A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, October 10, 2017
TS Ophelia ... ULL/Wave Close In.. FIRES California and Tropical Waves
Again Ophelia is far to the right.
Not the system closer to the Bahamas.
Ophelia is closer to Africa...
...headed towards the Azores.
But hey... we are closer to the Bahamas so..
..we be watching that Upper Level Low spin.
Hard not to watch it.
Some thoughts below.
Always good thoughts.
Weather.. strong weather.
Dirty side of the ULL usually is dirty
(messy)
Tropical Storm Ophelia is spinning, slowly intensifying out over the distant Atlantic closer to Africa than the system not forecast to develop East of the Bahamas. That's called "foreshadowing" in creative writing... just so you know. Keeping this short this morning because I'm on the road and not much to say. It's hard not to notice it....
Ophelia is still forecast to become a hurricane and it will make an impact on Europe in the not so distant future. If Ophelia becomes a hurricane it will continue the hurricane streak we got going this year that is breaking all records.
Note from the NHC discussion above.
And see where Ophelia goes eventually below...
Coming back to our side of the world
There's also a tropical wave...
..messing with PR again sadly.
There is a system East of Florida that is mostly an ULL with a great deal of convection trying to wrap itself inside of it... however.....there is strong shear in the area keeping it a wet nuisance for now. So keep it in mind as shear often comes and goes and there is always the possibility that after it travels across Florida it can get into a friendlier environment in the Gulf of Mexico. I'm just putting it out there as a "random possibility" as models have been hinting and when I say models I mean a few of the EURO ensemble members have brought this suggestion up in their morning board meeting. Stay tuned. Never turn your back on any area of convection that persists and spins this particular hurricane season.
The real "weather" story today has turned from the tropics to the fires in California. Go figure right? The tropics suddenly give us a break and fire breaks out in California and Santa Ana winds feed the flames... whipping them up wildly. You have to understand the Santa Ana winds are close to tropical storm force and they take flames and scatter them about faster than I can type... and I type fast. Add into the mix the chaparral that covers the mountainside is a plant with a very high oil content that tends to explode the moment a spark lands on it and it literally becomes a burning bush that explodes and strong winds take those embers miles away landing onto another bush that explodes. It's a recipe for disaster in a dry summer and they have had a dry summer. We are talking about small neighborhoods close in not out in the canyons somewhere but populated areas. A Hilton Hotel burned down as well as many large civic buildings as well as homes, stores and the death toll is climbing as I type this...
So ... keep giving the American Red Cross because America seems to be under siege this year from Mother Nature who seems hellbent to cause misery and disaster everywhere.
I'm on the road Southbound staying in Northeast Florida enjoying the sun on the water and the waves .... and the sunrise and basically I am in beach heaven this morning. It's a nice way to start the day watching the sunrise over the ocean. And then we hit the road again.... Southbound.
I'll update later today if anything pops up but it may take a while. The fastest way to get updates is to use Twitter and add me as I update in real time when something is going on...
Be well, be happy and be safe.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps Check out Mike on Facebook Live as I'm sure he's talking about that Bahama ULL as well as whatever comes into Mike's mind ;)
Harvey in the GOM, FLOODING EVEN WAY IN LAND Likely ... Recon Going In Today. 92L ... New Wave Over Africa. Slow Moving Harvey... Buy Storm Supplies Now... Cantore on the Way... And Where Cantore Goes Storm Chasers Follow
Our systems below
8 AM from the NHC
Let's look at the detail.
The devil is likely in the details.
Actual discussion blown up.
Excellent thoughts regarding the outcome.
Yes I am following him now..
Note that regardless of what happens in the long term with Harvey (regarding intensity) the flooding problem across a wide area is the biggest concern currently. Why? Because it is forecast to intensify, wrap, come together close in near the coastline over very warm water. That means there are a few problems.
1) Short lead time before actual landfall and possible landfall effects.
2) Low confidence in modeling forecasting with regard to intensity forecasting.
3) It has not formed yet so the point of formation may be off in models.
4) If the point of formation is off then track is off... it begins with the center.
5) Is there a center or is it a wave with an odd axis still not ready for prime time?
6) This is akin to doing IMPROV and forecasters like a script vs making it up as they go.
7) The RAIN is the SAME unless it really intensifies. Heavy Rain = Flooding.
