Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Updated 10 PM Invest 95L and 96L to Follow. Wave Train Leaving From Africa .. May Come to a Town Near You Soon. Please Prepare and Get a Plan.


Updated 8 PM
East Atlantic Wave now up to 40%


95L may develop but if so not for a while.
Close in. 
Either way PR will remember 95L
Flooding... heavy rain. 

Significantly interesting.



Just got home. 
Going to watch the debate.
Tomorrow I'll update.
We should have Invest 96L soon.
Stay tuned!

Note this tweet below.
Waves traveling around the High....
Once Tropical Storms or Hurricanes....
They can curve out to sea off shore.
They can go South under the High into the Caribbean.
They can make landfall.
You know this dance and the steps.
 Be back tomorrow morning


My thoughts......... check out the model tracks.
Where the high is will guide the movement.
Strong waves.
Strong High.
If the waves develop will they be well stacked?
If so we will have to watch the tropics carefully.




10% for now in the 5 day for Invest 95L
20% in the 5 day for what will be Invest 96L

Note I'm on vacation.
You may find typos.
Sorry if so I'll edit later.
Short on time this morning :)

Going to do 95L first.
Location wise it's on our doorstep.
Time wise down the road so may 96L be.



Note there is convection there.
It lacks a true center.
Wait and see what happens as it hits warmer water.
Less shear.


Wide view of the Atlantic.
You can see 95L and the wave off Africa.
Also an active ITCZ
And a dark, deep High Pressure Zone.


I'll talk on the wave off Africa later.
Another view below.
Healthy waves for late July.
Close your eyes it will be August soon!
Putting this here now as it's relevant.

I used to be more impatient.
Someone taught me to have patience.
So now I wait.
You can wait too.
Soon we will be so busy.
I hope I'm wrong.
But I don't think so...
Those African Waves.




Here are our tropics today.
Note the wave in the Caribbean flaring up.
Moving up into the Atlantic.
Crossing the Mona Passage.
Raining on PR... 
Moving towards warmer water....
...and less shear.
It's here off Florida and the Bahamas we watch.
Out in the Atlantic you can see the ITCZ
And the wave off of Africa.
That wave is the real player here.
But #95L shows where it may go.
Expect #96L to develop soon.




Some models that were run for the current waves.
Details change but just look at those tracks.
Around the high.
How close to they and others come to the East Coast.
And impact the islands later in the season?

Note Earthnull image.
Nothing specific in the Caribbean.
It's a wave in the Caribbean still.
But close to Africa...
...lot's of swirls, semi closed off.
Potent waves.


Check out the wave closest to Africa.
The one with the yellow circle.


Waves often fall apart.
This one so far has good model support.
I'll go long on models tomorrow.
I'm in Savannah this morning.
Finishing up vacation.


Note PR is getting rain from Invest 95L
Let's hope all PR gets this season is needed rain.
And nothing more.



I'm still on the road, home later tonight and I'll do full updates then. Today is a day to sit, watch and think on what you would need to do if a hurricane comes to your town later in the season. I'm not trying to hype or alarm anyone here ... but I am trying to educate and inspire you to please take this hurricane season seriously. I really do hope I am wrong but with a huge high set in place somewhat anchored and strong, healthy stubborn tropical waves rolling off of Africa (nicely spaced I may add) the road map right now leads towards the Islands and ultimately the East Coast. Yes, things can change and yes the high may open up and many things can happen but this is a set up that compels us to take the 2019 Hurricane Season seriously.

Often times a hurricane can aim itself at Miami or Charleston and swerve to the NNW and then the N and then go out to sea with an approaching cold front and we do have cold fronts this year on the map even in late July though they are not so cold, but they sure did grab what was TD3 and didn't get a name and absorb it's moisture. So landfalling hurricanes are not a lock in, however it's very possible we will have coastal cruisers and if the high is very strong and low they could cross Florida or the Florida Straits into the Gulf of Mexico.

So stay alert and watch the tropics but while watching please take stock of what your particular household needs to deal with power outages, evacuation and the dangers inherent in an approaching hurricane.



