Updated! Yellow X over Africa in the 2 Day, Yellow Circle Near Africa in E ATL in 5 Day. Tropics Come Alive in Late August As Per Climo.

Thursday Morning Update.

Grid below tells the story for today.

This is the main story.

A less strong Lane moving towards Hawaii.

Rain from Lane will be the big story.

Rain and possibly flooding.

Also Lane is moving slow now.

So there will be a prolonged period of heavy rain.

Hawaii is not as used to rain as say Miami.

Both tropical cities but different in many ways.

Main point to remember about Lane.

It is NOT Hurricane Maria.

It is not going to slam Hawaii like PR.

It is going to make an impact.

Hawaii is much like Key West in ways.

If the stores sell out of supplies.

It takes a long time to resupply the stores.

It is an Island in the ocean.

That is why they are pressing people to stock up.

Even without a huge hit ...

...supplies of necessities will be limited for a while.

I'm going to keep this fairly simple this morning. The wave that has yet to exit off of Africa is a long term, long range threat nothing that is going to develop immediately. That said it may not develop at all but we are watching it and it's a good reminder that September is around the corner and better to shop now for basics you need in case of a hurricane than a day or two before. Looking at the images above you see the story, looking up close tells the story with more definition. Note the slow movement between forecast points in the image directly above showing the prolonged period of heavy, tropical rains areas of Hawaii will feel even while Lane is slowly decreasing in actual wind intensity. Luckily Lane is weakening and should be spared a total direct hit but any large slow moving hurricane needs to be watched carefully that has huge amounts of weather as did Hurricane Matthew that had problems pulling away and turning as fast as the NHC originally forecast it would and it did make landfall in South Carolina. The huge amount of rain it carried with it a long ways spread out over the Carolinas once again flooding out the same regions that Hurricane Floyd swamped with rain. Different geography there as coastal Carolinas is a mix of marsh, swamp and river flood basins. Hawaii has mountains, hills and areas where the water can race down the hillside taking out major roads needed to resupply local stores. Something to think on...

At the most they will expect strong Tropical Storm force conditions.

Wet, strong Tropical Storm with huge rain totals.

A gusts to hurricane force possible.

As for the Wave near Africa.

Chances are down to 10%

Why? 

1 models likes it.

The other model does not like it.

GFS pulled it's support.

Euro hung with it.

It's a long term wait and see what happens.

One possible scenario is shown below.

www.crownweather.com

They are a pay per service and they are good.

They also Tweet often so you can get good info there.

One train of thought is the wave develops closer in...

...down the tropical road.

Some models suggest goes W gets into GOM

Other models suggest it moves up along the E Coast.

Keep watching.

Sadly some of the sites we use are still down :(

Notice the red print at the top of the image above.

They are working on it.

Getting most back online.

Stay tuned I'll update later in the day with more information.

Until then.

We do what we got to do.

Gone but not forgotten........

I'll admit I love that they upgraded the satellites yet they pulled the old ones that worked always and forever without ever a problem and now the new satellites do not work as well and when they go down you are stuck with broken links and half usable loops that make your eyes blurry and well it's annoying. I liked the old WV satellite loops. I want them back. It's not happening. It will never be the same I know, it' changes and things evolve and you got to get with the program but you got to fix what's broken.  As for me I'm high on weather and satellite loops and talking about weather with my friends and I'm trying not to be negative so going to go out and get some fresh air. I'm going to turn the music up and dance and get exercise and happy and I'll be back later.......  later gator.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Wednesday Blog if you haven't read it.
Keep reading.
Or heck read it anyway :)

First we have a yellow x in the 2 Day Forecast.

The X is over Africa as the wave has not yet come off.

The 2 day above.

The five day has a yellow circle where something could form.

Low chances now so we will wait and see.

But it's the first time in a while we see...

...an X or circle over by Africa.

You can see the wave train I spoke about earlier today.

