UPDATE 11 PM HURRICANE DORIAN. Florida Landfall - Labor Day Weekend. Weaker Now, Stronger Later. MAJOR Hurricane and Headed Towards Landfall. NHC Forecasts a CAT 4
Still a large circle on the 5th day.
Note the slow motion just offshore.
Possibly about to make a turn ...
..... around landfall.
Tonight's landfall is just S of Pt. St. Lucie.
North of West Palm Beach.
Now it feels the weakness.
Previous inland position below.
Close up of map above of 5 PM.
Close up map of 11 PM.
You can see they dropped it South a bit.
But the cone overall is the same.
This will change.
Compare and contrast later.
There's a rumor Cantore is in Vero Beach.
Or near there.
I guess we will see Friday just where he is....
Cone still wide on the 5th day.
They will tighten that up some tomorrow.
(I keep saying that right....)
Discussion.
Timing issues with the ridge.
Does Dorian move faster...
...or dawdle along.
End Game as of 11 PM
And we start over in the morning. You just have to do what you have to do and review what you are supposed to do. They could drag the cone a bit to the South tomorrow or keep it where it is as Dorian is seemingly moving slow enough. Remember forecast advisory is forecast speed. Expect watches and warnings to go up on Friday. And there Dorian is below, no I cannot make that up that is what Dorian looks like tonight. I did not draw the eyes on .... and it's signature tail.
That is not enhanced.
Life is stranger than fiction.
As if it's looking at Florida.
Note the crazy lightning storm over South Florida.
I keep saying way too much convection there.
Way too inviting to Dorian.
Miami FLL tonight.
Heavy rain.
Huge lightning storm.
As for the models.
Obvious why NHC holds the cone there.
Always outliers.
Some break South.
Some break North.
You know how this goes.
And even Dorian is wondering.
And recon is out there working while we sleep.
Dueling hurricane hunters tonight, one from AF Reserve on a recon mission and one from NOAA on a research mission. Finding much stronger winds, Dorian is strengthening quickly tonight. #SetzerSays @cbsmiami pic.twitter.com/o0WDQndQjt— Craig Setzer (@CraigSetzer) August 30, 2019
I'm going to bed.
Dorian tonight.
It's been oriented this way all night.
Reaching out to the NW.
Building an inner core.
Tomorrow should be big.
Compare to Dorian earlier.
Hmnnn
Going to sleep.
Read if you can't sleep.
The stand alone blog on C FL landfalls.
Hurricane History.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Dorian looking more formidable this afternoon.
I'll update soon with thoughts on the timing of the track.
Every time they push the timing back.....
It could down the road change the track.
Why?
Because timing if everything. If Dorian slows down enough but the time it arrives where it was supposed to be that the strong high pressure ridge is aloft forcing Dorian into Central Florida then a small weakness in the ridge could open up and allow Dorian to try and make an escape and go North. I am not saying that will happen I am saying it can happen if it dawdles vs speeding up. Moving slowly over very hot water can and will intensify a well developed storm into a Major Hurricane and that's bad. But ... my concern is on timing because if you get timing off you tend to get the track a bit off and the intensity wrong. So watch the timing part of the track and do what you got to do to make it through Dorian. As my son Mendy said to me, "you know me I have a lot of water (not his exact words...) and canned food and I'm watching it" and yes I know him he helped us get through Wilma, Katrina, Rita and the list goes on and on. I still worry because I love him and the rest of the my gang but they are a bit hurricane savy because like Mike who they tend to watch more than they read my blog ... they are old Miami kids who know tropical weather and have an awareness a hurricane can happen in any given year.
So learn to keep your priorities set and stay focused and do not panic or obsess all night you need you energy in case Dorian comes to your town. You need to calm down.
I'll update after the next model run sets.
Please read the previous blog.
Save it or bookmark it.
Save it or bookmark it.
It's a study of Central Florida Hurricanes.
And I say Central broadly.
IT's hard to find Major Hurricane landfalls there.
They usually go South towards Miami or the Keys..
...or find a weakness just in time and turn North.
But many in late August have made landfall.
Most were tropical storms or Cat 1 Hurricanes.
But you'd be surprised how many.
Jim Williams would disagree with me...
...he'd complain "that's not Central Florida"
And he's right in ways.
But understanding hurricane history is important.
And there are some forgotten bad hurricanes...
...that came in North of FLL or WPB.
And a few came in near Jacksonville.
That's really rare...........
So you can go to www.hurricanecity.com
He has a deep data base for cities in Hurricane Country.
Find your city.
An example being Melbourne.
Not much changed in the Cone.
Forecast Strength up to Cat 4.
As South as Lower Keys.
As far North as Just South of Savannah.
Note Bahamas going to take a BAD HIT.
Similar to NRL larger grid last night.
That's the reason I show the NAVY map often.
Models below.
Yes one breaks towards Miami.
One breaks towards North Carolina.
Follow the trend on models.
Follow the bulk of the models.
Another look at where Dorian is now.
Prefacing this next part with this information.
Wind Probs below.
Good info below to think on for anyone in Florida.
