Updated! Tropical Disturbance Over South Florida Brings Tornado Warnings ... Cantore in South Florida. Hmnn. Down the Road a 2nd System May Form in the Caribbean and Aim At South Florida from the South and Be Way Stronger Than Today's Disturbance.

It's now officially "Disturbance 1"

Ok....

I called it a tropical disturbance earlier this morning and that is what it is and currently nothing more. However, if you watch it on the radar and satellite imagery you will see it is beginning to get a more "tropical" presentation rather than just a blob. This could get a name even as a Subtropical Storm but it could just as easily become tropical very close in to landfall. Til then it is slowly cruising up the West coast of Florida dumping rain across the state.

Keep reading.

Keep watching.

No Invest yet but that may come.

Cantore is in place.

How long will it take...

...for the NHC to get it's act together?

Welcome to the 2018 Hurricane Season.

 And TWC is in South Florida.

Of course....

Reality bites a bit early this year.

WPB had what seems to have been a tornado and while they are debating based on the damage if it was or wasn't but this tropical disturbance has already brought flooding rains and tornado warnings. And, it's just getting started. Meanwhile I'm in Myrtle Beach watching from a beautiful hotel room taking turns looking out at the ocean and watching TWC. We got weather now...

Yes it's a beach sunrise.

But it's framed pretty here by sea oats.

I woke up this morning in Myrtle Beach and looked out the big wide open window at the sun beginning to rise over the ocean. Sweet. Just sat outside on the balcony and watched the sunrise slowly unfold before me. Okay, eventually I went downstairs with a cup of coffee and got my toes in the water and my feet in the sand or however that song goes and I smiled and thought "wow, life is good" and the beach will do that to me always. Not a hot blazing sun but a warm sun and a balmy breeze on the edge of cool as it's really May even though it feels more like late June in the Carolinas. What I love about a Carolina beach is it's different in it's own unique way as every beach is .... but watching a sunrise come up through the sea oats and watching them bend to the wind and the endless waves moving steadily onshore..... well it's different in Miami. But, you're not here to hear me rant on the sunrise....

And, what starts down in Florida may move up towards the Carolinas later in the week as the deep tropical moisture that brought tornadoes to WPB will be moving north sliding it's way over the length of Florida, into Georgia while grazing the Mobile Alabama area and then head up into the Appalachians with that moisture moving up towards the Carolinas. That's the pattern and for now it's pretty set in the sand ;)

For those looking for a fear factor or hurricane forecasting Fantasy Football style you can watch the "scary" long range run of the GFS. Let's see how well it does with the area that probably should be an Invest but is not yet an Invest as I type this morning's blog... before worrying on a Hurricane in a week or so coming up out of the Caribbean aiming at most of Florida. This Hurricane Season seems like a variation sequel to last year's hurricane season yet the aim at Florida may come from a different direction.

Ouch...

www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

I show this long range model that will change many times between here and there to mitigate it by reminding you of the reality that it will change much between now and there. There is some scary click bait going around social media on this possible named storm. What needs to be understood by these scary tropical scenarios that Floridians do not want to hear about..... you need to look at the High in the model link above. It's what I said the other day and it stays this way for while . . . for a long while. Anything that gets underneath it will follow the edge of the high and where anything makes landfall depends on the high on any given day.  Again look at this picture below but not at Jim Cantore in South Florida but the satellite image on the right. Note the curve of the clouds.... that's where this system is going to go in the short term. And, when I say "this system" I mean the one on the stage currently not the one waiting in the wings hiding in stealth mode down in the Caribbean

Up into Georgia and the Carolinas....

Moisture to end the drought.

Please read the previous blog post as it explains this two part scenario well.

There are 2 issues here:

1 is the disturbance near Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico we are currently watching that brought Jim down to South Florida.

