UPDATE TD Chantal. New Area in Yellow Off FL Coast AGAIN... Caribbean Blob Watching & Waves off of Africa. Where's Dorian Going to Form? Do You See the Pattern Yet?

The beginning of the end has begun for Chantal. Downgraded to depression status as of 11 pm. If it manages somehow to stick around another 24 hours, it should come to an end by the weekend. pic.twitter.com/3vGgQ85Zvz

— Phil Ferro (@PhilFerro7) August 22, 2019

Late night update.

Seems NHC thought Chantal was an overachiever.

Turns out she's falling apart faster than forecast.

Down near South Florida and the Bahamas.

Our Yellow Area is holding at 20%.

Diffuse convection across a wide area exists.

Next new update Thursday Morning.

Continue reading if you have not done so.

Might be an interesting day tomorrow....

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

That yellow area off South Florida could become 98L

Unless something pops in the Gulf of Mexico ...

Chantal way up there at the top of the picture.

The sun was just rising here on our side of the world.

And the clouds and convection E of Florida...

...that is our next system in this group.

Okay let's start with Tropical Storm Chantal, but remember there is a new area we are watching that has huge model support that would end up where Chantal is now. Do you see the pattern yet? I've ranted a bit on this in previous blogs. The new hot area of development for tropical systems this year seems to be off the coast of Florida and then they slide up along the coast over the water and so far out to sea. But, that pattern could remain while changes in track and intensity will occur so don't get lulled into a false sense of security that they will all go quietly out to sea.

Note waiting for 8 AM official info and trying to get this out so I can relax and listen to Mike talk on Facebook Live because he's good and love listening to him talk. Sure he will have something to say about the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean being ignored... maybe ;)

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/

Track maps shown below

NRL above.

Canadian below.

They both show more detail than the NHC

Discussion from the NHC that's important.

Note they have a degree of uncertainty down the road.

How far South does it go?

How weak does it get?

I'm adding in what might impact it if something else forms?

For now it's meandering.

Possibly surveying Greenland for future possibilities ;)

Seriously...

Now some commentary from Jim Williams.

He knows Hurricane History better than most.

Most would agree with him.

There is much inconsistency these days at the NHC.

Some systems they totally ignore.

Others they elevate to a higher status.

Many mediocre storms can go either way to be sure.

I waited to write this today as......

....I was waiting to see the NHC post the yellow circle.

I was pretty sure it was happening.

Why?

The strong model support that I'll show you below.

European below from www.windy.com

Breeding grounds of 2019. 

Begins to come together in the distant future.

Moves up to off the Carolinas.

We can do this in our sleep right?

Then there's an EYE... 

A nice depiction of a future hurricane it would seem.

Remember these are far out models still.

Not 10 or 20 days out but...

You get the idea.

So did the NHC.

Next it's near where 97L was yesterday morning.

Way much stronger...

Tries to make landfall near Newfoundland. 

Could it make landfall?

Possibly.

Should I mention another storm tries to form again ...

...in the same area on the very long range models?

Let's just look at the GFS 

Note the date.

August 30th.

You see the pattern yet?

Every time one leaves.....

...another one pops up to replace it.

Of course eventually fronts are stronger.

Things evolve a bit.

Something in Gulf of Mexico can develop.

Cross over North Florida and then..

...oh we kind of saw that too already.

For now the models have backed off of the Atlantic AGAIN.

This time of year every model run is watched.

We watch.

We track.

For now Florida has been lucky.

Well it's gotten plenty of rain but...

...hey it's Florida it rains.

That's why it's green all the time :)

Will leave you with one thought.

Our Fish Storm Chantal.

Our looper Chantal.

Could have an influence on the Atlantic... 

...and other systems.

At the least.

So fun to make fun of it...

(and everyone is)

But it's interesting.

Meanwhile models showing Caribbean Blob no love 

And lastly what is in a name?

The name Chantal remains.