There is a sense of a spin there currently.

T

The satellite sites were having problems earlier today.

They are up but not 100% ready for prime time.

At least they are up and working.

Some things to think on.

Note the comment about the outage I mentioned today.

On Mike's www.spaghettimodels.com you can scroll down.

Hurricane Lane is at the top, keep scrolling down.

Areas highlighted that the NHC has put in yellow.

I also want to show you the SAL view.

Stretched thin.

Apparently SAL has to go back to school in September.

No more summer vacation in the East Atlantic.

Kind of on it's last legs, finally.

There have been many long range models, very long range models, that show something developing in this region and being a player down the road. Nothing WOW yet but something to make you raise your eye brows some. This is as expected as expected can be as we move towards Labor Day Weekend and the beginning of September. We watch Africa for any signs of vorticity because when a tropical wave comes off that has it's own small low embedded in it ... it has a higher chance for developing than when it comes off with a huge amount of convection but no "there" there.

Time to start paying attention.

As for Hurricane Lane it is trending towards the left.

That would be better for Hawaii.

Meanwhile they need to prepare in case it trends right.

This may or may not work.

It's a now live feed going into Lane by Recon.

Video of #NOAA42 entering the eye #HurricaneLane during the 4PM HST mission. The storm was near its peak intensity, a Category 5, at this point.  Taken by L. Bucci. pic.twitter.com/TTTzM23xwy

— HRD/AOML/NOAA (@HRD_AOML_NOAA) August 22, 2018

Stay tuned for more information later today. Also check out the previous blog post on our very strong Category 4 Hurricane Lane in the Pacific and some discussion on how Hurricane Recon began.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/08/hurricane-lane-will-it-or-wont-it-hit.html

Alberto Flying the Flag of Subtropical Storm For Now... Recon Going In... Models.. Watches, Warnings and Welcome to the Hurricane Season 2018

Watches and warnings. 

Yes... watches up for the New Orleans area...

...all the way to the Florida Panhandle.

Closed circulation.

90L got a name....

There is so much to talk about today regarding Alberto and yet much of what is said today may change drastically over the next few days before Alberto makes landfall along the Gulf Coast. Facts that we know so far are shown below:

Alberto exists and advisories were begun by the NHC.
A cone for Alberto exists.
Alberto is currently Subtropical but may become Tropical closer to land.
Alberto is still close to land, that land being the Yucatan.
Shear is strong blowing convection off to the right away from the center.
There are multiple small vortexes in Alberto near the center.
The water is warm enough to sustain a 40 MPH Subtropical Storm.
The water up in the Gulf of Mexico is warmer.
The water close in to land known as "shelf water" is much warmer.
There are no strong fronts dipping down to grab this storm.
There is a strong High Pressure Ridge to the East over Florida.
That ridge may continue to push West helping nudge Alberto to the left at landfall.
A mid to upper level low is forecast to strengthen in the GOM.
The High and the Upper Mid Level Low are the basic steering currents as of now.
Things change often.
Recon is in the storm and that data will be used in the next few model runs.
We will know Saturday Night and Sunday Morning exactly what will or won't be.
Right now we have lots of facts and good satellite imagery and forecast models.

Some models and past weather history show that Alberto could become a Hurricane just prior to land fall and that needs to be paid attention to closely. It might not but it's on the table...

Speaking of Models.

Euro

GFS

They are close.

Time will tell.

Some of the models do strange things most likely based on a weaker storm battling shear and weak steering currents. Some take it further right on landfall, others take it further east at landfall. The real deal will show it's hand later in the next 36 hours as Alberto shows what it's got currently hidden half on land and half off down by the Yucatan. The NHC has put out the cone shown below. Again remember weather is far removed from the center so be aware everywhere from Florida to Louisiana and then further inland can and will get weather from Alberto.

Everywhere in the orange that I drew...

...could get strong weather.

The salient part of the cone is shown below.