2 is the area down in the Caribbean that is forecast by the various models to come together, shoot the Yucatan Channel and move up into the very warm waters of the Florida Straits and the SE Gulf of Mexico and form into some sort of named storm and move up over Florida. The current track takes it through the Keys and up over Florida as if it's a weaker Irma from a different direction. Tomorrow the models may take it straight up into the Panhandle and spare Miami and WPB. Who knows really? It's just a model and the one thing I can promise you about this hurricane season is the models will be wrong often.

Stay tuned.

It could be worse, you could be living in paradise with lava fissures opening up under your back patio and having it eat your mustang convertible along with the house and the neighbor's house spewing toxic gas. Life is better in Florida even if you have to wait and see which way the dice are going to roll out and if you do or don't get a tropical storm you can prepare for ...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter... follow me there for faster updates than here.

Ps.. I'll update this blog later today news permitting and depending on when I am or I am not in the water with or walking along the beach with my toes in the sand.

Cantore Doing the Plains Today for Tornado Time. Hurricane Season Not Yet Prime Time But Could Come Early. Meteorology and Meteorologists... Definitions and Thoughts. Songs, Memories and Music.

This blog post was inspired by a long discussion on Twitter about what it means to be a "meteorologist" exactly and that's an odd term "long discussion on Twitter" which basically means many tweets and my son who follows me is shaking his head thinking "getting close to the Hurricane Seasons cause Ma is blowing up my phone with Twitter posts!" Hey I didn't tell him to follow me. And, this blog was brought to you by this song that has been oddly stuck in my mind this past week.

Terminology is a moving target depending on your age, your location and your perspective. What does it mean to be a "meteorologist" exactly in today's world? Well, going back to the old dictionary online you will see meteorology is a student of meteorology; someone who has studied meteorology or taken part in the field of meteorology. Note also the word "expert" is used first in this online definition shown above. Meteorologist is not an academic term though many think it means you have a degree in meteorology.  For example... people with a degree in journalism yet not able to break into the market have taken jobs as a "local on air weatherperson" and while doing the forecast they have enrolled in a program online at Mississippi State. Anyone who has the desire, time and money can take that program and get an official degree in meteorology meaning they earn the right to be called a meteorologist officially. But let's be honest we knew that the Scarecrow had a brain way before he ever was given a degree by the Wizard of Oz and we knew the Lion had a heart always.*

I have been a student of meteorology since I was a little girl obsessed with the weather and sitting on the front porch during the rainy season in Miami watching thunderstorms build in the sky waiting for that moment I "knew" it would start raining any minute. I "knew" that moment because I had been studying the weather. A large hurricane came along and blew down the beautiful Jamaican Tall Coconut Palm Trees near by Elementary school and I soon became a student of "tropical meteorology" and I soon became obsessive calling the Weather Bureau number that gave me the time and temperature several times a day! I followed Weaver the Weatherman as if he was the Holy Grail of Weather being annoyed when a big news story would break into my weather forecast and longed for the hurricane season when maps of the Caribbean showed up on the television screen. Yes I am obviously older than dirt as I actually grew up watching the weather on TV and calling the Weather Bureau to listen to their recorded message. May I add I knew the time of day they actually changed the message so I knew when to call in for the updated message... especially during the hurricane season when they would give information on far away vigorous tropical waves.

What is meteorology exactly? It's an obsessive field of study that there is no real cure for once you have been bitten. Not the most grammatically correct sentence but the most honest one that I could write. You study the weather and at some point you forecast the weather. Kind of like running in the house screaming "Mommy it's gonna rain any minute" at the age of 5 years old and being more often than not right on the money. Fast forward to my daughter doesn't have pay attention to the Weather App on her phone "because my mother ...." which shows more a tremendous faith in her mother's ability to take time away from doing whatever to text her and tell her there is a tornado warning in South Florida. (This is a true story) Or you get an angry WhatsApp message from another daughter who wants to know why you did not warn her there would be thunderstorms in NYC. (Sometimes Mommy gets distracted and forgets to send a WhatsApp message. And then there are times when your younger children begin sending you live video on Snapchat while driving through a Tornadic storm in South Florida showing you rotation off in the distance when you realize your children have been bitten by the love of meteorology.

