Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Historic Flooding from IMELDA In Some Areas More than 30 inches... 43 Inches in Some Areas. 1 Death So Far. Jerry Going to Bermuda? Maybe. Copy Cat Following Humberto.


Still raining after all this time.
And the rain...the weather didn't move deep inland.
It's spreading into Louisiana.
The TX/LA border of the Sabine River.
Nice little towns. Bayous. Swamps.
I-10 is still closed.
Many roads are impassable.
Flooding worst than Allison...
... a real mini Harvey going on.




The scope of this disaster is heard to comprehend.
The airport is technically open....
...but the roads to get there are under water.





Governor of Louisiana thanking the Cajun Navy.



I went out to take care of some things.
Came home and put on TWC.
Still raining, flooding.
Rescues going on of all kind.



Kind of says it all as I was taught that how people treat their animals says a lot about them. 

 And we have had a death during this horrible storm when a young man was hit by lightning.

He was out in his boat trying to help stranded people.
So sad. Very sad.

People were begging for help.
Looking for ways to help.

Twitter account for the Cajun Navy.
If you know anyone who needs help...
...or you want to help.


I was going to write about models.
I looped a lot models.
Nothing new to tell really.
I have a headache and the models make it worse.
I had the sound down on the TV while writing.
And had to turn the sound up to figure this one out.


They are begging people to say off the roads.



And this is the point here.
I knew something like this would happen.
And the system was easily identifiable on loops.
And there should have been....
...could have been more warning to people.

Slow moving rains causing slow motion tragedy.
I'm not interested in the "center" the NHC tracked inland.
And I'm not interested in them telling people to look elsewhere.

Image of the cute map from the site they are sending ppl to...
...see previous blog. I love maps but that doesn't cut it.
Show images of flooding, do videos.
Draw maps like Cranky does.
This is tropical.
Earlier warning could have helped some people...
...prepare or move to higher ground.
Then reporting a TS formed and made landfall.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/qa/201207_rick_knabb.php



I'll stand by that tweet.
I've met him.
He's a sweet man, smart, kind.
Concerned and knowledgeable.
Doing a good job at the TWC.


So you want to know about Jerry?
Models in agreement.




Water Vapor below.




My husband used to ski often.
And I don't mean water ski.
He grew up in upstate NY.
He took his skis to school in the winter.
The way Miami kids skateboard.
He said skiers have this problem...
...sometimes with tracks from skiers that went before.
I'll defer to him as I've never skied in my life.
But it's logical.

Here's the MIMIC loop.


It's obvious until this pattern changes.
The storm tracks are set in stone.
For a while not the whole rest of the season.
Fluid Dynamics 

But at some point the Carib and GOM get hot.
Sorry but that's Climo.

One model I'll share ..
...shows a closed low in the Gulf of Mexico.
At some point the pattern changes.
African Wave Season ends.
And GOM and Carib begins.
And they get pulled North.


In the same way Humberto followed Dorian..


And Jerry follows Humberto.
Because lows go to lows.
and they try to stay way from high pressure.

I'll do models tomorrow.
Today everything is about Imelda.
May not have been officially a TS...
...except for an hour or half or so.
But it should have.. could have..
..been an Invest earlier.
More attention should have been given to it.
The tropics is more than just African Waves.
(yes i said that...)
And hope next time people are not blind sided.
So today is about Imelda.
And the families impacted and struggling.
Who will have to rebuild or move once again.
Just as they were putting Harvey in the rear view mirror.
So give charity or time to help if you can.
And trust me Florida is not safe for the season.
As they are most prone to be hit from the S or SW
Coming up over Cuba or from the Yucatan.
Think Wilma...
Later in October.

Listen I do this to help.
Hoping to help someone who feels confused.
I'm not doing this for students getting Masters Degrees ..
... or others who understand technical language.
But for those who need to know.
If I can help good.
I'm not charging money...
I'm not selling tee shirts..
(tho if I did I'd offer V Necks...)
And if I can help. Good.
Been doing this blog since 2004 or 6
(who remembers

So thanks and keep getting that word out.
Perhaps had this been an Invest earlier.
Perhaps people might have had time to prepare.
To evacuate. To move valuables up to a safe spot.

Much respect for the Cajun Navy.
For volunteers. For Red Cross.
For TWC nonstop covering the story.



Again the NHC is tracking the center up into N Texas.
The associate weather is ongoing near TX/LA border.
This is not just about Texas...
...but now the weather moving into Louisiana.
It's all about the weather...


Besos BobbiStorm
@BobbiStorm Twitter and Instagram
Updating in real time.
Watching more weather history unfold.

