Late Nite Update.. Dorian And Tornadoes Is the Story so Far in NC/SC. A Night of Tornadoes for Carolinas. Stay Informed. Now is NOT the Time for Politics but for Staying SAFE .. Give Charity Please to Bahamas & Carolinas. Thank!

Disclaimer here.
I'm very tired.
I slept less than 3 hours last night.
Not editing this for any typos.
Sorry... and thanks for reading.
Thanks for your discussion on Twitter.



Looks like a Hurricane going Superstorm.



Regular Old Fashioned Cone.



Funny from far away looks like landfall.
but devil in the details.
There's a lot of Devil in Dorian.

Dorian gets a chance at the Outer Banks.

Can Dorian commit to a landfall?

Check back tomorrow on that one... 

Every Cape it meets it blows a kiss and moves on.
We will be studying this hurricane for years and years.

Lying in bed tonight watching Jim on Kure Beach.
I mentioned Kure Beach often in the blog.
I felt if Dorian didn't make the turn Beaufort SC.
If it didn't make the turn next chance was Kure Beach.
Next chance is at OBX.
Waiting to see if I get gusts near 40 MPH...
(Low confidence)



I keep peeking at the Green Bay Packers game :)

I sat outside in the rain for a bit.
Walked around, steady rain, light breeze.
Felt rain drops from far away Dorian.
It was nice... not the problem we worried on.
Everyone worried on.

Did you know if you put in Kure Beach to Google.
It tells you the wind speed.
NE Wind 60 MPH.

Wilmington area is funny.
We say "Wilmington" when we got to Wrightsville Beach.
It covers many areas and one of them is Kure Beach.
You want to see hurricanes in NC...
...live in Wilmington or OBX.

They have awesome kite festivals at Kure.
https://www.wilmingtonandbeaches.com/event/cape-fear-kite-festival/4693/
It's a good place to catch the wind.



Kure Beach is at the Southern most point near Cape Fear.
Wrightsville Beach East of Wilmington is further North.

Dorian doesn't seem to want to do land again.
That would be good.
Though it's forecast to impact Canada.
Just touches... like a kiss.
Moves on up the coast.
OBX is a magnet for Canes.

First trip to the Outer Banks.
Bought the sticker :)
How could I not?

Time will tell.

So this is the map.

Kure is further South...

Dorian moving NE at 13 MPH>

Wrightsville Beach is Wilmington's Beach.

It's complicated.

A close up of the area.

I show it because if you ever come here.

You really have to take the Ferry near there.

The Ferry goes from Fort Fisher to Southport.

I've done it many times.

The wind is wild like a storm... 

...seagulls fly.

The scent of the air in the Sound is fresh...

..exhilarating.

Divine.

Fun.

https://www.ncdot.gov/travel-maps/ferry-tickets-services/Pages/default.aspx

Check the video out below.

I like to show places where hurricanes go...

...in case you might want to go there too some day.

Further down in the blog...
earlier today I wrote on this.
Because everyone I know has sent me some joking meme.
And while reading up on death toll from Dorian...
..in Grand Bahama I'm not in the mood for Dorian jokes.

I'm not going to beat a dead horse here.
I just want to say i studied Journalism for my degree in Literature.
First rule is to verify all facts.
Second is to follow the money trail.
Third is know what people want to read.
But always verify.

So this whole Alabama thing bugged me.
Because I remember thinking some NHC Graphic was off.
I didn't believe in the move into the Gulf of Mexico.
Dorian was from day one a Coastal Cruiser.
I showed the graphics as they were official.
But discounted the models that took it into the GOM.

So I went through my blog and there it was...

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2019/08/hurricane-dorian-forecast-to-make.html



So I double checked the 5 PM Wind Probs for that day.
Destin.
Columbus GA.
Montgomery Alabama.
Mobile Alabama.



The cone with wind arrivals ...or...
..as Cranky calls it the Spud.
It a great idea, really...
...but rarely translates well.

People ask me all the time:
"when will the storm get to me"
I tell them there's a graphic on the NHC site.
They tell me "I can't read that, why can't you tell me"
I check it and tell them.
Perhaps it needs refining.
Or a disclaimer in big print.