This discussion comes up online every May or June when people who love meteorology become obsessed with kvetching, whining, complaining and arguing about terminology because there is no real tropical weather going on to talk about during that time period. Once there are named storms traveling along across the tropical basin this begins to take a back seat to real in depth weather discussion. Note some people fear hurricanes vs love them yet once bit they watch them carefully and look online for an early heads up tip that something may be brewing.

So let's back up a bit. One day while watching the weather on Channel 4 in Miami they announced proudly that Weave the Weatherman had been given an honorary degree and became a member of the American Meteorological Association. While they were very excited I was very confused. Why did he need a degree or an award? I mean he was "Weaver the Weatherman" everyone knew that. It was explained to me by a friend who was a neighbor who worked at the National Hurricane Center that he knew weather but he didn't have a degree in meteorology even though he was a meteorologist. I believe his actual phrase was that "meteorology was the study of weather" and he may have used the word "love of weather" but nowhere did he use the word "obsession" though I do believe I figured that out over time.

So it's easy to say that Weaver was an professional meteorologist as he was being paid to forecast or explain or disseminate information regarding the weather. Note every city had their own "Weaver the Weatherman" and most did not start out with degrees in meteorology, but they were paid to be the weather expert on air. I was watching "Dr. George" on TV in the early 1980s when I lived there and paid more attention to geology than weather; again every meteorologist is a closet geologist and every geologist is a closet meteorologist in some way. Note none of the definitions shown above use the word degree as much as "education" "student" "observation" when defining a meteorologist. Degrees are respected but I have known several people who obtained degrees in meteorology who I wouldn't trust to tell me if it was or wasn't going to rain in the next 24 hours. A degree is an award given when you finish a program of study and it's very nice to have especially if you are looking for a job in the field of meteorology today.

There are a list of people without degrees who have made sizable contributions to the study of meteorology who I respect greatly and would pay attention to when they speak based on time, accuracy and their ability to convey the information and the forecast. Note the "forecast" is almost always written by the National Weather Service or the National Hurricane Center and rarely does a meteorologist working for the government or a network veer too far away from the official forecast. Online you will more often than not find someone who speaks up and says "that ain't happening" and that's usually someone like Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com or me or someone else online that can smell a bad forecast and isn't afraid to say it. Remember when the official forecast from the NHC on several advisories called for Hurricane Matthew to loop back and aim it's fury at South Florida a second time? A look back at my blog on Matthew shows the evolution of that forecast and at some point I refused to even show the cone beyond the more accurate and reliable 3 day cone. As an old boyfriend once said "you win some, you lose a lot" or something like that. No that was not happening and I was not going to pretend that it was happening.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/10/updated-10-pm-4-matthew-links-loops.html

Weather History was made when Bryan Norcross wasn't afraid to go with his gut and not accept the actual forecast from the NHC that Tropical Storm Andrew was most likely going to the Carolinas but when he was watching the Aviation Model that showed another scenario and he wasn't afraid to show the Door #3 scenario that Andrew might not catch the trof. Last year thousands of people sat up through the night watching Mike talk on Facebook Live during the last hurricane season. Over the years more people than I can even count have paid attention to Jim Williams from www.hurricanecity.com who is a master at the study of tropical meteorology in the Atlantic Basin give his facts, thoughts and opinions on a vigorous tropical wave in the Atlantic. Jim's work is quoted by many in the media and he is a popular guest on panels discussing hurricanes.

