Turning the Calendar Moving Towards the End of Summer. Looking Towards August and September? Sales, Amazon Prime. Shop for Hurricane Supplies

I just want to put a few thoughts in your heads today and maybe you will think on them a bit more seriously. I know it's hot in many places and it's been hot for a while now and it feels like the heat is never going to end. It's going to end and even now as we can see cool fronts have made it down into the Carolinas enough for the heat to mitigate and go out on a late night ice cream date. A few weeks back there was no time or hour that anyone wanted to leave the AC behind to venture outside. Day by day we get closer to Fall as we have turned the corner on the longest day of the year and are working our way back. Nothing says "summer" on it's way out than the reality that "Summer Stuff" is on sale more than 50% off in every department store.

You must have wondered why I put shorts, beach bags and sandals on my page vs the regular snapshots of the usual suspects in the tropics. There aren't many usual suspects today as Post Tropical Subtropical Storm Beryl exits our side of the world. The NHC really loves to give tags to things vs just calling it Beryl as a storm by any name is still a storm. But it's always good for officials in responsible branches of the government to be picayune about the details. Models play with a wave that will exit Africa and another model shows development down in the deep Caribbean. Closer to home the reality of that aforementioned cool front that died off the coast tossing us up a surprise is more likely as shear in the Caribbean has so far been a killer to development in that part of the basin.

You can see the fronts moving down.

The dry spotted dusty zone.

Usual suspects are there.

But 2018 has been filled with surprises.

Expect the surprises to continue.

And now is a very good time to look down the road.

To look down the tropical road.

www.crownweather.com

This map above was put out by Crown Weather and it's a great map to think on. Add in the reality of this season so far and understand as tropical waves get more viable and the Bermuda High gets stronger the future tracks of storms will be closer to the coast than Beryl and Chris.

In theory the following storms will follow the same similar pattern set by the early storms of 2018, however they will come closer to the coast and more likely flirt with landfall; actually they will most likely make landfall somewhere. The high latitude constant development of severe weather goes on and I'm concerned about the Mid Atlantic area to the NE being at a higher risk than normal. Normally around August 15th we really have to watch the Atlantic. I believe we are running a bit ahead of schedule so we should start watching the Atlantic in about 10 days or so (remember I said surprises happen) to see some subtle shifts as we transition into the real part of the Hurricane Season. 

So if you have deals on Amazon Prime this week or your local store is selling off it's summer supplies such as BBQ grills that might come in handy if you lose power as they want to bring in their fire pits for the backyard... you might want to think on your priorities. Nothing says we are getting closer to the Hurricane Season and it's distant cousin NFL Football than sales on summer going at up to 70%.

Make good use of the quiet time, enjoy what's left of the summer and remember to stock up on hurricane supplies as you may need them as we get closer to September.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Crown Weather is one of the best, most reliable and least likely to hype any weather event, yet at the same time properly prepares you for what might impact you region. It's a paid site unlike www.spaghettimodels.com but he goes deep into discussion on what really is happening in the tropics and otherwise.

I'm not going anywhere but it's a great song and very good to remember. Because tropical systems may be unwanted guests come September.

Updated 2PM. Area off the E Coast Needs to be Watched. May "Interact" with a Cold Front if the Cold Front Actually Shows Up. Stay tuned. Crayola Thoughts and Jelly Bean Creations.

2 PM Update.

NHC pulls the plus on GOM area.

Rain continues.

Rain will continue.

Doesn't need a name to rain.

Compare and contrast from earlier.

GOM area becomes the NWS problem.

Please continue reading.

The thoughts expressed this morning....

....do not change.

I'll add one thing.

If a cold front comes down strong enough to change the general daytime weather significantly before July 21st I'll be thrilled. I'm just doubtful and not very trusting of Early July Cold fronts after a few weeks or "feels like" temperatures being in the low 100s. I'm not very trusting of models, they have not been stellar lately. Hope springs eternal though .... though it's usually wiped away like sweat on the brow in Mid July.

Nice front.

Then it's gone.

Stationary.

Loop the loop for yourself below.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

***

This official image of the morning was released by the NHC at 8 AM and will be updated at 2 PM. It doesn't really tell the story. The "Yellow X" basically over New Orleans today after they moved it West after placing it near St. Marks Florida yesterday. The concern was always for flooding in bayou regions that have been built over and developed into suburbia. Note to TWC the French Quarter does not flood (not even in Hurricane Katrina) because after trial and error the early settlers realized "hey this area doesn't flood" and they built THERE. Sadly generations down the road we are not that smart or we think we can just build better drains. How's that working out? Most days of the year it works just fine until you get a pissant small, swirl on the radar that looks like a microcane moving along the highway; it also sucks in a real hurricane like Katrina. Remember French Quarter = High Ground. Rest of the area is low land, the bottom of the bowl and as you move West you hit one bayou after another all the way into Texas until you finally hit the Buffalo Bayou that floods badly when it rains much. 

The fact that TWC keeps showing the French Quarter Cam (advertiser revenue?) is beyond me as it's high and dry and no one is up at that hour in the morning except city workers. There is a real flooding problem going on as vehicular arteries flood fast when copious amounts of rain move in after minor No Name Yellow Swirls with Zero Percentages of Developing pound the area in the morning during Drive Time. Find a better cam or maybe go to a reporter in the area covering the weather. 