Wind picking up a bit outside.

I like politics, my degree is in International Relations.
Two degrees at the same time with honors.
Work on a Masters Degree.

Check your sources and verify.

Some people don't care about facts or the truth.
Do the ends justify the means?
We argued that endlessly in Honors English in 10th grade.
Maybe they do and maybe they don't.

But right now the biggest priority is Dorian.
Dorian's drama in the Bahamas.
Help the survivors there....
www.redcross.org.
Or a charity you trust.

You want to make jokes.
Or you want to make the world a better place.

Start with giving charity please.
There are people who desperately need it.

Those were lives...
homes... businesses.
Just all gone.



www.redcross.org

If every comedian who made jokes give charity.
That would be wonderful.

Ending with a beautiful story.



BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps.. if you don't know why I showed the wind prob cone.
Keep reading.
I went on a long rant.
Because I'm too wiped from Dorian Drama.
And the knowledge of what terror went on in the Bahamas.
To make jokes to promote an agenda.

My agenda is simple.
Give charity, let's move on.

www.redcross.org

And there are more where Dorian came from.
Busy season.
Invest by Africa.
Will talk on it tomorrow.

Kind of centered like Dorian was back then.....

Wind history and watches and warnings.

This does not include ongoing Tornado Warnings.

This is setting up to be a Night of Twisters in the Carolinas.

We really are one region.. North, South, the Carolinas.

And Dorian came to visit..

...hopefully it leaves as fast.

I said days ago you don't get a remake of Florence.

Yes there will be flooding but the big problem from Dorian..

...wind, tornadoes and yes some flooding.

Florence is a unique set up ...

It's creating a Tornado outbreak like out on the Plains.

Warm moist air rushing up towards cold dry air.

Much lightning in Dorian.

Dorian never makes it easy.

Winds are here now and the forecast goes to Canada.

After being down terrorizing the Carolinas...

...it moves fast with the front up to Canada.

Note how fast it moves on Saturday and Sunday.

Like a speeding train.

Remember this cone for later please.

The eye remains offshore.

Down near Cape Romaine.

Georgetown SC area..

Radar below.

Eye offshore.

Weather onland.

Way better than the eye inland...

This area is the area I spoke of earlier.

It's on my map below.

The area I was most concerned would be impacted.

Yes the eye is offshore but it's weather is here.

Note watches and warnings galore.

Tornado, Flooding.

And the story is ongoing.

Developing, evolving in real time.

High winds and heavy rain from Hurricane Dorian arrive in Emerald Isle, where damage from a tornado that touched down Thursday morning is evident at the Boardwalk RV Park off Islander Drive. (Dylan Ray video) pic.twitter.com/NF7LYS8n4h

— Carteret News-Times (@newstimesonline) September 5, 2019

This video above is a nice area down by the coast.
Down meaning really East and a bit down.
But what started there has moved inland.

Okay so I looked at radar again... maybe I’m going to sit here a little while pic.twitter.com/nq8jGnB6fd

— Pee Dee Weather (@PeeDee_WxSC) September 5, 2019

So that happened.

But hey the eye stayed off shore.

Sadly not the weather that's everywhere.

A link for lightning.

https://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/america

/index.php?lang=en&bo_page=map

Lightning is in the bands.

Spiraling on shore and moving in...

...the tornadoes are in those bands.

Hard to see from a satellite image.

Earthnull below shows...

... how far inland the winds are now.

Intensity of Dorian's eye.

And how well wrapped the winds are inland.

Over NC and SC and up towards VA.

Satellite image below.

See how it all lines up?

See the intense oranges on the SC/NC border?

Beautiful signature.

Even if Dorian is mean.

Gotta admire the symmetry. 

And yes it's beginning to flood in some places.

Dorian is moving, not like Flo...

...so the flooding should be not as bad.

We can hope....

And tho...

I'm very happy a Cat 3 Hurricane didn't make landfall...

... slamming into Savannah or Charleston.

Or speeding through the Carolinas.

But still we have problems.

We need to stick together.

Help each other.

Be positive and proactive.

Help your neighbor.

Don't go far from your home.

Unless you evacuated.