8) Steering currents that crap out when you need them. No Steering currents - BIG FLOODING.
9) Warm water beneath the system.
10) Are the pumps working in Nola? Probably not. Landfall could be way west, flooding east.
This is a dire situation and one not to make jokes about and trust me if you read my Twitter Feed this morning while waiting impatiently for the NHC to put out their 8 AM product you'd know I joke around often. In truth this is potentially a seriously situation and likely to cause massive flooding somewhere.
Houston knows better than anyone how bad flooding can be from a weak storm (Allison and Alicia come to mind) so it's time to think seriously on how you might handle several days of flooding rain and the impacts.
So let me put this out there, it doesn't cost a fortune to buy hurricane supplies. And they should be called STORM SUPPLIES and you need them for a long, wet, tropical storm as well. There is a misnomer that its a lot of money and nothing may happen. In reality unless you go hog wild buying cookies you want an excuse to eat, most hurricane supplies are what you need everyday. That is the issue here... Toilet Paper, crackers, peanut butter, medicines you take every day, diapers for the baby, diapers for the old people, baby wipes to clean everything because the water may be contaminated, crayons and coloring books for the kids cause the iPad is no longer going to be their best friend for a week. Almost everything you put in your kit is stuff you can and will use. Bleach... pretty basic. And except possibly for formula everything can be bought at your l local Dollar Store. Really Hurricane Season is a good excuse to think on nursing your next baby! Yes I said that, it's one thing you'll never have to worry on buying. Knabb keeps talking on spaghetti but trust me unless you have a really good grill with a burner and lots of propane you might want to forget about it. In Texas they probably have them so sure go for the pasta solution but it's a pain in the ass to make on a grill, to drain...then clean up the mess with no water and a poor use of water if you're low on water. I'd stick with dry cereal, little boxes of milk or soy milk and slowly start grilling everything in the freezer. After Wilma we grilled a frozen turkey over a fire made from coral rocks in the driveway and fed half the neighborhood... also kept the teenagers busy getting the coral rock grill going ...
This mess may happen without it becoming a hurricane, however some models take it way up into hurricane territory. Ironically if it did wrap some and come together it would be worse over a smaller area and potentially not as bad over a wider area. Large, messy tropical storms are a mess and what starts in Texas does not stay in Texas but moves East and upstream inland towards Louisiana and Mississippi and worrying on those broken pumps in Nola is painful to even think on. After Katrina this should not be an issue... even before Katrina we knew it was a problem, but after knowing it happened and seeing it happening and living through that nightmare how any city government can ever excuse it happening again is beyond me. Kansas City has had flooding most of the summer off and on and so has Mississippi so why wouldn't it continue until the weather patterns change and we are currently stuck on "hold" regarding steering currents.
As for 92L our long tracking, under performing tropical Invest ... it's hard to say. As I showed yesterday Harvey's weak outflow is hindering it's development as is the Upper Level Low that will not get off it's back and models do funky, odd things with it. Let's pretend Ginger goes off on a 3 day cruise and comes back looking like Nana from Zola and it ends up not such a comedy. Feel free to Google that if you studied accounting or engineering vs Literature in college. Hopefully it will go out to sea and not cause more flooding misery in the Carolinas... as the Carolinas want cooler days and dry weather. Time will tell..
Models below...
The NHC is going sticking with their formation zone.
Note the formation of ?? Irma is still down the road, even further down the road than the formation of Harvey that is imminent. Advisories will be up later today around 11 AM. I will update this afternoon after models are updated AND the advisories are out as I have an appointment to be at and a package to pick up at the post office..........
Please check regularly with the NHC for their updated package regarding potential tropical cyclone or TS or TD Harvey if Recon is able to close off a center.
Either way the problem with the models is that intensity forecasting is not their sweet spot. They often either under perform or wildly go overboard. Models suggest over a foot of rain in many areas and one model puts out a crazy "build an ark" scenario of 18 inches of rain... and talking about areas prone to flooding such as the Bayou (pretty word for SWAMP) city Houston and New Orleans with it's broken pumps.
And remember when making jokes on the GFS..
...it did pin point where Invest 92L is now.
And that end game may still verify.
