Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Historic Flooding from IMELDA In Some Areas More than 30 inches... 43 Inches in Some Areas. 1 Death So Far. Jerry Going to Bermuda? Maybe. Copy Cat Following Humberto.


Still raining after all this time.
And the rain...the weather didn't move deep inland.
It's spreading into Louisiana.
The TX/LA border of the Sabine River.
Nice little towns. Bayous. Swamps.
I-10 is still closed.
Many roads are impassable.
Flooding worst than Allison...
... a real mini Harvey going on.




The scope of this disaster is heard to comprehend.
The airport is technically open....
...but the roads to get there are under water.





Governor of Louisiana thanking the Cajun Navy.



I went out to take care of some things.
Came home and put on TWC.
Still raining, flooding.
Rescues going on of all kind.



Kind of says it all as I was taught that how people treat their animals says a lot about them. 

 And we have had a death during this horrible storm when a young man was hit by lightning.

He was out in his boat trying to help stranded people.
So sad. Very sad.

People were begging for help.
Looking for ways to help.

Twitter account for the Cajun Navy.
If you know anyone who needs help...
...or you want to help.


I was going to write about models.
I looped a lot models.
Nothing new to tell really.
I have a headache and the models make it worse.
I had the sound down on the TV while writing.
And had to turn the sound up to figure this one out.


They are begging people to say off the roads.



And this is the point here.
I knew something like this would happen.
And the system was easily identifiable on loops.
And there should have been....
...could have been more warning to people.

Slow moving rains causing slow motion tragedy.
I'm not interested in the "center" the NHC tracked inland.
And I'm not interested in them telling people to look elsewhere.

Image of the cute map from the site they are sending ppl to...
...see previous blog. I love maps but that doesn't cut it.
Show images of flooding, do videos.
Draw maps like Cranky does.
This is tropical.
Earlier warning could have helped some people...
...prepare or move to higher ground.
Then reporting a TS formed and made landfall.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/qa/201207_rick_knabb.php



I'll stand by that tweet.
I've met him.
He's a sweet man, smart, kind.
Concerned and knowledgeable.
Doing a good job at the TWC.


So you want to know about Jerry?
Models in agreement.




Water Vapor below.




My husband used to ski often.
And I don't mean water ski.
He grew up in upstate NY.
He took his skis to school in the winter.
The way Miami kids skateboard.
He said skiers have this problem...
...sometimes with tracks from skiers that went before.
I'll defer to him as I've never skied in my life.
But it's logical.

Here's the MIMIC loop.


It's obvious until this pattern changes.
The storm tracks are set in stone.
For a while not the whole rest of the season.
Fluid Dynamics 

But at some point the Carib and GOM get hot.
Sorry but that's Climo.

One model I'll share ..
...shows a closed low in the Gulf of Mexico.
At some point the pattern changes.
African Wave Season ends.
And GOM and Carib begins.
And they get pulled North.


In the same way Humberto followed Dorian..


And Jerry follows Humberto.
Because lows go to lows.
and they try to stay way from high pressure.

I'll do models tomorrow.
Today everything is about Imelda.
May not have been officially a TS...
...except for an hour or half or so.
But it should have.. could have..
..been an Invest earlier.
More attention should have been given to it.
The tropics is more than just African Waves.
(yes i said that...)
And hope next time people are not blind sided.
So today is about Imelda.
And the families impacted and struggling.
Who will have to rebuild or move once again.
Just as they were putting Harvey in the rear view mirror.
So give charity or time to help if you can.
And trust me Florida is not safe for the season.
As they are most prone to be hit from the S or SW
Coming up over Cuba or from the Yucatan.
Think Wilma...
Later in October.

Listen I do this to help.
Hoping to help someone who feels confused.
I'm not doing this for students getting Masters Degrees ..
... or others who understand technical language.
But for those who need to know.
If I can help good.
I'm not charging money...
I'm not selling tee shirts..
(tho if I did I'd offer V Necks...)
And if I can help. Good.
Been doing this blog since 2004 or 6
(who remembers

So thanks and keep getting that word out.
Perhaps had this been an Invest earlier.
Perhaps people might have had time to prepare.
To evacuate. To move valuables up to a safe spot.

Much respect for the Cajun Navy.
For volunteers. For Red Cross.
For TWC nonstop covering the story.



