A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, June 06, 2019
Tropics Quiet Today. Storms in the South, Tornado Warnings But Not TS Barry. Back From Vacation in Crown Heights. What is Crown Heights? Why You Should Visit NY in June...and WHAT IS AN INVEST REALLY?
Officially nothing is going on in the tropics today.
Invest 91L is no more.
Despite giving it way too much of a chance.
The NHC pulled the plug.
I'm putting that picture in motion below
You can see it's remnant moisture causing problems.
I want to draw your attention to this flare up below.
This area and further to the East will flare up often today.
It's the moisture that was associated with 91L...
...mixing it up with a frontal boundary.
This was and is the real concern.
Flooding.
Torrential rains.
Tornadoes.
Too much can be a disaster.
Not enough can destroy crops.
Kind of a lesson in life on finding a balance.
We can learn much from studying meteorology.
I'm back from vacation.
It was a hectic, crazy good trip.
Not a lot of down time but found some anyway.
You gotta grab those moments while you can.
More on that later ;)
I'm going to talk tropical first.
Personal later.
Feel free to just do the weather....
...or stick around for the rest of what's on the menu.
What is an INVEST?
Please read and remember.
Thank you!
What I really want to convey here about Invest 91L is that it actually did what most areas of tropical moisture do and that is they drift along with the lower level winds towards some coastline and because either one center could not win out over the competing centers or conditions were not favorable enough they do not develop and they end up as rain over the heartland or low lands of the Carolinas and Georgia or Louisiana. That really is the way of the world. Years ago they were called "tropical disturbances" meaning there was a disturbance in the force in the tropics ... to be plain and a bit silly but very honest. Then we went through a period of naming various areas or tropical waves as an Invest and numbering them and studying them to see if they did or didn't develop. This was not exactly a clandestine thing but it was known in meteorological circles. Somewhere along the line they went public with a flurry of fantastic graphics on TWC or your local TV news and online in the meteorological community. Social media amped up the expectations tremendously. The National Hurricane Center obviously saw it as a tool to remind people it's the Hurricane Season and tropical development could come from this little piggy or that little piggy and somewhere a poor girl seemingly destined to sweep her stepmother's home could turn into Cinderella. Seriously it's that basic and I want people to understand as the season progresses an INVEST has NO CENTER, no real CIRCULATION and winds not of any tropical designation. So what does an Invest have? Rain that has lingered or sometimes it's simply an area with very little rain but model support as models (computer programs) indicated that an area of low pressure could form over such and such a place and deserve the designation of Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm or Hurricane. The problem here is that since they give it a designation of Invest with a number it is raised to real status and it is not... it's like saying wood that could have been made to build Pinocchio was actually Pinocchio from day one when in fact it was most likely going to be used to build a bench but who knows a good carpenter might have built something bigger than a bench. Not to take away from benches that give us all a place to rest...
So yes I will talk on Invests and discuss their potential for Barry or Chantal but we may go through a whole bunch of them with no name given or the next one may form from a stalled out frontal boundary in the Gulf of Mexico that may develop a center as barometric pressure lowers and winds begin to pick up and circulate enough for the National Hurricane Center to designate it a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. It is very possible that could happen before the month of June ends. That is what we call foreshadowing as models are doing their thing again showing an area that may be ripe for development. And again it's a good time to look at the areas of development most frequently popular in June and that is.... the Gulf of Mexico and along the SE coast. The frenzy reminds me of that scene from Fantasy Island years ago.
Compare and contrast June with October.
While the Central American Gyre is a thing.
It more frequently produces storms later in the season.
October is prime time for the CAG.
But that region does produce in June and July sometimes.
It's possible a disturbance can form and get up into the prime region.
And that is what models were indicating with Invest 91L.
Normally it would have developed in the EPAC.
The fact that it didn't and lingered over Central America.
And could not pull it together in the SW Carib...
..... was a pretty good sign it was just an Invest.
But the regime at the NHC this year seems to rely on models...
...more than other teams have and it is what it is.
Subtropical Storm Andrea didn't last as long as Invests 91L
Nuff said.
