UPDATE TD Chantal. New Area in Yellow Off FL Coast AGAIN... Caribbean Blob Watching & Waves off of Africa. Where's Dorian Going to Form? Do You See the Pattern Yet?

The beginning of the end has begun for Chantal. Downgraded to depression status as of 11 pm. If it manages somehow to stick around another 24 hours, it should come to an end by the weekend. pic.twitter.com/3vGgQ85Zvz

— Phil Ferro (@PhilFerro7) August 22, 2019

Late night update.

Seems NHC thought Chantal was an overachiever.

Turns out she's falling apart faster than forecast.

Down near South Florida and the Bahamas.

Our Yellow Area is holding at 20%.

Diffuse convection across a wide area exists.

Next new update Thursday Morning.

Continue reading if you have not done so.

Might be an interesting day tomorrow....

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

That yellow area off South Florida could become 98L

Unless something pops in the Gulf of Mexico ...

Chantal way up there at the top of the picture.

The sun was just rising here on our side of the world.

And the clouds and convection E of Florida...

...that is our next system in this group.

Okay let's start with Tropical Storm Chantal, but remember there is a new area we are watching that has huge model support that would end up where Chantal is now. Do you see the pattern yet? I've ranted a bit on this in previous blogs. The new hot area of development for tropical systems this year seems to be off the coast of Florida and then they slide up along the coast over the water and so far out to sea. But, that pattern could remain while changes in track and intensity will occur so don't get lulled into a false sense of security that they will all go quietly out to sea.

Note waiting for 8 AM official info and trying to get this out so I can relax and listen to Mike talk on Facebook Live because he's good and love listening to him talk. Sure he will have something to say about the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean being ignored... maybe ;)

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/

Track maps shown below

NRL above.

Canadian below.

They both show more detail than the NHC

Discussion from the NHC that's important.

Note they have a degree of uncertainty down the road.

How far South does it go?

How weak does it get?

I'm adding in what might impact it if something else forms?

For now it's meandering.

Possibly surveying Greenland for future possibilities ;)

Seriously...

Now some commentary from Jim Williams.

He knows Hurricane History better than most.

Most would agree with him.

There is much inconsistency these days at the NHC.

Some systems they totally ignore.

Others they elevate to a higher status.

Many mediocre storms can go either way to be sure.

I waited to write this today as......

....I was waiting to see the NHC post the yellow circle.

I was pretty sure it was happening.

Why?

The strong model support that I'll show you below.

European below from www.windy.com

Breeding grounds of 2019. 

Begins to come together in the distant future.

Moves up to off the Carolinas.

We can do this in our sleep right?

Then there's an EYE... 

A nice depiction of a future hurricane it would seem.

Remember these are far out models still.

Not 10 or 20 days out but...

You get the idea.

So did the NHC.

Next it's near where 97L was yesterday morning.

Way much stronger...

Tries to make landfall near Newfoundland. 

Could it make landfall?

Possibly.

Should I mention another storm tries to form again ...

...in the same area on the very long range models?

Let's just look at the GFS 

Note the date.

August 30th.

You see the pattern yet?

Every time one leaves.....

...another one pops up to replace it.

Of course eventually fronts are stronger.

Things evolve a bit.

Something in Gulf of Mexico can develop.

Cross over North Florida and then..

...oh we kind of saw that too already.

For now the models have backed off of the Atlantic AGAIN.

This time of year every model run is watched.

We watch.

We track.

For now Florida has been lucky.

Well it's gotten plenty of rain but...

...hey it's Florida it rains.

That's why it's green all the time :)

Will leave you with one thought.

Our Fish Storm Chantal.

Our looper Chantal.

Could have an influence on the Atlantic... 

...and other systems.

At the least.

So fun to make fun of it...

(and everyone is)

But it's interesting.

Meanwhile models showing Caribbean Blob no love 

And lastly what is in a name?

The name Chantal remains.

Year after year....

as #Shakespeare said... what is in a name #Chantal ...cute @TARCweather very cute. Actually was a done deal from day one. https://t.co/pe1bqEvhMk

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) August 21, 2019

Cute mix of graphics of different Chantals.

Remember when I said things would get crazy online.

NOTE.... long term models... not 97L nor Chantal.

Everyone's wondering on Dorian.

Beware online today.

Tread carefully.

Take long term models with a bucket of salt!

Long range models doing some kinky things.

Stay tuned.

Oh and never forget Africa ....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir

Eventually one will spin and develop.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Please follow me there for real time information.

Ps... I'll update later today after next model runs.

Enjoy the video.

The pictures, the music.

I've never been to Cincinnati it occurs to me...

Florida feels a lot like this......

storms to the left...

...storms to the right.

And, you're the only game in town!

Here is an example.

Tread carefully with very long range models.

Please.

But hey if it gets you to go shopping...

Works for me.

Because better to be prepared ....

...than get to the store too late.

After everything you want is gone, gone, gone.