Again the NHC is tracking the center up into N Texas.
The associate weather is ongoing near TX/LA border.
This is not just about Texas...
...but now the weather moving into Louisiana.
It's all about the weather...


Besos BobbiStorm
@BobbiStorm Twitter and Instagram
Updating in real time.
Watching more weather history unfold.

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 2:44 PM 0 comments

Friday, September 28, 2018

UPDATED! Tropics .... Kirk Exits Stage Left, Subtropical Leslie Got Her Name Back. Rosa Off Broadway Coming to a Desert in the SW USA Soon. Where Does Her Moisture Go? Tsunami in Indonesia, Hurricane in Mediterranean? Earthquake in Caribbean on Island Dealing With Kirk.



The long awaited for Subtropical Storm Leslie is back.
Officially.

Updating the blog for the upgraded status of  Subtropical Storm Leslie at 5 PM. You can see how it began to really fill in and convection wrap around the center in images I posted on Twitter while talking to friends about her and her potential drama. You can read the discussion on the logic of the NHC but the image below tells the tale.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/282047.shtml


Convection totally wrapped around the center.

Currently Bermuda might watch Leslie carefully.



We will talk on Leslie more down the road.
I think it's very possible she becomes a hurricane...
...later after transitioning to a tropical system.

As for Kirk....
...he's on borrowed time.


Some interesting news from the Caribbean.
The same island dealing with Kirk...
...just had a fairly strong earthquake.



As Jim reminded me.
He has a link on webpage with news from affected islands.


Duly noted and sharing that information.
I was on the phone with one of my kids.
I do have a life besides weather you know....
Another interesting story comes from the Mediterranean.


Crazy surf.
Look how neatly that fits in the Mediterranean.


How impressive is that?

Further away but just as interesting.
There was a Tsunami in Indonesia...
.... after a strong Earthquake.
Mike posted this on his webpage.


Video found online. 


Been passed around on Twitter all day.

Seems there's a lot going on.
Tropics are active geologically and meteorologically. 

Stay tuned....
Should get more interesting over the next week.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

* * *


Tropical Games.
Late September of 2018.

Cooler water temperatures initially.
Strong, long lived Saharan Dust.
MDR shut down for huge Canes.


So what happens?
Mother Nature turns things around.
Shakes things up.
Plays by her rules.
Tropical energy goes elsewhere.
Tropical energy finds a way.


Watch that loop.
What was Leslie and will be again...
...is encapsulated by SAL.
Florence was as well.
And yet Florence found a way.
She took the far North path ....
...she went where few have ever gone.

If you loop that loop.
You will see the way shear...
..cleared out the Caribbean.
SAL not getting in there.
Neither have been hurricanes.

But they may form somewhere there soon.
The long term models show lowered pressures.
The pattern as we move into October hints at it.

Good Tweet from a good friend.


It's not locked in.
But most likely something will develop.
October and November...
Are about the Caribbean and GOM.

Often storms that fall apart....
...come back to life or more so..
Their moisture goes elsewhere.
Weather is about flow.

Look at the flow between Kirk & X Leslie.
You wonder where Leslie is getting that moisture?
In a sea of SAL?


Look at that long leash.
And Leslie is whipping the leash.
Slowly a center is filling in.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=120hrs&anim=anigf


Long tentacles of moisture being sucked up...
Into the huge vortex that was Leslie.
That is being tracked by the ....
High Seas Forecasts.


Please refer to the NWS.
The new methodology of the NHC...
...is an extension of the NWS it seems.
That's my thought.
The culture there seems to have changed.
More people from the NWS move into place.
It's their way of doing things.
It's their call.

Jokingly I told a friend...
..they won't name Leslie...
..until they kill off Kirk :)

We joke a lot in meteorology.
We compare things to football....
...or movies or science fiction shows.

So where do we stand now regarding Kirk?


Still there moving WNW now.
Movement has been erratic for last day or so.
Generally West into the Caribbean.


Cone shown below.