Met several people today in town from Southpoint.

A very nice couple sat in a hotel lobby next to their luggage.

They weren't worried on flooding or winds...

..as much as all the oak and pine trees around their house breaking.

They came into Raleigh but were watching TWC in the lobby.

We've been lucky in the USA.

Not so lucky in the Bahamas.

Hopefully we will get lucky tonight..

..and the tornadoes won't be such an issue.

But sit tight until for now...

...and wait out Hurricane Dorian.

So far Dorian following the forecast.
But so so so close to the Carolina coastline.
And it's weather has spread way inland.
Wilson just outside Raleigh.
Tornado on the ground.

And down by the coast this happened this morning.
I have friends who own homes within blocks of there.
This is very personal for me.
Understand that.
This is my state, my beaches and Dorian in here.
I have a tornado watch.
My friends are huddled in their bathroom...
...praying the fast moving cell avoids their home.

While Dorian has managed my miles to stay offshore.
Well not Dorian but the eye.
Dorian's wrath has landed in the Carolinas.

Poor people survived Florence...

...and their home was destroyed a year later by Dorian.

#tornado on the ground near #Wilson #NC #Dorian pic.twitter.com/TYBbNWZCT0

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) September 5, 2019

Understand as I write this I'm watching this on TV.
Wes... one of my favorite weather people in Raleigh.
Covering breaking news on a tornado.
A tornado near where a friend of mine lives.

Damage is being assessed after a tornado touched down in Emerald Isle. During hurricanes, tornadoes can form quickly with little warning. The threat of tornadoes will persist across portions of central & eastern NC through Fri. as Dorian’s bands expand north.

🎥 by Carteret Co. pic.twitter.com/9QYFiUBNHA

— NC Emergency Managem (@NCEmergency) September 5, 2019

Watching coverage of Hurricane Dorian.
Ongoing all day long in Raleigh.
Local coverage vs TWC.
People have lost homes to tornadoes.
The threat of tornadoes continues into the night.
It's raining here in Raleigh and has been for hours.
But it's a light steady rain without a lot of wind.
Supposedly our winds will pick up tonight.
As Dorian moves up towards NC from SC..

I said earlier the wind and tornadoes was the story.
Flooding may happen but not as it did with Flo.
This is a dry storm relatively.
Warm, moist meeting a cold front with dry air.
Lots of lighting and tornadoes forming.
And it travels along tracing the coast.
And every place along the way is under the threat..
of tornadoes destroying their homes of killing someone

It's currently very close to the coast.
Inches, degrees, mere miles.
The eye wall has come over the Georgetown area.
There was a house on fire in Charleston.
Wild, whipped up waves showing nature's fury.

Yet I keep getting links from friends and relatives.
Hey did you see this one?
No it's not about giving charity.
Not it's not about a tornado near my house.
It's about politics entering the hurricane story.
Now is not the time ...
...it's insensitive to make jokes.
Maybe in a week or two...
...or a month I'll laugh.

So warning you know I'm going to beg you.
NOT to be part of the problem.
Whether you want to believe it or not.
The NHC issues a CONE..
...of arrival times of winds showing ALABAMA.
Just let it go... at least for now.
Look at the waterspout at the pier.
It's all live going on this minute.
6 hours ago ....
3 hours ago........
This minute there is a tornado on the ground in Wilson.
Let's talk weather and leave the politics out of it.
At least until Dorian has gone, gone, gone.
The way the waterspout is gone.
Please.

From Waterspouts to Tornadoes.

Weather is getting worse.

In Raleigh it's darker now than earlier.

Raining heavy.

A tornado on the ground in a nearby town.

Confirmed on the ground.

This is just the beginning of a long night for NC

 I was out in the weather earlier.
A squall line came in early on, it was dark.
Darker than my smart phone corrects for..
(so annoying)
... it became very windy, wildly windy.
Wonderfully windy and then the line moved on.
And Raleigh became cloaked in gray clouds.
And steady rain falling from Dorian.
I walked in it... I smiled.
I'm safe from devastating weather.
I'm praying for friends in Charleston.
I love Myrtle Beach and hope it's spared damage.
The painful images from the Bahamas are...
...well extremely painful to watch.