To read more on what a CAG is read the link below.
You will see how many areas are being monitored for development.
When models begin to favor one area..........
...... it may become an Invest.
An area merely being watched and investigated for development.
Find a balance again between speculation and reality.
Find sources you trust over time.
Sources you have learned to trust over time.
Keep it in perspective but pay attention.
That's it mostly for the weather part of today's blog.
The rest explains where I have been.
And is a good primer for what is Crown Heights.
A place I mention often and just got back from....
Remember his is a blog... an online diary of sorts.
When there's a hurricane out there it's ALL weather ...
....but there is no hurricane today so blogging and having fun.
On a personal level ... hi there :) I'm back from vacation in New York where we went for a wedding and to see two of my daughters and do some shopping for things you can only really get in New York. Amazon is great but it's not the same as actually walking through the Louvre and it's much more fun to wander around and pick things out .... feel some cool air on a sunny day and I gotta tell you generally there is no finer place to be than New York in June. I mean it inspired a song! You can't go wrong going to New York in June. The weather is about as good as it gets !
I was also in upstate New York and I was on the road that goes back and forth from Monsey NY across the river down through Manhattan any which way Waze takes you to get across the other river into Brooklyn because Manhattan is really an island! My other daughter lives in the Flatbush area of New York and we spent a lot of time in Boro Park and Crown Heights. As you know from reading this blog I lived in Crown Heights, I went to school in Crown Heights and it's a sort of spiritual home that nourishes me as much as the incredible food in all the new trendy restaurants does as somehow Crown Heights became trendy. It's a beautiful neighbor that finds a balance for many cultures that call it home.
Years ago it was a nice, new suburb predominately Jewish built when the subway stop on Kingston Avenue and Eastern Parkway opened up that part of what had previously been a bucolic area that fast evolved into an neighborhood of nice homes on shaded streets for young families who were moving away from the Lower East Side. Over time many Caribbean Island families moved into Crown Heights and found it also a beautiful place with nice homes, brownstones, parks and shaded streets. At some point Chabad Lubavitch moved into Crown Heights after the previous Lubavitcher Rebbe Rabbi Joseph I. Schneerson made it his home and in doing so made it World Chabad Headquarters. Time went by and as the older Jewish population died out a young vibrant Chabad community evolved as many come from all over the world to study and live there for a while before either finding a home there permanently or going out somewhere into the world to take a little bit of Crown Heights with them where ever they live and often return "home" to touch home base as I did the last few days.
Oh did I mention the Dodgers used to play in Crown Heights? You might want to do a little bit of reading up on the history of Brooklyn ...
There's a beauty and a balance to Crown Heights where tree lined streets shade your walk through neighborhoods where people grown gardens and roses bloom in June. Now days there are street fairs, parades of all kinds and a farmers market in a park. People live together in balance in this sweet space where many feel at home and recently it's even become a bit of a tourist attraction. I feel like I'm in Key West with people doing walking tours with tourists from more cultures than I can even try and list here. I even stood on a corner to see what the guy was saying but really time moves fast in a New York minute so I moved on to meet my husband for coffee and a doughnut at Gombo's Bakery. It's so trendy in Crown Heights we now have outdoor patios to eat and enjoy the food and the view. Who knew?
Showing two YouTube videos that show the different sides of Crown Heights but they both show the enjoyment people have of living there and why it's a much loved neighborhood. As y'all know I love fashion so let's start there.
Another view of Lubavitch and Crown Heights.
And some blend the two and still call it home.
It's a big world.
Embrace what you love.
Enjoy what you love.
Accept others with love.
Wasn't this trip inspirational for me?
That's it.
I'm back recuperating from too much dancing....
... too much walking (NY...) and too much food.
Walking from the wedding party venue...
...to the wedding site on Eastern Parkway at 770 in high heels.
And then back again for dancing.....
Yeah I'm resting today :)
I do love Crown Heights :) as you can tell.
Note Crown HEIGHTS has HILLS.
I'm just a bit tired today.
We got back around 1 AM ....