Models show:


Truth is Kirk will battle shear as he tries to move Westward. He will fall apart, his movement will slow down and his convection will be displaced. The problem with Kirk really is that his convection is constantly being displaced and that convection will cause flooding over a longer period of time for some of the islands. A fast moving, small well wrapped storm would have whipped it's moisture with it deep into the Caribbean... but that is not happening. So there has been some minor flooding that could become worse in the Islands. That IS Kirk. That IS WEATHER and that is what this is all about. It's not all about finding the one wave that will become a Killer Category 5 Storm remembered for all time, though that does happen, it's about weather and in this case tropical weather. So all jokes aside and I do love the jokes... Kirk is causing trouble in the Caribbean Islands now. XLeslie is slowly building back to being Leslie and another cyclone in the EPAC named Rosa will move up towards Mexico and her moisture will move deep into the desert SE causing more flooding and then her moisture will mingle with westbound frontal systems and that is what weather is all about. You can Google it or look it up on Twitter but it's not being shown much on the news today. Remember the Islands have elevation so water runs downhill there often so you have flooding and more flooding and it's not as bad as North and South Carolina from Florence but much troubling weather from a minimal tropical storm.



We will possibly revisit Kirk down the road.
Or the moisture remaining from X Kirk.

Now let's talk about Rosa.
Nice name.. I know.

Rosa becomes part of USA weather.
Weather flows always.


He makes great maps.
Models shown below.
PLEASE... be aware of the FLOODING threat.
Please know campers in the desert southwest...
May deal with strong, flash floods.
Tropical rain in the desert is never a good thing.
But rain falling over farmland is...
It's all about timing and location.
Rain is a blessing...
...it can be a curse too.



Cranky has maps he makes.
I write. I write and describe.

I'll show this map and remind you.
It's not over til the end of October.
The ap below shows where systems may form.
Atlantic has candy stripes.
North Atlantic has dark red.
Then our eyes turn to SW Carib....
..and the Yucatan area.


I'll talk more on this another time.
By Sunday Kirk should be gone....
... Leslie should get her  name back.

This is the time between Florence.........
...and the next big storm.
It's about Pumpkin Spice Lattes.
Football.
Politics.
Changing leaves, falling leaves.
Stalled cold fronts in the Carolinas.
Then stronger ones that push through.
And the Earth is always moving.
Earthquakes... 
Meteorologists love geology.
Geologists love meteorology.

My advice in this turbulent time in which we live.
Find some music you love ....
..and enjoy it alone or with someone you love.
Whatever rocks your boat.

I love weather and I love my friends.
I love my family.
I love.


I love the water vapor loop :)
I love the way everything flows.... 

My taste in music evolves.
Always evolve.
Always find your flow...
..and go with it.

(love love love this song)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter..

Ps... special thanks ... 










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posted by BobbiStorm @ 9:18 AM 0 comments

Monday, October 02, 2017

Updated NHC Reintroduces 2 Yellow Circles... 1 BIG one (Yucatan) 1 small little one... Tropical Shrinks Needed... Florida Watching For Development in a Week or So NW Caribbean... Vegas Is on our Minds.. In Our Hearts.. American Tragedy... Easier to Prepare for Hurricanes Than Senseless Violence.

Seems size does matter . . .


0% chances.
NHC way of saying...
"yes we know the weather was bad"

Below we have the BIG circle.
Coming down the road.
20% in 5 days.
Really what they mean is...
50% in 7 days.


Perhaps it's time for the quiz below.

http://addictionz.com/codependency-quiz-20-questions/
http://www.codependencynomore.com/codependency-quiz-2/

Seriously I laughed so hard I started coughing :( and that's good as I needed a laugh today. 


So let's look at the tropics.
Big wave coming off Africa.
Another wave mid ocean.
Bright orange dot by small yellow circle.
Give it five days.
Check back tomorrow.

al_rCUMP_048.gif (600×710)
Compare and contrast this below..
...with what it looks like in 4 days from now.


We can only hope Tom Petty..
..comes back as easily







Last week we had 2 yellow circles in the tropics we were watching. One was closer to (over) Florida and I did say that the Jax area would have very strong onshore wind, waves and weather. I did say that if the models verified and weather over West Florida was bad that Mike would end up doing Facebook Live and my prediction on that did verify. So you know you can trust my weather and life predictions.


Great shot Mike gave us...
..before going out on his boat.


Crazy strong weather.
Didn't get a name.
But very strong weather just the same.

Also as I suggested...
The NHC took the circles down.
Neither were developing.
Models were crazy.


We are starting over with 1 yellow circle.
You have to hit on the 5 day page.
Or you get the 2 day page below.