We have been lucky in the USA.
So far Dorian remains just offshore.
Almost magically... so far so good.
But still there are impacts ...
Tornadoes are nasty.
Even small ones take your house from you.
Huge trees can fall and kill people.

And you know what's in my feed all day?
Stupid political CRAP.
My father used that word a lot.
My mother was a genteel Southern Belle.
My father was from the Bronx.
It was a mixed marriage...
Both Jewish but very different backgrounds.
He said "crap" a lot and then..
...you knew that's when things were gonna get ugly.

So I'm saying CRAP!.

Save the crap for another day.
Trump said Alabama...
What an idiot.. a clown...so stupid.
Let me explain this to you here.
And I did not vote for him....
I voted for Hilary.
Really.
But......
... He's not a stupid buffoon.
He's the President.
You are not the President.
He beat a woman with more experience....
...but he was smarter in where he campaigned.

You don't have to like him.
You can dislike him.
You can say you can't stand him.

You want Pete or Tusli or Warren or Biden.
You better campaign your ass off for them.
Whoever the candidate is from the Democratic Party.
And Trump will do the same.
People hate him.
People love him.
We are a divided nation.
EURO VS GFS
Popeyes VS Chick-fil-A
McDonalds or Burger King.
Seriously do we have to argue over everything?

And while total destruction happened in the Bahamas.
Homes and lives wiped off the planet.
Cars dropping back to the ground...
...after the storm surge went away.

Homes simply came apart...

...the wood floated away.

People died.

The death toll is not official.

People are missing.. 

Babies, parents, grandparents.

And what is in my feed?

Stupid Memes about Trump and Alabama.

I didn't even pay attention at first.

I'm not interested in the stupid election this week.

And I studied POLITICAL SCIENCE.

Got a degree in INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS......

...with honors!

Studied tons of meteorology as it relates to IRN.

I love politics and usually the election.

Put this is not polite or kind to those suffering.

It's piling on and looking stupid.

You think it's funny?

It's not and you know why?

The problem ...in this case....is not Trump.

The problem is how the models are perceived.

And I am not a model hugger.

I watch, I look from a distance.

Never stop peeking but I don't live and die by them.

Know why?

Because they change every 6 to 12 hours.

And as Jim Williams said too many old Tweets.

Things change fast... yet old models keep getting retweeted.

People see a model on Monday and don't look on Tuesday.

The models wildly disagreed early on.

They flip flopped like wind shield wipers.

I ignored them.

Every message board online went crazy.

"Oh MY GOD did u see the new models?"

"OH MY GOD DORIAN IS GOING INTO THE GULF!

"Maybe it will hit New Orleans!!!!"

No... it was not going to do that.

It night have nicked the Gulf and turned back.

It was NEVER GOING TO NEW ORLEANS.

Every hurricane is Katrina for some people.

It might have gone to Tallahassee or the Panhandle.

But one or two sets of model runs.

Implied (extrapolating them) it was headed into the GOM.

And the NHC posted a their stupid time of arrival image.

Showing ALABAMA in that cone.

Honest.

The NRL WIDE CONE..

...went NW towards Alabama.

Honestly when I kept hearing about Alabama vs Florida.

I thought Trump was supporting Alabama over the Gators.

I can see where Floridians would be annoyed.

I was too busy with Dorian to figure out what it was about.

Trump Alabama not Florida ...who fricking cares?

When I understood what it was about.

I remembered the models.

I remembered the hysteria.

I remembered the NHC cone.

So give it up.

Give it a rest.

Stop making everything about the election...

...and everything about how much you mock Trump.

Get a candidate... a damn good one.

Support them with money and help.

Talk on how good they are......

........why people should vote for them.

Because honestly many people in America love Trump.

It is what it is.

But you make yourself look pitiful and self centered.

Because rather than talking on how so many lives were lost.

How Grand Bahama is similar to Dominica.. destroyed.

How money needs to be sent to help.

How people in NC lost their homes...

No it's all about finding something to make a new meme.

I hate memes. Ask anyone.

Okay sometimes I laugh.

But not while Dorian is threatening lives.

There is a time and a place for everything.