Year after year....

as #Shakespeare said... what is in a name #Chantal ...cute @TARCweather very cute. Actually was a done deal from day one. https://t.co/pe1bqEvhMk

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) August 21, 2019

Cute mix of graphics of different Chantals.

Remember when I said things would get crazy online.

NOTE.... long term models... not 97L nor Chantal.

Everyone's wondering on Dorian.

Beware online today.

Tread carefully.

Take long term models with a bucket of salt!

Long range models doing some kinky things.

Stay tuned.

Oh and never forget Africa ....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir

Eventually one will spin and develop.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Please follow me there for real time information.

Ps... I'll update later today after next model runs.

Enjoy the video.

The pictures, the music.

I've never been to Cincinnati it occurs to me...

Florida feels a lot like this......

storms to the left...

...storms to the right.

And, you're the only game in town!

Here is an example.

Tread carefully with very long range models.

Please.

But hey if it gets you to go shopping...

Works for me.

Because better to be prepared ....

...than get to the store too late.

After everything you want is gone, gone, gone.

Updated 2PM. Area off the E Coast Needs to be Watched. May "Interact" with a Cold Front if the Cold Front Actually Shows Up. Stay tuned. Crayola Thoughts and Jelly Bean Creations.

2 PM Update.

NHC pulls the plus on GOM area.

Rain continues.

Rain will continue.

Doesn't need a name to rain.

Compare and contrast from earlier.

GOM area becomes the NWS problem.

Please continue reading.

The thoughts expressed this morning....

....do not change.

I'll add one thing.

If a cold front comes down strong enough to change the general daytime weather significantly before July 21st I'll be thrilled. I'm just doubtful and not very trusting of Early July Cold fronts after a few weeks or "feels like" temperatures being in the low 100s. I'm not very trusting of models, they have not been stellar lately. Hope springs eternal though .... though it's usually wiped away like sweat on the brow in Mid July.

Nice front.

Then it's gone.

Stationary.

Loop the loop for yourself below.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

***

This official image of the morning was released by the NHC at 8 AM and will be updated at 2 PM. It doesn't really tell the story. The "Yellow X" basically over New Orleans today after they moved it West after placing it near St. Marks Florida yesterday. The concern was always for flooding in bayou regions that have been built over and developed into suburbia. Note to TWC the French Quarter does not flood (not even in Hurricane Katrina) because after trial and error the early settlers realized "hey this area doesn't flood" and they built THERE. Sadly generations down the road we are not that smart or we think we can just build better drains. How's that working out? Most days of the year it works just fine until you get a pissant small, swirl on the radar that looks like a microcane moving along the highway; it also sucks in a real hurricane like Katrina. Remember French Quarter = High Ground. Rest of the area is low land, the bottom of the bowl and as you move West you hit one bayou after another all the way into Texas until you finally hit the Buffalo Bayou that floods badly when it rains much. 

The fact that TWC keeps showing the French Quarter Cam (advertiser revenue?) is beyond me as it's high and dry and no one is up at that hour in the morning except city workers. There is a real flooding problem going on as vehicular arteries flood fast when copious amounts of rain move in after minor No Name Yellow Swirls with Zero Percentages of Developing pound the area in the morning during Drive Time. Find a better cam or maybe go to a reporter in the area covering the weather. 

If you want news fast go to Twitter. Many of you are on Twitter. Many of you are waiting for the Ye Olde AOL Message Boards to come back. I know it was fun while we had it. Most everyone has found their way to Twitter, unless they are posting pictures on Instagram or SnapChat. Twitter tells the story in real time way better than EDTV ever imagined. Personally I like Twitter better than Survivor. Real news from real people. Headlines and official press releases are great but nothing like really seeing where the problem is vs where the weather is not on a Weather Cam that leads people to Bourbon Street to spend their money while in New Orleans. It also looks like the Weather Cam by Sloppy Joes in Key West but I digress.

People go to Mike for Real News.

Breaking News.

Telling it like it is News.

Close up map of a beautiful city.