Everything in life comes down at some point to decisions. I'm in Savannah this morning at the most beautiful Marshall House on Broughton Street and loving it. I wanted to go out and watch the sunrise but I didn't want to leave the room. So I opened the curtains in the cute old fashioned shower and watched the sunrise from the bathroom during my morning shower. I mean oh my gosh heaven. Not a great view but watched sunset last night so I'm good. Note usually we park in that parking garage, I drink coffee from the nearby Starbucks or get ice cream nearby and walk in and out of the Marshall House wishing I could stay there. Now I did...  It was a great sunrise in it's way, so is Savannah. I do have distant relatives here and pass through often but sometimes you just got to go with your gut and do what you love. I'll update later tonight from Raleigh. For now I feel home in Savannah.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram




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Monday, February 25, 2019

Myrtle Beach ... A Needed Getaway... To a Place I Love.... Hurricane Florence Long Gone.... Sunrise Sunset. Green Flash & Green Book Wins

Warning I may ramble...
..intoxicated by the beach and the sound of the surf.
Did I mention Sunset and Sunrise?
Keep reading...


This is your generic advertisement brochure for any beach, but in this case it's Myrtle Beach and it really looks like this often if you are lucky and on this trip down to South Carolina I got lucky. Okay I may have prayed also and a lot of prayers seem to have gotten answered. It's my 10th Wedding Anniversary weekend and a celebration of people I love being happy and it's also my daughter's birthday but more on that later. 



Last night's sunset at Broadway on the Beach.
2 things I love.. Broadway and the Beach.
I also had a Margarita ;)
at a Key West Restaurant near the water..
..after wandering through Margaritaville!

I'm writing this blog this morning from the 10th floor...
..listening to the sound of the ocean and the waves below.
Yes... 10th floor. It's the details that matter.


I literally woke up to this view.
The view from my bed out the sliding glass door.
That's venus shining in the sky...
...over a colorful display of beauty.

I got dressed fast.
Thankfully I put on leggings and my sweater.
I forgot to check the temperature out there.
Good thing too or I may not have gone down there.
View from the balcony stunning but....
...sometimes you gotta get up close and personal.
It was 43 degrees and "feels like 36"


Seagulls and sandpipers ....
...catching the moment the sun breaks the horizon.
The waves, the wind and the seafoam.

I had a beautiful nice last night in so many ways. Walked around Margaritaville listening to Jimmy Buffett songs thinking it's not like being in Key West but it's a pretty place to be. Decided to go over to the Key West Grill on the lagoon and get a Margarita that way I could say I was in both Myrtle Beach and Key West at once! Good margarita and a nice view of the sun setting over the lagoon at Broadway on the Beach. If you come to Myrtle Beach it's a must see like the Ferris Wheel and the Gay Dolphin and the Hurricane Myrtle at Myrtle Beach Margaritaville. My husband is over at Chabad House a few blocks from the hotel doing his morning prayers while I do my morning blog. You seriously didn't think I was going to not include a Hurricane in my Anniversary plans did you?


As always looking for that elusive green flash at sunrise.
Or was it sunset?
Anyway....

I wanted to go away and party and I wanted to wander around the beach and other places round these parts I love and I wanted to get some kosher lamb at the Food Lion here (seriously high on my list) and wanted to watch the Oscars. I had a somewhat vested interest in the Oscars this year and if my wishes came true (and they did) then Green Book would win the Oscar and I'd smile a lot and Green Book won the Oscar as did people involved and I smiled so much. There are things I say and things I allude to and only the guilty party gets all the innuendo but I'm fricking over the moon happy for my crazy friend and that wishes come true.


Green Book is an incredible movie with some great cars :)
That's what "he" said...
And he's always right.