Note timing here may change.

Expect surprises and changes to happen.

Timing and intensity need to be watched.

Alberto could slow down and wander.

Or Alberto could speed up.

Will Alberto wander over warmer water?

Or will Alberto wander over colder water?

Will Alberto follow the yellow orange brick road?

The NHC puts out a great product these days.

Read it carefully it is shown below:

There are many cities that need to watch Alberto.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/251444.shtml

The link above shows all the places that had even small percentages from Miami to New Orleans. Many within the area inside the cone have the highest percentage and will be under watches and warnings.

What do I think? I think it's probable that Alberto will become a full fledged Tropical Storm and I think it's possible that it intensifies close to land if the forecasts for the shear to lessen are correct. History has shown us messy Subtropical Storms often transform before our eyes just hours away from landfall. I think we should err on the side of caution and expect Alberto to intensify (even possibly to hurricane strength) but hopefully it will not do so. I think we need to take it seriously and I believe we will see some surprises along the way. There is a small chance of tornadoes over Florida as it slides by depending on how close it and it's associated weather gets to Florida. There is the danger of rip tides that needs to be taken very seriously. 

Last week in Myrtle Beach there were crashing waves and a bit of a rip tide and I saw a mother holding an infant dangling her feet in at the edge of the water while her other daughter who didn't look 2 years old ran back and forth in circles next to her. A strong wave slammed ashore and knocked the little girl off her feet. The little girl was terrified thrashing about in wild surf but just at the edge of the water. The mother ran with the infant in one hand towards the little girl and with the other hand pulling her to safety. The father who was further out walked over to help. I was aghast. I just stared wondering what they were thinking. Were they from that area or some place inland clueless how individual waves can crash faster and harder than expected and suddenly tug at anything in it's path pulling them out to sea? Had the rip tide been stronger it might not have ended as well as it did. What upset me the most is a few weeks ago a 4 year old child visiting the Outer Banks from Up North somewhere.... died when he was swept out to sea from a not so strong wave that crashed at the water's edge as he was walking holding his mother's hand. Perhaps she was not used to the intensity of the wind and the waves at the OBX but it was a horrible accident. Obviously the mother who was holding the infant over the water while letting her small little child run near by had not read that article or just simply thought she would be fine. Luckily the child in Myrtle Beach was fine, sadly the little four year old boy in the Outer Banks was not.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/04/30/

boy-swept-out-sea-drowned-body-found/564854002/

It's true I've taken my kids, even when they were small, to the ocean before a hurricane but we stood up on the boardwalk on Miami Beach watching the wind whip, the waves slam onto the beach and sea foam fly on the beach. We learned to respect the wind, the waves and hurricanes early on in Florida. Watch from a space place, but do not go walking at the water's edge with a toddler is my best advice. And, if you think you are a good swimmer now is not the time to show your girlfriend how far out you can swim. Obey the lifeguards and follow the rules. Stay safe.

And, this is why out of an abundance of caution it is better to warn the people in the path of Alberto as well as people visiting beaches such as Anna Maria Island near Tampa on Memorial Day Weekend that safety can be deceptive and an illusion when you are at the beach and a Subtropical Storm is nearby. And as for anyone thinking about going out boating... think again. Save the boat for another day and go see a movie. Literally "save the boat" it's going to be a long summer, go to the movies and take the boat out another day!

It is possible that if Alberto WRAPS up TIGHT into a strong Tropical Storm that the associated weather won't bother as many people over a wider area. But the tides and waves will still be strong so be warned danger and trouble are out there where ever Alberto goes... trouble follows. Note even the WIND will be strong far from the center of Alberto as long as Alberto stays Subtropical. 

I'll update the blog early Saturday Evening as I am offline on Saturday for the Jewish Sabbath. It's just the way I roll and it gives me a chance to catch my breath and breathe a bit so I am better at doing what I do the other six day of the week. Works for me. In the meantime, in between time please follow the following people who I follow and are a great, diverse source of tropical information.