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 2:44 PM 0 comments

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Updated 2PM. Area off the E Coast Needs to be Watched. May "Interact" with a Cold Front if the Cold Front Actually Shows Up. Stay tuned. Crayola Thoughts and Jelly Bean Creations.

2 PM Update.

NHC pulls the plus on GOM area.
Rain continues.
Rain will continue.
Doesn't need a name to rain.


Compare and contrast from earlier.


GOM area becomes the NWS problem.


Please continue reading.
The thoughts expressed this morning....
....do not change.

I'll add one thing.

If a cold front comes down strong enough to change the general daytime weather significantly before July 21st I'll be thrilled. I'm just doubtful and not very trusting of Early July Cold fronts after a few weeks or "feels like" temperatures being in the low 100s. I'm not very trusting of models, they have not been stellar lately. Hope springs eternal though .... though it's usually wiped away like sweat on the brow in Mid July.


Nice front.
Then it's gone.
Stationary.



Loop the loop for yourself below.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

***


This official image of the morning was released by the NHC at 8 AM and will be updated at 2 PM. It doesn't really tell the story. The "Yellow X" basically over New Orleans today after they moved it West after placing it near St. Marks Florida yesterday. The concern was always for flooding in bayou regions that have been built over and developed into suburbia. Note to TWC the French Quarter does not flood (not even in Hurricane Katrina) because after trial and error the early settlers realized "hey this area doesn't flood" and they built THERE. Sadly generations down the road we are not that smart or we think we can just build better drains. How's that working out? Most days of the year it works just fine until you get a pissant small, swirl on the radar that looks like a microcane moving along the highway; it also sucks in a real hurricane like Katrina. Remember French Quarter = High Ground. Rest of the area is low land, the bottom of the bowl and as you move West you hit one bayou after another all the way into Texas until you finally hit the Buffalo Bayou that floods badly when it rains much. 

The fact that TWC keeps showing the French Quarter Cam (advertiser revenue?) is beyond me as it's high and dry and no one is up at that hour in the morning except city workers. There is a real flooding problem going on as vehicular arteries flood fast when copious amounts of rain move in after minor No Name Yellow Swirls with Zero Percentages of Developing pound the area in the morning during Drive Time. Find a better cam or maybe go to a reporter in the area covering the weather. 

If you want news fast go to Twitter. Many of you are on Twitter. Many of you are waiting for the Ye Olde AOL Message Boards to come back. I know it was fun while we had it. Most everyone has found their way to Twitter, unless they are posting pictures on Instagram or SnapChat. Twitter tells the story in real time way better than EDTV ever imagined. Personally I like Twitter better than Survivor. Real news from real people. Headlines and official press releases are great but nothing like really seeing where the problem is vs where the weather is not on a Weather Cam that leads people to Bourbon Street to spend their money while in New Orleans. It also looks like the Weather Cam by Sloppy Joes in Key West but I digress.



People go to Mike for Real News.
Breaking News.
Telling it like it is News.


Close up map of a beautiful city.
It is prone to flooding.
I love New Orleans.



 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drainage_in_New_Orleans

Nuff said on that in particular but despite the zero percent chances and I was annoyed many mets played down the possibility of flooding from this very small system - - - it's worth noting there is flooding as I said there would be. And, satellite imagery shows it won't end soon as it's pulling up much tropical moisture and training it along very specific lines.  Note the picture below that shows the concentration of orange to the South and Southwest of our Yellow Swirl that in the loop below you can see is being sucked into the general area. Water rescues are happening in a few places.


latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

I guess it should have been a yellow-orange swirl.
Maybe they should expand the color guides.
Or like make up.
Matte, frosted and metallic.
Yellow X is such an underwhelming name.


Moving on to purple.
We definitely need more diversity from the NHC.


There are purple splotches popping up everywhere.
Apparently they don't read press releases.
Tropical possibilities.
Many close in.


Check out that Blue-Purple color combo in the Atlantic.
It has a very short window of opportunity.
No name but still purple fame.

Seriously press releases are good and academic reports are great, but what develops in real time from both minor tropical disturbances and major hurricanes going through rapid intensification over warm water close in is the real story. People love to pass #clickbait around during slow times when there is nothing happening. What will the 2018 Hurricane Season be like? We will be able to know for sure when it's over and people are complaining about how bad the Winter of 2018 is in December. Let's hope Macy's stays alive because personally I'm beginning to worry on the Macy's Day Thanksgiving Parade. Would Apple or Amazon take over sponsorship and would anyone care? 

Bottom Line.
Tropics Tuesday.


hicbsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

All our current players in one spot.
New Orleans Flooding.
Upper Level Low E of Florida
Further East is our new yellow X
Bright yellow orange convection 20% in 5 Days



Keeping this simple.