Catching up on what's going on in the tropics.
Resting today.
Writing long obviously.
Home in Carolina.
Not expecting much to develop in the next few days.
So enjoy the long blog if you read the whole thing.
And I'm home loving the posts of my friends.
Catching up.
Is Mike back from his cruise?
Wonder if either of us got any rest.
Most of us know nothing is happening for a while.
So we take our trips in early June.
June too soon for hurricanes..........
.........but usually a good time for a vacation!
Another best friend is in Myrtle Beach this week...
Ps. To be honest yes we love Eastern Parkway so much we take wedding pictures there and film CD covers there as well. Okay my son helped make this video and he's hidden in there in a few places and it's one of my favorites so you get the idea... the feel.... the beauty and joy of what it is for me to be there, wander through the Jewish Bookstore, pray at 770 the synagogue, buy my best friend a few presents which I must remember to send out tomorrow and .... be totally exhausted from a huge wedding that went on for hours with much dancing, song, food, music and happy memories. Make your own memories, June is running out... go enjoy New York in June.
Friday Third Look at Snow Storms and Weather and a Cold, Cold Start to March.
Went out last night for drinks with friends.
Whiskey Kitchen in Downtown Raleigh.
The Capital of North Carolina.
Filled with big beautiful public squares.
And in the spring they burst forth with color.
Beneath the Oaks in the City of Oaks.
At dusk it was almost warm.
But the forecast as 22 on Wednesday.
Which season is it already?
Woke up this morning and it's March...
...go figure.
March 5th is Fat Tuesday.
March 26th is Purim.
Busy month.
Make the calendar your own :)
Happy March!
Yes that means 3 months til the Hurricane Season.
For some it's considered Spring today.
Meteorological Spring begins March 1st :)
Why you ask?
Check back later this afternoon.
I'll talk on this weekend's storm.
And what will be will be with the next.
I'm still holding with Roxboro gets snow.
Doubtful on Raleigh.
A sliver of a chance it doesn't rain this Saturday here.
Sunday shows thunder.
Do I count ten days because it's winter?
Or go with March 1st being Spring?
Check back later.
Til then.... much here to think on.
And still relevant.
It shows a messy mix of systems trying to come together.
Models have been doing the two step.
An old Virginia Reel ....
Did you ever have to learn this in school?
I did.
If only Mother Nature would come together like this.
But they they kind of then they move back.
Mother Nature doesn't want to dance this year.
She's doing her own thing.
Bi Polar personality maybe?
Or 2 Faces of Mother Nature.
Northern Jet Stream.
Southern Jet Stream.
Will these two ever hook up again for a winter storm?
Not likely but possible.
DaBuh shows these possibilities here above.
Who do you believe?
Whether it's the hurricane season or winter....
... The EURO and the GFS can't agree on the weather.
It's like that dance above.
We take a few steps to come together and then...
... things fall apart and we slide away.
Move on down the line.
EURO says NO.
GFS promises YES.
When you love the weather there are always consequences and moodiness sets in if the snow storm gets yanked away by the Yankees and Southerners dream of one last chance to see snow flurries flying about. Boring weather is boring for weather people. We all have those memories we love to remember and wish we could get a set up like that again. A few thunderbolts that came down fast nearby frightening us out of the pool and running for cover. A day when tornadoes were predicted and hit nearby and the sky turned more colors than Jacob's coat of many colors but they were all turbulent and in motion as they raced across the sky to a touchdown nearby just beyond the horizon. Standing on the protected porch with my brother watching things flying down the street.... roof shingles, branches, small trees in what was not a strong breeze but a real hurricane. Santa Ana winds in California snapping electric wires, starting fires and killing the flowers in the garden as if a dragon just exhaled with his dangerous breath as LA was melting under it's relentless presence. Weather memories dance in our heads the way scenes from Twister make us laugh and we love songs that talk about the weather. Loving weather has consequences.
Loving weather has consequences.
For many of us it's the first thing we remember loving.
Staring out the windows at a hurricane blowing.
Palm trees bent over swaying in the wind.
