
Might be more inviviting.
But only for something small.
Too much chop left behind...
Like trying to row a canoe...
.... near a speedboat going in circles.
So what is possible down the road?
Here's the satellite image of the basin.
Has our current players.
Gabrielle ... sorry girl.
Totally ignored ya.
One of my favorite names.
Lower than expected.
Killed off and came back.
Forecast to take the obvious track.
Invest 94L .. NHC had such high hopes.
Will discuss this in length later.
Still there, still has some potential.
SLOW potential.
Let's move on to close in area off FL coast.
Bahama Surprise...
Headed towards Florida.
Replay of the same track seen all year.
And probably a big rainmaker.
Kind of a surprise.
"where did that come from"
Good thing it's not at King Tide.
Been there done that.
Expect Miami flooding images.
It's rain...
And the big player isn't on that map yet.
I drew it in there in purple.
The next player should be up soon enough.
Was debating using my editing skill.s
Not be confused with a purple sharpie...
But hey this is the wave everyone's waiting on.
Great link from awesome Levi Cowan site.
You can watch this play out in real time.
If you keep that link.
Many high hopes this this 2nd wave in the set.
That's a quote from @Dabuh
Waves come off in sets.
They track across the ocean in sets.
Even when they don't develop.
And get no advisories...
They still run in sets.
Like waves crashing to the shore.
One after another.
— Steve Gencarelle (@steveginx) September 9, 2019
So we wait for the real wave to show up.
Yes we are like surfers.
Some by board.... some online surfers.
(you should see the beach parties we have...)
So this is the much touted Invest 95L
(unless something flares up close in..)
But this is the next big Invest.
The big wave.
Euro and GFS both have it.
Approaching the Bahamas.
:(
Then Florida.........
.........then the East Coast.
We be in modeling mode currently.
Watching models, patterns and loops.
And I have to admit I love learning and watching.
Sharing and trying to help.
But helping make sense of it all is not always easy.
So as Alanis sings isn't it ironic..... the models tried hard to latch onto the next monster storm to move towards our world and threaten the Islands, Bahamas and possibly the whole East Coast again and they couldn't get it right. Well unless 94L pops up fast into more than what it is and blows up in our face the way Dorian did and makes a run at the East Coast. Well or slip slides into the Caribbean and aims at the Gulf of Mexico but it's more logical it was a dud run of the models that had the NHC introduce 94L with 70% red chances and then it turns out it was nothing more than a red herring for the real wave behind it that is forecast to do bad things to places we don't want to have even one drop of rain for a little while as they are not even near trying to clean up yet.. We can't even get a real death toll and may never get a finite number on the people who died as storm surge washed over a small island at sea level where many wonderful people lived in small poorly built homes that got washed away out to sea... only their cars floating back to the ground after the storm surge moved on... slowly.
I'm serious. Sucks for the Bahamas, no other way to say it and having grown up in South Florida many of my friends came from the Bahamas and they are some of the nicest, kindest people you will ever meet. But not much of a government and no one seems in charge of this massive recovery process and I mean recovering bodies, finding food, helping them out ...
I won't kid you this is a mean hurricane season and it's not going to get any easier as it is what is called a backloaded hurricane season ... one forecast to go long and deep into October or even November. So the thought that any tropical storm let along a hurricane could trace over the places slammed by Dorian before we even can get aid in there or help the survivors or bury the dead is horrific and boggles the mind. But it happens. And anything you can do to help people there is huge.
People have issues with them...
...but no one like them in ways.
They are able to get in there and help.
I give to them... it's a good place to begin.
If you know a charity you trust...
... give to them.
I know the people in Chabad there...
..well close with their family members.
Know they are on the ground there..
They are helping the authorities try to find bodies.
And feed survivors .. of all religions.
Could 94L track that way?
Models showed it.
Yet models have been off haven't they?
Isn't it ironic.
But hey check out the NHC Cone.
Main 5 Day Cone.
Wiggled it's way across the tropics.
So long range models are rarely perfect.
But they show you where the High pressure is..
...and where the low pressure is.
The entire 14 day life span of #Dorian, a storm for the record books. Awesome job by @NHC_Atlantic, the brave Hurricane Hunters @53rdWRS, and the @NWS offices! @StormHour pic.twitter.com/mTcnIV6SvG— Collin Gross (@CollinGrossWx) September 9, 2019
Won't pretend the GFS didn't slam Florida with a Cane.
A big cane.
Take it with lots of sea salt.
Many mets I'm friends with are incredible.
Know Rob for what seems like forever.