1. The tropical disturbance now over New Orleans dumping huge amounts of rain. It's moving West and will take it's localized flood potential with it so keep watching and pay attention to breaking news and your Weather App do not wait for Momma to send you a message on WhatsApp that you are ignoring while on Snapchat.


2. The beautiful big Upper Level Low that looks like a Black Hurricane in reverse color mode is moving West with the flow. Strong high in place. We might need to watch it once it's in the Gulf of Mexico. Time will tell. The Dirty side of the ULL (every ULL has one) will keep the temperatures down in Florida where rain will be the main game.



3. The area behind the ULL with the bright yellow and orange color with bits of red thrown in is the area the NHC put up this morning at 8 AM that looks like a big Lemon Meringue Jelly Bean. I do not make things up. Note picture below. Read the discussion from the NHC first posted above. Note the word "interaction" is such a vague word. It leaves the door open for possibilities covered under the term "interaction" in my opinion. #could #unlikely #interaction = very vague terminology.


The shape of the "formation zone" is because it is generally forecast to stay off shore (get ready for it) because the cold front is going to pick it up and sweep it away. Personally I would LOVE a cold front that sweeps this heat wave out to sea but I have it on good authority that it's not happening any time soon and if it does it's a one day event before the front comes back. If that is so then it would tug at anything actually there and move it away a bit and then retrograde back a bit towards the coast. This is highly suggestive discussion above on long range development but I am thinking of going to Myrtle Beach sometime next week to cool off a bit :) and watch the waves .... play at Broadway on the Beach (or is it Boardwalk on the Beach?) and drink cool drinks at Margaritaville because according to the Grinch Who Stole the Hurricane Season AKA Phil Klotzbach we will have a mediocre season but as he reminds everyone it only takes one hurricane even in a quiet season to produce misery (I'm paraphrasing what he wrote ... check out the link below and read it for yourself) so....  If I was to read the hysteria online about the Hurricane Season I'd figure the only hurricane I'll see anytime soon in the Atlantic Basin is in a pretty tall glass.


Extra Credit Discussion.

Go back up there and look at the loop in motion. Note the blue and green arrows I drew show the differing wind flow. It's interesting. Keep watching.

BobbiStorm's Bottom Line:
Don't buy the current scenario that this will go out to sea if it develops. It could go out to sea but there is no lock there on the cold front scenario or any fast end to the this hot summer in the Carolinas. 


Much love...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5

Ps... If you are interested in buying someone a nice present for Christmas (around the time that the weak El Nino may be affecting our Winter) you might want to buy a child a box of Crayola Crayons. Stimulate the economy. Seems you can also use them to make awesome pictures of yellow orange sunsets or leaping lava in Hawaii! If you are interested in recipes with Jelly Bellies if you are really tropically bored here's a link for that.



http://kelseysscraps.blogspot.com/2013/09/crayon-melt-3-yelloworange.html

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:14 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Updated 10 PM! Models Invest 91L Forms. Tropics Still 20% - Thoughts on Tropical Development, Advertising and How Wendy's Became Prom Queen

Just adding in here some models. 
Each new model run shows a new layer.
In reality this is most likely a BOC player.


www.spaghettimodels.com
Grid above on the home page from Spaghetti Models.

Up close view of the new Yellow Circle.


Newest graphics from NHC show the small yellow circle in the BOC and that's perfectly in line with CLIMO and June systems. Again a disorganized system means that IF a center develops the center will be tracked but the weather may be far from the center. So even if this system gets a name and flirts with Tex Mex or some city along the Texas coast the rain may be a wide shield of tropical moisture. And, it's possible some odd things will happen between here and there. Stay tuned.  





Invest 91L has formed.
NHC now runs models officially.
1st model run below.


Eventually it goes left.
Even the track towards Florida turns back.
Well as far as the first run goes... 


Basically nothing has changed today.
10% in the 2 day.
20% in the 5 day.

Really nothing new to say.
Did want to show the wide view.


Convection has been consistent with 91L
Also note Westbound tropical wave.
The tropical wave is low....
...but despite SAL and cool water.
The wave made it across the Atlantic.

Why worry on 91L ?
Even if it struggles to be a Tropical Storm?
Tropical Storms have a history of sometimes stalling.
Tropical Storm Allison is one such storms.
This is NOT Allison.
But it's worth remembering.

http://blogs.app.com/enviroguy/2014/06/17/tropical-storm-allison-soaked-nj-13-years-ago/


Good blog above.
Formed close in...
...sat and dumped rain.
Flooding happened.
Then moisture continued to cause mischief.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Allison

Also you will hear people online talking.
They talk of MJO and Kelvin Waves.
Where such waves go tropical trouble follows.
One in the Epac is responsible for Aletta and Bud
Or more so for their intensity.