I do not want to hear politics in my feed.

I am not talking politics.

I'm talking human beings being insensitive.

I have a good sense of humor.

It's not funny.

And even if I was head of the DNC

I'd say wait "was Alabama ever in play"

And I'd decide now is not the time to make jokes.

For every meme you retweeted or posted.

Perhaps you can give a dollar to the Bahamas.

Or the Red Cross. 

I don't want to have to block friends on Twitter.

Because while seeing homes destroyed...

...they think it's important to make fun of Trump and Alabama.

It's just not the time.

There is more than a year to go to make fun of him.

There is more than a year.....

.... to find a candidate that can beat him.

Now is not the time.

Please think twice what you speak on...

...or make jokes on while people are suffering in real time.

That is all I ask.

Thank you.

Again this cone led to the next cone.

Then the NHC grahics with winds...

...showing up in Alabama.

Almost to the border of Mississippi.

See.....

And you know why I know?

Because this blog is a diary.

And I can go back and check.

So here are the facts.

https://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2019/08/hurricane-dorian-forecast-to-make.html

Going back to what seems like a life time ago... before Dorian stalled with 185 MPH winds over Grand Bahama and before Dorian crawled towards Florida and slowly traced the coastline and approached the Carolinas as a Major Hurricane again... there was some discussion that Dorian could cross Florida into the Gulf of Mexico and then everyone goes "Oh MY GOD IT'S KATRINA!!!" and I discounted those models but the NHC doing it's job showed their "time of arrival cone" that Cranky often calls a spud as it looks like a large potato or some other body part at times.... (use your imagination) and "oh look it's over Alabama" and the blown up part of that cone is shown below.

The NHC CONE OF TIME OF ARRIVAL OF WINDS.

Showed Alabama could get winds late Sunday evening.

And that is why this is a stupid "cone" ....

...tho I will admit the idea is great.

In theory it works.

As it is used it stinks.

The NHC is trying really.

Alabama was in the cone.

And FEMA and other officials were informed.

And then the models flipped back.

Stop chasing models everyone.

Just stop!

Watch them and know they may change.

I have a tornado warning near my house.

It's not going to hit here.

It may not hit anyone or it may.

There's one in Wilson near by.

It's getting really dark.

And I don't want to see your memes right now.

As Cranky says often.

Stop letting the media manipulate you...

I'll add stop being part of the problem.

Be part of the solution.

Find a very good candidate that can beat him.

Campaign your ass off...

give money as I have to a few candidates.

Not a lot... but something.

Next time you retweet something... 

...you thin is funny remember this NHC cone.

Think on these people who lost their homes.

They survived Florence... now this.

Misery on misery.

Give money to a charity.

Give to the Red Cross.

www.redcross.com

Have some sensitivity.

That's all I'm asking.

Nuff said on me... 

...begging you not to make political jokes about Dorian.

Stay safe, may your loved ones be safe ...

...and not lose their homes or lives.

May Dorian go away... far away.

Yet know more hurricanes will threaten..

Be a part of the solution not the problem.

BobbiStorm.

But stop being insensitive ... 

... this is a national disaster.

Not some old model and NHC Cone.

An NHC Cone.

IF U LIVE IN NC OR SC

FOLLOW ALL TORNADO WARNINGS.

FIND A PLACE YOU CAN HUNKER DOWN.

BATHROOM WORKS.

They are moving fast... they won't last.

But they will be here all night.

As for jokes and memes...

.... you need to calm down.

Give charity.

Just don't.

And campaign your heart out this year.

Just not now.

Gotta go.......it's really dark here.

And pouring.

You need to just stop.

Can you not.

And let's make jokes next week ;)

Not now.

Give charity please.

And pray no one gets killed.

Make Dorian just not...

..and go away.

11 AM
Dorian following NHC Cone.

Cone below.

I'll update around 4 PM with updates.

For now Dorian doing it's thing.

What I said about Charleston below...

...goes for Pawley's Island.

Georgetown

The beach below I posted video of..

Myrtle Beach

Kure Beach.

Wilmington.

Eye wall with dangerous weather..

...too close for comfort.

Tornadoes everywhere...

They may be the bit land story here.