Hanging out on the porch in a thunderstorm.
Playing in our first snow fall.
Seeing our first snow falling.
Seeing the trunk of a Twister forming in dark clouds...
... wondering where it will touch down.
We are stuck at the end of winter....
...with wicked cold about to descend.
And yet only promises of rain....
Even though we dream of snow falling.
Weather people don't play it safe.
I'll tell you that.
See when you film a video for a song named Perfect..
...you put snow into the video.
It makes everything more perfect.
In some places weather is happening.
The Tar River in NC is flirting with flood levels.
NC has had way too much rain this year.
Hurricanes and Winter Storms that brought cold, cold rain.
Myrtle Beach ... A Needed Getaway... To a Place I Love.... Hurricane Florence Long Gone.... Sunrise Sunset. Green Flash & Green Book Wins
Warning I may ramble...
..intoxicated by the beach and the sound of the surf.
Did I mention Sunset and Sunrise?
Keep reading...
This is your generic advertisement brochure for any beach, but in this case it's Myrtle Beach and it really looks like this often if you are lucky and on this trip down to South Carolina I got lucky. Okay I may have prayed also and a lot of prayers seem to have gotten answered. It's my 10th Wedding Anniversary weekend and a celebration of people I love being happy and it's also my daughter's birthday but more on that later.
Last night's sunset at Broadway on the Beach.
2 things I love.. Broadway and the Beach.
I also had a Margarita ;)
at a Key West Restaurant near the water..
..after wandering through Margaritaville!
I'm writing this blog this morning from the 10th floor...
..listening to the sound of the ocean and the waves below.
Yes... 10th floor. It's the details that matter.
I literally woke up to this view.
The view from my bed out the sliding glass door.
That's venus shining in the sky...
...over a colorful display of beauty.
I got dressed fast.
Thankfully I put on leggings and my sweater.
I forgot to check the temperature out there.
Good thing too or I may not have gone down there.
View from the balcony stunning but....
...sometimes you gotta get up close and personal.
It was 43 degrees and "feels like 36"
Seagulls and sandpipers ....
...catching the moment the sun breaks the horizon.
The waves, the wind and the seafoam.
I had a beautiful nice last night in so many ways. Walked around Margaritaville listening to Jimmy Buffett songs thinking it's not like being in Key West but it's a pretty place to be. Decided to go over to the Key West Grill on the lagoon and get a Margarita that way I could say I was in both Myrtle Beach and Key West at once! Good margarita and a nice view of the sun setting over the lagoon at Broadway on the Beach. If you come to Myrtle Beach it's a must see like the Ferris Wheel and the Gay Dolphin and the Hurricane Myrtle at Myrtle Beach Margaritaville. My husband is over at Chabad House a few blocks from the hotel doing his morning prayers while I do my morning blog. You seriously didn't think I was going to not include a Hurricane in my Anniversary plans did you?
As always looking for that elusive green flash at sunrise.
Or was it sunset?
Anyway....
I wanted to go away and party and I wanted to wander around the beach and other places round these parts I love and I wanted to get some kosher lamb at the Food Lion here (seriously high on my list) and wanted to watch the Oscars. I had a somewhat vested interest in the Oscars this year and if my wishes came true (and they did) then Green Book would win the Oscar and I'd smile a lot and Green Book won the Oscar as did people involved and I smiled so much. There are things I say and things I allude to and only the guilty party gets all the innuendo but I'm fricking over the moon happy for my crazy friend and that wishes come true.
Green Book is an incredible movie with some great cars :)
That's what "he" said...
And he's always right.