In truth Green Book is a story that should be told and it's good to learn about a time in history that was different from today when we are blessed to have so many freedoms and opportunity to do what we love. Once upon a time the original deeds to my parent's house in Miami Beach had the clause that the property could not be sold to Blacks, Jews or Dogs. Why a dog would want to buy a house I have no idea but apparently in case it was possible the early bigoted, prejudice builders of Mid Beach near Arthur Godfrey Road wanted to make sure that blacks, jews and dogs stayed far away from true white privilege; know that Arthur Godfrey Road is now the center of the Orthodox Jewish community filled with Kosher restaurants, blacks are allowed to live there and dogs can be seen walking with their owners on their way to the beach and the boardwalk. That's irony. That's karma. Once upon a time Sammy Davis Jr was allowed to perform at the Fountainblue with the rest of the Rat Pack but he was expected to sleep in Overtown across beautiful Biscayne Bay in a place that was in the Green Book; the guide to where people of color were welcome. If you read his biography "Yes, I can" you will read all about that incident and others and as Sammy used to like to remind people he was the most handicapped person around as he was a one eyed, Negro Jew... oh that man could sing and dance but he still had to stay at the "right" hotel not the one he was singing and dancing in...  



Miami Beach was beautiful always; early on the Jews were only allowed to stay south of 5th Street though that did change fast enough I will admit it's still a dark scar on Miami Jewish History that every Jewish Miami kid knows. My parent's lives on 37th and Sheridan in the 1970s so it seems Arthur Godfrey Jr did not get his wish. Sorry Charlie...    and have had some wonderful black neighbors over time so he must really be rolling in his grave. In fact there are Argentinians and Israelis and Canadians and Russians all mixed together into a beautiful Beach City that loves all creatures (even dogs) and it's a diverse, happy place. That's karma biting some people in the proverbial ass! It's also a great place to film a movie and it has so many picturesque film locations... 

So back to me and my crazy, sometimes upside down life. I loaded up my favorite makeup including my Kat Von D compact and my Huda Eyeshadow Palette and Stila stay on forever even after sipping a margarita lipstick and bought some Strawberry Creme cookies to nibble on while sipping some sort of alcoholic strawberry canned drink and watched the Oscars and wishes came true. And, I woke up in the morning, made a fast coffee in the room and went downstairs and collected shells and took pictures and videos and prayed to God thanking him for this beautiful day; okay my husband went to Chabad but to each his own. And to the person who wrote about me leaving Chabad in the Post.... that's rich irony as here I am still connected and still chasing sunrise and hurricanes and doing what I love.

What do you love? I love dancing and weather and music and make up and beaches and margaritas and best friends who have rocked my world.


My daughter gave us permission to get married on her birthday.
February 24th was always a good day for me.
It was also Rosh Chodesh Adar and Fat Tuesday.
Ps I had a Hurricane at Fat Tuesday last night ;)
Dina hoops.
She loves to hoop.
Apparently she has a mother who let her do what she loves.


That's my girl.
She's a character. Definitely my daughter.
One of my daughters.

Some people love to watch satellite loops.


Yes I can almost feel the hurricane season in the wind.
Whispering... "don't forget me"


Dabuh loves beaches, surf and hurricanes.
He also loves hurricane people.
You don't get more hurricane people than PHIL.
Trust me I know.
Well maybe a few but.... he watches hurricanes.
And I mean all over from all over.
Phil could be in Switzerland and he'd be watching the Pacific.
Really...
I'm more an Atlantic girl ...


This girl Barbie lives in Key West.
Takes great pictures.


The beauty of the beach is it's always changing.
It's also always rearranging itself in odd ways.
Miami Beach is built on a Sandbar remember that!
Colors change, clouds come and go and then the sun comes out!

Enjoy those places you love.
Love the people you love.
Do what you love.
Do it with LOVE.
Indeed.... so true.

One thing I adore about Mike is...
...he does what he loves.
And we love him for it!


I'll be writing about the tropics more and more in the coming days.
Some hurricane history and hurricane tips.

Stay tuned...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Instagram and Twitter

Ps... My son is a music producer. Ironic huh?
He does what he loves.

He produced this song and the CD.
Producers are awesome... 
..producing and oozing creativity :)
















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Monday, May 14, 2018

Updated! Tropical Disturbance Over South Florida Brings Tornado Warnings ... Cantore in South Florida. Hmnn. Down the Road a 2nd System May Form in the Caribbean and Aim At South Florida from the South and Be Way Stronger Than Today's Disturbance.


It's now officially "Disturbance 1"
Ok....