Winds as I said last night.

The W side is not filled with moisture.

But winds swirling in and strong squalls.

See loops below.

Stay safe and stay informed on the storm.

Atmospheric Ballet as I call it.
I dance...
The steering currents and Dorian.
Note how close the eye wall is to Charleston.

Look how wide that eye is.

Wider view of the Tropical Basin.

A close up of Dorian.

Remember this image later.

As I went long on discussion at the end.

Another image this morning.

Rain shield to the North moving North or NNE with Dorian.

Strong bands with tornadoes moving N of Dorian.

The EYE of Dorian seen clearly on radar.

As Dorian moves NNE...

...part of that eye wall can scrape the coast.

Areas I worry can deal directly with Dorian..

Both eye and eye wall

(even if it's not an official landfall)

Note Cape Fear juts out to the East...

above Ocean Isle Beach.

That's why Cape Fear gets hit so often.

But any wobble...

...or perhaps the huge eye breathes and gets wider.

Just by a few miles.

That eye wall grinds down your neighborhood.

It's very fluid and dangerous.

It's as if it's moving up US 17..

.... a long walk but a beautiful drive.

I do it all the time.

I did it 11 days ago.

We drove up US 17 from Savannah....

...to Myrtle Beach.

Before heading back up to Raleigh on the 40.

Weather and tornado danger can occur in this map.

A hurricane is more than the black line in the Cone.

So stay tuned and be careful.

Follow local advice and be cautious.

Hunker down and let Dorian pass you by.

Hope it just slides by as it did in Florida.

But because of the shape of the coastline.

And forward speed and direction of movement.

It makes missing NC very difficult.

Dorian needs to make a sharper turn NE to ENE

Dorian needs to pick up speed and leave.

To avoid an official landfall.

If you are in that box.

You will be impacted by Dorian.

One way of the other.

Out checking on some properties we manage and this happened. @EdPiotrowski @wpdeabc15 @WBTWNews13 @TheWeatherCH @wmbfnews pic.twitter.com/6wqtjeYiMC

— Wayne White (@NMBchiefsSports) September 5, 2019

This morning a chaser tracked a tornado.
Think he is actually a property manager...
...but he's a chaser now.

Hasn't been confirmed by you get the idea.

North Myrtle Beach....

Far to the North of Dorian.

Where dangerous bands are coming onshore now.

In advance of the eye down South of Charleston.

Again I live here it's one general region.

Hard to know where one city ends and one begins.

Beach towns along US 17

Cone track info and graphics.

Major hurricane at 8 AM ...

...forecast to weaken some soon.

Due to shear appearing.

Close up of where Dorian comes closest to the coast.

Again any variation or wobble.

Gives some city more than they expected.

If you are inside this cone. 

Expect you could get hurricane winds.

Eye moves along the coast.

But even the NHC points out...

...or over the coast.

Look how closely Dorian rides along the coast.

Look carefully.

Red circles are TS winds and Hurricane winds.

This changes on each advisory IF...

IF the NHC adjusts the cone.

Shaded grid area can have impacts.

It's a great guide for where the winds are expected.

We can watch it on radar in real time.

Dangerous weather far to the N of the eye...

...swirling on shore bringing with it dangerous weather.

Tornadoes... as seen in the video.

Impressive signature always.

Even as a small tropical wave it had that look.

Matured into a Classic Hurricane.

I like this image.

It shows the beast within.....

...and the dangers far from the eye.

HUGE LARGE EYE.

SWIRLING.

Heavy moisture over the ocean.

Less inland though the flooding threat there.

The threat for prolonged hurricane winds...

...along every coastal city to the West of the EYE.

That means many places could end up in the eye wall...

...yet not get the EYE.

In Hurricane Andrew some of the worst damage in S Dade.

Was in areas that sat in the donut ring of the eye wall.

So rather than a fast hit, the hit went on and on.

Until Andrew moved on.

Andrew was a dry hurricane and a fast mover.

Every hurricane is different.

Dorian is deadly both in Bahamas and NC already.

A tornado in North Myrtle Beach earlier...

... had them put up a Tornado Watch across NC.

Down East near the coast it's more serious.

But anywhere weather goes...