In truth Green Book is a story that should be told and it's good to learn about a time in history that was different from today when we are blessed to have so many freedoms and opportunity to do what we love. Once upon a time the original deeds to my parent's house in Miami Beach had the clause that the property could not be sold to Blacks, Jews or Dogs. Why a dog would want to buy a house I have no idea but apparently in case it was possible the early bigoted, prejudice builders of Mid Beach near Arthur Godfrey Road wanted to make sure that blacks, jews and dogs stayed far away from true white privilege; know that Arthur Godfrey Road is now the center of the Orthodox Jewish community filled with Kosher restaurants, blacks are allowed to live there and dogs can be seen walking with their owners on their way to the beach and the boardwalk. That's irony. That's karma. Once upon a time Sammy Davis Jr was allowed to perform at the Fountainblue with the rest of the Rat Pack but he was expected to sleep in Overtown across beautiful Biscayne Bay in a place that was in the Green Book; the guide to where people of color were welcome. If you read his biography "Yes, I can" you will read all about that incident and others and as Sammy used to like to remind people he was the most handicapped person around as he was a one eyed, Negro Jew... oh that man could sing and dance but he still had to stay at the "right" hotel not the one he was singing and dancing in...
Miami Beach was beautiful always; early on the Jews were only allowed to stay south of 5th Street though that did change fast enough I will admit it's still a dark scar on Miami Jewish History that every Jewish Miami kid knows. My parent's lives on 37th and Sheridan in the 1970s so it seems Arthur Godfrey Jr did not get his wish. Sorry Charlie... and have had some wonderful black neighbors over time so he must really be rolling in his grave. In fact there are Argentinians and Israelis and Canadians and Russians all mixed together into a beautiful Beach City that loves all creatures (even dogs) and it's a diverse, happy place. That's karma biting some people in the proverbial ass! It's also a great place to film a movie and it has so many picturesque film locations...
So back to me and my crazy, sometimes upside down life. I loaded up my favorite makeup including my Kat Von D compact and my Huda Eyeshadow Palette and Stila stay on forever even after sipping a margarita lipstick and bought some Strawberry Creme cookies to nibble on while sipping some sort of alcoholic strawberry canned drink and watched the Oscars and wishes came true. And, I woke up in the morning, made a fast coffee in the room and went downstairs and collected shells and took pictures and videos and prayed to God thanking him for this beautiful day; okay my husband went to Chabad but to each his own. And to the person who wrote about me leaving Chabad in the Post.... that's rich irony as here I am still connected and still chasing sunrise and hurricanes and doing what I love.
What do you love? I love dancing and weather and music and make up and beaches and margaritas and best friends who have rocked my world.
My daughter gave us permission to get married on her birthday.
February 24th was always a good day for me.
It was also Rosh Chodesh Adar and Fat Tuesday.
Ps I had a Hurricane at Fat Tuesday last night ;)
Dina hoops.
She loves to hoop.
Apparently she has a mother who let her do what she loves.
This is who I am.... my Twitter feed is almost all filled with winter weather notifications and a few geological ones thrown in peppered with some politics and a few Chanukah menorahs along the way. I do weather, a lot of weather and now that I live in the Carolinas I do winter weather or more so I spend most of my time wishing on winter weather. I wear a snowflake charm or a bracelet with white snowflakes as if somehow that will insure me of at least some of the white stuff falling in North Carolina this winter.
Chanukah comes early this year and as so often happens when that happens it seems winter also comes early. The Jewish calendar is based on the moon and the civil dates differ from year to year greatly, over time I've noticed often in years when holidays come early so does the winter weather. This is not a science anymore than me wanting to believe if I wear a snowflake it will snow soon ;) But well... it seems to be working and if you don't believe me look at my 7 day weather forecast! Those are snowflakes for the weekend!
I'm in Raleigh this Chanukah, not sunny bright hot Miami and not Crown Heights which is lit up with menorahs and Chanukah decorations everywhere but in the Carolinas where Chanukah sometimes is harder to see. In Miami the Miami Herald newspaper runs a banner on the top of the page on the days of Chanukah, in Raleigh there was no real mention this morning in the News and Observer newspaper that Chanukah started but imagine eventually it will show up... like the snow... eventually. Spectrum News did nice coverage though as they do of weather and other local news.