I called it a tropical disturbance earlier this morning and that is what it is and currently nothing more. However, if you watch it on the radar and satellite imagery you will see it is beginning to get a more "tropical" presentation rather than just a blob. This could get a name even as a Subtropical Storm but it could just as easily become tropical very close in to landfall. Til then it is slowly cruising up the West coast of Florida dumping rain across the state.


Keep reading.
Keep watching.


No Invest yet but that may come.
Cantore is in place.
How long will it take...
...for the NHC to get it's act together?

Welcome to the 2018 Hurricane Season.



 And TWC is in South Florida.
Of course....

Reality bites a bit early this year.

WPB had what seems to have been a tornado and while they are debating based on the damage if it was or wasn't but this tropical disturbance has already brought flooding rains and tornado warnings. And, it's just getting started. Meanwhile I'm in Myrtle Beach watching from a beautiful hotel room taking turns looking out at the ocean and watching TWC. We got weather now...


Yes it's a beach sunrise.
But it's framed pretty here by sea oats.



I woke up this morning in Myrtle Beach and looked out the big wide open window at the sun beginning to rise over the ocean. Sweet. Just sat outside on the balcony and watched the sunrise slowly unfold before me. Okay, eventually I went downstairs with a cup of coffee and got my toes in the water and my feet in the sand or however that song goes and I smiled and thought "wow, life is good" and the beach will do that to me always. Not a hot blazing sun but a warm sun and a balmy breeze on the edge of cool as it's really May even though it feels more like late June in the Carolinas. What I love about a Carolina beach is it's different in it's own unique way as every beach is .... but watching a sunrise come up through the sea oats and watching them bend to the wind and the endless waves moving steadily onshore..... well it's different in Miami. But, you're not here to hear me rant on the sunrise....

And, what starts down in Florida may move up towards the Carolinas later in the week as the deep tropical moisture that brought tornadoes to WPB will be moving north sliding it's way over the length of Florida, into Georgia while grazing the Mobile Alabama area and then head up into the Appalachians with that moisture moving up towards the Carolinas. That's the pattern and for now it's pretty set in the sand ;)

For those looking for a fear factor or hurricane forecasting Fantasy Football style you can watch the "scary" long range run of the GFS. Let's see how well it does with the area that probably should be an Invest but is not yet an Invest as I type this morning's blog... before worrying on a Hurricane in a week or so coming up out of the Caribbean aiming at most of Florida. This Hurricane Season seems like a variation sequel to last year's hurricane season yet the aim at Florida may come from a different direction.


Ouch...


www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

I show this long range model that will change many times between here and there to mitigate it by reminding you of the reality that it will change much between now and there. There is some scary click bait going around social media on this possible named storm. What needs to be understood by these scary tropical scenarios that Floridians do not want to hear about..... you need to look at the High in the model link above. It's what I said the other day and it stays this way for while . . . for a long while. Anything that gets underneath it will follow the edge of the high and where anything makes landfall depends on the high on any given day.  Again look at this picture below but not at Jim Cantore in South Florida but the satellite image on the right. Note the curve of the clouds.... that's where this system is going to go in the short term. And, when I say "this system" I mean the one on the stage currently not the one waiting in the wings hiding in stealth mode down in the Caribbean


Up into Georgia and the Carolinas....
Moisture to end the drought.


Please read the previous blog post as it explains this two part scenario well.

There are 2 issues here:

1 is the disturbance near Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico we are currently watching that brought Jim down to South Florida.

2 is the area down in the Caribbean that is forecast by the various models to come together, shoot the Yucatan Channel and move up into the very warm waters of the Florida Straits and the SE Gulf of Mexico and form into some sort of named storm and move up over Florida. The current track takes it through the Keys and up over Florida as if it's a weaker Irma from a different direction. Tomorrow the models may take it straight up into the Panhandle and spare Miami and WPB. Who knows really? It's just a model and the one thing I can promise you about this hurricane season is the models will be wrong often.

Stay tuned.

It could be worse, you could be living in paradise with lava fissures opening up under your back patio and having it eat your mustang convertible along with the house and the neighbor's house spewing toxic gas. Life is better in Florida even if you have to wait and see which way the dice are going to roll out and if you do or don't get a tropical storm you can prepare for ...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter... follow me there for faster updates than here.