As the wave moves East...
tropical development is favored.
Or let's say a factor in enhanced tropical development.

Now let's look at Invest 91L

2 Satellites are needed to show this area.


There is a blob of convection in the Caribbean.
A flow of moisture moving N towards Cuba and Florida.
Really just enhancing the set up for rain this time of year.


GOM satellite shows shear to the West in the BOC.
An ULL and a cold front on the move are players.
Note further up in the GOM is the ULL

GOES16-GM-08-1000x1000.gif (1000×1000)

And purple splotches along the coastline.
Close to land.
BOC and Carib.


It's common for multiple centers to set up shop a bit.
Think of them like "pop up shops"
When the set up is murky like this...
Shear and marginal water temperatures.
Not ready for brick and mortar store.
Just a cute "Pop Up Shop"



If you wait it's too late.
The POPUP shop is gone.


https://www.click2houston.com/news/topshop-to-host-kylie-jenners-kylie-cosmetic-pop-up-in-houstons-galleria


An example being a while back I went with my daughter to Aventura Mall and my daughter showed me the new wing of the mall with the new TOPSHOP in it and she was looking at the make up. I bought her some Kylie Jenner Lipsticks from the store. When I went back to the store the Make up display was gone because... it was a POP UP store. You can see in the middle on display in the picture below. Later another POP UP store appeared elsewhere in the store for another product. It's a fast paced world these days you got to be ready for something to pop up anywhere be it eyeliners or tropical development. Often areas such as this develop multiple centers that pop up and disappear just as fast. 


Dabuh discusses that online today.



And that is the problem with Invest 91L . . . a center can POP UP anywhere in that yellow grid and it's possible that multiple areas of interest could evolve out of this broad, large, messy area of consistent convection. Something could develop far from what seems to be the burst of convection the NHC is hinting at that would develop. It could be nothing happens until the convection pushed West by the strong High to the East oozes into the BOC and then as it scurries towards the coast the NHC pin points a center, issues a TD or TS watch in an abundance of caution and then we get a designated system. Eventually one center wins out. Don't believe any one model run until a true center has formed. The truth is the real issue here is the WEATHER and steering currents that are not strong and could allow rains to sit over Texas maintaining long term rainfall and some localized flooding. We have seen this set up before. It's common for this time of year. It's a very common but complicated set up. Note well drawn illustrations by Cranky shown below.



Also note moisture from BUD will spread into US.
Enhancing weather in the SW.
Can that have a hand here as well?
Something to think on.
Check back later to see if the odds have changed.

One thing I do want to say is it's depressing watching TWC these days as their advertisers are obviously targeting the aging Baby Boom population that still pays for Cable TV. I get that you really need.... I suppose to preach to the choir but I'm tired of hearing how no one can sleep and they need a way better pillow or medication to help them get a good night's sleep. They are sort of shooting themselves in the foot by looking at the short term game here. IF people can really sleep with that pillow and the meds then their audience will be snoring during their nonstop barrage of how to survive in the jungle and what it's like to chase a killer tornado. Seems like they should pay younger advertisers to be involved in their broadcast of weather to a new generation who might watch them on HULU and ROKU. They need to find out who is in charge or Wendy's and Burger King (now going with the handle Pancake King) who stole the thunder from IHOP/IHOB yesterday with their tongue in cheek flirtation that stole the show on Twitter. I said stole twice and that was on purpose. If you are going to sell your message than get it right and don't make a new logo that looks like a box of tampons. Perhaps IHOP needs to get way better coffee or smell the roses cause it seems they will not have a date to the prom this year. Really no women were involved in this decision as any woman would know their new logo looks like a box of tampons...


Best read all day:
https://www.thecut.com/2018/06/ihop-ob-tampons-logo.html

And Wendy's Sassy Tweets were the best.
Pancake King not bad... funny.





So lastly taking this back to tropical weather as how you tell the story is important. Too much hype online, too much jumping the gate at times with advertised graphics and too much concern on if cool water near Africa will lessen the total number of ACE this year when in fact it's storms that spin up or develop close in that are bigger concerns than FISH storms that form fast by Africa and curve out to sea.  As for the Caribbean and the BOC it's time for a sacrificial weak TD to be sacrificed to the old Mayan powers that be by tossing a storm up towards the Tex Mex area hopefully away from Houston but I can't make any promises.  The only thing I can promise you is adding @burgerking and @wendy's to your Twitter feed will brighten your day. Cranky's great discussion always makes my morning and Mike at www.spaghettimodels.com keeps me surfing along fast while out shopping at the old Brick and Mortar store (hey I am a Baby Boomer even if Facebook says I grew up in the 80s) :)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbitsorm on Twitter



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posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:09 AM 0 comments