@tropicalupdate www.spaghettimodels.com

www.hurricanecity.com

www.crownweather.com

www.windy.com

http://canetalk.com

https://dabuh.com @dadabuh on Twitter

@crankywxguy on Twitter http://www.stormhamster.com/resource.htm

Many other great sources I'll share but those are my go to sources for fast reliable information.

Some thoughts from around Twitter are shown below. Voices worth listening to...

Phil Klotzbach is awesome. 

He knows hurricanes. 

He knows hurricane history.

He knows the Appalachian Trail.

DaBuh knows..

Florida impacts shown here:

Stay tuned.

I may do a fast update around 6 PM.

Other wise see you all Saturday Night.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

For a friend :)

UPDATED 11 PM WSW AGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE ---Irma ..Waiting on Recon. Cone Gets Closer to South Florida. Islands Main Concern & Then Bahamas... Landfall in US Cannot Be Ruled Out...

11 PM.

Cone

Experimental wind product.

For the arrival of winds vs "eye"

Watches and warnings.

Irma so far...

That's one huge dip.

A really deep dipper.

IN NC people are worried on Irma.

Yet Brad in Charlotte showed this tonight.

Even if there is a forecast turn...

It's too soon to rely on it.

So either way you have to prepare.

Oddly in NC Red Cross Officials are moving into place.

Yet when you watch the models....

... it's hard to understand how it misses Florida.

Time will tell.

Going to keep this short tonight. The new 11 PM didn't do much to allay the fears of people living in South Florida. Irma is currently a Major Hurricane AGAIN and AGAIN going WSW at 14 MPH. Compare and contrast with the 5 PM further below. It's often hard to understand how a storm going one way can make such a strong turn. The image below shows Matthew as a wave coming off the coast of Africa. He moved into the Eastern Caribbean and instead of dying thrived, exploded off the North coast of South America and ended up raining himself out over Eastern North Carolina. Storms do this and the stronger they get, the more intense the more they try to go North (if they can...) towards the poles.

Oh...there's other fish in the sea.

Ignoring them but candidates for Jose.

Going to sleep.

Going to try to go to sleep.

Enjoyed Mike's Facebook Live earlier.

Enjoyed Jim Williams program tonight.

Not enjoying Irma's incessant need to go WSW.

Again I wrote about storms that dip for a reason.

I'll update in the morning.

Much to say but gonna pray a bit.
I do that. 

You might want to also.

Some models show this stronger than Wilma..

Very strong... huge.

Are the  models right?

So many factors.

Up close......

Continue reading you have not so far today.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

* * *

Irma round in all directions.

Evacuating energy nicely.

Long, curved bands.

You may think looking at the image below "what's going on? Miami isn't in the cone?" and you would be correct. This is for arrival of winds out in advance of the eye of the storm. Shows Miami is currently forecast to get some weather (winds) from Irma. Remember the NHC only tracks the "center" of the hurricane. Hurricane Matthew touched the coast of Florida, the eye went over land, but because the "center" of the eye did not go over land it was not considered a "landfall" . . . 

Hey it is what it is... so be alert, be aware and be prepared and pray Irma sails past Miami the way Matthew did and our luck holds out. Still a ways a way. 

Cone.. moving closer every day.

Multiple views below:

Wind Probs go North to Cocoa Beach, FL.

They also show Tampa on the Fl W Coast.

Currently Irma is having some small problems with structure, the eye is tilted a bit as per recon information and it has been dealing with dry air most of the day. And yet it moves West like the Energizer Bunny steady as she goes. It is forecast to intensify in the very warm bathtub water of the Bahamas and be larger in size and stronger in strength. Note a forecast wind speed of 140 MPH. That could be conservative depending on a few things that may happen down the road.

Models from Spaghetti Models below.

Well Euro and GFS

A bit concerned on the image below.

