Updated 2PM. Area off the E Coast Needs to be Watched. May "Interact" with a Cold Front if the Cold Front Actually Shows Up. Stay tuned. Crayola Thoughts and Jelly Bean Creations.

2 PM Update.

NHC pulls the plus on GOM area.

Rain continues.

Rain will continue.

Doesn't need a name to rain.

Compare and contrast from earlier.

GOM area becomes the NWS problem.

Please continue reading.

The thoughts expressed this morning....

....do not change.

I'll add one thing.

If a cold front comes down strong enough to change the general daytime weather significantly before July 21st I'll be thrilled. I'm just doubtful and not very trusting of Early July Cold fronts after a few weeks or "feels like" temperatures being in the low 100s. I'm not very trusting of models, they have not been stellar lately. Hope springs eternal though .... though it's usually wiped away like sweat on the brow in Mid July.

Nice front.

Then it's gone.

Stationary.

Loop the loop for yourself below.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

***

This official image of the morning was released by the NHC at 8 AM and will be updated at 2 PM. It doesn't really tell the story. The "Yellow X" basically over New Orleans today after they moved it West after placing it near St. Marks Florida yesterday. The concern was always for flooding in bayou regions that have been built over and developed into suburbia. Note to TWC the French Quarter does not flood (not even in Hurricane Katrina) because after trial and error the early settlers realized "hey this area doesn't flood" and they built THERE. Sadly generations down the road we are not that smart or we think we can just build better drains. How's that working out? Most days of the year it works just fine until you get a pissant small, swirl on the radar that looks like a microcane moving along the highway; it also sucks in a real hurricane like Katrina. Remember French Quarter = High Ground. Rest of the area is low land, the bottom of the bowl and as you move West you hit one bayou after another all the way into Texas until you finally hit the Buffalo Bayou that floods badly when it rains much. 

The fact that TWC keeps showing the French Quarter Cam (advertiser revenue?) is beyond me as it's high and dry and no one is up at that hour in the morning except city workers. There is a real flooding problem going on as vehicular arteries flood fast when copious amounts of rain move in after minor No Name Yellow Swirls with Zero Percentages of Developing pound the area in the morning during Drive Time. Find a better cam or maybe go to a reporter in the area covering the weather. 

If you want news fast go to Twitter. Many of you are on Twitter. Many of you are waiting for the Ye Olde AOL Message Boards to come back. I know it was fun while we had it. Most everyone has found their way to Twitter, unless they are posting pictures on Instagram or SnapChat. Twitter tells the story in real time way better than EDTV ever imagined. Personally I like Twitter better than Survivor. Real news from real people. Headlines and official press releases are great but nothing like really seeing where the problem is vs where the weather is not on a Weather Cam that leads people to Bourbon Street to spend their money while in New Orleans. It also looks like the Weather Cam by Sloppy Joes in Key West but I digress.

People go to Mike for Real News.

Breaking News.

Telling it like it is News.

Close up map of a beautiful city.

It is prone to flooding.

I love New Orleans.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drainage_in_New_Orleans

Nuff said on that in particular but despite the zero percent chances and I was annoyed many mets played down the possibility of flooding from this very small system - - - it's worth noting there is flooding as I said there would be. And, satellite imagery shows it won't end soon as it's pulling up much tropical moisture and training it along very specific lines.  Note the picture below that shows the concentration of orange to the South and Southwest of our Yellow Swirl that in the loop below you can see is being sucked into the general area. Water rescues are happening in a few places.

I guess it should have been a yellow-orange swirl.

Maybe they should expand the color guides.

Or like make up.

Matte, frosted and metallic.

Yellow X is such an underwhelming name.

Moving on to purple.

We definitely need more diversity from the NHC.

There are purple splotches popping up everywhere.

Apparently they don't read press releases.

Tropical possibilities.

Many close in.

Check out that Blue-Purple color combo in the Atlantic.

It has a very short window of opportunity.

No name but still purple fame.

Seriously press releases are good and academic reports are great, but what develops in real time from both minor tropical disturbances and major hurricanes going through rapid intensification over warm water close in is the real story. People love to pass #clickbait around during slow times when there is nothing happening. What will the 2018 Hurricane Season be like? We will be able to know for sure when it's over and people are complaining about how bad the Winter of 2018 is in December. Let's hope Macy's stays alive because personally I'm beginning to worry on the Macy's Day Thanksgiving Parade. Would Apple or Amazon take over sponsorship and would anyone care? 

Bottom Line.

Tropics Tuesday.

All our current players in one spot.

New Orleans Flooding.

Upper Level Low E of Florida

Further East is our new yellow X

Bright yellow orange convection 20% in 5 Days

Keeping this simple.