Jim and I argue the point often but in my mind he is a meteorologist without a degree and that is most likely why he was asked to be a part of this panel with Max Mayfield and other meteorologists talking about hurricanes. The degree is not as important as his work educating and explaining to people information about hurricane history. I've been asked to speak on hurricanes on panels as well as even being a Keynote Speaker at a Convention on the subject of hurricanes. Am I an amateur meteorologist or a professional meteorologist or simply someone well trusted who often entertains while explaining the weather? I consider myself a Weather Historian and I write a blog so I am a Blogger. I've been paid for my writing I am a professional writer.

Jim Cantore is out on the Plains today ... OKC to Kansas is under the gun from severe weather and most likely tornadoes. Jim Cantore is often a bearer of bad news but a good indicator of where the weather is about to happen. A cold front is moving down clashing with warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico that will create the perfect recipe for TWC to be on air most of the day and night discussing weather vs showing old episodes of how someone on a boat survived a hurricane. Today is a big weather day. The models........have been screaming for trouble and storm chasers who chase Twisters are out on the Plains chasing.  Hurricane Season is a solid month away and yet the current set up allows for the possibility of something forming at the tail end of dangling, dead cold fronts that are still making their way down to Florida or dying trying. It's just the way it goes and whether you are ready or not the 2018 Hurricane Season is almost here. Now is the time to look through your supplies of non-perishables and batteries and argue with your partner whether you do or don't need a generator. If you see water on sale buy it now and store it somewhere if you have the storage space. 

http://www.flash.org/hurricanestrong/

I'm not going to argue the value of models as they are very valuable, however not always reliable and always changing in response to the actual weather that is happening and as weather is fluid not stable weather and models will always change in real time. Never be a slave to the models but do not ignore them either. And, if the weather bug bites you it most likely will bite some of your children. 

Whether it's the Twister in the Wizard of Oz or seeing Jamaican Tall Coconut Palms that were 4 stories high knocked down like they were made from Lego .... you end up entranced by the weather. And lastly I will say there are some people online who use monikers that sound funny like "Cranky Weatherman" and I don't ask them why they call themselves that or what their degrees are or where they studied weather... I follow them and pay attention to them because I know they know weather and they are extremely valuable in our weather community.

What is in a name?

We've been debating that since the days of William Shakespeare and probably going all the way back to the first time someone noticed a cave person drew a picture of the sun on the wall of the cave even if there was no one to send a "snap" of it to their friends! I'll follow Mike and Jim and Cranky anywhere and obviously I have and will continue doing so .... and anyone who pops up along the way who is reliable and an excellent read in the realm of weather forecasting as it relates to hurricanes and whatever other weather is happening. Weather is always happening somewhere and soon tropical weather will be happening as it's only a matter of time. The "High" sets up and the May Monsoons begin and as long as there are fronts moving down towards Florida lingering in the Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas there is the potential for early tropical trouble.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm

Ps. I am considered a #Longread but not always but today called for an old fashioned long read weather blog post! Note the song shown above is called "Truly Madly Deeply" but it is most often searched for by the terms "I wanna stand with you on the mountain" so yah.... what is in a name?

Harvey in the GOM, FLOODING EVEN WAY IN LAND Likely ... Recon Going In Today. 92L ... New Wave Over Africa. Slow Moving Harvey... Buy Storm Supplies Now... Cantore on the Way... And Where Cantore Goes Storm Chasers Follow

Our systems below 

8 AM from the NHC

Let's look at the detail.

The devil is likely in the details.

Actual discussion blown up.

Excellent thoughts regarding the outcome.

Yes I am following him now..

Note that regardless of what happens in the long term with Harvey (regarding intensity) the flooding problem across a wide area is the biggest concern currently. Why? Because it is forecast to intensify, wrap, come together close in near the coastline over very warm water. That means there are a few problems.

1) Short lead time before actual landfall and possible landfall effects.

2) Low confidence in modeling forecasting with regard to intensity forecasting.

3) It has not formed yet so the point of formation may be off in models.

4) If the point of formation is off then track is off... it begins with the center.

5) Is there a center or is it a wave with an odd axis still not ready for prime time?

