Updated! Tropical Disturbance Over South Florida Brings Tornado Warnings ... Cantore in South Florida. Hmnn. Down the Road a 2nd System May Form in the Caribbean and Aim At South Florida from the South and Be Way Stronger Than Today's Disturbance.

It's now officially "Disturbance 1"

Ok....

I called it a tropical disturbance earlier this morning and that is what it is and currently nothing more. However, if you watch it on the radar and satellite imagery you will see it is beginning to get a more "tropical" presentation rather than just a blob. This could get a name even as a Subtropical Storm but it could just as easily become tropical very close in to landfall. Til then it is slowly cruising up the West coast of Florida dumping rain across the state.

Keep reading.

Keep watching.

No Invest yet but that may come.

Cantore is in place.

How long will it take...

...for the NHC to get it's act together?

Welcome to the 2018 Hurricane Season.

 And TWC is in South Florida.

Of course....

Reality bites a bit early this year.

WPB had what seems to have been a tornado and while they are debating based on the damage if it was or wasn't but this tropical disturbance has already brought flooding rains and tornado warnings. And, it's just getting started. Meanwhile I'm in Myrtle Beach watching from a beautiful hotel room taking turns looking out at the ocean and watching TWC. We got weather now...

Yes it's a beach sunrise.

But it's framed pretty here by sea oats.

I woke up this morning in Myrtle Beach and looked out the big wide open window at the sun beginning to rise over the ocean. Sweet. Just sat outside on the balcony and watched the sunrise slowly unfold before me. Okay, eventually I went downstairs with a cup of coffee and got my toes in the water and my feet in the sand or however that song goes and I smiled and thought "wow, life is good" and the beach will do that to me always. Not a hot blazing sun but a warm sun and a balmy breeze on the edge of cool as it's really May even though it feels more like late June in the Carolinas. What I love about a Carolina beach is it's different in it's own unique way as every beach is .... but watching a sunrise come up through the sea oats and watching them bend to the wind and the endless waves moving steadily onshore..... well it's different in Miami. But, you're not here to hear me rant on the sunrise....

And, what starts down in Florida may move up towards the Carolinas later in the week as the deep tropical moisture that brought tornadoes to WPB will be moving north sliding it's way over the length of Florida, into Georgia while grazing the Mobile Alabama area and then head up into the Appalachians with that moisture moving up towards the Carolinas. That's the pattern and for now it's pretty set in the sand ;)

For those looking for a fear factor or hurricane forecasting Fantasy Football style you can watch the "scary" long range run of the GFS. Let's see how well it does with the area that probably should be an Invest but is not yet an Invest as I type this morning's blog... before worrying on a Hurricane in a week or so coming up out of the Caribbean aiming at most of Florida. This Hurricane Season seems like a variation sequel to last year's hurricane season yet the aim at Florida may come from a different direction.

Ouch...

www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

I show this long range model that will change many times between here and there to mitigate it by reminding you of the reality that it will change much between now and there. There is some scary click bait going around social media on this possible named storm. What needs to be understood by these scary tropical scenarios that Floridians do not want to hear about..... you need to look at the High in the model link above. It's what I said the other day and it stays this way for while . . . for a long while. Anything that gets underneath it will follow the edge of the high and where anything makes landfall depends on the high on any given day.  Again look at this picture below but not at Jim Cantore in South Florida but the satellite image on the right. Note the curve of the clouds.... that's where this system is going to go in the short term. And, when I say "this system" I mean the one on the stage currently not the one waiting in the wings hiding in stealth mode down in the Caribbean

Up into Georgia and the Carolinas....

Moisture to end the drought.

Please read the previous blog post as it explains this two part scenario well.

There are 2 issues here:

1 is the disturbance near Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico we are currently watching that brought Jim down to South Florida.

2 is the area down in the Caribbean that is forecast by the various models to come together, shoot the Yucatan Channel and move up into the very warm waters of the Florida Straits and the SE Gulf of Mexico and form into some sort of named storm and move up over Florida. The current track takes it through the Keys and up over Florida as if it's a weaker Irma from a different direction. Tomorrow the models may take it straight up into the Panhandle and spare Miami and WPB. Who knows really? It's just a model and the one thing I can promise you about this hurricane season is the models will be wrong often.

Stay tuned.

It could be worse, you could be living in paradise with lava fissures opening up under your back patio and having it eat your mustang convertible along with the house and the neighbor's house spewing toxic gas. Life is better in Florida even if you have to wait and see which way the dice are going to roll out and if you do or don't get a tropical storm you can prepare for ...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter... follow me there for faster updates than here.

Ps.. I'll update this blog later today news permitting and depending on when I am or I am not in the water with or walking along the beach with my toes in the sand.