1. The tropical disturbance now over New Orleans dumping huge amounts of rain. It's moving West and will take it's localized flood potential with it so keep watching and pay attention to breaking news and your Weather App do not wait for Momma to send you a message on WhatsApp that you are ignoring while on Snapchat.

https://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2018/07/flash_flood_warning_new_orlean.html

2. The beautiful big Upper Level Low that looks like a Black Hurricane in reverse color mode is moving West with the flow. Strong high in place. We might need to watch it once it's in the Gulf of Mexico. Time will tell. The Dirty side of the ULL (every ULL has one) will keep the temperatures down in Florida where rain will be the main game.

3. The area behind the ULL with the bright yellow and orange color with bits of red thrown in is the area the NHC put up this morning at 8 AM that looks like a big Lemon Meringue Jelly Bean. I do not make things up. Note picture below. Read the discussion from the NHC first posted above. Note the word "interaction" is such a vague word. It leaves the door open for possibilities covered under the term "interaction" in my opinion. #could #unlikely #interaction = very vague terminology.

The shape of the "formation zone" is because it is generally forecast to stay off shore (get ready for it) because the cold front is going to pick it up and sweep it away. Personally I would LOVE a cold front that sweeps this heat wave out to sea but I have it on good authority that it's not happening any time soon and if it does it's a one day event before the front comes back. If that is so then it would tug at anything actually there and move it away a bit and then retrograde back a bit towards the coast. This is highly suggestive discussion above on long range development but I am thinking of going to Myrtle Beach sometime next week to cool off a bit :) and watch the waves .... play at Broadway on the Beach (or is it Boardwalk on the Beach?) and drink cool drinks at Margaritaville because according to the Grinch Who Stole the Hurricane Season AKA Phil Klotzbach we will have a mediocre season but as he reminds everyone it only takes one hurricane even in a quiet season to produce misery (I'm paraphrasing what he wrote ... check out the link below and read it for yourself) so....  If I was to read the hysteria online about the Hurricane Season I'd figure the only hurricane I'll see anytime soon in the Atlantic Basin is in a pretty tall glass.

Extra Credit Discussion.

Go back up there and look at the loop in motion. Note the blue and green arrows I drew show the differing wind flow. It's interesting. Keep watching.

BobbiStorm's Bottom Line:

Don't buy the current scenario that this will go out to sea if it develops. It could go out to sea but there is no lock there on the cold front scenario or any fast end to the this hot summer in the Carolinas. 

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/07/2018-07.pdf

Much love...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5

Ps... If you are interested in buying someone a nice present for Christmas (around the time that the weak El Nino may be affecting our Winter) you might want to buy a child a box of Crayola Crayons. Stimulate the economy. Seems you can also use them to make awesome pictures of yellow orange sunsets or leaping lava in Hawaii! If you are interested in recipes with Jelly Bellies if you are really tropically bored here's a link for that.

https://www.jellybelly.com/recipes-and-diy

http://kelseysscraps.blogspot.com/2013/09/crayon-melt-3-yelloworange.html

What do Fire Ants and Tropical Storm Rina Have in Common with Marshmallows? Tropics Throw Back Thursday

Off to see the Queen.

The track keeps bending to the right.

Maybe Rina is learning how to curtsy

Post Tropical as of 11 AM.

I've never understood the whole to do about the Queen.

Historically I get the importance but...

Well.. my mother was into watching the Royals.

Her mother's family lived in England.

They adopted many English customs.

She didn't curtsy for anyone...

Maybe it's a Girl Crush thing?

I've never wanted to be a Queen.

Maybe my  mother did ;)

The anniversary of my mother's death is coming up; in the Jewish world we call it a Yarzeit and that's a time to remember her. Hard to forget your mother really... though some do. This year the  memory of her passing is mixing it up with various life events. A child is getting married, another child is due to have a baby and a bunch of Scorpio grandchildren are having birthdays. It's November and every day edges closer to Thanksgiving. I love Thanksgiving, but its always been a mixed bag of love/hate feelings growing up. I wanted a big huge Thanksgiving meal like you see in movies. Does it look like that woman up there in the pale blue with the little hat and brooch at her neck liked to make a "big ugly turkey?" No.... she didn't though she often relented at the last minute and put up a small turkey breast (white meat of course) and mashed potatoes. She oddly loved to whip sweet potatoes up and put them back into an orange she emptied out with a little maraschino cherry. She was very into decorating, yet never seemed to get the hang of decorating a roasted turkey. She weighed about 98 pounds; perhaps she couldn't lift it?