He has so much heart ....
...he is so real.
And a really great meteorologist.
Now the models.
You can run them easily on www.windy.com
NAM shows Wednesday.
Rain moving towards Florida.
Euro takes that area across up towards FL.
Across FL...hanging out in Big Bend area.
As nothing much but rain ...
GFS shows it moving deep into the GOM
Showing up near Nola as rain.
Then we have EURO below 94L
(is it really 94L?)
Up over the Islands.
Better for the Bahamas.
But the GFS.......
....always so dramatic.
BAMN.
Not the model... BAMN like as in
BAD BAMN BAMN.
Just too soon to know.
Just too soon to worry.
But I know everyone's gonna obsess.
Bottom like here is this... we aren't sure really. Many believe 94L tries to form and it is possible as it does have some spin, some sense of rotation and it's been persistent yet it becomes overwhelmed with the larger, stronger wave behind and gets taken over, eaten, gobbled up and the big wave behind only gets stronger.
Trying to use humor here...
...to defuse panic.
There was a lot of panic the other day.
Models showed a hurricane...
moving up I95..
Wiping out the East Coast.
Thankfully we moved back from that ledge.
And again ...again.... we come back to here.
Maybe.
Models change often.
And have problems with multiple systems.
NHC said 70% on 94L
Now they are walking it back 10% at a time.
Waiting on a new circle by Africa soon.
That's one to watch.
But never count out close in development.
Homegrown somewhere.
There is ONE BOTTOM LINE TODAY.
Track of the year...
Classic Hurricane Season.
Dangerous.
And NC is rebuilding.
They really need help.
REDCROSS helping...
Bahamas....... no words.
Areas totally gone.
Only the slabs remain from where homes were...
And more than 43 people dead.
Trust me on that.
Bahamas can't even get a death toll.
Not cleaning up bodies.
Watched one refugee after another being interviewed in FLL, RDU, JFK all being brought over by relatives in the USA and they say the same thing... over and over... dead bodies everywhere, rotting in the sun... one lady said she tried to cover them but there isn't much cloth around to cover them with as everything is wiped away. All lost family members or best friends or co workers or neighbors... miraculously during the long eye got to a few of the strong government buildings, huddled together with one bathroom and no food and then the storm left and they saw the aftermath... horrific. And there is no concert or big celebrity so far that has come forward to make some big relief effort; not yet anyway just Churches and Chabad and Red Cross... and Salvation Army (God Bless them all) and they need your help. Nice to say you are going to send them old clothes but there is nowhere to store them to be honest, they need money honey. They need money. They need to get the injured and survivors out of the Bahamas now. Or set up food and clothing and help in the few huge buildings built to survive a Cat 5 and the good news is those places did survive. @icyclone got to one of those buildings during the eye and that's how he survived. That's how others did who lived near by but the people too far away got swept away out to sea. They need water even though they are surrounded by the ocean...they need water and food. Send money to large charities that can do this even in their sleep and know what they need most and have ways to get it to them. They need water, food and medical supplies, shelters... they need money honey.
Give now please.
Ask your friends to give now.
It is true the song.
We are the world.
We should be one.
It's going to be a busy season.
Going deep into October and November.
Pretty picture I took of Noel in FL.
Years back from the beach.
Halloween 2007.
Sandy in NY on Halloween.
Mitch, Matthew, Michael.
You get the idea here.
Give charity now while you can please.
And don't eat those hurricane supplies.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Updating on Twitter in real time.
Ps... we need to help the Bahamnas.
They helped Haiti Thank God...
Why not the Bahamas?
NOTE EVERY SURVIVOR TELLS THE SAME STORY.
This is not some urban legend.
It's not coordinated.
Every survivor tells the same story.
It's real, it's raw.
Horrific stories of loss by survivors.
Who lost their families.
Just picking random links ...
Best really is this one...
...she tells it better than anyone I've seen.
Chiante Russell and her family were on the Great Abaco Island in The Bahamas in their home and a shelter when Hurricane Dorian decimated the Abaco Islands as a Category 5 Hurricane. Her family survived. Hear her harrowing story. #HurricaneDorian #Dorian @BN9 pic.twitter.com/Zj0vFtvoyL— Stephanie Claytor (@ClaytorReports) September 7, 2019
I believe in people.
I believe in goodness and kindness.
I believe in charity.
I believe we can do this if we try.
Let's try please.
Time is of the essence.
Thank you!
Labels: 94L, 95L, bahamas, charity, dorian, models, music, news, redcross, tropics, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:15 AM
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