It is prone to flooding.

I love New Orleans.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drainage_in_New_Orleans

Nuff said on that in particular but despite the zero percent chances and I was annoyed many mets played down the possibility of flooding from this very small system - - - it's worth noting there is flooding as I said there would be. And, satellite imagery shows it won't end soon as it's pulling up much tropical moisture and training it along very specific lines.  Note the picture below that shows the concentration of orange to the South and Southwest of our Yellow Swirl that in the loop below you can see is being sucked into the general area. Water rescues are happening in a few places.

I guess it should have been a yellow-orange swirl.

Maybe they should expand the color guides.

Or like make up.

Matte, frosted and metallic.

Yellow X is such an underwhelming name.

Moving on to purple.

We definitely need more diversity from the NHC.

There are purple splotches popping up everywhere.

Apparently they don't read press releases.

Tropical possibilities.

Many close in.

Check out that Blue-Purple color combo in the Atlantic.

It has a very short window of opportunity.

No name but still purple fame.

Seriously press releases are good and academic reports are great, but what develops in real time from both minor tropical disturbances and major hurricanes going through rapid intensification over warm water close in is the real story. People love to pass #clickbait around during slow times when there is nothing happening. What will the 2018 Hurricane Season be like? We will be able to know for sure when it's over and people are complaining about how bad the Winter of 2018 is in December. Let's hope Macy's stays alive because personally I'm beginning to worry on the Macy's Day Thanksgiving Parade. Would Apple or Amazon take over sponsorship and would anyone care? 

Bottom Line.

Tropics Tuesday.

All our current players in one spot.

New Orleans Flooding.

Upper Level Low E of Florida

Further East is our new yellow X

Bright yellow orange convection 20% in 5 Days

Keeping this simple.

1. The tropical disturbance now over New Orleans dumping huge amounts of rain. It's moving West and will take it's localized flood potential with it so keep watching and pay attention to breaking news and your Weather App do not wait for Momma to send you a message on WhatsApp that you are ignoring while on Snapchat.

https://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2018/07/flash_flood_warning_new_orlean.html

2. The beautiful big Upper Level Low that looks like a Black Hurricane in reverse color mode is moving West with the flow. Strong high in place. We might need to watch it once it's in the Gulf of Mexico. Time will tell. The Dirty side of the ULL (every ULL has one) will keep the temperatures down in Florida where rain will be the main game.

3. The area behind the ULL with the bright yellow and orange color with bits of red thrown in is the area the NHC put up this morning at 8 AM that looks like a big Lemon Meringue Jelly Bean. I do not make things up. Note picture below. Read the discussion from the NHC first posted above. Note the word "interaction" is such a vague word. It leaves the door open for possibilities covered under the term "interaction" in my opinion. #could #unlikely #interaction = very vague terminology.

The shape of the "formation zone" is because it is generally forecast to stay off shore (get ready for it) because the cold front is going to pick it up and sweep it away. Personally I would LOVE a cold front that sweeps this heat wave out to sea but I have it on good authority that it's not happening any time soon and if it does it's a one day event before the front comes back. If that is so then it would tug at anything actually there and move it away a bit and then retrograde back a bit towards the coast. This is highly suggestive discussion above on long range development but I am thinking of going to Myrtle Beach sometime next week to cool off a bit :) and watch the waves .... play at Broadway on the Beach (or is it Boardwalk on the Beach?) and drink cool drinks at Margaritaville because according to the Grinch Who Stole the Hurricane Season AKA Phil Klotzbach we will have a mediocre season but as he reminds everyone it only takes one hurricane even in a quiet season to produce misery (I'm paraphrasing what he wrote ... check out the link below and read it for yourself) so....  If I was to read the hysteria online about the Hurricane Season I'd figure the only hurricane I'll see anytime soon in the Atlantic Basin is in a pretty tall glass.

Extra Credit Discussion.

Go back up there and look at the loop in motion. Note the blue and green arrows I drew show the differing wind flow. It's interesting. Keep watching.

BobbiStorm's Bottom Line:

Don't buy the current scenario that this will go out to sea if it develops. It could go out to sea but there is no lock there on the cold front scenario or any fast end to the this hot summer in the Carolinas. 

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/07/2018-07.pdf

Much love...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5

Ps... If you are interested in buying someone a nice present for Christmas (around the time that the weak El Nino may be affecting our Winter) you might want to buy a child a box of Crayola Crayons. Stimulate the economy. Seems you can also use them to make awesome pictures of yellow orange sunsets or leaping lava in Hawaii! If you are interested in recipes with Jelly Bellies if you are really tropically bored here's a link for that.

https://www.jellybelly.com/recipes-and-diy

http://kelseysscraps.blogspot.com/2013/09/crayon-melt-3-yelloworange.html

UPDATED! 11 PM TD14 FORMS IN ATLANTIC... As Predicted ... RED 70% 96L 97L Hurricane Jose, Are Lee & Maria Behind Him? CV Waves Coming Alive. Hurricane Season Goes On and On.

TD 14.

As I said below.

It was just a matter of time.

Cabo Verde Wave.

They upgraded based on Dvorak.

You've seen me post this loop.

Simplistically measures strength.

Discussion explains the upgrade below.

Cone for TD14

HUGE model spread.

Either West bound...

..or a fish storm.

Obviously  many are hoping for fried fish.

Stay tuned.

As for Jose.

The NHC keeps the cone just off the coast.

Let's see what they do next.

Hard to believe Jose went so far South.

He soon as an opportunity to go North again.

As I said this morning these waves looked better than the graphics showed and they were quickly upgraded to Invests and they went from orange to red. I wouldn't be surprised to see advisories started on one of these waves. Needs to be watched carefully down the road. Later in this log there are images on model tracks. 

Leaving cones up here so you can see..

The westward movement of the cone.

All day.

Going to leave the 5 PM Jose cone up ...

..and I'll update the 11 PM at above.

They downgraded Jose to TS.

Apparently it was a bad boy.

Wouldn't follow the forecast.

He is forecast to be a hurricane again.

After he sits in his corner it seems.

I'll update in the AM after 8 PM.

I'm in a hotel room tonight.

My tv thinks I'm in Montana.

You decide...

..you know me better.

Yah...

The guide in the room said TWC.

Weather Nation is not TWC.

I am not in Montana.

But it's a nice room...

... nice city.

South bound back to Miami.

 Big question is where is #TD14 going/

:)

* * *

2 pm. 

Both now red. 

70% in 5 day. 

Will update models later. 

On the road.. 

Invest 96L and 97L formed

Nice twist there.

Moving fast.

Everything's moving fast today.

Stay tuned for fast breaking updates.

Obviously.

Check back often.

Later today I'll post models for 96L 97L

Now that we have invest...

..we will have model runs.

* * * 

Yeah...

Fall color in the tropics.

So a lot to talk about today.

Nothing definitive in the end game.

Sunrise over Atlantic

There are two tropical waves off the coast of Africa. We could call them Wave A and Wave B or Lee and Maria. Or we can wait until they get an Invest at the NRL and a floater on the NHC site. Can both develop is the question. Most long term models show 1 storm, not a huge hurricane, let's say a Tropical Storm for now moving west.  I'm going to talk first on the waves as most people seeing them may tend towards tropical panic or begin taking Happy Camper Pills. Tropics are on over drive this year as if they are making up for all those recent slow seasons. There is a site many of us use that has lately become popular on social media. Much to play with there and one thing it does is show you models in a different way than other sites do so sharing it with you below. Think Earthnull doing models.  Of course they don't agree, do they ever? But they both show two possible tropical problems. The Euro gets Jose way too close for comfort for New York, Long Island, New England and Cape Cod and it shows a system moving near the Islands. The GFS, people complain but everyone watches it, moves Jose way out to sea rather than having coastal impacts, however shows a stronger system trapped under the ridge some close to South Florida. Good news, bad news ... it's all a matter of location which you are more concerned with when watching the tropics. GFS good for NE, Euro not. GFS not so good for Florida, but takes Jose out to sea.  Images shown below.

windy.com

Official cones for Jose.

I put up 3 of them below.

The larger one is the recent one.

There's a saying in forecasting.

Watch the trend.

The cone inches closer.

Wider view.

View above shows why he is looping.

Caught between two highs.

Waiting his turn.

Let's not worry so much today on Jose. Not saying he isn't an issue, he might be, but he is far away and currently looping however while looping he is trying to pull it back together. Time will tell and the the NHC will shuttle the cone about based mostly on the EURO with a blend of the consensus mixed in there. They have made it clear in their own discussion they weigh heavily on the EURO.  

Good discussion from NHC

Wave talk from Blake.

And there are the waves below.

And Jose.

Lead wave looks healthier than 40%

Then again the 2nd wave is healthy.

Healthy over water.

They know how to swim.

Global view.

I wrote a long post yesterday explaining long range thoughts on Jose and recovery from Irma. Since I wrote that I heard from several Key West friends who evacuated or stayed, both okay as are their homes. I haven't heard from a few who obviously have no power for their cell phones. Not everyone has generators. Island culture and all.. some do, some don't. In Miami and Broward my kids have power and my son-in-law hasn't been heard from so we think he's in Key West with Fema. Or on his way there... the further down the Florida Keys you go the weaker the cell phone service is.....  So check out that blog post with pictures of damage from Big Pine Key as well as some history of the Florida Keys, why there are three distinct areas and why people in the lower keys get annoyed when you think they are close to Key Largo. Upper, Middle, Lower and Key West is in theory part of the Lower Keys though it tends to be in it's own world. And, a little biographical information on me and my family's connection to Key West, Tampa and Miami (Quincy is not exempt but I didn't go there) so read on please. I'll update on top as the day evolves and as for the waves.. it's only a matter of time.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/09/irma-recovery-jose-looping-but-forecast.html

And, I want you to remember one thing here. I said earlier that everything is locational depending on your perspective and location. We will always remember IRMA as the Major Hurricane that took on the whole state of Florida before causing death and destruction in Georgia as well as flooding in Georgia and South Carolina. But, we tend to forget we got the "weaker" version of Irma. In truth Irma slammed into the Islands like a wicked machine tearing up everything in it's path. How people survived is miraculous and shows how we can build structures to withstand Cat 5 Hurricanes. It takes money to build such structures and those not in them ran from the water and hid from the wind and somehow survived. And many died and the death toll is a moving target so I don't like to publish it as if that is a final figure.  IRMA was the 185 MPH CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE that slammed into the Islands and caused much worse damage there than what we see in the Florida Keys and Naples. I know it's hard to believe but true, and don't forget to thank Cuba for "weakening" Irma a bit as they took a strong hit and no one is talking about that. Had Irma hit the Florida Keys and Marco Island looking like that the death toll and the damage would be exponentially worse. Trust me. So say a prayer of thanks.

I urge you to check out Mike's Facebook Page. Why you ask? It's a great place to share your thoughts. Kind of like the old days of message boards and chat rooms. And when I say "share" I mean fears, concerns, jokes, thoughts. It's a friendly place, not as many nerdy, geeky people fighting on a message board about this model or that model and who has the better graphic. There's a lot of love, friendship and compassion. Like Mike... it's very real and if you feel the need to talk to others about your love or fear of hurricanes it's a good place. Sometimes bottling up those thoughts and emotions isn't good for the psyche so if you need to share... go there. And, Mike is funny... and wise and it's a feel good environment ... a sort of safe place and Lord knows with the tropics on speed this season we all need a safe place.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/09/irma-recovery-jose-looping-but-forecast.html

Ps again link to last post.

Richer in details and discussion.

Good pics too..