Going out to do somethings while I can before it gets busier. Looking forward to that cold front in the Carolinas, however that front is in the Carolinas not Texas and the steering currents be real weak... so until they get their act together both Harvey and 92L will dawdle round doing their thing on their own time line while forecasters across the SE feel the need to pull their hair out. Oh and trackers and on air mets are on their way to Texas for coverage of Harvey and landfall.
Besos BobbiStorm
@Bobbistorm on Twitter.
PS... for those long reader types who made it all the way down here... there is a wave off of Africa. This is the pic I call the Tropic of Cancer image. You can see Harvey trying to close off and you can see the wave near Africa currently being ignored by the NHC however the models are having fun with it... so soon we should have an Invest there as well. I know St. Peter says never say "should" but since when do I listen to St. Pete? Huh?
Updated! PTC9 FORMS ... Race For the Name Harvey... Waiting on Recon. 3 Waves & An Area Near the Windward Passage Consisting of a Tropical Wave & ULL Anchored There ... The Road Ahead
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forms From 91L Forecast to become Harvey
Cone:
Take the time to read the discussion as it's well put together and explains the problems and potential of Tropical Storm Harvey.
Watches and warnings.
An example being their main models do not keep this feature and loses it in the Caribbean. However other modeling packages develop it into a hurricane and show other possible solutions. The NHC is walking a delicate line here and they can pencil things in now and outline then in bold marker later in the week. For now watches and warnings are up.
Good discussion out of NHC doing a good job giving the Islands heads up as PTC9 is forecast to become Tropical Storm Harvey and Hurricane Harvey further down the road. Based on satellite imagery and various products the NHC uses in addition to Hurricane Recon they have upgraded this wave to post watches and warnings for the places in it's path. As I said earlier and further down in this post the satellite presentation of 91L really showed it's potential. The image the NHC posted a short while ago before the upgrade.
Also you can see the "roll" going here below.
Worth taking a look at cities possibly in the path of TD9 forecast to be TS Harvey. That's a lot of cities spread throughout the Caribbean into Central America and Mexico. And might note includes places in Cuba on the North side of the cone. So pay attention over time as these change and the track becomes more firmed up.
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
Please keep reading if you have not. The Red Circle AKA Mustang Convertible definitely was worth getting the expected upgrade. The fact that they put it out before Recon is because they can as we now have Potential Tropical Cyclones (good idea if you are in the path) and as I have said on Twitter it is moving very rapidly West making a bee line for the Islands now already given an official heads up.
The big round circle is NOT PTC9
Also notice the stalled out front.
Tropical Wave and ULL
Then PTC9 aka Harvey and 92L waiting it's turn.
You can see 92L below in the blue line..
..up in the upper right tracks for Harvey.
What will be with 92L and the wave behind it? Good question. Note we are now discussing it on Twitter and it needs to be watched. On one hand it will help steer and shear 92L but it could also become a home grown problem for someone. It's so big it almost eclipses "Harvey"
Highlighted system of the day.
91L
90% chances for development.
Gets a visit from recon.
Harvey?
Goldilocks has escaped the 3 bears.
Cat 2 hurricane. Impressive late life.
Back at the tropical ranch...
Sticking with 91L currently.
And the color scheme of the day.
Yellow, Orange, Red.
You can see 91L leading the way.
92L following.
Recon it seems is going in today. No recon for Gert. But 91L headed into the Islands gets recon. What seems to be destined to be Harvey is getting a visit from recon today so it better put on it's best dancing shoes as we know they can be hard to please sometimes. And then sometimes not. TD4 found no love from the NHC. Will they give 91L the H name and put up cones for the Islands? Stay tuned.... I'll update in real time later today.
Let me introduce the players here.
Lead wave is 91L with a 90% chance of forming after the NHC looked at First Morning Visible. Definitely deserves capital letters, it's a THING. That's about as good as it gets with the NHC so we are obviously waiting on recon to make this call. It is forecast to form by a consensus of models but nothing big currently is forecast to happen. Another low rider, west bound into the Caribbean. Usually the Caribbean is dry and inhospitable but not this time of year. Things are not forming there, that's interesting to note, however they are cruising in and sometimes moving on straight into the Pacific. We are not expecting Harvey to be wild, but who knows down the tropical road. Just to get a name and a cone is pretty big so keep watching. I will say something for 91L it knew to take the low road, well traveled road and avoid the shear in the Atlantic so that's impressive. There's whispers it can eventually go where Franklin went before. Keep watching.