... you can get trouble.

Here's your eye wall as of 9 AM

Again the tornado was in that red band far from it.

A good reminder of dangers within the whole storm.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Good graphic Mike put up.

People ask nonstop in chat alongside his Facebook Live...

...where exactly the storm surge is in relation to their home.

This shows Storm surge potential.

Details are very important.

From Charleston up to Wilmington Highest.

Remember as Dorian moves....

...the water pushes in North of the eye.

It's not a single event.

Over time water keeps piling in.

Piles up and works in real time.

Everything about a hurricane happens in real time.

Modeling wise...

...it doesn't get better than that.

Models agree.

Dorian is center stage here.

Closely following models.

Tracing over the NHC Cone.

Moving up the coast.

Very alive and compelling.

Starting with discussion here.

This point is the most important point to remember.

Center is expected to be very near or over the coast.

In a set up such as this every degree matters.

Some random city could get more of the eye.

Or be in the eye wall a longer time.

That is wind wise the most dangerous.

Next...

Weakness in the ridge there......

...as I said there would a weakness.

Dorian is finding the weakness in the ridge.

Dorian has always been great at this...

And the NHC expects shear to begin soon.

Southwesterly shear.

Slow weakening forecast.

And that really is it, there isn't much to add. As I have said several times already I am worried on an area that is too close to the eye to rule out getting impacts from the eye. AGAIN... the NHC only calls "landfall" when the exact center of the eye crosses some beach somewhere. But often parts of the eye...the clear weather when winds come to a quiet stop...the calm on the other side of the dangerous eyewall winds stop... briefly sometimes and yet it was not considered a landfall as the NHC said during Matthew the center of the eye did not make landfall. Rules ya know...

But the weather, the dangers, the beauty of the eye and the violent return of the back side of the hurricane CAN hit some town, some beach somewhere and still not officially get "landfall" and the NHC track will verify as the center of the line stays offshore. It's all about the rules and they are a government agency and well you know how that goes so I am reminding you NOT to think because you are not in the black line in the middle of the cone that you will not get eye wall dangerous winds.

Take Charleston for example, there is a small possibility while Dorian attempts that NNE turn as it is doing now Charleston or Georgetown SC could get a part of the eye. And either way does it matter if you are being pounded by 110 MPH winds and gusts way stronger or 105 MPH winds with gusts way stronger and small cells that could have tornadoes rotating in those bands? The damage to your house and possible deadly dangers are still there, it's just a line in a graphic.

Hope it stays off shore.

It's as basic now as it gets.

Prepare for the worst.

Hope for the best.

I'm in Raleigh with a Tropical Storm Warning.

Raleigh is the "City of Oaks"

Thinking it should be the city of Pines..

Guessing some other NC city got that one.

Oaks and Pines snap fast...

...power goes out.

Hoping I don't lose power.

Preparing for the worst.

I have things to do today.

I'll be on and offline.

Again if you are in this area ....

....know you could get the eye.

Perhaps not officially "landfall" 

But you could get the EYE.

A piece of the eye.

And more so the dangerous EYE WALL

Where the worst winds are.

So let's not high five each other yet.

Florida escaped that but will the Carolinas?

Stay tuned...

Drama in the tropics.

Dorian Drama.

Eventually Dorian expands...

...merges into the front.

Goes Extratropical... 

But for now we are watching it do it's thing.

And we need to do ours.

This is just too close for comfort.

And never forget there are more storms out there.

None are threatening anywhere.

Today it's all about Dorian.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... Video from my trip to Huntington Beach SC.

Just South of Myrtle Beach a bit on US 17

I went to survey beach erosion.

It still has erosion from the last hurricane.

But got distracted by this awesome do..

...not a pony on the beach.

Beautiful beach being pounded as I type...

...by Major Hurricane Dorian to it's South.

10 days ago drove N from #Savannah to #MyrtleBeach stopping at #Huntington #beach to check out erosion from last hurricane now in crosshairs of #Dorian doing the same trip it seems. #dog not horse. Beautiful. https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxa info on #Dorian @HurricaneCity @dawley_sue pic.twitter.com/gN2cmMekbV

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) September 5, 2019