6) This is akin to doing IMPROV and forecasters like a script vs making it up as they go.

7) The RAIN is the SAME unless it really intensifies. Heavy Rain = Flooding.

8) Steering currents that crap out when you need them. No Steering currents - BIG FLOODING.

9) Warm water beneath the system.

10) Are the pumps working in Nola? Probably not. Landfall could be way west, flooding east.

This is a dire situation and one not to make jokes about and trust me if you read my Twitter Feed this morning while waiting impatiently for the NHC to put out their 8 AM product you'd know I joke around often. In truth this is potentially a seriously situation and likely to cause massive flooding somewhere. 

Houston knows better than anyone how bad flooding can be from a weak storm (Allison and Alicia come to mind) so it's time to think seriously on how you might handle several days of flooding rain and the impacts. 

So let me put this out there, it doesn't cost a fortune to buy hurricane supplies. And they should be called STORM SUPPLIES and you need them for a long, wet, tropical storm as well. There is a misnomer that its a lot of money and nothing may happen. In reality unless you go hog wild buying cookies you want an excuse to eat, most hurricane supplies are what you need everyday. That is the issue here... Toilet Paper, crackers, peanut butter, medicines you take every day, diapers for the baby, diapers for the old people, baby wipes to clean everything because the water may be contaminated, crayons and coloring books for the kids cause the iPad is no longer going to be their best friend for a week. Almost everything you put in your kit is stuff you can and will use. Bleach... pretty basic. And except possibly for formula everything can be bought at your l local Dollar Store. Really Hurricane Season is a good excuse to think on nursing your next baby! Yes I said that, it's one thing you'll never have to worry on buying. Knabb keeps talking on spaghetti but trust me unless you have a really good grill with a burner and lots of propane you might want to forget about it. In Texas they probably have them so sure go for the pasta solution but it's a pain in the ass to make on a grill, to drain...then clean up the mess with no water and a poor use of water if you're low on water. I'd stick with dry cereal, little boxes of milk or soy milk and slowly start grilling everything in the freezer. After Wilma we grilled a frozen turkey over a fire made from coral rocks in the driveway and fed half the neighborhood... also kept the teenagers busy getting the coral rock grill going ...

This mess may happen without it becoming a hurricane, however some models take it way up into hurricane territory. Ironically if it did wrap some and come together it would be worse over a smaller area and potentially not as bad over a wider area. Large, messy tropical storms are a mess and what starts in Texas does not stay in Texas but moves East and upstream inland towards Louisiana and Mississippi and worrying on those broken pumps in Nola is painful to even think on. After Katrina this should not be an issue... even before Katrina we knew it was a problem, but after knowing it happened and seeing it happening and living through that nightmare how any city government can ever excuse it happening again is beyond me. Kansas City has had flooding most of the summer off and on and so has Mississippi so why wouldn't it continue until the weather patterns change and we are currently stuck on "hold" regarding steering currents.

As for 92L our long tracking, under performing tropical Invest ... it's hard to say. As I showed yesterday Harvey's weak outflow is hindering it's development as is the Upper Level Low that will not get off it's back and models do funky, odd things with it. Let's pretend Ginger goes off on a 3 day cruise and comes back looking like Nana from Zola and it ends up not such a comedy. Feel free to Google that if you studied accounting or engineering vs Literature in college. Hopefully it will go out to sea and not cause more flooding misery in the Carolinas... as the Carolinas want cooler days and dry weather. Time will tell..

Models below...

The NHC is going sticking with their formation zone.

Note it's NOT in the GOM.

They could change that...

...but probably won't.

Whatever begins in GOM...

...may end up off FL coast..

and end up East of the Carolinas.

Amazingly Harvey may follow "Irma" out to sea.