Behind 91L is 92L visible above but SAL is taking a bit of a bite out of 92L. 91L was born in easier times with less Sal about and you can see the difference. Below you can see Gert going to England to see the Queen while she's still in charge. A large convective mass that steals your attention around PR that we are ignoring for now. You can see small, well built 91L moving west and 92L on a sort of leash behind him but having problems following his lead. The real race here is for the name Irma not Harvey. The African wave that has not yet been designated 93L but will most likely be when they write Gert off could get the name and 92L could stay weak battling the area of convection and shear we are ignoring. Isn't ignorant bliss? Or not.. You can also see a front moving East across the United States and far to the North an even more impressive system is about to dip down that makes August feel more like September. Bring it on I say. I can almost smell Pumpkin Spice Latte when I walk into Starbucks. Not I'm not a fan of the drink, but it's a good measure of time moving on in the corporate world in which we live. Kroger has lawn ghosts (I kid you not) outside by the curb... white Casper the Ghost like lawn statues and ceramic pumpkin plant holders. And we have Cabo Verde Waves waiting on recon... feels like September.
92L below up close and scared.
Note the SAL to the North of 92L
When it gets past the SAL...
... a wall of shear is waiting.
You wonder why 92L doesn't just tuck it's head down and try to follow 91L westbound. What's odd here is that in many years that is what happens. They follow each other especially when they are this close and already in the Central Atlantic. Far to the East it's typical for one to normally develop fast and be pulled NW early on while a lead weaker wave continues west. This is usually the pattern. The tracks the models are showing sort of fight the typical scenario but this year has been, like last year, a weird year. The same models that play down 92L were hyping 92L a few days ago, and that's worth remembering. What the models put out, they can change, rearrange at any given time. So for now it's best to watch the systems on satellite imagery and wait until they develop a closed core and get good recon from dropsondes giving us hopefully better model output.
Behind 92L is a system that could be 93L
You never know for sure til it is.
Home Grown sometimes pops up.
Steals the name and the game.
You can see above the area we are ignoring just north of Hispaniola, 91L headed West into the Caribbean, 92L a bit further North trying to take on the SAL and a low latitude large wave.
91L is red and headed west, 92L is orange and headed WNW and supposedly the unnamed wave that is yellow at the top of the screen will eventually head NW. I'm not ready to buy what will happen to that wave as it's a long time off and it's a large wave that might end up with multiple centers or poor alignment before it even tries riding a motorcycle after what could be Irma (92L) in a tropical storm. Just too many variables going on ...
As for the models I'd also like to wait a bit before going long on what will or won't happen. Nothing is happening over the next few days. So enjoy the weekend, work on your hurricane plan, enjoy the Eclipse and keep watching the tropics. Note discussion below showing the problems that the wave closest to Africa (the yellow circle for now) that most are expecting to be 93L eventually if nothing else steals that designation closer in. The NHC does not paint a pretty picture in the short term. Let's wait and see where things go with regard to the big, large, huge African wave. Again, small systems like 91L can go where larger systems cannot. They can spin up faster, maneuver and get a job done faster. Large, lumbering areas of convection are more like big trucks that take longer to turn and to develop.
Note the word usage.
ENGULFING.
Designation on hold for now.
Can change anytime.
Stay tuned.
The last player here is the area we are ignoring that's an odd mix in it's own way of characters. A real drama going on there much closer in than the African Wave. In this case I will quote the NHC below because it's complicated.
A diffluent flow pattern between an ULL ANCHORED over S Georgia and a low centered near the Windward Passage is creating what looks like one heck of a tropical wave about to become a tropical storm. Looks can be deceiving. It's pretty to watch. It's going to knock 92L out for a bit and exhaust it while it tries to move WNW towards the Caribbean, Florida, the Bahamas and possibly the Gulf of Mexico. Some models just kill 92L off from shear. Time will tell. The "Shear zone" or "wall of shear" are words you will hear yet remember that embedded in that mess we are ignoring is a tropical wave. Interesting to watch with so many other factors on the map. As for the models check out www.spaghettimodels.com because he specializes in the spaghetti models ;)
Again it's really too early to pay much attention to any of them other than 91L that is projected to become Tropical Storm Harvey if recon can find a west wind and strong enough wind speed. Oh look...here's an image from Earthnull below.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