Ps.. I'll update this blog later today news permitting and depending on when I am or I am not in the water with or walking along the beach with my toes in the sand.

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Tuesday, October 10, 2017

TS Ophelia ... ULL/Wave Close In.. FIRES California and Tropical Waves


sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Again Ophelia is far to the right.
Not the system closer to the Bahamas.


Ophelia is closer to Africa...
...headed towards the Azores.



But hey... we are closer to the Bahamas so..
..we be watching that Upper Level Low spin.



Hard not to watch it.

wv-l.jpg (720×480)


 Some thoughts below.
Always good thoughts.
Weather.. strong weather.
Dirty side of the ULL usually is dirty
(messy)



Tropical Storm Ophelia is spinning, slowly intensifying out over the distant Atlantic closer to Africa than the system not forecast to develop East of the Bahamas. That's called "foreshadowing" in creative writing... just so you know. Keeping this short this morning because I'm on the road and not much to say. It's hard not to notice it....

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)


Ophelia is still forecast to become a hurricane and it will make an impact on Europe in the not so distant future. If Ophelia becomes a hurricane it will continue the hurricane streak we got going this year that is breaking all records.


Note from the NHC discussion above.
And see where Ophelia goes eventually below...


Coming back to our side of the world

al_rCUMP_048.gif (600×710)

There's also a tropical wave...
..messing with PR again sadly.



There is a system East of Florida that is mostly an ULL with a great deal of convection trying to wrap itself inside of it... however.....there is strong shear in the area keeping it a wet nuisance for now. So keep it in mind as shear often comes and goes and  there is always the possibility that after it travels across Florida it can get into a friendlier environment in the Gulf of Mexico. I'm just putting it out there as a "random possibility" as models have been hinting and when I say models I mean a few of the EURO ensemble members have brought this suggestion up in their morning board meeting. Stay tuned. Never turn your back on any area of convection that persists and spins this particular hurricane season.


The real "weather" story today has turned from the tropics to the fires in California. Go figure right? The tropics suddenly give us a break and fire breaks out in California and Santa Ana winds feed the flames... whipping them up wildly. You have to understand the Santa Ana winds are close to tropical storm force and they take flames and scatter them about faster than I can type... and I type fast. Add into the mix the chaparral that covers the mountainside is a plant with a very high oil content that tends to explode the moment a spark lands on it and it literally becomes a burning bush that explodes and strong winds take those embers miles away landing onto another bush that explodes. It's a recipe for disaster in a dry summer and they have had a dry summer. We are talking about small neighborhoods close in not out in the canyons somewhere but populated areas.  A Hilton Hotel burned down as well as many large civic buildings as well as homes, stores and the death toll is climbing as I type this...

So ... keep giving the American Red Cross because America seems to be under siege this year from Mother Nature who seems hellbent to cause misery and disaster everywhere.

https://www.redcross.org/

I'm on the road Southbound staying in Northeast Florida enjoying the sun on the water and the waves .... and the sunrise and basically I am in beach heaven this morning. It's a nice way to start the day watching the sunrise over the ocean. And then we hit the road again.... Southbound.

I'll update later today if anything pops up but it may take a while. The fastest way to get updates is to use Twitter and add me as I update in real time when something is going on...

Be well, be happy and be safe.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Check out Mike on Facebook Live as I'm sure he's talking about that Bahama ULL as well as whatever comes into Mike's mind ;)

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/videos/10155586703467367/



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Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Maria Cat 5 Devastates Dominica Now Cruising on towards Puerto Rico. Very small compact dangerous storm... Jose Going Nowhere Fast But Will Jose Erode the High and Give Maria a Way Out of Making Landfall along the East Coast. If Not... Well Pray Jose Does His Job.


Watching the hurricanes from far away..
..in Ormond Beach.
Always beautiful here.

Maria below is beautiful.
But Maria is deadly.

rgb-animated.gif (720×480)



Link to Discussion for Jose and Maria.

