Dorian. So MANY Questions. Stubbornly Fighting Off Dry Air & Shear... Short Term Cruising Thru Caribbean Towards Mona Passage? Then Bahamas. Then Florida? How Strong Will Be Dorian Be Then? And New Storms Coming Off of Africa...

I know this must be very confusing for many.

There is a cone that looks dangerous for Florida.

And not to forget the islands in the track there.

And yet.........

Dorian is a small but steady Tropical Storm.

On one level it's fragile still.

On another level it's a fighter and as structure.

The bright colorful image below says much.

It has it's basic center. 

Note higher cloud tops white in the dark.

Reds, oranges, yellows fanning out.

What looks like a tail that wants to form.

Yet before it can form a real tail.....

it needs to survive dry air and shear.

And yes it has been doing that constantly.

Again I said it's a fighter.

The shear is noticeable to it's NW.

Dry air before the shear ...

Then there's the mountains of Hispaniola

For it to get to the point below.

It has to cross these mountains.

Note most are further inland.

The East tip of Hispaniola isn't as mountainous.

As you move towards the backbone of the Island.

And the top ridge you find the real high peaks.

The map below shows in red dots those high peaks.

So if Dorian can really thread through the Mona Passage.

That area of water between the DR and PR.

That would be a neat trick.....

...and help it stay alive.

I can think of better paths mentioned yesterday.

But the NHC sees it going thru there...

...so let's stick with that thought.

The images below are from the EURO

There are many versions.

This is a bit easier for newbies so to speak.

Leave the ensembles to die hard met ppl :)

Here we have our little Tropical Storm.

NOTE HOW CLOSE TO SOUTH AMERICA IT IS.

And that's important as there is some land interaction.

Not in it's mass but it deprives it of warm moist ocean air.

Then it moves amazingly through the Mona Passage.

On this model run....

(remember things change over time)

This track is like a Wish Cast.

Truly as we are all wishing it not to hit PR.

But this is akin to driving a motor boat...

Through a narrow passage in a big ocean.

Almost like hitting a hole in one.

That does happen...

The models suggest it can.

So let's go with that.

Now we get into the 3 to 5 day period.

The NHC has said there is low confidence here.

Strong confidence where it is today and tomorrow.

Note currently THIS model shows it due West of Florida.

Up West of WPB missing Miami.

Where does it go from there?

Going to switch over to www.windy.com

All of the rest of these images are from there.

You can use it ...it is very easy to use.

The EURO has it moving thru the islands.

Moving up towards DR and PR.

Note it's not a perfect storm here.

Right sided, dry air to it's SW

Almost dragging the dry air with it...

Kind of a neat illusion.

Now it emerges up into the Bahamas

Note it doesn't look like Andrew.

It doesn't look like a real hurricane.

A weak tropical storm perhaps.

Now North of the Bahamas it breathes.

It sucks in some warmer friendlier moist air.

Colors emerge.

Then it takes it up near Jax.

Kind of between the Cape and Jax.

Ormond Beach.

Daytona

Jax would need to watch it should this play out...

....in real time not model forecasts five days out.

Remember currently it is down near South America.

Moving through the Islands.

Forecast to lift up out of the Caribbean into the Bahamas.

Never lose sight of now while looking down the road.

There's no eye.

There's no eye wall.

There's no massive beautiful tail.

Just the dreams of what could be....

Maybe.

Now the EURO's dubious friend the GFS

Ironically the GFS is the model that 1st believed in Dorian.
Now it's turned it's back on it.
And now the EURO plays with it... go figure.
In the same general spot.
Dorian should be a race car driver..

GFS shows a weak Dorian.
Still traveling with dry air.
Battled shear in the Bahamas.
Far from South Beach.
Nowhere near Ft. Lauderdale.
Not even interested in the Florida Keys.



A kind of last gasp attempt to see Dabuh...
...in Jax ish

And Dabuh is singing a song alright.

It's lyrics have what's catching my attention too...

Not Dorian but the crew behind it.

This was my next post anyway.

My fonts are playing games today.

Not going to worry on it I'm at the beach still.

When thinking on this image below...

...from up above.

There's more where that one came from....

Models show another storm.

and a wave coming off at the perfect spot.

And another one behind that.

So now let's look at the wide view.

My question is.....

....why wouldn't it end up E of Florida.

Note there is a huge ball of convection there now.

This has been the pattern all year.

Low pressure goes towards low pressure.

Even meek low pressure as Dorian is weak.

Will still try to seek out low pressure.

Things we know.

1. It's currently not strong but solidly there.

2. It's down in the Islands... way down.

3. It's forecast to move up towards PR and DR.

Maybe Haiti gets some too.

4. Models change on each run.

5. Extrapolated down the line that makes a big difference.

6. Shear is badgering it.

7. Dry air is trying to deprive it.

8. It's always been tenacious.

Things we don't know currently.

1. Where for sure it will go after Hispaniola.

2. How strong it will be at that point.

3. Will this track verify?

4. Did the NHC get intensity correct?

5. Can Dorian find a sweeter spot for Dorian.

(more user friendly for a tropical storm)

6. Will Dorian become another statistic of Hispaniola?

7. Will it slide through the Bahamas?

8. Will it make landfall somewhere?

I know totally annoying I can't tell you for sure yet.

But remember it's very far South and small still.

This is one of the all time best loops.

Orange and gold is warm moist energy.

Blue and green is pretty but dry air.

Dark red is intense energy.

And you can watch them get their roll on...

When they begin to roll they are cruising.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

Note the huge warm moist ITCZ

Note the new wave coming off of Africa.

Note Dorian has lifted some off of South America.

And it has established an orange link to it's SE

That link is like a gas line feeding it's engine.

Last night there wasn't much orange there.

So it's very possible Dorian can ramp up a bit.

While fighting both shear and dry air.

It's done it the whole way since Africa.

Why stop now?

So stay tuned to our weather drama.

Don't cancel your Miami vacation for Labor Day.

Don't decide Miami is Ground Zero so go to Orlando.

Just hang in there.

You should always have travel insurance for Labor Day.

As Labor Day and hurricanes go hand in hand..don't they?

At Myrtle Beach...

watching Cantore and Dorian.

Can't get better than that.

I'll be back after breakfast.

Please watch Mike's Facebook Live if you have the time.

If not watch it later.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/

Levi Cowan is good at www.tropicaltidbits.com

But no one does it better right now than Mike.

Trying to answer questions in real time.

So impressive.

So is my view.

Gray but beautiful.

Back soon...

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Follow me there for real time responses and info.

Sorry for any typos... I really am on vacation :)