It's a thing in Florida where the early natives learned to use oranges in everything from BBQ sauce to whipped sweet potatoes.  She liked cherries and back in the day before health food and Whole Foods catering to Vegans it was really hard to find small kosher marshmallows so now you know the rest of the story! My aunt made the best BBQ sauce with orange juice. I digress but it's that time of year. Mixing some thoughts and memories with discussion on the tropics. I bought a used cookbook from a synagogue in Tampa my family helped while doing some family genealogy research and yes the recipe for the orange cups with whipped sweet potatoes was in the cookbook, yet it wasn't easy to bring up on Google. Go figure. 

http://www.foodnetwork.com/recipes/mimis-sweet-potatoes-in-orange-cups-recipe-1941774

As for the tropics.

We are waving goodbye to Rina.

We are watching the cold fronts that will die out.

Convection in the Caribbean is there.

But the convection is being sheared.

An Upper Level Low is doing it's thing.

Instigating convection yet shearing it at the same time.

ULLs are able to multitask...

The flow is going both ways.

Lower level one way.

Upper level another way.

That time of year.

It's worth noting that without a name.

Tropical weather can bring misery still the same.

The convection in the Caribbean is a case in point.

Rob makes this point on Crown Weather.

crownweather.com

Not getting a name.

But PR is getting much rain.

That causes flooding.

Misery upon misery while they try and clean up.

Being in NC today I'm watching winter descending.

Like Zeus descending onto the stage.

Deus Ex Machina.

Things things you learn studying drama.

Definition of deus ex machina. 1 :a god introduced by means of a crane (see ¹crane 3a) in ancient Greek and Roman drama to decide the final outcome. 2 :a person or thing (as in fiction or drama) that appears or is introduced suddenly and unexpectedly and provides a contrived solution to an apparently insoluble ...

Winter weather sites are now up on Spaghetti Models.

http://spaghettimodels.com

The snow line is moving down.

Still "up north" but moving down.

So is the frost and freeze line.

I really need to find my boots.

For warmth not fashion!

Perhaps you can blame this rambling post on the fumes from the heater we finally turned on more to test it out than because I couldn't bundle up. It's going to be in the upper 20s later this week so I figured we better turn on the heater and get that "smell" out while we can still open the windows. Growing up in Miami we used the "heater" a few days a year and that was because my mother had a deadly fear of the big oil heater in our house that had jalousie windows. The cold air leaked in.... yet she preferred her heated blanket or a floor heater to turning on that "big old ugly thing" which means the oil heater was up there on her list next to the Thanksgiving Turkey. And, it was around Thanksgiving that people in Miami would relent and turn on their heaters as cold fronts finally made it all the way down to South Florida. And after Thanksgiving came the end of the Hurricane Season. You thought this rant on childhood memories had no real purpose here didn't you? If that's the case you must not be a Southerner who would know it's worth hanging on to a long rant to hear the whole story.  Blame it on the heater that is thankfully taking off the damp cold chill nicely and doesn't smell that terrible. It actually smells like winter is almost here. When I get back from Florida the leaves will have fallen off the red maple tree behind the house and the heater will be on more than the Air Conditioner. Miami people like to keep our air at around 72 degrees inside at all times!

Watching the Caribbean ....

...not holding my breath.

But watching it.

Rina is traveling a road often traveled by Tropical Storms that get ignored. Quietly, out there moving through the Atlantic taking the road everyone wishes Maria had taken and yet is Rina really a fish storm? The answer is both yes and no. Officially the NHC will pull the plug before she arrives in the British Isles in a few days.  She's not getting the glory, but she's still there all the same.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xful05YmW9U She's not the hero, she's not getting the glory. Why? Because many of you are looking for snow... and winter weather. Well, if you live in the Northern part of Hurricane Country where you get both hurricane threats and snow fall. Down in Florida people just pretend it's cold enough to wear boots with short skirts that somehow make the skirts even look shorter. There's a reason girls wear boots in Florida and it's not to stay warm! Today if I put on boots it will be because I'm freezing and it feels more like winter than fall, yet we have a month to go before winter really arrives.

Stay tuned,

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Invest 95L Forms in Atlantic Headed For Caribbean & Central America for Tropical Sunday Brunch

Discussion worth reading from NHC

And now let's look at Invest 95L below:

Ever watched Chopped? You know the look on their faces when they open their baskets up and see the four ingredients and there's emu eggs, matzoh, craw fish and a dragon fruit and they just stare at it a while thinking "what the hell? Obviously someone's making their own version of not kosher fishy Mazto Brei with Dragon Fruit Sauce. Matzo Brei is sort of like French Toast but not really but hey if you pour honey or Maple Syrup over anything it's usually worth eating.  And that leads us back to Invest 95L.  What is it? The NRL site is up and running with it and there's even a floater. There is mild model support and an iffy window for development. 

This is 95L on the NRL

Below is Hurricane Fernanda

Yeah... got a long way to go honey ...

I'm trying reverse psychology here so be warned..