Use this link above to find your city and it's probabilities. Check wind probs at 5 PM. Watch the trend as the trend is everything. Run from the wind, hide from the water.... but trust me unless you have your own private plane there is no easy way out of Florida today. Flights are prohibitively expensive even for people with money and talking a flight out today not tomorrow. Maybe Delta or Southwest who knows will put out cheap flights as they did by Irma but most likely you need to deal with the reality that you are either going to get stuck in the world's largest parking lot running out of gas Northbound or you are going to hunker down in the safest place that you can find. People will leave call in sick tomorrow morning and hit the road hoping to beat the people who waited until work ended Friday at 5 PM and though they could drive through the night. It's going to be a mess. Being honest. So that leaves you with that hurricane preparation lecture I always give you in May and June. Whatcha gonna do?
If you are NOT in an evacuation zone or area that floods easy stay put. Find interior rooms be they bathroom with no window or even a small window or a walk in closet. Hope that you do NOT get the brunt of Dorian and if you do know where you will go to be safe. If you are going to go to a Shelter I'm telling you now you have to often SIGN UP so do it before someone else. At some point Watches and Warnings will be put up and those who prepared today will have a place to go be it a Days Inn or the Ritz or your local High School Shelter or staying with Aunt Susie that lives inland in a nice 1960s box house with good hurricane shutters!
If you need supplies try a local Dollar Store, spread your money around they are usually filled with food, snacks, paper goods, water 6 for $1 and that may change really fast so act accordingly now. Dorian could begin to lift North and hit Florida going NW or NNW and that could show up in the models later and then the cone would adjust. It could stall. I'll say this again it could slow down and crawl and stall a bit and then drive everyone crazy. Major hurricanes often do that in the Bahamas and make Floridians crazy. And ... I hate to admit it could go South of West for a bit and drag the cone with it but the NHC goes with the consensus and does a good job most of the time and they adjust as needed. If you are in Florida you are there... deal with it and IF and WHEN the cone narrows and shows it coming to your town do what I said earlier and find a place to ride out the storm far from the water and where you can hide from the wind. See the bottom of this blog and picture it in your mind.
Note this goes for Georgia and the Carolinas as no they are not totally out of the picture. Things change and small cyclones can change faster in the way that a small red sports car can take a turn way faster than a large 18 wheeler or a Winnebago.
I will go over my thoughts on track trying to give you my best thoughts on the three most likely scenarios based on current patterns, trends and historical information but for now you need to make a plan, nail it down and spend your money wisely because Naples may never see this storm, Miami might get lucky in a Magic Miami way and Ormond Beach could get nailed as it begins to pull NW from WNWs or West if Dorian sees any weakness in the ridge.
Everyone asks how to find this site.
Type NRL Tropical cyclone page into Google.
Mike talked on this today.
Use Amazon.
Buy this or something like it.
@tropicalupdate on Twitter.
Again if you got Amazon Prime.
USE IT NOW
Includes baby wipes... or diapers.
As I've been told you can't get into Publix.
But really for necessities.
The store is out of many items.
Use Amazon while you got it!
Essentials delivered fast.
Think meds and diapers or whatever you need.
But don't panic.
Stay calm like Taylor Swift Song.
You got to calm down.
You need to think clearly and NOT PANIC.
So that's it for now.
Song at the bottom.
There Dorian is below.
Keep reading lots of good information.
There's Dorian above.
Two up close images of Dorian.
Facts are below.
Compare and contrast from 5 AM.
Models..
Please use www.spaghettimodels.com
Best place to go for models.
And images galore.
Like an Amazon Weather Store!
I'll talk long on models this afternoon.
So check back please and I'll give my thoughts.
My hardcore thoughts.
On that I promise.
Today is a day to prepare if you live in Florida.
Where exactly the landfall is I can't say yet.
But we can talk on that later and tomorrow.
So today I'm laying it out for you with the data.
Note the cone is very wide on the 5th day.
Note also it slows down early Sunday morning.
IF this forecast cone verifies.
And things change fast so it might not.
But it's something to compare to at 11 AM.
Important parts of discussion from the NHC
Basically last night Dorian didn't look well.
And when I say that I mean suddenly.
On one level the image above looks good.
But understand the East side lost color.
All the convection was on the right side.
The little eye wall was ragged on the East Side.
Next image shows a pin point eye.
But a blob next to it bigger.
And with brighter convection.
On this loop white in red is intense.
So that was a sudden disconnect.
Current shot below.
Still a bit messy.
This would explain the higher pressure found.
You can see the eye.
It's got dry air on the SE side.
Still has strong convection on the East side.
Side by side.
Last night on the left.
This morning on the right.
Earthnull above shows this well.
It's SW side is inhibited by Hispaniola a bit.
And by the dry air visible on the images above.
NE side stronger in a classic way.
You can see the color flare up and fan down.
Good loop.
Let's look at another few images.
Before going back to discussion.
Going out to a wider view.
Same image as above.
Dorian is wrapped in a small gray bubble.
Here the gray is mildly wet atmosphere.
Heavy orange to it's SW constricting it there.
Never it's best side historically.
And in line with classic canes the SW is weak.