It's an official gov product.

Shows Irma close to Florida.

But headed more towards Carolinas.

Maybe.

 Look how beautiful Irma is from the perspective of classic, text book banding, intense compact area of hurricane force winds and tropical storm force winds far from her center.

Irma reminds me of a Hurricane named Bonnie.

1998. Looked like it was moving towards Miami.

Then it slowed down in the Bahamas.

Bombed out strength wise.

Sat, spun like a dancer.

Eventually took off for NC.

Rob from Crown Weather has much to say.

He gives great info, people pay...

..to read.

Just showing a drop of what he is thinking below:

Agreed models go from bad to worse.

Worth remembering EURO ignores Florida.

GFS likes Florida.

As always most people trust the Euro the most.

The NHC Bottom Line below:

As sunsets on Irma we pause and ponder.

Think and wonder.

Worry and debate what to do.

It's so far away.

Another storm last year was similar.

If you take it from where it will be soon.

Look at the cone for MATTHEW.

Note NOT Irma.

Putting it here to see much they are alike in 2 days.

Recon shows a powerful hurricane.

The data from recon will be in the 11 PM.

That advisory should help more than the last.

The 5 PM was an extrapolation of the previous one.

Recon will answer many questions about Irma.

This is a great site for watching the Island's weather.

http://weathercarib.com/

Earlier I typed up a long post and lost it somehow. Really that never happens much these days. Can we blame it on the Mercury Retrograde please? I want a new computer. My fault but I still want one. 

Basically her concern is this..

When you live on a small island everything is different from living on the mainland. When the last boat comes in with supplies there are no more supplies until the hurricane is totally gone and the next boat can get in. Businesses and homes are often built on inclines meaning people have to put boards up over windows what are not on ground level sometimes 30 feet high. Water for washing comes from cisterns and when the pumps don't work because electricity is out; you have to carry the water up the old fashioned way. Everything is based on boats. There are no trucks bringing in supplies and there is no where to evacuate to often unless you fly out early before the planes leave your island for safety somewhere else. Islands often need an extra day to prepare for a hurricane; they can't wait to see if the storm is really coming the way many on land wait to do. It's a different world down there and 'WEATHER" aka "STRONG WEATHER" can arrive as well as swells way in advance of the actual landfall. 

I have friends and family in Miami. Miami is mostly out of danger and yet everyone is scared. Scared people panic shop and obsess over every model that shows Miami getting creamed. Hey some exist... some even get into the GOM, but most do not. 

MY thoughts would be everywhere from Charleston north to Norfolk need to pay close attention to Hurricane Irma. And, if things work out not right but the wrong way she may veer inland and keep going further than Matthew did when it hugged the coast. I would be a bit more worried from say WPB to the Cape as a secondary target if something drastically changes with Harvey and the steering currents. Main concern SC/NC... secondary FL and please remember the ISLANDS are in the path and it may take a strong swipe at the Virgin Islands.

She seems to have made the turn and is no longer going WSW but moving West as I type this and parts of South Florida are in the NRL grid. I would guess when you wake up in the morning South Florida may be touching the cone. The infamous cone, that changes often just a bit in the 4 and 5 day. 

Putting this image up here to remind you where the real hurricane winds are with Irma. She looks so huge at times and yet the cloud cover doesn't all have the real hurricane force winds.

When NWS Forecast Discussion mentions Irma..

..pay attention.

Miami

Raleigh

I'll update at the top with important info.

And the 11 PM.

So please check back later.

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

Because I like to show it.

Canadian Tracking Map.

Does it make that forecast turn?

Hurricanes love playing chicken with Miami.

Jim Williams does great discussion in Youtube.

He picks apart the models with perfection.

He watches more than EURO and GFS.

It's worth your time to sit and watch.

Rather than worry and obsess. 

Pay attention and get some perspective.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps Again I will update later tonight with more information at the top.