Eventually.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=

2017082300&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=0

Note the formation of ?? Irma is still down the road, even further down the road than the formation of Harvey that is imminent. Advisories will be up later today around 11 AM. I will update this afternoon after models are updated AND the advisories are out as I have an appointment to be at and a package to pick up at the post office.......... 

nhc.noaa.gov and http://spaghettimodels.com/ 

Please check regularly with the NHC for their updated package regarding potential tropical cyclone or TS or TD Harvey if Recon is able to close off a center.

Either way the problem with the models is that intensity forecasting is not their sweet spot. They often either under perform or wildly go overboard. Models suggest over a foot of rain in many areas and one model puts out a crazy "build an ark" scenario of 18 inches of rain... and talking about areas prone to flooding such as the Bayou (pretty word for SWAMP) city Houston and New Orleans with it's broken pumps. 

And remember when making jokes on the GFS..

...it did pin point where Invest 92L is now.

And that end game may still verify.

Going out to do somethings while I can before it gets busier. Looking forward to that cold front in the Carolinas, however that front is in the Carolinas not Texas and the steering currents be real weak... so until they get their act together both Harvey and 92L will dawdle round doing their thing on their own time line while forecasters across the SE feel the need to pull their hair out. Oh and trackers and on air mets are on their way to Texas for coverage of Harvey and landfall.

Besos BobbiStorm
@Bobbistorm on Twitter.

PS... for those long reader types who made it all the way down here... there is a wave off of Africa. This is the pic I call the Tropic of Cancer image. You can see Harvey trying to close off and you can see the wave near Africa currently being ignored by the NHC however the models are having fun with it... so soon we should have an Invest there as well. I know St. Peter says never say "should" but since when do I listen to St. Pete? Huh?

UPDATED!! Cantore in Raleigh. Winter Storm Warnings. This IS Happening. Southern Snow Storm.

Getting closer.

Today has been a crazy day.

I had planned on updating however I had a relative who is okay in the hospital and who was released today so I was a bit distracted. All is good as they say. The shooting at FLL airport near where several of my kids live and use frequently took hours out of my day. Just a person who went "postal" or terrorism? Hard to say but we will know soon enough. What is upsetting and not so surprising is he was not shot or tackled but seems to have given himself up after running out of ammo. So now we know how soft a target FLL really is as well as there maybe changes in security for baggage. Who knows on that one...

As for the Winter Storm warning we had some sleet earlier that turned over to rain and the snow line is close to where I live. Going into Shabbos here so having friends from Canada who live nearby for dinner, they will walk home in snow most likely. 

I went to the convenience store for something special today and teased the owner if he is opening tomorrow. He smiled, looked up at the sky and said "much snow, no guarantee!!" And that seems to be the way it goes here in the Raleigh Triangle. 

I'll be online Saturday at sundown and we will see just how much snow Raleigh actually got, as well as snow reports from other places and my thoughts on the Winter Storm of 2017!

***

Compare and contrast with the earlier radar...

The snow is so close as it slides West to East towards Carolina.

Notice how perfectly it blankets Tennessee.

I've always said NC is really Eastern Tennessee.

This is what I woke up to this morning.

Delta, SW, American all fixing travel problems.

Pretty sure that includes other airlines as well.

It seems weather is never political.

The first test of our new governor is WEATHER.

And for a place that gets snow storms and hurricanes its logical.

Happens in January. More inaugural events put on hold.

My first introduction to Governor Perdue was a snow storm.

I will be mostly discussing Raleigh today.

Yes I'm here and it's Ground Zero for this Winter Storm.

Seems Cantore is in town as well...

Oh my...that moment you realize this IS happening.

Yeah this IS happening.

So I am going to go a bit long here in discussion and short on graphics and weather loops. There will be time to update later today with good satellite imagery. Now is the time to get the message across to people who live in parts of the South that are being impacted directly by this winter storm. Note some areas along the Gulf Coast may be dealing with Ice as they are having freezing rain.

Note the warnings down in Louisiana and Mississippi.

http://www.weather.gov/

Check your specific town.