The high pressure from the cold front to the NW
Bright yellow pushing down into darker colors.
To it's NNW Erin is slipping away.
The moisture to it's East slipped away...
or dried up...
The ULL is finally trying to get to Cuba.
Something to come back to later tonight.
Remember that point please.
Now the visible from NRL.
Looks beautiful.
See how different the images are?
That is why we use so many different satellites.
The real bulk of Dorian is below.
The up above is a beautiful large satellite image.
Just clouds basically.
The actual core.
And thunderstorms are firing up.
Let's go back to discussion.
It talks on the ridging you can see to the NW
It talks about the ULL moving over the Straits.
It will eventually dip down towards Cuba.
The ULL...
Weather makes strange bedfellows.
FSU ensemble models forecast the Hurricane.
FSU trying to help UM?
Okay let's go back to the discussion.
They have great meteorology models.
That's why people like Levi Cowan attends FSU.
Note that the current cone shows it slowing down.
It speeds up and then slows down.
I want to caution you not to believe that's carved in stone.
Discussion mentions it.
Biggest change is speed down the road close to Florida.
Key messages.
Note the size of the cone on the 5th day.
They just don't know.
Too many variables.
And again Dorian is small.
Being small core it can flare up fast....
...it can fall apart fast.
It can change directions fast.
Fast being relative here....
Faster than a huge behemoth system.
Here's a link to use and keep.
It's a colorful water vapor loop.
Here's the image.
put it in motion for yourself if you want.
You have high dry air pushing Dorian from behind on it's SW
You have high dry air pushing down from the NW
It moves NW and that stand off sort of ballet begins.
It's a dance we see begin as soon as fronts dip down.
And at the same time hurricanes spin up.
It's part of the way Mother Nature works.
You see the dance on that loop above.
It's a great loop.
It's a forecast loop that is predictive.
It's current but you see the pattern and the trends.
You see when a wave is beginning to spin up.
You see where dry is stronger and moist air wetter.
Note Erin looks wild.
But Erin was just discontinued by the NHC.
Nice signature now ....how ironic.
But Erin Leaves.
The high builds in.
There's way too much moist air around Florida.
A better environment for Dorian if it can get there.
Has a small dry slot to get through.
Note the bottom long stream feeding Dorian from the SW
Think of those as Dorian's gas lines.
Energy links.
Feeding moisture into it despite a dry atmosphere.
That long feed of orange that goes from the EPAC...
...across Central American into the SW Carib.
And being sucked into Dorian.
That is how hurricanes eat...
They live on moisture.
It's why that "Orange Juice" loop is so awesome.
Back to discussion.
Here in is the issue.
Dorian weak looking now for an 85 MPH storm.
But it begins to jump in intensity.
As that upper level low moves South it bounces more N
And when it gets into the right place.
The ULL enhances it's intensity.
Boom 100...
Boom 115...
Boom 125!!!
Then inland.
Where inland?
Put the coordinates into Google ....
You can do this yourself on every advisory.
That's called Lake Country....
...if it hits there.
Your OJ Juice prices are going up soon...
No watches or warnings today.
No 2 PM or 8 PM updates
Dorian below.
Small but intense.
Erin large and not so intense.
Moving up into the North Atlantic.
So here we are with the Bottom Line.
I will go long on discussion later today.
My own thoughts.
Some thoughts of others.
I'll post some links to video discussion.
But bottom line is this.
The wind probabilities now are from...
South Carolina to Cuba.
Remember that.
Click on that link above to find your city above.
Graphics from NHC below.
Graphic below basically is the wind field chances.
Similar to the probabilities.
Below is your timing.
This changes with the large forecast packages.
It's a rough guide.
Now is not the time to buy water and twinkies.
Buy GAS. Get CASH.
Medication.
Reservations out of town if you want to leave.
Make a plan that can go into action soon.
Jim Williams tried to pin me down last night.
He likes to do that.
We are good friends.
He's awesome.
Dorian is tricky so don't want to say today my thoughts.
Yes...it could go in North of WPB over the lake.
I have thought that often.
Why I'll explain later today.
But it's also possible the high pressure has a weakness.
And if so Dorian will find it and try to pull right.
Prepare now as if it's coming straight to your house.
I'll update later today.
Stay safe... be calm.
Pay attention.
Bobbistorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps...if you follow me there you get real time information.
I have to go.
I'll give you a song later.
I have to call my son.
He has a boat.
And a wife who went through Andrew as a little girl.
She hears Major Hurricane and Miami and ...
...she wants to get out town fast.
Nothing like being five years old in a tub...
...with the mattress over you
And your father holding the bathroom door tight!
To make you appreciate the wrath of a hurricane.
If you live in Georgia or Carolinas.
I know you are watching too.
My son says Billie Holiday is better but...
...can't find a good video.
What a difference a day makes.
That goes for models and cones.
Virgin Islands thought Hispaniola was getting Dorian.
Then things changed.
Could Dorian stall a bit?
Timing is everything.
One constant is models change some.
Labels: bobbistorm, Carolinas, Cat4, cone, dorian, Florida, Georgia, hurricane, major, maps, models, music, NHC
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:32 AM
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