Granted I'm not very happy nor am I cheerful watching the news out of Las Vegas so take this with a measure of "she's in a mood" but for a long time I have been saying this... These graphics are OUT DATED and STUPID. We live in a 3 dimensional world, in live time when my 7 year old grandson using an iPad could make better front page graphics for the NHC then they give us. It's just ridiculous and probably explains why people go to sites they know and trust to find the details vs not finding information they want because they didn't realize they had to click on the screen for the 5 day and really WHO CARES as long term models are available for anyone who wants to go online and watch a 10 day model so why do they care if it's a five day vs a two day? People either don't want to know until there is a warning going up or they want information on every wave passing through the Caribbean. Once, a long time ago in a world far away, people cared about a five day forecast. In today's world it is meaningless. Put up a map (a normal map) with a time line of when something might develop the same way any excellent weather person on Twitter can do so and it's easier to understand. Use a Note 8 or use iPhone graphic packages... just fix it.... it is confusing and no longer relevant in today's world.

Models are still fishing around for the best place to catch a fish but the fish will most likely be served in Florida somewhere and drive time on I-95 could become a problem for people in it's path a week or so out. Today is October 1st and we are still looking at the October 6th or 7th area to see what will really be. The Euro is on top and the GFS is on the bottom ... shown below. Somewhere weather sets up around Florida. A front is forecast to move down and if so the weather could merge (it's October) with that front. If it moves down...




Tropics today.


High pressure to the North.
West bound tropical waves.
Area near the Yucatan.



I use Mike's site often as I have been a big fan since forever. But I also use other sties and read all day and view graphics put up on Twitter and they are easier to understand and more timely. I got to many sites so listing some I find awesome. 

http://www.hurricanecity.com/ http://flhurricane.com/ are two of my go to sites and I do go to http://www.storm2k.org/ at times though I don't spend as much time there. Many love it and find it a rich resource and use their message boards. Many online do not like to use Twitter (why I don't know it's the easiest social media site and you get the most information and never have to Tweet) but to each his own. http://canetalk.com/ is hosted by Hurricane City. You can use Facebook to follow your most reliable, much loved weather person who gives you the information you need.  If you go on Twitter check out some of the people I follow as they are awesome. Caribbean loop below.


My thoughts.


Let's look closer.

tgsfc24.gif (768×496)

So we have a long frontal boundary.
Dipping down into the Caribbean.
Little black lines are waves.

Somewhere in this mix.
A tropical system may form.
Not necessarily a strong one.
But one strong enough for a name.

Models...
I prefer this site for models.

Also old school site:

Many models top left on Spaghetti Models.

Tampa Bay has a great site covering tropics. Use it... look through it.


I'll update this blog later today when the next model runs come out and as things evolve. For now I suggest all of us PRAY not just for Vegas but for all of America. We cannot always keep our loved ones safe and no matter how much we try it's an illusion. People have to go to work (commuting can be dangerous) go out to exercise... go to concerts and the movies and live. You can't hole up in the house 24/7 afraid to live life. It's a horrific tragedy; one where violence ruled the day and where  now hospitals all over Vegas are trying to heal the many bullet wounds in the people who are injured. The death toll will rise and it should be ignored. It was 50 when I started typing now it's 59 and it will continue to climb. The injured are way over 500 and usually rule of thumb for attacks such as this is 10% of those seriously injured die. Sucks. Pathetic. Depressing. I've spent time in Vegas, I know it... I have close friends there (two of my oldest best friends live there) and one has a daughter with an emergency appendix surgery that was scheduled for this morning and the hospital, every hospital, looks as if people were brought in from a War Zone.   

We live in wonderful times, but we also live in a time filled with tragedy of late. Try to to good.. try to do a mitzvah (good deed) today for someone to off set the balance of good and evil.. give charity (so many places to give) and pray for the families of the people who were killed and for those who are injured waiting to be treated and lastly Las Vegas has asked for blood... they need blood so if you live there or can give blood please do.


As for the tropics... we are on a hiatus while we change a bit and evolve into October. Oldest trick in the book is a system coming up from the NW Caribbean or GOM and the second oldest trick in the book is a Gale System quasi Tropical that develops in the Atlantic and the decaying cold fronts help to create both those scenarios and then add in westbound weak waves. 

More later... 

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Thanks for your patience today and really just pray... to a good deed and give charity.

One of my favorite country singers... Jason Aldean










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posted by BobbiStorm @ 9:27 AM 1 comments