The main problem here is two fold. One is the possibility of HIGH snow totals in areas that are not used to that much snow. Not because people in the South are "dumb" or "ignorant" of how snow works but because we do not have the infrastructure to handle such an event. So how that plays out is the Governors try their best to keep the main highways plowed and then if and when that is under control they move on to the secondary roads and well for people living in suburbia you hopefully have skis or sleds. Because here in Raleigh where we have little cul de sacs and roads with steep inclines it's going to feel more like a village in Switzerland somewhere than the land of magnolias and tupelo honey if you get my snow drift. We don't get deep snow often that accumulates, nor do we get frigid temperatures that keep it on the ground. Normally it snows, it accumulates a little and the next day it melts. This is SNOW plus Single Digit Temperatures.

STAY OFF THE ROADS! And I mean as soon as possible.  I really hope government jobs are letting people go home early because if everyone leaves downtown Raleigh and NC State at the same time at 5 PM and the system comes in earlier than expected you WILL see more of those iconic "OH MY GOD IT SNOWED IN RALEIGH!!!" pictures.

I say this as the huge traffic jam that occurred the last time we thought the snow was coming in after dark it came in earlier and the rain to sleet to snow storm occurred earlier and my friend from New England who figured she was used to snow was not a match for the steep hill near North Hills and spent hours trying to get home with kids in her car. Snow just doesn't translate as well to this neck of the woods. And yet it's beautiful and gets less dirty and yucky as it does up in the Northern cities and our big tall dark green Southern pines show off beautifully against the white, heavy snow.

So if you haven't been to the store you can try and make that run for another loaf of bread but I doubt they have any left. It took me a long time to figure out why people buy milk here for a snow storm. Coming from Miami we don't buy milk for hurricanes so buying milk before a Natural Weather Disaster seems a bit crazy. My Yankee husband explained to me if the power goes out you stick it in the garage or on the deck. Oh..........right... kind of like living in Siberia where they freeze the milk into wheels leaned against the barn. This really is NOT the Deep South. And it's called NORTH Carolina for a reason.

So ....

1. Get home, hunker down and stay off the roads. Do not make one last run for more pizza or Chik-fil-A really. Gather your troops, kids, friends, pets and hunker down. That said this was a great tweet and so true as power could go out you may want to get some books. You remember books right? The kind you turn the pages and read while lying in bed under multiple blankets.

2. As the temperatures are predicted to be down closer to zero than 32 degrees the snow may stay on the ground for a long time. If you live on a cute little road off the main road you may not be driving anywhere anytime soon. You may want to make a run to the library for a book or two.

3. Make sure you have medication for the next week (worst case scenario) and candles used properly if you aren't the romantic type and not sure how to use them. If you are not a smoker make sure you pick up matches. Do not waste your phone battery by using the flashlight app that is what a real flashlight is for (note to me to check my flashlights...) As for medication you may be able to get to the store when it opens but the trucks may not be able to get there as fast if highways are closed in places to restock the pharmacy. 

4. Keep your phones fully charged at all times. Keep them plugged in as much as possible. That goes for your child's iPad or his Doki watch. Snow storms do sometimes have power outages and people who were sure they could make it to the store for something often get into accidents and hit power poles taking out the whole subdivision when the transformer at the end of the block goes down.  See number 1 and stay home and do not be that person.

5. Take some pictures, enjoy the drama and the moment in time when Raleigh had a gigantic snow storm and well you can always blame it on Jim Cantore!

Stay tuned... going out one more time myself while the weather is a nice balmy 39 degrees because it won't be 39 degrees again until Tuesday if the weather models are correct. Models are the date we take to the prom and climo is the pattern that is almost always right but weather like snow falling, fast happens in real time. Only in the rear view mirror are we sure what happened!

As always time will tell... 

I'll update later today with more information so check back later.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Cantore mentioned something you aren't hearing much about. Along the coast near OBX up to Norfolk they may have blizzard like conditions with high winds.