The main part of the discussion is that Maria is going over warm water with low shear and the only intangible on landfall is if Maria will be going through an eye-wall replacement cycle. That's it and that means a truly catastrophic hit on Puerto Rico unless something unforeseen happens. Although much of PR is built better than the smaller islands,  when you are talking about a buzz saw category 5 Hurricane moving directly over it you are talking about a variety of homes and geography. Granted the metropolitan areas often have better built homes yet they are often built closer to the water and those structures will be dealing with storm surge of historic proportions at the immediate site where the eye wall makes landfall. Up in the hills, mountains and valleys there will be wide spread flash flooding and possibly mudslides.... etc, etc...  What doesn't anyone understand about the word "catastrophic" ??

I've had people tell me they hate hearing that word, it's over used. Well I could describe for you what Marathon looks like and that was North of the eye that ripped apart Big Pine Key and Cudjoe. Marathon in the Florida Keys looks like a nuclear bomb went off .... yet some of the better built properties are still standing. And with all of the military personal and first responders, military aircraft coming in and out it feels like a war zone in all ways. It's bad and Maria will trash PR at best and destroy a good part of the infrastructure at worst. Not to mention loss of life and notice I am not mentioning "death toll" for Irma as it is a moving target. They are still going through home sites, docks, beaches and every inch of the Lower Keys looking for those lost souls who decided to stay and ride out the hurricane. I know that for a fact as my son-in-law was involved in the search ....  The death toll in Dominica will be much higher and I can only imagine what it will be in PR where flooding and mudslides in the interior region could cause massive loss of life. I hope not, I really do but it's about as dangerous as it gets. I know after watching a 185 MPH hurricane this seems "weaker" but weak and strong are relative this year.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/190853.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/182048.shtml?


What do you need to know?
Maria barely blinked going over Dominica.
Cat 5 cruising along.


NHC going with Left side of track.
This still keeps Maria way off shore of Florida.

15L_tracks_latest.png (768×768)

As for No Way Jose...

12L_tracks_latest.png (768×768)

Wind Probs offer clues.



I want to be clear here there are watches and warnings along the coastline as effects from Jose could have an impact along some areas. Not the center, there barely is a center as it's more extratropical than not, but winds across a large area will have an impact. Especially as Jose is prone to stalling, looping and not going anywhere rapidly. High tides, riptides and beach erosion are concerns. There may be some delays at airports, etc...  The big favor that Jose will do for Florida if the models verify is that he erodes the Western edge of the High Pressure allowing Maria to escape and go out to sea. Should that not work for some reason and the escape route doesn't appear then Maria would be trapped under a large high pressure and be moved more to the left where she could come in contact with the East Coast ... more likely but not for certain the Carolinas. If the models are correct and the forecast verifies we can thank Jose the way we can thank Cuba that Irma did not hit South Florida with 185 MPH winds... and as the water is warmest over the Florida Straits and the Gulfstream . . . it's unimaginable but possible that it could have been stronger than 185 MPH. Irma was a very rare hurricane with few analog hurricanes that we can even compare it to. Bryan Norcross said on air he had never seen a hurricane like it .... so let that rattle around in your brain a bit.

Maria size wise and intensity wise is much like Andrew and it can wobble a bit due to eye wall replacement cycles. Time will tell but before we obsess on it's long range track let's pray for the people in it's path in the Virgin Islands (it may go to the left of them ... with luck on their side) and the Island of Puerto Rico.  Anyone who stayed up last night listening to live radio reports from Dominica with the Prime Minister posting reports until his roof tore off and he had to be rescued in the lull during the eye knows what the people of Puerto Rico are really facing.


I want to remind people "Lee' is out there.
Remnant sort of low.
Downgraded. 
Still there.
Most likely goes North.
With a name or without one.


There is also an area of convection....
...in the SW Caribbean. 
Bears watching.

rb-animated.gif (720×480)

And a wave is out near Africa...
... but we will wait on that for now.

I'm on the road today.
Interviewing some people.
Documenting damage.
Obviously enjoying the beach.

I will update later today and tonight.

Not much more I can say.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Faster updates in real time on Twitter.

Check out Spaghetti Models for more information












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