If you want news fast go to Twitter. Many of you are on Twitter. Many of you are waiting for the Ye Olde AOL Message Boards to come back. I know it was fun while we had it. Most everyone has found their way to Twitter, unless they are posting pictures on Instagram or SnapChat. Twitter tells the story in real time way better than EDTV ever imagined. Personally I like Twitter better than Survivor. Real news from real people. Headlines and official press releases are great but nothing like really seeing where the problem is vs where the weather is not on a Weather Cam that leads people to Bourbon Street to spend their money while in New Orleans. It also looks like the Weather Cam by Sloppy Joes in Key West but I digress.

People go to Mike for Real News.

Breaking News.

Telling it like it is News.

Close up map of a beautiful city.

It is prone to flooding.

I love New Orleans.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drainage_in_New_Orleans

Nuff said on that in particular but despite the zero percent chances and I was annoyed many mets played down the possibility of flooding from this very small system - - - it's worth noting there is flooding as I said there would be. And, satellite imagery shows it won't end soon as it's pulling up much tropical moisture and training it along very specific lines.  Note the picture below that shows the concentration of orange to the South and Southwest of our Yellow Swirl that in the loop below you can see is being sucked into the general area. Water rescues are happening in a few places.

I guess it should have been a yellow-orange swirl.

Maybe they should expand the color guides.

Or like make up.

Matte, frosted and metallic.

Yellow X is such an underwhelming name.

Moving on to purple.

We definitely need more diversity from the NHC.

There are purple splotches popping up everywhere.

Apparently they don't read press releases.

Tropical possibilities.

Many close in.

Check out that Blue-Purple color combo in the Atlantic.

It has a very short window of opportunity.

No name but still purple fame.

Seriously press releases are good and academic reports are great, but what develops in real time from both minor tropical disturbances and major hurricanes going through rapid intensification over warm water close in is the real story. People love to pass #clickbait around during slow times when there is nothing happening. What will the 2018 Hurricane Season be like? We will be able to know for sure when it's over and people are complaining about how bad the Winter of 2018 is in December. Let's hope Macy's stays alive because personally I'm beginning to worry on the Macy's Day Thanksgiving Parade. Would Apple or Amazon take over sponsorship and would anyone care? 

Bottom Line.

Tropics Tuesday.

All our current players in one spot.

New Orleans Flooding.

Upper Level Low E of Florida

Further East is our new yellow X

Bright yellow orange convection 20% in 5 Days

Keeping this simple.

1. The tropical disturbance now over New Orleans dumping huge amounts of rain. It's moving West and will take it's localized flood potential with it so keep watching and pay attention to breaking news and your Weather App do not wait for Momma to send you a message on WhatsApp that you are ignoring while on Snapchat.

https://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2018/07/flash_flood_warning_new_orlean.html

2. The beautiful big Upper Level Low that looks like a Black Hurricane in reverse color mode is moving West with the flow. Strong high in place. We might need to watch it once it's in the Gulf of Mexico. Time will tell. The Dirty side of the ULL (every ULL has one) will keep the temperatures down in Florida where rain will be the main game.

3. The area behind the ULL with the bright yellow and orange color with bits of red thrown in is the area the NHC put up this morning at 8 AM that looks like a big Lemon Meringue Jelly Bean. I do not make things up. Note picture below. Read the discussion from the NHC first posted above. Note the word "interaction" is such a vague word. It leaves the door open for possibilities covered under the term "interaction" in my opinion. #could #unlikely #interaction = very vague terminology.

The shape of the "formation zone" is because it is generally forecast to stay off shore (get ready for it) because the cold front is going to pick it up and sweep it away. Personally I would LOVE a cold front that sweeps this heat wave out to sea but I have it on good authority that it's not happening any time soon and if it does it's a one day event before the front comes back. If that is so then it would tug at anything actually there and move it away a bit and then retrograde back a bit towards the coast. This is highly suggestive discussion above on long range development but I am thinking of going to Myrtle Beach sometime next week to cool off a bit :) and watch the waves .... play at Broadway on the Beach (or is it Boardwalk on the Beach?) and drink cool drinks at Margaritaville because according to the Grinch Who Stole the Hurricane Season AKA Phil Klotzbach we will have a mediocre season but as he reminds everyone it only takes one hurricane even in a quiet season to produce misery (I'm paraphrasing what he wrote ... check out the link below and read it for yourself) so....  If I was to read the hysteria online about the Hurricane Season I'd figure the only hurricane I'll see anytime soon in the Atlantic Basin is in a pretty tall glass.

Extra Credit Discussion.

Go back up there and look at the loop in motion. Note the blue and green arrows I drew show the differing wind flow. It's interesting. Keep watching.

BobbiStorm's Bottom Line:

Don't buy the current scenario that this will go out to sea if it develops. It could go out to sea but there is no lock there on the cold front scenario or any fast end to the this hot summer in the Carolinas. 

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/07/2018-07.pdf

Much love...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5

Ps... If you are interested in buying someone a nice present for Christmas (around the time that the weak El Nino may be affecting our Winter) you might want to buy a child a box of Crayola Crayons. Stimulate the economy. Seems you can also use them to make awesome pictures of yellow orange sunsets or leaping lava in Hawaii! If you are interested in recipes with Jelly Bellies if you are really tropically bored here's a link for that.

https://www.jellybelly.com/recipes-and-diy

http://kelseysscraps.blogspot.com/2013/09/crayon-melt-3-yelloworange.html