So what's up with this Invest?

It's like having all the ingredients with no recipe.

Sort of winging it and hoping the hash comes out right.

Helps to thrown in honey or rum usually...

Molasses if you live in the Carolinas!

It has weak model support.

Water warm enough.

Low shear where it is currently.

It can't go too high or gets in trouble.

Staying low it has low spin potential.

Kind of like Johnny Cash walking the line.

Too close to the equator and it can't find it's mojo.

Too far North it has shear and dust.

We've seen this tango already this year.

It's name was Bret.

It's an easier sell than TD4 models.

BAMN SLAMS INTO CENTRAL AMERICA!

Plausible.

For those geographically challenged here's the map below:

For now intensity wise let's talk on a Tropical Storm

If this doesn't develop it can go into the EPAC..

..and get way better model support.

The EPAC has been hot. 

The Atlantic has not.

Can 95L be a break out ?

Time will tell...

If there was a group for tropical weather groupies I'd be in it. It's an odd addiction and trust me I have many. It's hard not to loop it and look and well that's how it goes. I can simply put up a track map and say "keep watching" and have a nice Sunday.

Can I get a Hallelujah? Can I get an Amen? ... I find my soul revival listening to Maren Morris and looping. For now all we can do is see where this goes.......when this wonderful world gets heavy and I need to find my escape... I just keep the loops looping and listening to music til my sins wash away. ;) And It's an addiction I'm not planning on giving up any time soon... 

Miss Chavis puts it simply and well below:

As for me I'm gonna make some Matzo Brei I think..

.. we have a lot of Matzo left................

Or maybe not.

I'm just playing it by ear today.. 

..wishing I was anywhere but here.

Don't say I didn't warn ya when the real hurricanes show up.

Besos BobbiStorm

@BobbiStorm on Twitter

Matzo Brei Recipe ;)

http://www.bonappetit.com/recipe/matzo-brei

Mardi Gras. Seattle Thundersnow, New Madrid Fault Severe Weather. Will March Turn Stormy Fast? Recipes for Weather and Drinks

Today is Mardi Gras and as I grew up in Miami when it was more Southern and the demographic mix in my neighborhood made Mardi Gras a big seasonal holiday for a city without seasons. So going to start off here by saying everyone should have a happy day and enjoy the weather if you got it as it may get a bit stormy again very soon. My Grandma spent some time in New Orleans when she was younger, the Garden District actually, and she had a healthy fear of voodoo queens and severe weather. She didn't like thunderstorms having grown up in Tampa they were used to thunder hitting so close that once it came into the house. I've heard it said when she was small she would hide under the bed during a good thunderstorm!

Of course Grandma Mary never saw Thundersnow that I know of...

Yesterday Seattle had Thundersnow, hail and then snow. They sort of won the wintertime trifecta and they can go quite a time between seeing snow or hail. Rain yes, but snow not so much and Thundersnow... well... you know that's Jim Cantore Land. Shame he didn't get to cover that storm. Love the way the guy responds "it's a convergence zone" when asked what's going on in the Seattle video. Watch the video ....

Is there such a thing has Thunderhail?

Shorter video with the "Thundersnow" at the end.

Those storms are moving East.

Winter has turned into Severe Weather Season....

Snow and Ice dip down like colorful Mardi Gras beads.

Warm air from the Gulf of Mexico moves North

Note the warmth of the Caribbean...

Pulls NW through the Yucatan.

Into the GOM and catches a ride North...

That translates to the image below

Snow way up North.

Rain moving up the Mississippi River Valley

Then that whole mess moves East.

Next 5 days.

Images available on www.spaghettimodels.com

But today we have this mess in the middle section of the country.

Doesn't it look like it highlights the New Madrid Fault?

Just a messy meteorology, geology mind.

A real recipe for severe weather.

A friend of mine Rob does great weather on his site.

Followed him for years, mostly for hurricane reasons.

But Rob really is a man for all seasons.

http://crownweather.com/

See the map below.

Note March will come in as a Severe Weather LION

Carolinas due to get weather Wednesday night....

So party today as it's Fat Tuesday.

Enjoy something delicious.

Ice Cream, Frozen Drinks.

King cake...

Oh I want a praline....

If you are off the wagon try this....

Personally I may pour bourbon over mine...

So hang in there March may be filled with weather.

And after severe weather season is hurricane season.

Eric knows...

Eric is watching.

So am i  ;)

LOL (I'm laughing)

Have a happy, Fat Tuesday ....

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter... add me please

My Grandma loved that song....

No that's not my Grandma but she could play like that ;)

She once played for the Governor of Florida.

Doubt she played Bill Bailey that time..

If you want to feel like you are there...

...take a virtual trip online.

http://www.nola.com/