Truth is I love 'holiday time" and as I grew up when little in a not very Jewish area all my friends had beautiful trees each decorated differently and every family would invite me over to help decorate as they knew we didn't do Christmas. So basically I got to throw tinsel on everyone's tree... I grew up Down South where tinsel is like glitter ... it just isn't a party without some glitter or tinsel on the decorations. Go figure they were a bit envious that I got presents for 8 nights and would come over sometimes to play with my dreidels and liked the menorah my parents lit in the window every night of Chanukah. I like Raleigh, it's a nice place where people are warm, friendly and say things like "have a blessed day" and when they do I smile because how awesome is it to live somewhere where people take saying "have a blessed day" as important as "take care now" or "gotta go"...
Winter came early this year with subfreezing temperatures for a few days and then as always it warmed up to near 70 degrees last night and soon it will plunge back again into the 30s at night. So basically I can wear sandals and boots and live in leggings most of the winter. I love Miami and I often talk on how beautiful the decorations are and being in Key West for the holidays is awesome but more and more the allure and the charm of Carolina during the Holidays does me in. Rarely do I end a sentence purposely with a preposition but it's the only way to say it and really explain the beauty of the Carolinas. I also love wearing leggings ;)
Winter may or may not make a snowy appearance in parts of the South this week and when I say "this week" I mean the "end of the week" and more like the weekend. Amazingly the same system that may bring Oklahoma City snow also aims at the Carolinas and the rest of the South. I'm hoping and if snow falls here you'll know my prayers were answered along with good health for everyone, happiness and just keep on stimulating the economy within reason this shopping season as you buy presents for Chanukah or pile up the presents under the tree. Years back when I was raising all the kids I'd hide their presents in my best friend's closet and she'd do the same with her presents in mine. After a while this became an easy way of hiding anything big I'd want to surprise anyone with as I'd just say "oh those are Sharon's she's hiding them from her kids" and believe it or not... it worked! Love her, she's in Florida with her many grandchildren and children missing me but happy I'm here. She always said it's perfect that "the girl who read Southern Living" ended up in the South. She's a Yankee... she never got the me buying Southern Living Magazine in Miami :) Nice recipe in this month's magazine for "Root Vegetable Fritters" aka Latkes. https://www.southernliving.com/recipes/root-vegetable-fritters
I'll update later in the week as the forecast becomes more defined. Currently I hit my weather app every few hours to see if they took my snowflakes for Saturday and Sunday away or put a few more back in.... this far out it's like doing the hokey pokey a lot of fun but when others see you doing it they make fun. Sometimes in Raleigh the closest I get to snow flakes is the snow flakes on the long term part of the ten day forecast on my weather app.
My son is a Jewish Music Producer and he lives and breathes music and art as he has an abundance of artsy genes from both sides of the family tree. He sent me this link to the most magical music video. You don't need to understand hebrew to understand the message here. He is one of the best new singers in the Jewish Market and each song and each video illuminates the beauty in his voice and in his message. Watch the story unfold and feel the beauty of the story being told.
Chanukah is a holiday that speaks of courage and faith and miracles. As a child growing up it's hard to understand the whole "they found this little bit of olive oil" but we all loved hearing the story. The Meme on Facebook this week really does tell the story.
Now that puts Chanukah into a perspective we all can understand better. As for me our house is scented with olive oil as I fry various fritters and make Southern Fried Chicken on Chanukah and well ... we can diet next week. Oh and donuts are on the menu plan for lunch as a place in downtown Raleigh that makes coffee is making kosher donuts* this year as we have a new Rabbi and Rebbetzin in town working with Young Professionals in Downtown Raleigh... a beautiful couple and amazingly the granddaughter of a good friend of mine... if that doesn't make me feel old what will? But her grandmother helped bring my family closer to Chabad and was a role model when I was young so wow indeed. And my son works with her cousin Benny Friedman... small world getting smaller all the time. Fill it with joy and winter weather and I'll be a happy camper. *only the donuts are kosher but hey it's a start!
Happy Chanukah!!
Gotta Love December!!
Okay...it's my birthday month too!
Ps I remember when they were looking for candles for this video :) yeah, I'm proud and more so the song has been stuck in my head all morning... so light TWO candles tonight on the Menorah!
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm